MIKE LUNDIN
Astros vs. Blue Jays
Play: Astros -101
We won with the Houston Astros as a premium pick when they put a 12-2 beating on the Toronto Blue Jays Friday night. I predict another Houston win when the teams do battle again Saturday afternoon.
Houston hands the ball to Mike Fiers (5-3, 3.80 ERA) who's coming off four scoreless innings against the Yankees. Fiers has allowed just seven runs on 16 hits in 30 innings over his last five outings and he has posted a 2.57ERA in five day starts on the season.
Marcus Stroman (8-5, 3.42 ERA) will toe the slab for the Jays. He's allowed just two runs in 12 2/3 innings in his last two starts, but I think he'll find it hard to slow down the surging Astros. Note that Stroman has compiled a 4.54 ERA in six day starts this season, and Houston is averaging 6.85 runs per game on the road while the Jays are averaging just 3.95 rpg home at Rogers Centre.
The Astros are 9-2 in Fiers' last 11 road starts and 12-4 in Fiers' last 16 starts during Game 3 of a series.
CAPPERS CLUB
Tigers vs. Indians
Play:Indians -147
The Indians are worthy of a free move on Saturday.
Cleveland took it to Detroit in the series opener and this has the feeling of another potential game like that.
The Indians obliterated Verlander on Sunday in Detroit, marking the 2nd time they've hit him hard this season. Cleveland roughed him up inside Progressive Field earlier this season as Verlander just hasn't had much success when it comes to facing this Indians bunch.
Some trends to note. Tigers are 2-9 in Verlanders last 11 starts vs. Indians. Tigers are 0-5 in Verlanders last 5 road starts vs. Indians.
The numbers say it all for Verlander here.
TONY KARPINSKI
Astros vs. Blue Jays
Play: Astros -104
The Astros are a big surprise in the AL West - and Carlos Correa is playing out of his mind now - batting .322 and a .400 OBP. Those are some outstanding numbers. Toronto needs to watch out when Houston's Fiers gets going - their starting pitching has been a strikeout machine. The Houston bullpen is having a great season as well - and their closers have been pitching lights out The negative run differential the Jays are carrying on their shoulders should be a big red flag. It sadly highlights and displays the lack of strong pitching and lack of run scoring ability from them. That is nothing that any team wants to be holding out front and center. Toronto has only 3-4 quality wins since the beginning of June.
JACK JONES
Diamondbacks -1½ +120
The Arizona Diamondbacks are now 33-13 at home this season. They are hitting .283 and scoring 6.0 runs per game at home this year. They'll be up against a Cincinnati Reds team that is 14-29 on the road and allowing opponents to hit .282 and score 5.8 runs per game against them.
I'm confident in backing Taijuan Walker and the Diamondbacks on the Run Line today. Walker has gone 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 13 starts this season. The Diamondbacks have won 10 of his 13 starts this year.
We'll gladly fade Luis Castillo, who has gone 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in two road starts.
The Diamondbacks are 8-0 in Walker's eight starts with a total set of 8.5 to 10 this season, outscoring opponents by 3.6 runs per game on average. The Reds are 7-24 in their last 31 road games. Arizona is 5-0 in Walker's last five starts.
TJ PEMBERTON
Boston at Tampa Bay
Play: Boston -109
Rick Porcello climbs the hill for the Red Sox on Saturday. Porcello is 4-10 on the season with 111.1 innings pitched. Porcello carries a 5.01 ERA with 102 strikeouts and 24 walks. Porcello pitched 6.1 innings in his last start allowing three earned runs on three hits. The Red Sox have not beat a team from the AL East in their last seven games when Porcello starts. The Red Sox opened as a small road underdog and they show value. Porcello will start for the Red Sox who has had an awful season but Porcello has thrown well against the Rays. Boston is the number one scoring team in the league and will give Porcello the support he needs to pick up his 5th win on the season.
