Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in Philadelphia-Colorado.
After an Over on Thursday, the teams reverted to series form on Friday, as they held Under the posted price.
Series numbers now show 6 of the past 9 meetings having played Under the total.
With Jerad Eickhoff sporting a solid 2.41 ERA for his last 3 starts, and 12 of his 17 starts this season having held Under, I think that is the way you look.
Also consider Colorado pitcher Tyler Anderson has now made 5 starts this season, and 4 of the 5 have held Under the total.
Phils-Rocks Under the total on Saturday night.
2* PHILADELPHIA-COLORADO UNDER
Brad Wilton
With 11 combined runs on Friday, the Rays and the Red Sox lived up to their recent past meetings, as they combined for their 5th Over in their last 6 meetings dating back to the middle of April.
Look for another offensive affair on Saturday afternoon, as each of Boston starter Rick Porcello's last 3 starts have landed in the Over column.
In fact, the Over is 11-5-1 this year when Porcello starts, and his team is a solid 15-5-3 Over the total their last 23 games played on a Saturday!
Matt Moore has been sharp his last 3 trips to the hill, but his team is 20-7-2 Over the posted price their last 29 on the road.
Have to stick with the Over trends here, and look for the runs to add up.
4* TAMPA BAY-BOSTON OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 80-72 run with free picks: Tampa Bay at BOSTON (-1.5, +120).
The STORYLINE in this game today - A battle of American League East rivals continue their series at Fenway Park, with the Tampa Bay Rays in town to face the Boston Red Sox. And last night I told you the line was far too cheap to ignore, as I liked the Red Sox to take advantage of a slumping Tampa team that had lost three in a row. Sure enough, exactly what I said would happen, happened. Now I'm laying the Run Line with the Crimson Hose.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Boston - which is just two games back in a tightly contested East, behind first-place Baltimore and second-place Toronto - is 28-20 at home. The Sox just devoured the Rangers three nights ago, 11-6, and came into this weekend series pumped after taking Thursday night off. The momentum is the key, as it's on Boston's side.
BOTTOM LINE is - Tampa Bay has lost nine of 11, and is a disappointing 16-24 on the road. And now the Rays are trying to tame one of the hottest hitting teams this month, as the Red Sox rank No. 1 with a .362 batting average in July, while their 48 runs scored rank fifth. All Boston tonight with the Run Line price, and don't bother worrying about the pitchers. No matter who goes, play this game.
1* BOSTON -1.5
RAY MONOHAN
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Chicago started this season out on fire, but have found some harsh reality as of late. With a win needed, this is a nice spot and pitching matchup for the Cubs to see a lopsided victory. Chicago sends out 9-4 Jon Lester, who sits with an ERA of 2.67. Lester owns just a 1.90 ERA in 7 starts against this Pirates team.
He'll be countered by Chad Kuhl, who could be in for a rude awakening against this tough lineup. Kuhl doesn't have anything overpowering, nor does he have the ability to strike hitters out. This Cubs lineup has a lot of power and can put the ball in the play. Look for them to be able to string a lot of hits together against Kuhl.
Some trends to consider. Cubs are 5-1 in Lesters last 6 starts vs. National League Central. Cubs are 8-2 in Lesters last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
Look for the Cubs to really come out firing here. They need to right the ship here and not limp into the All Star break. Given that, Kuhl will be in for a tough time tonight.
JACK JONES
Houston Astros -1.5 -104
The Houston Astros are a scorching hot 30-12 in their last 42 games overall. They have made a big push before the All-Star Break to try and chase down the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Look for that push to continue with another win Saturday.
The Astros have a big edge on the mound today behind Lance McCullers, who is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in nine starts, 3-1 with a 2.17 ERA in six home starts, and 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last three starts. McCullers is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts against Oakland.
Kendall Graveman is 4-6 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.689 WHIP in 10 road starts. Graveman is 1-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three career starts against Houston as well.
Oakland is 3-13 (-11.0 Units) against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. It is losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot. Houston is 14-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. It is winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot. The Astros are 10-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in home games after 7 or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons. They are winning by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.
DAVE PRICE
Kansas City Royals -115
The Kansas City Royals have been one of the best home teams in baseball this season. They are 28-12 at home on the year and 38-15 in their last 53 home games overall. This is a very generous price to get them at home to say the least. The Royals are 21-7 in starter Edinson Volquez's last 28 home starts. Volquez has never lost to the Mariners, going 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA in 6 lifetime starts against them. Wade Miley has struggled all season, going 6-5 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.397 WHIP in 15 starts, and 3-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in 8 road starts. Volquez is 11-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.
TEDDY COVERS
Pittsburgh +148
To say that the Cubs have been burning their backers money of late is something of an understatement! The results don’t lie. Chicago is now 5-14 in their last nineteen games. After going all season with only one losing streak longer than two games, the Cubs have three 3+ game losing streaks since June 20th.
Injuries have decimated their lineup, most notably to table setter Dexter Fowler at the top of the order. Chicago’s elite starting pitching has faltered as well, and al of a sudden, the bullpen is getting gassed behind the starters, blowing leads and giving up runs in bunches fairly consistently of late.
It’s not just that the Cubs are losing – they’re losing as favorites, over and over again. During this recent skid, the Cubs have lost games at -200, -255, -181, -280 and -220 favorites….in the past week alone! And one of their aces who commands these type of prices – Jon Lester – is coming off a disaster against the Mets where he was able to retire only four of the 14 batters he faced before mercifully getting pulled from the game by Joe Maddon.
Meanwhile, the Pirates are headed in the opposite direction, as hot as Vegas in July heading into the weekend before the All Star Break. They’ve won eight of their last nine – all by multi run margins, by the way – despite being underdogs in seven of those eight victories. That includes a pair of wins with impressive rookie Chad Kuhl on the hill at +240 and +145. Expect a third straight ‘plus price’ cash for Kuhl tonight. Live Underdog here …