Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, July 30

DAVE COKIN

CINCINNATI AT SAN DIEGO
PLAY: SAN DIEGO +120

At first glance, it probably seems easy to back the Reds here. Anthony DeSclafani still hasn’t lost a decision, and he’s had several good outings for Cincinnati. On the flip side, Christian Friedrich has not been effective for San Diego and he’s really not a guy who generates much confidence.

But all that is in the betting line, which as always is weighted heavily based on the starting pitchers. That’s where I think we garner some value here. The fact remains Cincinnati is an awful road team. They’re 17-33 away from home, and even with a good starting pitcher on the hill, I find it really tough to justify a team that inept on the road laying this much chalk.

It’s also worth noting that the Reds have not produced a whole lot of offense when facing southpaws on the road, so maybe we can get a handful of okay frames out of Friedrich tonight.

No matter how you slice it, this is the worst team in baseball in net runs (-137 for this season) spotting what I feel is an overly generous price on the road, and I’m comfortable with fading the Reds here. I’ll gulp with Friedrich and will back the Padres.

Sleepyj

Baltimore +1.5 -125

I find some value here with the O's getting the RL....Baltimore pitching has been rather good as of late and they are playing a ton of under games...Bluejays can be scary at times, but the O's know Happ...He had one of his worst games of the year Vs. Baltimore...I wouldn't rule out a win here for the O's and this series is a big series..Balitmore coming off a loss might come to tee off here today...Gallardo goes for the o's and the Bluejays haven't seen him since early June...Gallardo is a walk machine, but my feeling is he comes into this game looking to limit walks...Therefore he will be much more patient..He struggles with that and getting behind in counts has hurt him..If he is relaxed and looking to make pitches, it could lead to a solid outing..I trust the o's bullpen here vs. toronto...O's will get off this losing streak and it might just come tonight...Line looks off IMO and getting +1.5 with a good ball club is worth a shot here.

Stephen Nover

Angels +120

The last time Hector Santiago faced Boston was at Fenway Park on July 2. The Angels won, 21-2. Now the Angels are home, where they have won seven of the last eight times, and have Santiago on the mound. Yet they opened underdogs to the Red Sox and Drew Pomeranz.

Wrong favorite.

Pomeranz has turned the corner this season helped by developing a knuckle-curve ball. But Pomerantz already has exceeded his career-high in innings pitched for a season and has found it difficult since coming to Boston giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits - including three homers - and four walks during his two Red Sox starts spanning nine innings. That translates to a 7.00 Boston ERA. Pomeranz is at 111 innings pitched. He had never exceeded 97 innings in a season entering this year.

Santiago, by contrast, is pitching his best ball going 6-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his last eight starts. The lefty has a 1.48 ERA this month. He has a 2.97 lifetime ERA against the Red Sox in seven appearances, including six starts.

Boston's offense is much less deadly on the road where its OPS going into this series was .785 compared to .862 at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are 16-35 the last 51 times they've gone against a southpaw on the road, including losing the last three as road chalk to a lefty starter.

The Red Sox halted a four-game losing streak by beating the Angels Friday night. You almost need an asterisk, though, by that game since the Angels were forced to trot Tim Lincecum to the mound again. Prior to last night, the Angels had won seven in a row at Angels Stadium and also had won five in a row at home versus Boston.

The Red Sox could manage only one run against a washed-up Jered Weaver and four Angels relievers during the first game of this series on Thursday. Now they get Santiago not Lincecum.

Wrong favorite.

Bob Harvey

Colorado at New York
Play: Colorado +130

The surging Colorado Rockies try for their fourth straight victory when they visit the New York Mets at Citi Field where the Mets and Bartolo Colon are -135 moneyline favorites over the Rockies and Jorge De La Rosa. Colorado has won the first two games of the series to extend its winning streak while New York has dropped three in a row.

The Rockies (50-52, 25-26 road) captured Friday night’s contest downing the Mets 6-1. Carlos Gonzalez had a three-run homer and an RBI double while Charlie Blackmon had four hits. Tyler Chatwood worked seven strong innings to pick up his 10th win.

The Mets (53-48, 27-23 home) haven’t had a problem with their starting rotation which has allowed just eight runs over the past five games. However Colon will be pitching on fewer than four days' rest for the first time since 2005. Colon (9-5, 3.35 ERA) beat St. Louis last time out by giving up one run and three hits over seven innings. That continued a pattern of alternating good and bad starts. De La Rosa (6-7, 5.70 ERA) was rock solid in his last outing holding Baltimore to one earned run in 6.1 innings of work.

