DAVE COKIN
CARDINALS AT BREWERS
PLAY: CARDINALS -1
St. Louis righty Carlos Martinez continues to do a solid job for the Cardinals. He owns a big edge in today’s matchup over Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson. There’s certainly a price to pay in terms of the betting line, but I believe there’s ample reason to back the Redbirds today.
Anderson has been really awful lately, and he actually got kind of lucky last start as a breeze blowing in at Busch Stadium probably saved him at least two homers. Milwaukee has gotten some better than expected performances from a couple of their largely unheralded starters, but Anderson has been disappointing. I think you can make a case that he’s not even a #5 starter at this point.
Carlos Martinez is just 7-6 for the Cardinals, but he’s pitching much better ball than that middle of the road record might indicate. He’s had seven straight starts that have graded out as average or better. Martinez no longer just rears back and tries to blow away the opposition. He’s become a quality pitcher who can now go deeper into games and rarely beats himself in the process. Martinez is now at the point where when he gets the baseball every fifth day, there’s a very good chance he’ll get to the seventh inning and will give his team a good chance to record a win.
The Brewers have actually played a bit better than I anticipated, despite the fact they’re nine games below .500. They’re a winning team for the season to date at Miller Park, and they’re not the pushovers I though they might be prior to the season. The Cardinals are just 44-42, so there’s little question they’re at least a mild disappointment as we head toward the All-Star break. The problem for the Redbirds has been close games. When a team is +78 net runs through 86 games, they ought to be better than just two games above breakeven. But that run differential also suggests that this is a team capable of getting hot, and I like the fact they’re playing as well as they are on the road.
I definitely like the idea of backing Martinez in a matchup with Anderson. So I’m going to split the ticket on this game, with a split on the steep money line as well the close to even money runs line, and I’ll make the Cardinals today’s free play.
Sleepyj
Dodgers -1.5 -115
I really like what I saw from McCarthy in his last start..he was rock solid and facing the Padres lineup sets up for another solid outing...Dodgers have been playing well and closing out this series on w high not the next few days is crucial...LA lit it up last night with the long ball..Turner, Grandal and Gonzalez all go yard early in that only..Dodgers had a ton of hits and I expect that type of game here against Perdomo...Perdomo has a 7.93 ERA and enjoyed one of his better games his last time out..I think the success here is short lived...Dodgers saw him back in late May and lit him up..Dodgers will be looking to build off a
Mike Lundin
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -158
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 in the opener of a three-game series on Friday. This looks like a good spot to back the Red Sox to make it two on the bounce.
They'll face left-hander Matt Moore (5-5, 4.54 ERA) on the mound today. Moore tossed seven scoreless innings in a victory over the Red Sox on June 29 but he's 4-4 with a 4.67 ERA in nine games (eight starts) against the Red Sox. We can note that Boston has hit southpaws hard all year long with a .285 batting average and a .362 on base percentage.
Rick Porcello (10-2, 3.82) takes the ball for Boston. He beat the Rays in April and is 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA in 13 career starts versus Tampa Bay. He's 7-0 in eight starts at Fenway Park this year, making him one of just three pitchers in the major leagues without a loss in the first eight home starts of the 2016 season.
Rays are 0-8 in their last eight road games and 0-6 in Moore's last six road starts.
Art Aronson
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11½
The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (6-9, 3.30 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. Atlanta on Monday, allowing two runs off five scattered hits to go along with eight K’s over 7.2 innings in the victory. Eickhoff is quietly surging into the break as he hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in a single start since May 28th (note that over his last seven starts, Eickhoff has posted an impressive 41:15 K:BB in 44 innings to go along with a very respectable 2.25 ERA). The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (0-3, 3.03) who took a loss vs. the Giants on Monday despite allowing just three runs off four hits over six innings. Anderson will now look to secure his first victory of the season and improve upon his already impressive 2.50 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors field. With these two “under the radar” hurlers squaring off, we think the UNDER is indeed worthy of a second look in this particular match-up.
Marc Lawrence
Oakland at Houston
Play: Houston -185
Edges - Astros: Lance McCullers 4-0 day team starts, and 3-1 team starts vs A.L. West foes this season, and 2.98 ERA last seven games. Athletics: Kendall Graven 2-4 team starts versus A.L. West foes this season, and 5.72 ERA away as opposed to 2.97 ERA home this season. With McCullers sporting a 2.17 ERA at home as opposed to a 6.89 ERA away this season, we recommend a 1* play on Houston.
Bob Harvey
Oakland at Houston
Play: Houston -1½
The Houston Astros look to clinch a winning homestand when they host the Oakland Athletics in the third game of a four game set. Kendall Graveman will take the hill for Oakland while Lance McCullers will throw ‘em down for Houston.
The Astros (46-40, 39-47 RL) improved to 5-3 on its current home stretch with a wild 10-9 victory on Friday. The A’s (37-49, 44-42 RL) scored five times in the top of the ninth only to see Luis Valbuena smack a three-run, walk-off homer in the bottom of the frame.Valbuena finished with three hits and is 7 for 17 with three home runs and eight RBIs during his five-game hitting skein.
Graveman (4-6, 4.57 ERA) is 3-0 over his last eight starts after holding the Twins to one run on three hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings at Minnesota. He split his first two career starts against the Astros before escaping with a no-decision at Houston on June 4 after yielding five runs and seven hits in 4 1/3 innings.
