Free Picks for Saturday, June 10th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Scott Spreitzer
Rays -120 Game 1
Oakland lost again last night to bring its road record to 8-21 while the Rays won their third straight and improved to 19-14 at home. Sonny Gray typifies the Athletics as he's 0-2 with a whopping 7.02 ERA on the road compared to 2-0 and 2.92 at home. Gray has allowed 13 runs on 19 hits in 16 2/3 innings in three road starts and last year he gave up 13 runs (10 earned) on 15 hits in 10 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay, including six runs in 5 2/3 innings at Tropicana Field. Erasmo Ramirez comes off a loss at Seattle, but the Rays won his other four starts this year and he is 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA at home. Oakland has lost nine of its last 13 games overall and 18 of Gray's last 25 starts, including 15 of his last 18 road starts.
Cappers Club
Minnesota at San Francisco
Play: Minnesota +145
The Minnesota Twins and the San Francisco Giants face off on Saturday and with the Twins as big underdogs I think they have a lot of juice.
On the mound for the Twins is Jose Berrios who has pitched well for the Twins so far this year. He comes into this game with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 2.76.
The one thing that hurt him this year is the long ball. Good thing for him the Giants struggling hitting it out of the park. They rank dead last in the MLB in home runs this year.
On the mound for the Giants is Jeff Samardzija who has really struggled this year. He comes into this game with a 2-7 record and a 4.29 ERA. The Twins hit the ball hard and I think they will have no problem doing that in this game.
Some trends to note. Twins are 14-3 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Giants are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Marc Lawrence
Rays -123 Game 1
Edges - Rays: Ramirez 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP home as opposed to 10.29 ERA and 2.14 WHIP away this season… Athletics: Gray 0-3 with 7.02 ERA and 1.50 WHIP away as opposed to 3-1 with 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP home this season… With Gray winless in his last three away team starts in June, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Dustin Hawkins
Marlins vs. Pirates
Play: Marlins -117
Marlins pitcher Daniel Straily is 23-13 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. He is also is 20-9 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons. He is also is 9-1 against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
Jesse Schule
New York vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +1.5
The Braves will host the Mets in a double-header on Saturday, and I like Atlanta in Game 1. They send a highly touted prospect to the mound, making his major league debut opposite a struggling Robert Gsellman. The Mets have lost five of their last seven, while the Braves have won four of their last six. Gsellman (4-3, 5.53 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits and two walks over 5 1/3 innings in a home win over the Pirates his last time out. He's really been hit hard on the road, where he owns a 9.20 ERA in four appearances. He's also been roughed up by Atlanta this season to the tune of 11 runs on 18 hits and four walks over 10 innings in two appearances. The Braves hand the ball to Sean Newcomb, who is a former first round pick (15th overall in 2014). He's having a fine season in Triple-A, going 3-3 with a 2.97 ERA. The Rookie should get plenty of run support here given Gsellman's history against the Braves. Matt Kemp has hammered Mets pitching this season, batting .371 against New York. He's 6-for12 lifetime versus Gsellman.
Jim Feist
Detroit at Boston
Pick: Under
Justin Verlander is on a nice roll allowing 3 runs his last nine innings. He has already shut out the Red Sox once this season, firing a 3-hitter in 7 innings. Boston has gone 4 straight under the total at Fenway coming into this series. Boston is #14 in baseball in runs scored with little power after David Ortiz retired. Ace Chris Sale (7-2, 2.89 ERA) is on the mound with an extra day of rest. He has a 2.23 ERA at home. The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Boston and this shapes up as a defensive duel.
Doc's Sports
Texas at Washington
Play: Over 9.5
Expect to see some runs on Saturday afternoon in Washington D.C. as the Nationals host the Texas Rangers in an interleague battle. The Nats have been absolutely murdering opposing pitchers this season and have scored more runs than anyone in the NL. They also lead the way in home runs and have one of the most feared middle-of-the-orders with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth. Don't sleep on Trea Turner and Matt Wieters either, who both can also put up some big numbers. The Rangers haven't produced as many runs as usual, but that's mainly because Adrian Beltre has been on the shelf for the first two months of the season. He's back in action now, so I expect Texas to start putting up some crooked numbers on the competition. Look for a slugfest between these two clubs on Saturday, so we're playing the OVER in our Saturday Free Play selection.
