Free Picks for Saturday, July 8th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Strike Point Sports
San Diego at Philadelphia
Play: Philadelphia
Philadelphia and San Diego will head into the All-Star break with two of the worst records in all of baseball but someone has to win this game. Aaron Nola is starting to settle in for the Phillies after a rough start to his season. He has won his last three starts allowing just 3 runs while lasting at least 7 innings in each. The Padres have played .500 ball at home but they have struggled on the road going just 12-26 and Jhoulys Chacin is a prime example. Chacin has been really good pitching at home but is 2-5 with a 9.08 ERA on the road and I think the Phillies lineup will take advantage in this matchup. Philadelphia wins this one.
Alan Harris
Hamilton at Saskatchewan
Play: Saskatchewan -2.5
The Saskatchewan Roughriders will look for their first win of the season when they take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Taylor Field in Regina, SK on Saturday night. The Roughriders have posted a 3-1-1 ATS record in their last five Week 3 games and they have gone an excellent 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games overall going back to the middle of the 2016 season. The Tiger-Cats, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and they have failed to cover the number in four of their last five Saturday night games for whatever reason. They are also just 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record and they are an even worse 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Throw in the fact that the Roughriders are an impressive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against Hamilton and we’ll take them at the pick to so here to get the home win and cover.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox at Rays
Pick: Red Sox
Edges - Red Sox: Porcello 6-0 last 6 team starts during July… Rays: Cobb 1-5 home career team starts in this series… With the Porcello 5-1 in his last 6 team starts in this park, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Jim Feist
Red Sox at Rays
Pick: Rays
Boston continues its road trip with Rick Porcello (4-10, 5.01 ERA). He is 1-4 on the road and batters overall are hitting .303 off him. The Red Sox are 0-7 in Porcello's last 7 starts vs. the American League East. Tampa Bay is home ranked #10 in baseball in runs scored. Alex Cobb has a 3.13 ERA at home. The Rays are 9-4 in their last 13 home games, plus 8-3 against a righty.
Bruce Marshall
Brewers at Yankees
Pick: Brewers
Is anyone paying attention out there? We're talking about the wagering public, we suppose, though maybe we should look at the oddsmakers for continuing to ignore the Yankees' obvious slump, which has now reached 6-17 over their last 23 games. Do they bounce back on Saturday vs. the red-hot Brewers? Perhaps. But on principle, must back to Brew Crew at this price, especially since Harvard man Brent Suter was so effective in his last outing, allowing no earned runs and four hits on Monday vs. the Orioles. Meanwhile, Luis Severino has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts.
Dave Cokin
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Oakland
Chris Smith has been a fringe big leaguer for many years. He’s now 36 and over the course of his career, Smith has made a total of 63 big league appearances, all in relief. Tonight, Smith will make his first major league start as he takes on the Mariners. Smith has never been a hard thrower, and these days he barely touches 90, so don’t expect the old pro to blow away many Mariners. But this has to be a pretty exciting scenario for the vet and you can be sure that whatever is in his tank will be on display tonight. The Mariners will counter with impressive rookie Andrew Moore, who is looking very much like a guy with a chance to carve out a niche for himself in the Seattle rotation. On paper, Seattle has the unquestioned edge in this game. But betting baseball is about garnering line value, and I see this game being priced higher than it ought to be. In other words, if the game was pick ’em, I’d certainly be happy to bet the Mariners. But instead, we’re looking at Seattle currently spotting just short of -150, and by my calculations, that’s too much of an impost. Based on where it’s priced currently, I’d rather go hunting with the A’s as generously priced dogs.
SPORTS WAGERS
OTTAWA -4 over Toronto
The Argos are a mess on and off the field. They followed up a surprising Week 1 win over Hamilton with a 28-15 loss to the Lions that shouldn't have been that close. Ricky Ray, who impressed many with is career passing day in Week 1, looked pedestrian against the Lions throwing for 327 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Ray was also sacked four times and those shots will wear on his old bones. B.C.'s offense didn't wake up until the fourth quarter but when they did, the Argos boat was sunk. Toronto has benefited greatly from their two opponents crawling out of the gate and while B.C. recovered and whacked them, the Tigercats did not. They won't be so lucky today, as they visit TD Place in Ottawa where the Redblacks are eager to get their first win and that starts with a strong start.
Despite starting the season 0-1-1 there's a lot to like about the Redblacks. They have a legit starter at QB in Trevor Harris, who came over from the Argos before the 2016 season. Harris was Ray's protégé in Toronto, just one of the many storylines coming into this battle of Ontario. While Ray got the headlines after his Week 1 performance, Harris is the younger, hungrier and superior QB now. Harris had two huge games against the Stamps and the Redblacks were in a position to win both. Last week Harris threw for 425 yards and leads the league in passing yards with 890. He added four TD passes and three Ottawa receivers hit the 100 yard mark Week 2 in Calgary.
