Scott Delaney
My free play is on the west coast, where I'm taking the Washington Nationals over the San Francisco Giants. And in this one, it's a must, you have to list Reynaldo Lopez over Jake Peavy.
The Nationals are scheduled to promote Lopez for his second career start, as he will fill in for the injured Joe Ross. In his debut, Lopez was tagged for six runs on 10 hits, but he also struck out nine. Something tells me this power pitcher will be out to dominate in this one.
Meanwhile, Peavy’s allowed just seven hits in his last two starts, but five of those have been home runs. He's allowed 10 runs since the All-Star break. I think the Nationals go crazy at the plate, giving Lopez run support, and they roll to the easy win.
1* NATIONALS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the Yankees and Rays.
I gave you this release as a premium play last night, and it was a winner, and today I will use the tried-and-true as my comp play.
With last night's Under, the Yankees have now played their last 14 games with just one of them going Over the total. Think about that....a 13-1 Under run for New York. Not only that but now 8 of the last 10 series meetings between the teams at Tropicana Field have landed Under the total between these two A.L. East rivals.
Last night's Under also moved the overall series numbers to 15-6-2 Under the past 23 meetings.
Tampa enters this one on a 16-4-2 Under run their last 22.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed just 3 runs over his last 12 innings since the All-Star break, and both of his starts have held Under the total.
Drew Smyly is coming off his best start of the season, a 6 inning turn against Oakland that saw only one run cross in a game that stayed Under the total.
The trends are overwhelming, Yanks-Rays Under.
5* N.Y. YANKEES-TAMPA BAY UNDER
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play is for the Pirates to cool down the Brewers.
Milwaukee won the opener last night, and have now won 4 of their last 5 games overall.
Pittsburgh will go with highly-touted rookie Jameson Taillon who was on the hill on July 19th when the Pirates won a 3-2 decision, but the rookie took a liner off of his face but did not even miss his next scheduled start.
Taillon is 2-1 in his first 7 major league starts, and better still, the Bucs are 5-2 when he takes the mound. His ERA is at an even 3 over his last 3 starts.
Chase Anderson will oppose with a 5-10 mark and an ERA over 5 for the season. Anderson snapped a 4 game losing streak his last time to the mound, and he was on the hill in a no-decision the game prior which happened to be a 9-5 Brewers win over the Pirates.
Pittsburgh evens the weekend set with the win tonight.
3* PITTSBURGH
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 92-76 run with free picks: Baltimore at TORONTO (-1.5, +115).
The STORYLINE in this game today - The fun continues in Toronto, as the battle for first place in the American League East takes center stage at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles meet on Saturday night. This is the first series between these two teams since the Blue Jays traveled to Baltimore for a three-game set from June 17-19, and Toronto opened with a win last night.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My money is on the home team to nab the second game, despite how well Baltimore has played, and the fact it is the first place team. Toronto is a 1/2-game back of the Orioles for first place in the division, and it is playing at home - that's dangerous. The Jays are catching Baltimore at the right time, as they've lost four in a row.
BOTTOM LINE is - Let me go even further with this one, as the Blue Jays had a day off Thursday, plus they sat several of their prime-time players during the series finale against the Padres on Wednesday. Talk about being rested and focused, this is a team well prepared for this series and weekend. Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.
1* TORONTO
Greg Shaker
Detroit -127
I'm not much on sharing lot's of STATS because everyone is smart enough to check on those and the fact is many don't really mean Crap in the overall scope of things. Recent Performance especially is overrated unless there is an underlying factor causing a difference in performance. But that's another conversation altogether. Meanwhile back in Detroit: Fiers is going to be a Good MLB Pitcher one day, and already displays "Good Stuff." Verlander already IS a Good MLB Pitcher. The Tigers are on somewhat of a roll, even their Pen is doing better work. They have a pretty good home mark, the Astros do not have a good road mark. The Tigers DESTROY Right Handed Pitching, especially in this Park. It's interesting to note that Detroit's Bullpen Work has been BETTER here at home than the Astros Pen Work while on the road. In fact while many continue to talk badly about Detroit's 2nd Line Pitching, they have been mostly solid here in Motown, displaying a 1.14 WHIP. Hey I just shared a STAT! Sorry about that. Our numbers show that Detroit should be about a -165 to -170 Fav in this contest but opened -140 and after drifting downward we have decided to grab it at this very favorable price..
Dave Essler
Giants -125
Seriously considering the over here as well - but FML for not getting 8 last night. Anyhow, Lopes has had one start, lasted four-plus innings - and was hammered at home by Los Doyas. Murphy is NOT in the lineup for the Nationals, whose bullpen has struggled of late. Contrarily - Hunter Pence is supposed to be activated and play today, and IMO it's HIM more than Posey, Belt, or whoever, that make that team go. Giants pen HAS been decent lately - no Wilson Ramos for the Nationals - at least not starting. Should make this even bigger, but OFW, Peavy is certainly capable of either explosion or implosion.