Scott Rickenbach
Marlins at Reds
Play: Over 8½
Lamb gets the start for the Reds and is 1-5 with a 5.43 ERA this season. The Cincy southpaw has been awful on the road this season with an 8.51 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP and Lamb got rocked at Washington in his most recent start. Conley gets the start for the Marlins and has been putting up some decent numbers but he also faced the Braves twice in his three prior starts. In 2 of his last 3 outings that have not come against Atlanta, Conley has given up 5 earned runs in the start. None of Lamb’s last three starts have resulted in an under and the over is 9-3 in Miami’s Saturday games this season. Also, the Marlins are 18-11 to the over in day games this year. The Reds are also 18-11 to the over in day games this season. After yesterday’s pitchers duel, look for the hot hitting to resume. Cincinnati had averaged 5.6 runs per game in their last 5 games before scoring only once yesterday. The Marlins have averaged about 5 runs per game in their last dozen games and the Reds bullpen has been awful this season.
ASA
Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 10
The Tigers Matt Boyd is certainly looking forward to again facing his former team but the way he is pitched this season he is likely to struggle. The Detroit left-hander has a 7.66 ERA on the season and he has given up 13 earned runs in the 8 innings he has logged over his last two starts. The Blue Jays will have Aaron Sanchez toeing the rubber early this afternoon in Toronto. Even though Sanchez has excellent numbers this season, he had some "hiccups" at home this season prior to his fantastic outing against Kansas City on Monday. In his 5 prior home starts, Sanchez had given up at least 3 earned runs 4 times including giving up 6 earned runs twice. The over is a perfect 3-0 in Boyd's three road starts this season. The over is 8-4 in Blue Jays Saturday games this season. The over is 20-11 in Tigers day games this season and 38-22 in Detroit's games against right-handed starters this year. When off of a loss, the Tigers have gone 25-15 to the over. When up against a team with a winning record, Detroit is 30-16 to the over.
BRANDON LEE
Cardinals -150
St Louis simply has a huge edge on the mound in this one, plus the Cardinals are going to come out highly motivated after dropping the series opener 3-4 on Friday. St Louis will send out Carlos Martinez, who has been on a tear of late. Martinez has allowed a total of 5 runs over his last 5 starts and is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA in 6 road starts. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who is 4-9 with a 5.49 ERA in 16 starts overall. Anderson comes into this one in awful form, posting a 12.66 ERA and 2.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
AARON TOLLER
Braves vs. White Sox
Pick: Over 7.5
Braves dropped 11 runs last night and I think there bats stay hot. Teheran is coming off a Staph infection on his leg and I see that effecting him in the outing. I like the over des Chicago inability to score with Quintana on the dish.
JIMMY BOYD
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Pick: Giants -132
San Francisco is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. The Giants defeated Arizona 6-2 on Friday and are now 6-2 in their last 8, while the Diamondbacks are just 2-10 in their last 12. I'll take my chances San Francisco keeps it going with another win at home this afternoon.
The Giants will send out Jake Peavy, who has a strong 3.18 ERA over his last 3 starts. SF has won 6 of his 9 home starts on the season and in his last start against Arizona he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings. Arizona will counter with Robbie Ray, who has a 6.23 ERA and 1.443 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Dbacks are just 2-6 in his last 8 road starts and he gave up 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in his last outing against the Giants.
Ray is just 6-19 in his last 25 starts following a team loss and 1-5 in his last 6 starts against a team with a winning record. Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a left-handed starter and 11-2 in Peavy's last 13 home starts against a team with a losing record.
Power Sports
Philadelphia vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
After dominating in Thursday's opener (won 11-2), the Rockies gave one back to the Phillies last night, losing 5-3. I fully anticipate the home team bouncing back tonight.
Philadelphia is a team that simply isn't very good. I realize that a 41-47 record gives the illusion that they are competitive, but a -89 run differential (3rd worst in baseball) tells a far different story. Nearly half of their wins this year (20) have come by exactly one run.
The Rockies are a franchise not known for pitching, but they actually have compiled some decent arms. Tyler Anderson has looked quite good in his five starts so far (3.03 ERA), even though he has nothing to show for it (0-3). He's allowed 3 ER all five times out and here will be facing a Phillies team that ranks 29th in runs scored.