The Rockies have won seven of their last eight games but are a dreadful 17-40 in their past 57 against the Mets. NY is 8-2 in Colon’s last 10 starts.

The UNDER is 19-7 in Colorado’s last 26 road games while New York is 18-6-2 to the low side in its past 26 outings.

Marc Lawrence

Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -167

Edges - Blue Jays: J.A. Happ 8-0 with 2.55 ERA last eight overall team starts; and 8-2 in day team starts this season. Orioles: Yovanni Gallardo 6/94 ERA away as opposed to 3.35 ERA home this season; and visiting team 3-9 in Gallardo’s starts this season. With Happ in strong KW form with 31 Ks and 4 BBs in his last four starts, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.

Rob Vinciletti

Pirates vs. Brewers
Play: Pirates -155

The Pirates fit a solid 81% MLB Database system that plays on road favorites off a road favored loss, scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits vs an opponent off a home dog win scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits if both teams had 0 errors. The Pirates are averaging over 5 runs the past week and have played well winning 14 of 21 in July. Milwaukee has lost 11 of 14 as a home dog in this range and 31 of 48 vs winning teams. Chase Anderson and his 4.44 home Era is on the mound and he has a 5.89 era vs the Pirates. Tailion goes for Pittsburgh and he was solid in a 6 inning 1 run stint earlier in the season. He has a solid 2.50 road era and has won 5 of 7 this season. Look for the Pirates to win this one.

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves -127

After splitting the first two games of this home series versus Philly, I like Atlanta in the rubber match at Turner Field tonight. Julio Teheran (3-8, 2.71 ERA) toes the rubber and in his last game went four scoreless innings and gave up 3 hits. He has had quite a run in the last month as he hasn't allowed a run in four of his last six starts. In his last two games he pitched 11 scoreless innings total and gave up six hits. Philadelphia hands the ball to Jeremy Hellickson (7-7, 3.65 ERA) who has also had an amazing month as he has allowed just one run in five of his last six starts. He has also been effective on the road giving up just one run total and six hits in 12 innings pitched. He pitched six scoreless innings and gave up one hit in his last start. The Phillies have dropped three of their last four games and scored a total of two runs in the losses.

Bruce Marshall

Colorado at New York
Pick: Colorado

The Rockies are hot and have climbed within 5 games of an NL wild card berth after Friday's 6-1 win at Citi Field.. meanwhile the Mets are fading as their offense continues to sputter. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has had only one bad start (July 20 vs. the Rays) in his last seven outings and the Rocks will be catching Bartolo Colon, who has allowed six runs twice in his last four starts, on a season-low three days between starts.

Jim Feist

Red Sox at Angels
Pick: Over

Boston has the top offense in baseball in runs, on base percentage and slugging. The Over is 23-10-1 against a losing record, as well as 23-8 over versus the AL West. They are not a great road team because of suspect pitching and Drew Pomeranz has not been impressive with his new team, allowing 12 hits and 7 runs in 9 innings. Hector Santiago goes for LA with a 4.28 ERA, walking 51 in 115+ innings. He has a 5.82 ERA at home and the over is 9-4 when he starts. LA is home with an offense that is picking up and the Over is 18-7-2 in the Angels last 27 during game 3 of a series.

Larry Ness

Red Sox at Angels
Pick: Red Sox

Drew Pomeranz began his MLB career with the Oak A’s but was traded from Oakland to San Diego during the offseason. He developed a much-needed third pitch (a “cutter”) and he posted a 2.47 ERA in 17 starts for the Padres (he was 8-7 and the team 9-8 ). His strong first half earned him a NL All-Star team berth but he was traded to Boston on July 14, where in two starts he’s allowed seven ERs on 12 hits in just nine innings (7.00 ERA with an 0-1 record / team is 1-1).

Boston snapped a four-game slide with last night’s 6-2 win in Anaheim and tonight, Pomeranz will face one of the hottest pitchers in MLB. Hector Santiago is 9-4 with a 4.28 ERA on the season in 21 starts (team is 15-6) but he hasn't lost a decision since June 10, winning six consecutive decisions and five straight starts. He makes his final start of the month, already 5-0 with a 1.48 ERA in July. However, let’s NOT overlook that in 10 home starts, Santiago owns a 5.28 ERA or that Boston ranks first in runs scored (5.61 per), as well as in BA (.289) and OPS (.830).