After two straight games against a quality team like the Stamps, the Redblacks are taking a huge step down in competition this week. The Argos are not ready for prime time and their issues off the field continue to be a huge distraction. Ottawa is laser focused on this game and its players and coaches are saying all the right things this week. They aren't just frustrated about not getting a win over the Stamps but the Redblacks haven't won a regular-season home game since September 23rd of last year. Unlike the Argos, Ottawa attracts a good crowd and TD Place should be ready to go off. Trends can be influential in the marketplace and the Argos recent success against the Redblacks will work in our favor here. Toronto has won five of its last seven games with Ottawa, but none of that matters today. The Redblacks are the superior team, at a short price, on their home turf. That's an offer we can't pass up.
Hamilton +101 over SASKATCHEWAN
The Roughriders have played two games and while they are 0-2, this market is quite aware that they could easily be 2-0 after a one-point loss to the Alouettes in their opener and an OT loss to the Blue Bombers last week. Roughies QB, Kevin Glenn also went off by throwing for 377 yards and four TD’s last week and that, too, sticks in the minds of the general public. Now, as a short -2½-point favorite, the nearly 2-0 Roughriders get the Tigercats at Mosaic Stadium and no team has come even close to looking as bad as the Ticats did in their Opening Day loss to the Argonauts. That has market appeal but not to us. You see, Saskatchewan found ways to lose against a couple of very average teams and perhaps even poor ones. They scored a mere 16 points on Montreal and allowed the Blue Bombers to rack up 43. Kevin Glenn is not going off for four TD’s and nearly 400 yards again. The Roughriders have the second best QB in this game, they have the second best coaching staff and they have also won just 10 of their last 47 meaningful games. Maybe a culture change is coming in Saskatchewan but until it happens, we’re not getting behind this team as the chalk.
Hamilton didn’t play last week but this market has been licking their chops to bet against them since witnessing that dreadful performance as a 3½-point favorite in Toronto on Opening Day. In that season-opening ugly loss to the Argonauts, the Tiger-Cats failed to protect their quarterback (Zach Collaros) or pressure Ricky Ray. Ray threw for a career-high 506 yards against the Tabbies and two Argos receivers dropped touchdown passes. Boy, was it ever a foul performance by a favored team against a hated rival. Now we get to take advantage of the market’s overreaction to Hamilton’s performance.
Pick any sport and then pick any day. You will see blowouts all the time but in football those blowouts are magnified because teams’ only play once a week and/or a handful of games all year. In regards to that abhorrent defeat, Hamilton has had to deal with it for not one week, but two. We guarantee that the Ticats can’t wait to get back on the field and we also guarantee they’ll be better. We’re not guaranteeing a victory but we’d be very surprised if they didn’t get it. Hamilton’s Week 1 performance means jack. They simply we’re ill-prepped to face a Toronto team that was well-prepped. Hamilton Coach, Kent Austin is known for his attention to details and almost always has his team focused and well-prepared. One can only imagine how livid Austin was in regards to his team’s effort. Losing is one thing but to get downright embarrassed to the highest degree is quite another. Hamilton now goes from a 3½-point choice in Week 1 to a 2½-point pooch in its next game against a lesser team and both were on the road. With 12 days to prepare and 12 days to stew in its own miserable performance, Hamilton will be ready here.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -1½ +153 over Baltimore
Adalberto Mejia takes on an Orioles offense that's below-average against LHP and last in OPS over the last seven days (.593). Mejia’s 55% first-pitch strike rate for the season sits in the bottom-15 among starters, but with the Orioles sitting 29th in BB%, the risk is less inflated. Frankly, we could not care less about Minnesota’s pitcher. The wager here is all about fading a Baltimore squad that has lost six in a row and seven of eight. The Orioles have allowed 44 runs against in those seven losses, they have the worst road record in the AL and they’ll now send out perhaps the league’s worst starter in Wade Miley.
Miley has an 11.69/7.71 ERA/xERA over his last five starts. He has an overall 47% first-pitch strike rate and has walked 16 batters over his past 22 frames. He has a 1.73 WHIP this season and a 2.55 WHIP over his last five starts. We’re not sure if there’s ever been a pitcher with a 2.55 ERA over a five-game span. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded every inning. Miley’s now going to take the mound today with zero confidence and heavily shell shocked. The Orioles will come to the park today almost knowing they cannot win with Miley on the hill. The Orioles need to regroup but that’s unlikely to happen until after the break, which cannot come soon enough for this profoundly damaged visitor.
Cincinnati +129 over ARIZONA
Taijuan Walker has a 2.96 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and has walked 11 batters in four games since returning from the disabled list. Walker's xERA however, is 4.51 and he’ll now face a Reds offense that has been stellar against RHP (.330 OBA, 7th) all season long. Also of concern is that Walker has a line-drive rate of 39% since returning, which is the worst mark in the game over any four-game stretch. Walker’s DL stint was caused by a blister. We all know how insistent those blister injuries can be and as a result, it is quite possible (and likely) that Walker has changed his grip on the baseball. What we know for sure is a 39% line-drive rate means he’s been very lucky since returning and the Reds offense is one that can do some serious damage.