Big Al
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: Under
We've reached the half-way point of the season, and wouldn't you know it, but once again the Giants are the best team in Major League baseball, albeit just barely. For anyone who's followed this team over the past decade, that should not come as a surprise. They always seem to get the most out of their players - both the young ones and the veterans. Case in point is veteran RHP Jake Peavy. If you ignore his start two back - and you should - Peavy has thrown quality starts in each of his other four outings, going back to the beginning of June. That one before his last looks ugly on paper - seven runs (four earned) on six hits in just 3 1/3 innings in Oakland - but that's because his defense completely fell apart behind him and Peavy went into a bit of a rant and completely lost his focus. He came back like a wily veteran does, in his last start, and threw 6 2/3 brilliant frames to defeat the Rockies, 3-1, here at home. Peavy really likes pitching at AT&T Park this season, as in nine starts here, he is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA (compared with 1-5 and 6.64 in eight starts elsewhere).
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA +130 over San Francisco
Think we are getting nice value here with Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray who is a perfect 3-0 against San Francisco lifetime. Jake Peavy has been hot and cold this year for the Giants but was certainly cold earlier in the season when Arizona roughed him up for 9 runs. More of the same today take the snakes!
Bob Balfe
Mariners / Royals Under 9
Both pitchers have pitched well against each team over their last few starts and the bullpens this year are pretty decent. I believe we will see a very low scoring pitchers duel here today. Kansas City is a great home team, but has been struggling a bit with the bat as of late. Look for a fine pitchers duel.
Kevin Rogers
Angels at Orioles
Play: Orioles
The Orioles have a lot of home run potential but the offense has stalled a bit in a recent 2-6 run, failing to top six runs in any of those games and averaging just 4.4 runs per game in that run. Last night the Angels won 9-5 in this matchup in the final series before the break but there were just 19 hits despite the 14 runs as four errors added extra base runners. Camden Yards totals are 21/21/3 and Yovani Gallardo is a much better pitchers than his 6.10 ERA suggests. In four starts since two months on the DL Gallardo has allowed just 12 runs and his ERA at home is just 3.52 this season. Nick Tropeano has done a great job this season stabilizing an Angel rotation beset by injuries. His 3.28 ERA is even down to 2.78 in his road starts and the ‘under’ is 7-3-1 in his starts this season. Tropeano has allowed just 12 runs in his last six starts and this is an incredibly high total that is even higher than last night when one of the AL’s worst starters Ubaldo Jimenez was on the mound. Look for lower numbers Saturday afternoon in Baltimore.
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +108 over BALTIMORE
The Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors and that alone makes them worthy of taking back a tag here. L.A. has won four straight while scoring 34 runs in those games. We also get a huge edge on the mound with Nick Tropeano over Yovani Gallardo. Tropeano is 3-2 in 11 starts with a 3.28 ERA. It’s a shaky sample but he did the same thing in 38 innings last year. Sharp improvements in Tropeano’s K-rate and control are well-supported by his strong swing and miss rate and first-pitch strike spikes. Tropeano’s solid fastball sets up his plus secondary pitches. All the components are all there for the great value that Tropeano offers. The only thing missing is MLB IP at this point but we're suggesting to buy him up at a low price. We can understand why the Angels were relying on him for a good year.
Since his return from the DL, Yovani Gallardo is 2-0 in four starts. That’s all because of run support and not his skills. Here’s a guy with a WHIP of 1.64, an xERA of 5.38, a 6% swing and miss rate and one of the lowest velocity fastballs in the game at 88.6 MLB. Gallardo is good at issuing walks, he’s good at being taken deep and if the Orioles weren’t paying him a god damn fortune, he would likely be in the press box making hotel reservations for the Orioles next trip. Gallardo is one of the five worst starters in baseball and he’ll now face a team that is seeing beach balls at the plate. It should be fun.
Minnesota +111 over TEXAS
After a poor start to the season, the Twins have turned it around of late by winning five or their last seven games while scoring 52 times over that span. The Twinkies have spent most of the last week beating up on the Rangers and today they'll send right handed veteran Ricky Nolasco to the mound. Nolasco has been the only Twins starter not to pick up a win on this current run. While his 3-7 record and 5.26 ERA may look unappealing, a closer looks show he's actually pitched pretty well this season. He's striking out just over seven batters per nine innings and he's cut his walks per nine down to 1.93 from 3.38 a season ago. Nolasco has been stung by a very unlucky 43% hit rate with runners on base. That is the highest mark in MLB. As it regresses, so will his ERA.