The bet here says that Pomeranz earns his first win as a Red Sox.

SPORTS WAGERS

UFC 201

D. Grabowski +122 over A. Hamilton

Here we have an uninspiring battle between two 36-year old heavyweights that honestly don't have much to look forward to in terms of title aspirations. In fact, we can say with a solid level of confidence that these two do not even have a punchers chance of being relevant near the top of the heavyweight division ever. But that does not mean in any way, that UFC matchmakers will not use irrelevant heavyweight bouts to fill their diluted cards and add a level of variance in total man mass in a card that is dominated by fighters under 155lbs. This fight may end up being one of those ugly eye sores of two very large men, struggling for position and air, while working their asses off just to stay busy enough that they don't have to stand up again and re-engage in a risky exchange. Then there is the obvious appeal of one of these two getting lucky early on and scoring a devastating one punch KO. The odds makers are giving a decent edge to this fight surviving 1½-rounds and as this fight wears on, Damien Grabowski should have the advantage.

It’s now time to have a look at the line and the fighters themselves.

Anthony Hamilton enters this one following a lopsided loss to Shamil Abdurakhimov. While it remains to be seen exactly what the new Dagestan import brings into the heavyweight division, the fact of this matter is that Hamilton was out-pointed on a fight that never ended up on the mat. A look into the previous fight may be more telling as to why Hamilton is being favored in this bout. Daniel Omielanczuk was defeated in one of the aforementioned ugly heavyweight ground battles. This fight was dominated by Hamilton, as he outweighed his opponent by 25 lbs and was able to establish top control and never truly give it up. Recently, Omielanczuk defeated 50-win veteran Olineik, to extend his win streak to three following the loss to Hamilton. This string of success for Omielanczuk continues to add credibility to Hamilton's win just over a year ago. That play's very well into this angle, as someone else's adjustments are impacting the odds of a fight that has nothing to do with them. If Omielanczuk hasn't gone on a surge since his fight vs. Hamilton, there is no way Hamilton is favored here, because he simply is not very good.

Another key factor to consider here is that the “Polish Pitbull”, Damien Grabowski is a relative unknown. Grabowski made his UFC debut vs. future title contender Derrick Lewis, and he was welcomed violently with a quick first-round TKO loss. Grabowski was taken down early and then quickly beaten into a stoppage. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a debut, nor does it leave a positive impression on the betting public. Grabowski is now 1-2 in his last three fights, which also includes a loss to fellow M-1 challenge defector Marcin Tybura. Tybura was also thrown to the wolves in his UFC debut, losing by TKO to Timothy Johnson in April. While the newcomers have posted some poor results, they have also been pitted against ranked heavyweight opponents that are in spots to be contenders. Now that they have gotten their feet wet, they will both be given matchups more suitable to their elite M-1 talent level. Grabowski is a very diverse heavyweight and can win by submission, decision or knockout. He has 11 submission wins, six TKO's, and three decision wins. Expect the decision column to increase as he continues to fight in the UFC.

One major factor that also needs to be considered when looking into this line is the posted bio weight for Grabowski compared to his actual weigh in amount. Grabowski was supposed to be surrendering over 20 lbs to Hamilton, as his normal fight weight hovers around 240. However, it is evident that the Polish Pitbull has been bulking up as he came into the weigh ins jacked, registering in at 256, just three pounds lighter than (what was thought to be) the much heavier Hamilton. This added weight isn't sluggish either, as it is clear Grabowski packed on a lot of muscle ahead of his Second UFC appearance. Perhaps the loss to Lewis was a motivating factor for a man finally cracking the big leagues and being taken out early. He now he looks primed to get his first tally in the win column in the UFC.

This line has been influenced heavily by previous opponent's results, a perceived weight difference and the relatively unknown that is the Polish Pitbull but we’re suggesting that the wrong fighter is favored here and we will play the underdog accordingly.

F. Rivera +150 over Erik Perez

This line opened up without a clear favorite, and with the heavy money coming in on Erik Perez, the lean on Rivera has become a must play. This movement is all based on perception and recent results and while the line opened up as a coin flip, the line now indicates that Perez has a much better chance than Rivera and that is simply not the case.

