Chase Diamond
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays
This game has the 58-44 Orioles and the 58-45 Toronto Blue Jays. Baltimore although in first place really are in the same spot as last season in need of starting pitching. Yovani Gallardo goes for them today he has been pretty brutal 3-2 with a 5.37 ERA. In stark contrast Toronto's J.A. Happ has been under the radar great at 13-3 with a 3.27 ERA. Jays won last night and I expect a blowout win today. Orioles have the second worst team batting average versus left handed starters at just .238. Baltimore also struggles when playing in Toronto as they are just 22-53 29% last 75 games. We are taking a high juice big public play here but I think it is worth the big juice and should win easy.
Scott Spreitzer
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
Play: Cincinnati Reds -127
Cincinnati has won eight of its last 11 games and Anthony DeSclafani has won his last four starts and six of his last seven, which included six quality starts. The right-hander is 6-0 with a 3.09 ERA and he already has thrown eight shutout innings against San Diego this season. The Padres are 24th in the majors with a home OPS of .702 and have lost eight of their last 11 home games. Christian Friedrich is 4-6 with a 5.00 ERA and has given up 33 runs (30 earned) his last 34 1/3 innings and didn't make it to the fourth inning in San Diego's 10-6 win at Washington on Sunday after allowing five runs and six hits. Friedrich had lost his previous four starts. Look for Cincy to make it two straight over the Padres.
Buster Sports
Phillies at Braves
Play: Under 7.5
Phillies send RH Jeremy Hellickson (7-7, 3.65 ERA) to the mound tonight. In the month of July he is 2-1 with a 1.97 ERA with a WHIP of 0.80. In his last start against Atlanta in 6 innings pitched he allowed 1 earned run. The Braves send RH Julio Teheran (3-8, 2.71 ERA) to the hill and he has pitched excellent for the Braves unfortunately he gets no run support. In his last 3 starts he has a 2.65 ERA with a WHIP of 1.118. In starting against the Phillies he has a 6-3 record and a 2.26 ERA with a WHIP of 0.938. Both of these pitchers are hot of late and we see this game being a pitching duel. So lets get the job done with the Phillies/Braves game under the 7 1/2 runs.
Carmine Bianco
Sporting Lokeren at St. Truidense
Play: Under 2.5
These sides have met 5 times over the past year with only 1 of those going over this total and three ending in draws and Saturday's game line is priced pretty much in line with what could be the fourth draw in 6 matches. I'll take the Under here and if you're looking for another play you might want to consider a Draw at somewhere in the range of +245.
David Banks
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins
Pick: Miami Marlins-109
Aledmys Diaz homered, doubled, and drove in three runs to lead St. Louis to a 5-4 win over Miami in the first game of a four-game series with the Marlins. The Cardinals, who have won three of four heading into Friday night’s matchup, will pit Jaime Garcia (7-7) against Miami’s Jarred Cosart.
Cosart, just 0-1 on the season, has struggled all year. He started three games in April, gave up 13 earned runs, and was promptly sent down to Triple-A. Cosart struggled there as well posting a 4.09 ERA but made a quality start on Monday against the Phillies. In five innings, Cosart gave up just three hits and no runs. He was not involved in the decision.
On Saturday, Cosart will face a hot Cardinals lineup led by Diaz, who hits .313. Matt Holliday also homered in Thursday’s game and now has 18 on the season. The leftfielder is batting .235 and also leads the team in RBIs with 59. Rightfielder Stephen Piscotty bats .286 with 14 homers and 58 RBIs and Yadier Molina is batting .270 for St. Louis, which is third in the majors in runs scored.
Miami, like St. Louis, is currently second in their division, the AL East. The Marlins are five games behind Washington and are fighting off a challenge from the Mets who are just a game and a half behind Miami. Giancarlo Stanton continues to lead the Marlins offense. Stanton has 22 home runs and 59 RBIs and has been hot lately batting .393 (11-for-28) over the last seven days.
Ichiro Suzuki recorded a double in Thursday’s game and now needs just two more hits to reach 3,000 for his career. Martin Prado (.325), Christian Yelich (.316), and J.T. Realmuto (.312) all bat over .300 for the Marlins, who are second in MLB in batting average (.272).
Bruce Marshall
Phillies +118
We have plenty of respect for Atlanta starter Julio Teheran and his 2.71 ERA but let's not forget that the Braves have still lost in 7 of his last 10 starts, And going against Atlanta when favored is usually a good idea. The Phils are putting Jeremy Hellickson in the trade window and he could be rewarded with a deal to a contender by Monday's deadline. Hellickson has bene sharp in recent starts, allowing just 7 ER in five July starts.