The Rangers rotation is a mess. They have not had a starter make it out of the fifth inning in seven straight starts. In four of those seven games, the starter didn’t make it past four innings. This is a heavily taxed bullpen on an exceptionally overachieving squad. Kyle Lohse will now take the place of Nick Martinez who was scheduled to make the start today before being sent down to the minors after last night's game. Texas picked Lohse off the scrap heap, purchasing his contract from Round Rock Express of the Pacific Coast League. The vet's minor-league stats are not inspiring, as he went 3-5 with a 5.06 ERA in 10 starts. After years of outperforming his xERA by a wide margin, Lohse’s ERA spiked the last time he saw major league action thanks to hr/f misfortune, long overdue hit % correction and a 2nd half loss of control. A profile like this is prone to fall off the cliff at some point, and when you're 37, there's no guarantee that even a parachute will provide a soft landing. Lohse is what fade material is made of.
San Diego +183 over LOS ANGELES
Brandon McCarthy was brilliant in his first game back in well over a year last week against the Rockies. McCarthy struck out eight batters over five full and we suspect the Dodgers will stretch him out even a little more today. It's a nice story but McCarthy is not Clayton Kershaw yet he's priced like him today. We are not willing to put that much stock into one start against a Colorado team that couldn't hit a beach ball in that series. In his rehab starts, McCarthy was tagged for seven runs in 11 innings. What we have here is an overreaction to McCarthy’s great return but he’s 33 years old and he’s very unlikely to go more than six innings here no matter how good he is. Oh, and by the way, his counterpart is so much better than his surface stats suggest.
The future is bright for Luis Perdomo. His ugly surface stats (7.93 ERA) have him underpriced, which is something we are going to try and take advantage of. Perdomo has filthy stuff with a four-pitch arsenal. In Perdomo's last start, he held the D-Backs to two runs on nine hits while striking out five in six innings of work. We like that bulldog mentality and we also like that he’s capable of getting out of jams on his own with 53 K's in 59 innings. Perdomo’s .402 batting average against on batted balls in play (BABIP) is an extremely unlucky number that is sure to improve. In six appearances in June, including four starts, Perdomo’s high ERA was the result of a 38% hit rate, 58% strand rate and 43% hr/f more than anything else. His underlying skills as a starter were outstanding with 8.4 K’s/9 with a 62% groundball rate. In fact, he was the only starter in the majors in June who combined a 12.0%+ swing and miss rate and 60%+ groundball rate. With mid-90s heat, a steep groundball tilt, and one of the better curveballs in the NL West (18% swing and miss rate % against it), Perdomo is worth playing 100% of the time at prices like this. Not many have even heard of him, let alone know how good he is. This is without question one of the biggest overlays of the season so far. A must play.
SPORTS WAGERS
J. Pena +145 over Cat Zigano
The Ultimate Fighter 20 Champion Julianna Pena is currently the #5 ranked Bantamweight and is firmly in title contention for the women's most popular title. 3-0 in the UFC at just 26 years of age, Pena is considered to be the future of this division and a top ranked fighter for years to come. She will get her most notorious opponent to date in the #3 ranked Cat Zigano.
Zigano is 9-1 in her career, and 2-1 in the UFC, fighting once each year since 2013. Her debut saw her immediately garner contender status triumphing over current champion Miesha Tate by third round TKO. In 2014, she would earn another third round TKO victory over current title challenger Amanda Nunes. In 2015 she got her chance at the title and became one of Ronda Rousey's many victims, losing by submission just 15 seconds into the first round. This display occurred on one of the largest PPV events at the time, and the effects of the loss would be devastating in that type of spotlight given that this was the first time Zigano ever tasted defeat in her MMA career. Without getting into theories and pretending to know the psychology behind a famous athlete and the effects of opportunities lost, what was factual is that Zigano disappeared from the MMA scene since the loss. As recently posted on instagram, Zigano went through a dramatic body transformation that took her from her weigh in weight of 135, to a reported 175, and now back down to 145 one week before the weigh ins for this fight. While this story is inspiring on many levels, it also raises a red flag when looking into her chances at returning to her elite form. At 34 years of age, Zigano is already giving up eight years to Pena. Added to this, she has been dieting and shedding pounds at a furious rate. Needing to shed an additional 10 lbs before the weigh in will be exhausting, and will undoubtedly impact her endurance and overall condition as she steps into the cage Saturday night.