Perez opened up his UFC account with three consecutive wins and has since alternated loss/win over his past four, amassing a 5-2 UFC record. The 26-year-old striker showcased his potential is his first fight, dominating a first round submission win over John Albert in 2012. John Albert is so insignificant that he doesn't even have a photo on UFC.com, and they have had over four years to add one. Fights two and three resulted in two first round TKO wins for Perez over Ken Stone and Bryan Bloodworth. These two fighters haven't fought in the UFC at all since 2012, and are clearly not good enough to be given another chance following their losses to Perez. Now that those are out of the way, the 5-2 record is actually 2-2 after the dissection. Perez has collected two wins over mediocre talent in the past 2½-years and has demonstrated decent enough abilities to stay employed, and maybe with a couple wins over greater talent, he could emerge into a ranked fighter one day. However, this pick is much more about the perception of “Cisco” Rivera than it is about Perez.

Francisco Rivera enters this fight in a funk, losing four of his last five fights. While Perez has been taking on mediocre talent and fellow prospects getting his feet wet, Rivera has been taking on elite competition. Over the past two years, Rivera has done battle with Bantam weight contender Urijah Faber, Bantam weight contender Jon Lineker, and fellow flyweight veteran Brad Pickett. All three of those fights turned into losses for Rivera, but he was completely robbed in his fight against Pickett, losing a split decision to the judges, in a bout that saw him land 30 more significant strikes. The third round of that fight was the last image we have of Rivera, which saw Pickett lying on Rivera and staying just busy enough not to have the fight stood up, where Rivera most likely would have completed his striking oriented decision victory. Losing to Faber and Lineker is nothing to be ashamed about for Rivera, as it is clear that he does not belong in the same class as those two. However, Perez is nowhere near that level of competition. Sandwiched in the smattering of losing is Rivera's lone victory in the past two years, which was a showcase of his one-punch power, earning a TKO win over Alex Caceres. Caceres is much further along in his journey than Perez is and can boast a much more impressive resume as well.

This fight has the potential to be the fight of the night, and in a flyweight, in a striker vs. striker matchup, expect firework flurries early and often. While the younger Perez should have more in the tank as the fight enters round three, Rivera packs much more power in his fists, and the fight may either have already been determined by Round 3 before it goes to the score cards or Rivera may have ended it with one punch. The general perception is that Perez is a blue chip prospect, much younger, and coming off of a win, where Rivera is eight years older, mired in a 1-4 funk, and is at the tail end of his career. Tough to argue that the career paths are heading in opposite directions but Perez is taking a massive leap up in competition here and Rivera will be very motivated after the judge snub from his last fight. When this fight opened up around a pick’em, perhaps it was a pass in terms of betting it but now that the line has shifted so aggressively, this is a play we must make based on the great gift of value.

Kowalkiewicz +200 over Namajunas

Rose Namajunas is the UFC's current darling at 115 LBS, a crown she choked away from Paige VanZant last December. Namajunas has four official fights in the UFC and competed with Carla Esparza for the promotion's first Strawweight (115 LB) Championship at the end of The Ultimate Fighter 20. Rose entered that fight as a small pooch and was submitted by rear-naked choke in the third round. For her rebound fight, Namajunas finished an overwhelmed Angela Hill with a knee to the body as a -350 favourite. That gimme fight set up Namajunas to be the fall girl for mainstream star Paige VanZant.

As is often the case, the UFC's best-laid plans go awry when the cage door closes. Rose finished VanZant with a rear-naked choke in the fifth round of their main event tilt. It was a high profile win for Namajunas, who actually entered the fight as a +125 underdog. The price on VanZant that night was greatly inflated for a number of reasons including her opponent being the most recognizable woman in the division by far. Rose beat the face of the franchise and all that victory did was inflate her asking price at the window.

In her last fight at UFC on FOX 19, Namajunas avenged her first loss to Tecia Torres in a close decision. Namajunas opened as a -140 favourite for that fight and was hammered all the way up to -200 with her new found notoriety and a co-main event slot on free TV. In her post fight interview, she was very emotional when revealing she had thoughts of quitting the sport during that very tough training camp. Straw-weight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk recently questioned Namajunas's mental state saying, “her head is not really on point, she's not that strong mentally”. Not very high praise from the most dominant woman in the division. Namajunas puts on a real “tough girl” image that is often cringe worthy to watch and goes by the nickname “Thug”. We can't help but wonder if maybe she's overcompensating for something.