McCullers (4-2, 3.57 ERA) has also been strong of late, allowing just four runs over 19.1 innings in his last three outings. He settled for a no-decision in his first career start against Oakland before allowing two runs over seven innings in a victory on June 5.
Houston is 16-5 in its last 21 games and 16-5 last 21 at home. Oakland is 2-6 in its past eight outings but 8-3 in its last 11 roads outings
Alex Smart
Tampa Bay at Boston
Play: Boston -160
The Bo sox starter today Porcello is unbeaten in his last nine trips to the hill, including a win at Tampa Bay on June 28 and very much looks like a solid starter to back in this spot vs a side that has lost 13 straight games as a road underdog and are 3-20 in in their L/23 overall vs the moneyline . Porcello is 7-0 in eight home starts with his team winning al 8 starts.
Rays are 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Rays are 0-6 in Moores last 6 road starts.
MMA OddsBreaker
Jim Miller to win by Submission
Both Jim Miller and Takanori Gomi are on a decline as they enter their twilight MMA years, but Miller seems to have a little bit more left in the tank. Gomi hasn't looked very good in a while, while Miller has still been dangerous with his submissions and just had a very close fight against Diego Sanchez. Gomi's submission defense has been a huge problem for him the last few years, and he's been tapped out three times in his UFC run. The concern is that he was knocked out in his last two fights, but Miller hasn't knocked anyone out in over four years so that seems unlikely.
Larry Ness
Angels vs. Orioles
Pick: Orioles
The Los Angeles Angels are just 37-50 on the season (16 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West) but after last night’s 9-5 win at Baltimore, have won FOUR straight games for the third time this season. The Angels have outscored the opposition 34-13 during their current four-game winning streak and hope to continue their hot hitting vs Baltimore’s Yovani Gallardo (3-1, 6.10 ERA). Gallardo went on the DL in late April and didn’t return until June 18. He’s made four starts since that return and while he’s 2-0 (team is 3-1) he’s allowed 21 hits (including five HRs) over 20.1 innings while posting a 5.31 ERA. He’s made only one career start vs the Angels, allowing FIVE runs on eight hits with three walks in four innings.
Nick Tropeano (3-2, 3.28 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels. He was recalled from Triple-A after working his way back from a right shoulder injury to make a start this past Monday vs Tampa Bay. Tropeano made just two mistakes, allowing two solo HRs over five innings of a no-decision (5 IP / 4 hits / 2 ERs). Tropeano will be making his 23rd career start on Saturday (Angels are 10-12) but first vs Baltimore. He’ll face a first-place Baltimore team with the most home wins (31-14) of any team in MLB, averaging 5.31 RPG and earning the third-best home moneyline at plus-$1,432.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Mets
Pick: Under
Washington has ace Max Scherzer on the mound and the Under is 12-5-2 in his last 19 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Scherzer (9-6) threw six strong innings Monday, allowing one run on four hits and three walks while striking out seven, but took the loss in a 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Brewers. The under is 11-4 when the Mets face the National League East. The Under is also 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in New York, including 5-1 under his last six starts vs. the Mets.
Don Best Consensus
Cardinals at Brewers
Pick: Cardinals
STL are 47-21 in the last 68 meetings and 24-9 in the last 33 meetings in Milwaukee. STL starter Martinez is 2-1 with a 1.34 ERA in 10 appearances at Miller Park. Brewers starter Anderson has a 12.66 ERA over his past three starts and Milwaukee is 0-3 in those games.
CARMINE BIANCO
Columbus at New England
Play: New England -0.5
Both sides are just outside the playoff zone and although New England have played terrible on the road in my opinion they've looked good at home including last out were they outplayed NYC only to lose 1-0. A good spot for them to bounce back here against a Columbus side that is winless it's last 12 on the road.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5
Laying the 1.5 runs on the Nationals here. Playing on the road, so they're guaranteed to get their 9 innings at the plate. Scherzer should dominate a beat-up and struggling Mets offense.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Los Angeles Angels +120
I'm backing the underdog Angels on Saturday. The Los Angeles Angels suddenly are a hot team with four straight wins after last night's 9-5 victory over Baltimore. Nick Tropeano came off the disabled list and gave up two runs and four hits in five innings on Monday although the Angels lost 4-2 to Tampa Bay. Tropeano is 2-1 with a 2.78 road ERA this season and the Orioles will be facing him for the first time. And we should note the Angels are on a 6-0 run when Tropeano takes the mound against teams with a winning record. Yovani Gallardo is still struggling and didn't make it past the fourth inning in a 7-5 loss at the Dodgers on Monday. Gallardo allowed four runs and six hits and now has a 6.10 ERA. Angels hitters are batting .308 versus Gallardo and Los Angeles has won four of their last five games in Baltimore.
Chase Diamond
Arizona vs San Francisco
Play: Arizona
Best team in the National League West and best team in Baseball overall takes on the last place Arizona Diamondbacks. This team was not supposed to be this bad and their road record is not that bad 23-18. Jake Peavy is by far the Giants worst pitcher and Robbie Ray has the better arm and numbers overall. I love the value here your getting better pitcher and a team hungry to win at good plus money. 71% of the public bets are coming in on the home Giants and this line is moving the other way.