SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA +106 over N.Y. Mets
First game of a double-header features Robert Gsellman against a rookie southpaw named Sean Newcomb. Gsellman is a work in progress that is worth watching. A strong groundball profile is a good place to start but his WHIP of 1.54 reveals the risk in backing him. Gsellman still needs strand % luck working in his favor because there is too much traffic. His 19/44/ BB/K split in 57 innings is workable but that high WHIP and oppBA is not. Some minor tweaks and Gsellman’s stock will rise but for this one game, we’ll take our chances with Atlanta’s rookie.
Sean Newcomb was Atlanta's #6 prospect entering the 2017 season. Keep in mind that Atlanta's system is one of the deepest in baseball so his rating likely would be higher in many, if not most, MLB systems. So far in 2017, Newcomb has been toiling for Triple-A Gwinnett where he has a 2.97 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. The elephant in the room, as it has been for most of his professional career, is his control. In those 57.2 innings, he has walked 33 batters and for his entire minor league career, he was walked 186 batters over 348 frames. That’s too many. This kid with electric stuff cannot throw the ball over the plate with consistency. Last year, Newcomb emerged as a bona fide Top-50 prospect as a member of the Angels organization. Part of the Andrelton Simmons trade last off-season, Newcomb found a new home with Atlanta. Pitching for Double-A Mississippi, the young left-hander has been dominant at times. When Newcomb's fastball is on, it is unhittable. Throw in a deadly 12-6 curveball and opposing hitters stand no chance. That is at least until Newcomb gives them a chance by losing the strike zone and that’s the risk here. If he’s throwing strikes, Newcomb and the Braves are a great bet because he’ll be able to dominate most lineups, even one’s at this level. If he can stay around the strike zone, Sean Newcomb has the stuff to be an All-Star and even though it’s a gamble, he’s worth it as a home dog.
SEATTLE +106 over Toronto
Marcus Stroman has good year-to-date numbers, but his skills have tailed off recently. Stroman hasn't thrown a pure quality start since April. He has handled left-handed hitters consistently all year though and that skill could help him today against the middle of the Seattle lineup. Still, the Mariners' offensive rating is sky high at the moment and so is their form so this is a challenging matchup for Stroman. While his skills have been good, his swinging strike rate has reverted to its pre-'16 norms (9.1% swing and miss rate) and he's not attacking the strike zone very well (56% first-pitch strike rate, 35% ball %). In spite of his extreme groundball profile, Stroman's chances of a breakout won't be great until he can miss more bats and also get batters to swing at stuff outside the zone.
Ariel Miranda is 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA after a dozen starts. He has a BB/K split of 24/61 over 67 frames but his solid 65% first-pitch strike rate suggests better control is forthcoming. This is a talented young pitcher that is gaining more confidence with each passing start. His WHIP is declining and is now down from 1.29 over his first six starts to 1.17 after 12 starts. Miranda has a BB/K split of 13/31 over his last 31 innings with an elite 16% swing and miss rate. After missing all of the 2014 season because of his defection from Cuba and spending 2015 in the minors, Ariel Miranda finally made his major league debut in July of 2016, finishing with a 3.88 ERA over 58 innings. A month short of one-year later and this kid is showing positive signs across the board including the intangible ones like confidence, maturity and poise. Indeed they’ll be some growing pains along the way but he has the talent and as a dog at home, Miranda and the Mariners offer up great value.
Miami -1½ +144 over PITTSBURGH
Fading the Pirates is rarely a bad idea and with the Marlins being one of the hottest teams in the game, we’ll come right back on them here against Trevor Williams. Williams is a rookie that has now appeared in 12 games with the last six coming as a starter. Williams has been knocked around in the majors (career 5.88 ERA), but a little over a run's worth of that can be attributed to bad luck on strand % and hr/f. His higher K-rate in the majors has led to more acceptable command but most of that growth has come as a reliever. He has 8.9 K’s/9 in 20 innings out of the bullpen but only a 5 K’s/9 over six starts. Just about everything in the 25-year-old Williams's skill history screams "average pitcher." His 4.72 xERA so far in the majors suggests he barely has enough to stick around and he’ll likely bounce back and forth between relieving and starting. Williams will almost certainly get booted out of the rotation once Jameson Taillon is ready to return so he’ll feeling a bit of heat today as well. He’ll now face a red-hot offense.
Miami scored 12 times last night. They have now won 10 of its past 13 games and will send their best pitcher to the hill here. Dan Straily is dealing it right now. He has a BB/K split of 7/32 over his last 30 innings with the support of a 13% swing and miss rate. With a 3.59/3.91 ERA/xERA split, a 1.09 WHIP and 69 K’s in 68 innings, Straily has found a nice groove. The Marlins bats should do the rest.
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Oakland +115 over TAMPA BAY
This is the first game of a double-header and after getting smoked last night and getting smoked often on the road all year, the Athletics are tough to get behind but we’re going to do exactly that because the value is there. Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Sonny Gray’s playing time last year (10 weeks over 2 DL trips). His control and hr/f ballooned sending his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Even so, his K-rate, first-pitch strike rate and groundball rate stayed solid, giving hope that with health, 2016 can be forgotten but so far that hasn’t been the case—on paper.
Gray has 2-2 record after seven starts (he started the year a month behind everyone else) with a 4.57 ERA. Pitching half his games in Oakland makes that ERA look even worse. However, under the hood, Gray is finally starting to resemble the budding rotation anchor that he used to be. Underneath his near-5 ERA are 8.1 K’s/9, 2.6 BB’s/9 and a 60% groundball rate. He missed bats at a decent clip (11.3%) and got ahead of hitters (65% first-pitch strike rate) at a good clip too. Gray’s low 64% strand rate is the reason his ERA is high. We’re paying attention to his outstanding 3.05 xERA over his last five starts. If you want to speculate on a former high-upside starter with great value, this is a good place to do so.