Her opponent, Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters this fight at 9-0 including a 2-0 start to her UFC career. We love this matchup for Kowalkiewicz, as she comes into this bout as a relative unknown. In her first fight for the organization at UFC on FOX 17 against Randa Markos, Kowalkiewicz closed as a +140 pooch. She is primarily a fast moving striker who doesn't like to stand still. She rejected Markos's takedown attempts and was able to gain dominate position multiple times after a scramble on the mat. Karolina got the unanimous decision and for her next fight the UFC put her power punching to the test when she faced a tough out in Heather Jo Clark, who has never been finished in her 12-fight career. Kowalkiewicz threw everything but the kitchen sink at Clark and won by unanimous decision as a big 3-1 favourite. She now goes from a 3-1 favourite to a 2-1 dog and the latter is not warranted.

We expect Namajunas will come out and try to dictate the pace early. She’ll try to get a takedown to set up a submission but Karolina is a smart fighter and should be able to fend her off with her strong counter-punching and takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz only gets stronger as the fight goes on and she has a way of mentally breaking down her opponents, which does not bode well for Rose Namajunas. The total in this three-round fight is o2½ -262, which strongly suggests it is going the distance. That also bodes well for this dog, in what we’re calling the biggest overlay on the card.

Oskeim Sports

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto southpaw J.A. Happ is having the best month of his career, posting an incredible 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.99 FIP and 2.82 xFIP in 24.1 innings of work. Those results are further supported by a 32.6% K% (11.47 K/9), a 6.3% BB% (2.22 BB/9), a 26.3% K-BB% and a 0.37 HR/9 rate. Happ has also pitched well at home this season where he owns a 3.22 ERA with a 3.60 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP (22.2% K%; 7.0% BB%).

After enjoying a phenomenal second half with the Pirates last season under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage, Happ has continued those gains in 2016 despite facing American League bats (and a designated hitter). The 33-year-old posted decent but unspectacular numbers in the first three months of this season (3.70 ERA & 86 ERA- and 104 FIP-), but he has recently returned to what made him so successful in Pittsburgh.

In four starts in July against Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland and Seattle, Happ has posted a 1.48 ERA and a1.99 FIP in 24.1 innings. His strikeout rate has sky-rocketed in those starts (32.6% K%), which is impressive in light of his career 19.8% strikeout rate. So, what has changed for the veteran hurler? In short, he has relied more on his four-seamer, which he threw 72% of the time in Pittsburgh at the insistence of pitching coach Ray Searage.

According to Baseball Prospectus, of the 85 starting pitchers to throw a minimum of 500 four-seamers in 2016, only two have a higher swinging strike rate than Happ on that pitch. Equally important, Happ is posting contact and strikeout rates similar to those he garnered in the second half of 2015 in Pittsburgh.

Ready to be blown away? If you take Happ's 11 starts in Pittsburgh and combine them with his four starts this month, you get the following stat line: 87.2 IP, 1.75 ERA, 29.1% K%. Wow! Meanwhile, Baltimore right-hander Yovani Gallardo toes the rubber with a 5.37 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season, including a 6.94 ERA and 1.74 WHIP on the road. Gallardo also owns a 5.22 FIP and a 5.65 xFIP away from home, together with a really bad 3.1 K-BB%. The 30-year-old has also posted a 5.52 FIP and a 5.87 xFIP in July, together with a 2.4% K-BB%.

With Toronto standing at 17-5 in Happ's last 22 starts, including 11-1 in his last 12 home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts in game 2 of a series, take the Blue Jays and invest with confidence.

Brad Diamond

Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -172

As we stated yesterday inside our game of the week, the Orioles are a different unit when on the road as documented by their 1-6 mark L7 on foreign soil. They are now 22-55 in Toronto off that 6-5 loss yesterday. Today the Jays use lefty Happ (13-3, 3.27) who has been super of late with a 2-0 record and a 1.56 ERA L3 times out. Toronto comes in a perfect 5-0 in game #2 sets and 11-1 with Happ at home. Gallardo (3-2, 5.37) of Baltimore has been shoddy on the with a 1-2 mark and ballooning 6.94 ERA. So, we are backing the Blue Jays who show 44-18 at home.

Alex Smart

Reds vs. Padres
Play: Reds -120

The Reds came out in took a 6-0 win in the opener of this series vs the Padres, and looks like a viable option on value line again this Saturday. The Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is 6-0 on the season, along with a stable 3.09 ERA and won his fourth consecutive start in his last turn. On June 26th he owned the Padres batting order allowing just 5 hits in 8 innings of quality work. Considering the Padres starter Friedrich hasn’t completed six frames recently, it wont be a stretch to believe he could be hammered and exit early again. Friedrich is 0-4 over his last five starts with a 7.72 ERA.It must be noted that the Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. National League Central and are 1-4 in Friedrichs last 5 starts.