Power Sports
Orioles at Yankees
Pick: Yankees
Baltimore was in a tough spot yday as they were playing in a third different city in as many days. They are not a good road team to begin with (now 10-18), so it wasn't very surprising to see them fall 8-2 at Yankee Stadium. Furthermore, it appears as if these AL East rivals are headed in opposite directions as the Yanks can probably make a legit claim to being the second best team in the American League (behind Houston) while the O's have now dropped two in a row and have been outscored this season despite a winning record.
Chris Tillman was one of the top pitchers to bet on last season as he finished +13.7 units, third most in all of MLB. He did so despite some relatively pedestrian numbers (3.78 ERA, 1.282 WHIP), therefore, it was highly likely that regression would take hold for 2017. It has, although it's been even more severe than expected. The O's starter has awful numbers this year (2.309 WHIP in road starts!) and is 0-3 his L3 starts overall w/ a 7.90 ERA and 2.195 WHIP. He has not fared well in the past here in the Bronx, posting a 6.34 ERA in nine starts. This year's NY lineup is far stronger than past editions, ranking fourth or better in runs scored, team batting average, OBP (1st!) and slugging. So this is a very tough assignment.
Tillman will be opposed by Luis Severino, who has a 1.37 ERA over his L4 starts having allowed just four runs in 26 1/3 IP. One of those starts came against Baltimore as he became one of the few starters to win on the road in this division rivalry this year. He went 6 1/3 innings and allowed just one run. The Orioles' offense has declined recently, scoring three runs or fewer in five of the last seven games. In his last three starts, Severino has a 0.938 WHIP and 22-3 KW ratio.
Will Rogers
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Miami
The set-up: The Miami Marlins were just 17-30 in games played through May 27 but have since won 10 of 13, inching their way back towards .500. The 27-33 Marlins still have a ways to go and realistically, are a postseason long-shot at best. Miami trails the first-place Nats by 11 games and are 8 1/2 games out in the wild card chase with a ton of teams in front of them. However, for now, the Marlins are averaging 7.1 RPG in their last 10 wins, after winning 12-7 at Pittsburgh last night. Pirates starters Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow combining to allow 14 runs (13 earned) in just in 8 2/3 innings over the first two games of the series, which has forced the bullpen to pitch more than nine innings these last two days. The Pirates are 26-35 (slightly worse than the Marlins) but only trail the first-place Brewers by 6 1/2 games in the NL Central.
The pitching matchup: Dan Straily (4-4 & 3.59 ERA) goes for Miami and Trevor Williams (3-3 & 4.57 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Straily lost his last outing at Chicago, despite allowing just three runs in seven innings. That snapped a stretch of three straight wins in which he had a 3.57 ERA. Straily has a nice run going, having allowed three or fewer ERs in each of his last six outings and owns 69 strikeouts in 67 2/3 innings in 2017. He's made 10 previous appearances against Pittsburgh (seven starts), going 3-3 with a 3.83 ERA (teams are 4-3 in his starts). Williams can make a case that he's been Pittsburgh's best starter this last month or so, having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. The rookie pitched a career-high seven innings at the New York Mets on Sunday and allowed one run and seven hits to earn the win. Williams came out of the bullpen at Miami on April 30 and allowed one run on one hit and two walks in two-thirds of an inning to suffer the loss.but this marks his first start against them.
The pick: Williams has been solid (see above) but the Pirates need him to go deep into this game to give their bullpen a rest. That may be asking a lot against a Miami team which has hit well since the beginning of the Memorial Day weekend. As noted above, Straily comes in pitching wel as of late and I'll back the hotter team (Miami).