JOHN MARTIN
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Over 9
The OVER is worth a look today in this Red Sox/Rays showdown. Rick Porcello has been awful all season, going 4-10 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 18 starts. Alex Cobb has only slightly been better at 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 17 starts. The OVER is 4-0 in Porcello's last four starts vs. Rays as he has allowed at least 3 runs in all four starts and they have combined for at least 9 runs in all four as well. The OVER is 6-1 in Cobb's last seven starts vs. Red Sox. They have combined for 9 or more runs in five of those seven contests.
DAVE PRICE
Royals vs. Dodgers
Play: Royals +185
The Key: The Kansas City Royals were the best bet in baseball for the month of June as they were consistently disrespected by oddsmakers. This is a 44-41 team right now with a legit shot to win the AL Central. The value is too good to pass up here with the Royals as +185 dogs as they've won 6 of their last 8 coming in. Ian Kennedy has been great of late in going 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his last 4 starts while allowing only 6 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings. Brandon McCarthy could be rusty as he's making his return from the disabled list today, and he could also be on a pitch count. The Royals are 33-23 (+19.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
JESSE SCHULE
Toronto vs. Ottawa
Play: Ottawa -4
Ricky Ray and the Argos offense took advantage of a banged up Hamilton secondary in Week 1, scoring 32 points in a double-digit home win. They couldn't get anything going offensively in Week 2, facing a much tougher B.C. Lions defense. It won't get any easier for the Argos here this week, playing on the road at Ottawa. Former Argo Trevor Harris has looked good at quarterback for the Redblacks, throwing for 725 yards with five TDs and one INT. Ricky Ray has thrown for more yards, but he's only thrown a pair of TD passes, and has a lower completion percentage. Ottawa has scored a ton of points, and when you consider that both those games were against the CFL's top defense in 2016, you have to like their chances of lighting up the scoreboard here at home in Week 3. The Redblacks have covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games versus Eastern Conference teams, and they won 29-12 the last time they played Toronto at home.
LARRY WALLACE
Los Angeles at Texas
Play; Texas -138
I like the Rangers here. Shortstop Elvis Andrus (paternity leave) and corner infielder Joey Gallo (hamstring) did not start on Friday, but second baseman Rougned Odor played though a hand injury and joined Adrian Beltre, Nomar Mazara and Jonathan Lucroy to supply Texas with all of its run production in a 10-0 rout in the opener. In addition to winning consecutive games for the first time in nearly two weeks, the Rangers (42-44) pulled into a virtual tie with the Angels (44-46) for second place in the American League West. Los Angeles has dropped four of five and failed to score more than three runs for the seventh time in 10 games - a stretch which includes three shutouts. Ross was unable to build on his best outing of the season but settled for a no-decision Sunday at the Chicago White Sox despite giving up four runs on four hits and five walks over five innings. The California native enjoyed the finest of his four turns since coming off the disabled list on June 27, holding Cleveland to one run on two hits and two walks across six frames. Pujols is 1-for-10 against Ross, who is 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA in nine appearances (five starts) versus the Angels. Chavez was saddled with the loss for the third time in his last four outings Sunday against Seattle, giving up two runs on four hits in five frames - the fifth time in his last six turns he failed to make it through six innings. The 33-year-old hasn't been particularly sharp on the road in nine trips to the mound either, going 2-5 with a 6.17 ERA. Beltre is 2-for-14 while Odor is 5-for-11 with a pair of home runs against Chavez, who is 2-5 with a 6.00 ERA in 18 appearances (five starts) against the Rangers. Beltre on Friday became the 21st player in major-league history to reach 5,000 total bases, while his three-RBI effort moved him into a tie with Hall-of-Famer George Brett (1,596) for 32nd place on the all-time list.
Jeff Benton
If you have tickets to today's Phillies-Padres game, you will be treated to a nice display of pitching as both Jhoulys Chacin and Aaron Nola are heading to the long All-Star break looking sharp.
Chacin enters having allowed no more than 2 earned runs in ANY of his last 5 starts, and did work 5 scoreless innings in his last start against the hot-hitting Dodgers attack! The Under is 3-0-1 over his last 4 starts as he gets set to work against a Philadelphia attack that has scored just x9 runs in their last 4 games (need last night's total!).
Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has allowed just 3 total runs his last 21-plus innings pitched, and all 3 of those starts have held Under the posted total. Like Chacin, Nola's last start was a blank-job for 7 strong innings against the Pirates.
Last night's game stayed Under, as the Phillies are now 5-0-1 Under in their last 6 games played.
Based on the way the pitchers have been throwing the pearl, look for both Chacin and Nola to keep the runners from scoring too many runs.
Padres and Phillies Under on Saturday.
3* SAN DIEGO-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Jack Brayman
My free winner is on the Minnesota Twins over the Baltimore Orioles.
Keeping it short and sweet, the Orioles are struggling heading into the All-Star Break, having lost five in a row, and the steady performing Twins are ready to capitalize.
This is a cheap number, and I won't even bother listing pitchers.
4* TWINS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday is on the Detroit Tigers over the Cleveland Indians, and in this one I want you to list Justin Verlander over Mike Clevinger.
This is a huge revenge game for Detroit's steady veteran, as Verlander got rocked by a Cleveland team that knocked him around for nine hits and seven runs in just 3.1 innings last Sunday. His 4.96 ERA is the highest of his career since his first full season in 2006, and that start last weekend didn't help.
His revenge factor comes against Clevinger, who took the win last Sunday, when he lasted six innings. During the start, he allowed one run on two hits and struck out seven. He also tied a career-high with five walks.
Today I think the Tigers get the job done offensively against Clevinger, while Verlander does a 180-degree turn and stymies the Tribe.
5* TIGERS
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Saturday is on the Milwaukee Brewers in the Bronx, against the New York Yankees. And in this one I do not want you listing pitchers.
If I told you in April the Milwaukee Brewers and New York Yankees would both be leading their respective divisions, would you have believed me? How about if I followed up by telling you one of those two teams would still be leading their division at the All-Star Break? You would have guessed the Yankees.
Nope.
Just as I explained yesterday, with my 80-Dime Underdog Winner on the Brewers, they're in first place in the National League Central, and would love to close the first half of the season with a wealth of momentum, by knocking off the Bronx Bombers in this series.
Milwaukee started by roughing up the Yankees last night.
Milwaukee is 17-12 over the past month, and currently is in front of the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs by 4 1/2 games after trouncing the pintstripes, 9-4, in their series lid-lifter.
The Brewers have won eight of nine, while the win over the Yankees tied a season-high five-game winning streak.
They catch a Yankees team that was 38-23 on June 12, but is 6-17 since then. They just can't seem to find a way to win, as 12 of those 16 losses have come by three runs of fewer.
Sorry, but the Brewers are the best value as a huge dog.
3* BREWERS
Brad Wilton
Saturday's comp play will be the Brewers and Yankees to land Under the total with Brent Suter and Luis Severino toeing the rubber.
Suter has made a pair of starts this summer - one on July 3rd, and one on June 13th - and both have landed Under the posted total, as his 10-plus innings in the rotation show just 3 runs allowed and 10 strikeouts to go along.
Milwaukee will face Luis Severino, and Sevvy has lost his way in 3 of his last 4 efforts, as 3 of those 4 have played Over the total, but after getting named to the All-Star team, I think Severino makes amends against a team that is unfamiliar with him, and he plows through the Brewers attack.
Suter and Severino keep the runs off the scoreboard.
Milwaukee and New York to play Under on Saturday afternoon.
1* MILWAUKEE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Doc's Sports
White Sox at Rockies
Play: Rockies -134
The Chicago White Sox are in another freefall, very similar to the one they had last year. The Sox are just 6-12 over the last 18 games and things look like they are going to get worse before they get any better. Today's starter Jose Quintana, along with Jose Abreu and others are being tossed around in trade rumors as the organization continues the arduous rebuilding process. The Rockies have stumbled of late as well, but they have an enormous lead for the second wild card spot and seem focused under new manager Bud Black. Youngster Jeff Hoffman gets the ball for the Rockies today and he's 5-1 with a 4.01 ERA despite nearly half of his innings being pitched in Coors Field. He shouldn't have too many problems with a weak White Sox lineup. Colorado easily won 12-4 over the Sox yesterday and I think they keep it rolling tonight.