John Fisher
Phillies at Braves
Play: Phillies
Chest betTwo Aces on very bad teams face each other with SP Hellickson versus SP Teheran. This could be SP Tenerans last ga,e of he gets traded. The Umder total could also be a great play. Hellickson has given up 19 hrs and that is his Achilles heel. However, when you face the Braves one can't be too concerned on the HR ball. Julio is coming off extra days rest because he tweaked his back in no's last outing. This concerns me enough to go against him here as a slight Dog.
Scott Rickenbach
Baltimore at Toronto
Pick: Over 9
With this total dropping down to a 9 after opening at a 9.5 I feel the over is absolutely worth a look in this game. Yesterday the Orioles broke their long "under" streak and the over is now 12-5 this season in Baltimore's road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, the O's are 17-10 to the over in day games this year and 11-5 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a road dog of +150 to +175. The Blue Jays are 10-5 to the over in Saturday games this season.
Brandon Lee
Rangers -116
Texas is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is on a complete free-fall at the moment, as they have dropped 8 of their last 10. The Rangers on the other hand have won 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. Texas will send out Martin Perez, who is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 10 home starts. The Royals will counter with Ian Kennedy, who is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 road starts and has a 7.37 ERA in his last 3 outings overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Pirates -141
I feel like this is more than a fair price to back the Pirates on the road against the Brewers. Pittsburgh will have a huge edge on the mound in this one with emerging youngster Jameson Taillon facing off against the struggling Chase Anderson of Milwaukee.
Taillon has a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 starts and that includes a strong outing against the Brewers, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings of work. As for Anderson, he's struggling just to last 5 innings. In fact, he hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in 7 straight starts. He's got a ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 19 starts and is really struggling with his command right now, walking 13 in his last 4 outings.
Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4, but that's typically when it goes bad for the Brewers, as they are just 3-13 on the season after a 3-1 stretch. Milwaukee is also just 5-20 as a home dog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
Ricky Tran
Rockies vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
Reason For Pick: The Rockies who have won 8 of their last 9 games send Jorge DeLarosa to the mound with a 6-7 record and a 5.70 ERA. He has been very consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 games and in his last 2 starts, pitched 12.1 innings and gave up 3 earned runs and 12 hits. Part of that success has been on the road where in his last 5 road games has allowed 3 runs or less while his last 2 losses there the Rockies scored a grand total of 1 run. The Mets who have lost 4 of their last 5, have struggled to score runs of late. They've managed just one run in each of their last two games, and they rank dead last in the major leagues with .238 team batting average.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +200 over LOS ANGELES
Scott Kazmir is 9-3 after 20 starts to go along with 117 K’s in 110 innings. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again that Scott Kazmir is on the verge of some blowupsbecause he gets progressively worse after the first time through the order. He has a xERA of 4.88 the second time through and a 5.21 the third time through. Kazmir’s 41%/21%/38% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is exactly the type of profile that gets blown up from time to time because of the number of fly-balls surrendered. That puts him at the mercy of hr/f %. Kazmir’s hr/f rate is 15%, which in turn makes Kazmir’s profile a very risky one to be spotting a price like this with. Kazmir has been saved by a friendly strand rate of 79% over his past six starts. Because we can't bet on that happening again, neither can we expect anything near a 3-ERA again over his next six starts. Rising xERA trend combined with a BIG second half skills erosion last year put even a 4.00 ERA at risk. He'll struggle to return a profit the rest of the way. With a takeback like this, we’re more than willing to gamble that Kazmir isn’t as sharp today.
Braden Shipley debuted last week against the Brewers in Milwaukee and his pitching line looks pretty ugly. Shipley walked four and struck out four in 5.1 innings after allowing six runs. He left with an ERA of 10.80 but it’s not as bad as it seems. Five of the six runs came via the home-run. Shipley gave up solo shots in the first and third innings, but managed to battle his way into the bottom of the sixth with the score tied 3-3. A three-run shot in the sixth ended his night but that was in Milwaukee and four of the eight hits he surrendered were either a seeing eye-single or bloop single. Results notwithstanding, Shipley was actually quite impressive with his poise, mound presence and pitch selection. He’s a former first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has three average to above average offerings. His sinking 91-96 mph fastball looked good versus the Brewers. Shipley works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. We never put a lot of weight on one outing but this market is and that’s a mistake. Shipley may indeed get whacked again but this kid is high on our radar for the future because we love his arsenal and quiet confidence. He’s going to be a good one but nobody knows it yet. We’re investing now.
Washington +112 over SAN FRAN
Jake Peavy is favored here because why? The Giants are losing at the same pace that the Twinkies were losing on earlier in the year. The Giants have two wins over their past 13 games. One win was against the Yankees and the other was against the Reds. Jake Peavy may be the least reliable of all their starters so asking him to stop the bleeding doesn’t seem reasonable. There's little in Peavy's current skill set to suggest anything but a potential blowup. If Peavy does well here, it will be luck driven. His control and home park keeps him in games from time to time but AT&T in the afternoon is not a pitcher’s park like it is at night. Peavy’s profile is highlighted by a nosediving strikeout rate and three straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA. This year, Peavy’s ERA/xERA split is 5.42/5.79. That he and the Giants are favored over the Nationals is somewhat preposterous.