Luis Castillo is three starts into his major league career and has had to endure a start in Washington, a start at home against the Brewers and finally a start in Colorado last time out. He’s been hurt by an awfully high and unlucky 38% hit rate, not to mention an unlucky 38% hr/f rate. The sample size is small (16 innings) but the numbers are out of whack and thus, a correction to the good is forthcoming because Castillo’s stuff is filthy and he’s one of the best breakout targets in the game. Castillo has whiffed 22 batters in 16 frames. His line-drive rate is the best in MLB at 11% but of course he does not qualify. Still, that is a significant number against three great hitting teams. Despite all the bad luck, Castillo’s EERA is 4.41 but his xERA is 3.15. This is a pitcher very high on our radar that we’re not going to miss out on when being offered prices like this. This is perhaps the biggest overlay on the board today and we’re on it.
Chicago -1½ +215 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-20 + 31.65 units
ROB VINCILETTI
Los Angeles vs. Texas
Play: Texas -150
Texas has won 10 of 14 as a home favorite in this range and LA is 0-3 on the road off a road loss by 5+ runs. Texas fits a solid 90% system that plays on division home teams off a home favored win by 5+ runs scoring 10 or more runs vs an opponent off a road loss by 5+ runs scoring 2 or less runs. LA is scoring 2.5 runs the past week and has Chavez and his bloated 6.36 road Era on the mound. Ross for Texas has a 2.20 Era in 5 starts vs the Angels. Look for Texas to take another tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
Toronto vs. Ottawa
Play: Ottawa -4
The Redblacks are the defending Grey Cup Champions and yet they're staring up in the standings at the Argonauts. That, plus the fact that Ottawa did lose a home game to Toronto last season, absolutely ensures that the Redblacks bring the proper focus for this one. Keep in mind Ottawa's first two games this season were both against Calgary and the Stampeders were the #1 team in the regular season last year and faced the Redblacks for the Grey Cup. Conversely, Toronto got hammered by BC last week after defeating a lesser team (Hamilton) in Week 1. The point is that the Argos already showed what is likely to happen when they step up in class and that is the case again here. The first two weeks of the season the dogs covered all 8 games but, as you might have expected, a shift has now taken place and the favorites have covered both games so far this week. This looks like another spot where the favorite, still winless on the season, is going to exert their will against an over-matched foe.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Indians
Play: Over 9.5
Today's starting pitching matchup of Justin Verlander (Detroit) and Mike Clevinger (Cleveland) is a rematch from just last week when these two were playing in Detroit. That game finished with a combined score of 19 runs, as the Indians won 11-8. That was with Clevinger allowing just 1 run on 2 hits in 6 innings. Verlander lastesd only 3 and 1/3 after giving up 7 runs on 9 hits. Cleveland is red-hot at the plate right now, averaging 6.1 runs and hitting .302 as a team in their last 7 and it's unlikely Verlander gets his revenge given his 6.22 ERA and 1.618 WHIP in 9 road starts this season. Clevinger has been throwing well, but does own a 4.50 ERA in 4 home starts and has been foruntate to only allow 4 runs in his last 3 starts, as he's walked 11 hitters over his last 17 innings of work.
Ray Monohan
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Over 9
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox face off on Saturday and with two pitchers who come into this game struggling the Over has a lot of value. On the mound for the Red Sox is Rick Porcello who has an ERA over five this year. He has given up at least three runs in each of his last seven starts. In two of his last three starts he has covered the over. I would expect the Rays will have no issue getting to Porcello early, and put up a big number on him.
On the mound for the Rays is Alex Cobb who is coming into this game off a terrible start. He went 6.1 innings against the Orioles giving up seven runs. Some trends to note. Over is 4-0 in Porcellos last 4 starts vs. Rays. Over is 6-1 in Cobbs last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.
Jimmy Boyd
Astros vs. Blue Jays
Play:Blue Jays -105
I like the value here with Toronto at basically a pick'em at home with Marcus Stroman on the mound. Stroman has been one of the bright spots for the Blue Jays in the 1st half of the season and he's been especially good at home, where he owns a 2.87 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 9 starts. It's also worth noting that Stroman owned the Astros in each of his two starts against them last year. He allowed a mere 2 earned runs on 8 hits with 21 strikeouts in a mere 13 1/3 innings of work.
Houston will send out Michael Fiers, who is 4-0 in 8 road starts, but he's not exactly been the main reason for the strong record. Fiers actually owns a subpar 4.83 ERA and 1.439 WHIP away from home. Fiers last start against the Blue Jays came in Toronto and hewas hit hard, giving up 5 runs on 7 hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 2-9 loss. Just so happens the opposing starter in that game was Stroman.
STEPHEN NOVER
Braves vs. Nationals
Play: Over 8.5
Braves with a 3.95 ERA in 26 career starts. The Nationals' bullpen has the highest ERA in the majors. Washington has yet to find a reliable closer. Teheran has a 7.36 ERA in two starts against the Nationals this season. The Braves' relief staff is below average, too, especially with setup man Arodys Vizcaino on the DL. Jordan Baker is slated to be the home plate umpire. The over has cashed 61 percent of the time he's been behind the dish during the past two years.