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Seattle
Pick: Toronto
The Mariners won 4-2 last night and have now won 10 of their last 12. Despite a 2-8 start to the 2017 season, Seattle is back to .500 (31-31) but playing in the AL West, the Mariners are looking up at the Houston Astros. The Mariners are 7-2 during an 11-game homestand that concludes Sunday and while they have averaged 7.9 runs in their seven victories, they still find themselves 12 games back of Houston. Toronto knows all about slow starts, as the Blue Jays opened 2-11 They got to within one game of .500 on June 4 (28-29) but have now lost three of four.
Marcus Stroman (6-2, 3.25 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto and Ariel Miranda (6-2, 3.74 ERA) for Seattle. Stroman has been Toronto's best pitcher in 2017, allowing two runs or less in seven of his last nine outings. He's won his last five decisions, which includes a 7-2 win back on May 13 against the Mariners, when he gave up two runs on eight hits in his first career start against Seattle.
Not to take a backseat to Stroman, Miranda has won three straight starts and five consecutive decisions while limiting hitters to a composite .219 average on the season. He's coming off his first-ever complete game in his last outing, beating the Rays 7-1, allowing one run on four hits while matching his career high of nine strikeouts. Miranda settled for a no-decision against Toronto on May 14 after giving up one run and three hits with eight strikeouts in five innings (Seattle lost the game), in his only career start against Toronto.
Seattle's playing better at the moment but the Jays have won Stroman's last six starts. Can you say a lucky 7th straight?
Scott Rickenbach
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Brewers +139
Zack Godley and the Diamondbacks got the win over Junior Guerra and the Brewers in Milwaukee two weeks ago in a game that truly could have gone either way. That said, there is a lot of line value here in the rematch with the Brewers available as a sizable dog at Arizona. The Brewers got the 8-6 win yesterday at Chase Field and are now 3-1 in their last 4 games and have averaged 6 runs and 11.5 hits per game during this hot streak. Even though the Diamondbacks are starting to score runs again, they still aren't exactly hitting "lights out". The fact is that the Dbacks had a huge 15 hit performance in a big win Thursday but, other than that, in their other 7 games so far in June Arizona has averaged only 6.4 hits per game! Guerra has allowed only 15 hits in his 19 and 2/3 innings this season and Godley has given up 20 hits in his last 19 innings. Godley has given up 3 earned runs in 2 of those 3 starts. Not bad of course, but again not really earning he and the Diamondbacks the big money line price they have been given Saturday. The Brewers are 16-10 (+$11,300) on the road this season and the Diamondbacks are 23-38 (-$15,000) in Saturday games the past 3 seasons combined and I look for their Saturday record to drop to 3-7 this season in another over-priced spot here!
Brad Diamond
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -200
Okay, the Orioles have done well with Tillman against the Yankees, and the RHP did manage a 4-1 decision at NY allowing 4 hits and just one run in his last challenge. However, we note the FAVORITE in the series has won 10 straight in 2017. And with the Yankees coming off three straight wins, scoring 25 runs to support, we'll back NY to survive against the frustrated O's.
Tony George
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Over 8½
A couple of bottom feeders going at it which always make the side play tricky, as Kansas City who lost last night 6-3 are favored on the road which should scare the hell out of anyone, however I like the Total in this game.
Ian Kennedy has a 9 ERA in his last 3 starts and Diaz for the Padres has a season long ERA of 7.50. While KC has issues at the plate I see them posting up more than the 3 runs they managed last night against Diaz and I have no doubts the Padres swill get plenty of runners in scoring position this afternoon. I expect at least 10 runs+ here.
Chase Diamond
Oakland Athletics +111 Game 1
This free premium play has the 26-34 Oakland A's at the 32-31 Tampa Bay Rays. Oakland has lost 2 in a row and were taken apart 13-4 last night they will want to get out and win game 1 of this double header today. Sonny Gray as been working his way back as the A's ace and I think you will see a big game out of him today. He went 7 strong in his last game and this plus money is to good to pass on.