Reynaldo Lopez makes just his second start of the year, which is the real reason the Nats come in as the pooch. We say, Bring it On”. Lopez has filthy stuff. He struck out nine batters in his first start in just 4.2 innings but folks will see his 11.97 ERA and back off. We see his xERA of 2.32 in that aforementioned start to go along with a lot of bad luck. Lopez continues to throw mid-90s heat while knocking out hitters with a plus curveball and potent change-up. Given the ease in his improved delivery, he’s able to command the plate with his 95-98 mph fastball and can induce swings and misses with his breaking ball. Lopez reached triple digits in his brief stint in the Futures Game and he’s got terrific arm strength in his smallish 6’0” frame. When he’s on his game, he can be downright filthy. Because of his size, there are slight concerns about his plane to the plate, but his arm speed and double-plus fastball more than make up for these question marks. This kid is raw but he’s hugely talented. In terms of value, the Nats may offer the best on today’s card.
CLEVELAND -1½ +116 over Oakland
Josh Tomlin is one of those rare finesse right-handers that attempts to keep hitters off balance the entire game. It often works. Tomlin also brings his elite control, as evidenced by his 12 walks in 114 innings this season. To score on Tomlin, the A’s are going to have to string together some hits or take Tomlin deep. Should Tomlin give up some runs, it isn’t likely to matter because the Indians figure to tee off on Dillon Overton and that’s what this wager is based on.
There is a relatively new metric in baseball which measures the speed of balls being hit out of the park. Another term being used is “exit velocity”. Along with that metric are other metrics that include average distance of balls in play, average speed of balls in play, average speed of grounders and average speed of line-drives. It’s actually a very significant metric because it reveals the pitchers that get squared up on often. There are a bunch of relievers that are near or at the top of the list of pitchers that are getting squared up on often but we’re not interested in relievers. Some of the names of the starters that are getting whacked are Kyle Lohse, Paul Clemens, Erik Johnson, Joe Kelly, Phil Hughes, Adam Morgan, John Danks and Justin Nicolino among others. What those pitchers have in common is that they are either used to riding buses or have been cut, traded or benched more than once.
At the top of the list of starters getting rocked is Dillon Overton. His average distance of balls in play is 270 feet. That is the highest mark among starters and it's a remarkable number. All of Dillon’s other metrics in this “new-found” group of metrics are weak and this is precisely the park and team that figures to expose that in a big way. Dillon’s groundball/fly-ball split is 22%/55%. His hr/f rate is 19%. He has a WHIP of 1.93 so when someone goes deep on him, there is very likely going to be men on base. Dillon is in because Rich Hill is out. He’s pitched all of his games thus far at pitcher’s parks with two games at home and one on the road at the Big A in Anaheim. After those three starts, his ERA is 8.40 with an oppBA of .358. He’ll now make his first start at a hitter’s park and we can’t imagine for a second that it’s going to turn out well for this batting practice machine.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals -110
I like the Cardinals again today. Colin Rea will get his first start since the trade and I am sure coming across country will effect him in his first start. Jaime Garcia pitches well against the Marlins and is great at making batters hit the ball down on the ground which means a lot of double plays. St. Louis is just a better team with a really hot offense that can go deep at any time. I like them at even money.
Wunderdog
Astros vs. Tigers
Pick: Under 8.5
Detroit is a big park and the Astros are 12-4 UNDER the total after a defeat, plus 15-2 UNDER after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. They got clocked yesterday in a 14-6 rout by the Tigers. Detroit righty Justin Verlander (10-6, 3.64 ERA) has been on a roll his last five starts, with a 3-0 record, a 1.60 ERA and 37 strikeouts after allowing one run in six innings of a 4-2 victory at Boston. Verlander has had his way with Houston, limiting them to a .203 batting average. Detroit is on a 13-4-1 run UNDER the total overall.
JACK JONES
Cincinnati Reds -113
The Cincinnati Reds are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. The San Diego Padres are going into the tank as they have been trading away a ton of players prior to the deadline and are just 3-8 in their last 11 contests.
Cincinnati has the clear edge on the mound in this one behind Anthony Desclafini, who is 6-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in nine starts. One of those starts came against San Diego on June 26 as Desclafini pitched 8 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory.
Christian Friedrich hasn't fared well at all this season, going 4-6 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 13 starts, 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in five home starts, and 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three outings. Friedrich has also posted an 8.79 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.
The Reds are 12-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Cincinnati is 4-0 in Desclafini's last four starts. The Padres are 0-6 in Friedrich's last six starts vs. NL Central opponents.