Pena last fought eight months ago, defeating then highly ranked Jessica Eye by three round decision. Since then, Eye has fell to #10 in the division following losses to Tate, Pena and Sara McMann. All three of her losses were by three-round decisions, and were well fought. However, the loss to Pena was the most lopsided as Pena put Eye on her back for most of the fight and controlled the direction for two of the three rounds, including an absolute dominant rare 10-8 round. This display shows the ability of Pena to take fights to spots that benefit her the most, and how dominant she can be on the ground. While it’s not very relevant to bring up her fight vs. Milana Dudieva (hasn't fought since), Pena put on an absolute vicious display, out-striking the Russian 37-0 in a first round ground and pound TKO. This shows how dominant Pena can be when she finds an opening.
Cat Zigano was one of the top three women's bantam weight fighters two years ago. Tate and Zigano were long looked at as the only two ladies that could potentially take the belt from Rousey during her run as champion. Things have changed dramatically since, as the landscape has been reshaped and the division continually evolves. The type of pedigree that Zigano brings into this match has her billed as a significant favorite, however, the long layoff and obvious red flags surrounding her dramatic weight cut, makes her a very large risk vs. the much younger, future title contending Julianna Pena. This line was already a big overlay on the favorite, and with the additional factors that very well could play a big role in the way this fight plays out, the tag on Pena is much more appealing than it would have been without the concerns.
Wunderdog
Arizona @ San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -125
Arizona lost again last night, 6-2, to the Giants for its 10th loss in 12 games, and the last-place Diamondbacks are showing signs of packing it in for this season and building for the future. They traded closer Brad Ziegler, who has 18 saves, to the Boston Red Sox on Friday night. Robbie Ray is 4-7 with a 4.78 ERA, allowed four runs and eight hits in six innings against San Francisco his last start, and the Diamondbacks have lost seven of his last nine starts. Jake Peavy comes off a good performance against Colorado when he gave up only one run and five hits in 6 2/3 innings. The Giants have won seven of his last 10 starts, are 27-17 at home this season, and in first place by seven games in the NL West.
Vegas Butcher
Arizona Diamondbacks +105 1st Half
This is a classic scenario where we can find value in a particular starter due to an inflated ERA. Robbie Ray has an ERA of 4.8, yet his advanced metrics indicate a much more competent pitcher: 26% K-rate; 3.9/3.6/3.8 FxS. Basically he's pitching at a level that is a full run better than his ERA indicates, ranking as my 31st overall pitcher on the season and #14 over the last 30-days. By comparison, Peavy's ERA of 5.0 matches his advanced stats: 5.1 xFIP and 4.7 SIERA. His 18% K-rate is mediocre as is his poor GB-rate of under 40%. (Ray is at 46% GB-rate). When Peavy has faced off against the DBacks earlier this year he's scored individual game SIERA's of 4.4 and 3.9 respectively. By comparison, Ray's have been 2.7 and 3.3 when he faced off against the Giants, significantly better. I expect another solid start from Ray tonight as he should keep San Fran's key lefties at bay. With Arizona's closer being dealt to the Red Sox, and overall having a huge disadvantage in the BP, I'm only playing this one for the first 5 innings.
Scott Delaney
Playing a longshot tonight, as I like the New York Mets to get it done over the Washington Nationals, and in this one I want you listing scheduled starters Logan Verrett over Max Scherzer.
Verrett is filling in for Matt Harvey, who was placed on the 15-day DL on Wednesday with right shoulder discomfort stemming from symptoms consistent with thoracic outlet syndrome, but make note this won't be his first barbecue.
In five starts this season, Verrett is 1-3 with a 5.32 ERA. Not impressive, I know. And one of those losses came against the Nationals and Scherzer. So with that, for the sake of a free play, I'm looking at the revenge factor.
Scherzer is in after taking a tough-luck loss his last time out, when he fired six innings of one-run ball, during a 1-0 Nats defeat. And yes, he has a 2.03 ERA in 10 career outings against the Mets, and has allowed New York only two runs in 13.2 innings this season, but it's time for a change.
Play this home pup and look for an upset.
2* METS