Erasmo Ramirez (RHP, TAM) toes the rubber for start number 6. Though he faces the same OAK team as Andriese, Erasmo Ramirez has only completed the 6th inning in one start and has only made five on the year after appearing 12 times in relief. Ramirez’s 2016 move to the bullpen was essentially a remix of previous years in shorter takes. He’s a pitcher without a role. He’s appeared in 162 games since 2012 with 68 of those being starts.
Lefties and long flies have always been problematic even though he’s a groundball pitcher. Neither role has uncovered anything hidden in his skill set so he’ll likely be more valuable to his team than he is to us. Ramirez will have some good outings and some bad ones and we have no idea which it’ll be today. At this point, it's hard to envision him as anything but just a pedestrian arm. What we know for sure is that Gray is the superior pitcher taking back a tag.
Jimmy Boyd
Royals vs. Padres
Play: Royals -115
I really like the value here with the Royals as short road favorite against the Padres. San Diego won the opener 6-3 on Friday, but I like their chances of evening up the series with a comfortable win today behind starter Ian Kennedy, who is very familiar with Petco Park, spending two years with the Padres in 2014-15. It's been a rough start to 2017, but Kennedy had a 3.68 ERA in 33 starts last year with KC and his 1.283 WHIP on the season suggests he's thrown the ball a lot better than his 0-6 record and 5.33 ERA.
Even if Kennedy isn't at his best, still a good chance the Royals score enough here to win this game. Padres are sending out Miguel Diaz, who is making his first career start. Prior to this, Diaz pitched 24 innings over 21 relief appearances and had a 7.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Transititioning from reliever to starter takes time at least in terms of the number of pitches you can throw, so don't expect Diaz to go deep in this one, even if he throws well. That will get us into a Padres bullpen that has a 4.76 ERA.
DOC'S SPORTS
Orioles vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -208
Yankee Stadium is the site of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees on Saturday, June 10, 2017. The probable starting pitchers are Chris Tillman for the Orioles and Luis Severino for the Yankees.
Baltimore opens at +165 while New York opens at -175. The Orioles have a 29-27-2 over/under record and a 28-30-0 run line mark. The Yankees are 36-21-0 against the run line and have a 32-25-0 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 29-27-2 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 28-30-0 against the run line
Important New York Yankees Betting Trends
The New York Yankees are 32-25-0 against the over/under
The New York Yankees are 36-21-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 31-27 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Chris Tillman has a 1-3 record with an earned run average of 5.59 and a WHIP of 1.83. He has 19 strikeouts over his 29 innings pitched and he's given up 38 hits. He allows 11.8 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 5.21. The bullpen has an earned run average of 3.84 and they have given up 211 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .256 against the bullpen and they've struck out 197 hitters and walked 80 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 9.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.3 batters per nine innings. They are 19th in the league in team earned run average at 4.39. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 552 base hits and 256 earned runs. They have allowed 72 home runs this season, ranking them 15th in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 210 batters and struck out 428. They have walked 3.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.3 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.45 and their FIP as a unit is 4.56.
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Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .253, good for 11th in the league. The Orioles hold a .425 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .307, which is good for 25th in baseball. They rank 9th in MLB with 8.9 hits per game. Adam Jones is hitting .259 with an on-base percentage of .300. He has 57 hits this season in 220 at bats with 28 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .436 and an OPS+ of 96. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .286 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .336. He has totaled 59 hits and he has driven in 31 men in 206 at bats. His OPS+ is 127 while his slugging percentage is at .519. The Orioles have 516 hits, including 96 doubles and 83 home runs. Baltimore has walked 152 times so far this season and they have struck out 523 times as a unit. They have left 391 men on base and have a team OPS of .732. They score 4.48 runs per contest and have scored a total of 260 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
New York has a 34-23 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 2.90, Luis Severino has a 4-2 record and a 1.07 WHIP. He has 76 strikeouts over the 68.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 57 hits. He allows 7.5 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.16. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.94 and they have given up 127 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .193 against the Yankees bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 205 batters and walked 69 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 7.9 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. They are 4th in the league in team earned run average at 3.65. The Yankees pitchers as a team have surrendered 446 base knocks and 207 earned runs this season. They have given up 66 home runs this year, which ranks 23rd in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 165 hitters and struck out 525 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 9.2 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.20 while their FIP as a staff is 3.77.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .268, good for 3rd in the league. The Yankees hold a .456 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .344, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 3rd in MLB with 9.4 hits per contest. Aaron Judge comes into this matchup batting .330 with an OBP of .436. He has 65 hits this year along with 41 RBI in 197 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .670 with an OPS+ of 190. Starlin Castro is hitting .319 this season and he has an OBP of .354. He has collected 74 hits in 232 at bats while driving in 33 runs. He has an OPS+ of 123 and a slugging percentage of .491. The Yankees as a unit have 534 base hits, including 91 doubles and 90 homers. New York has walked 219 times this year and they have struck out on 512 occasions. They have had 419 men left on base and have an OPS of .800. They have scored 5.53 runs per game and totaled 315 runs this season.
Jack Brayman
Looking for my fourth straight comp winner, after hitting the Minnesota Twins over the San Francisco Giants last night. Today I'm playing the St. Louis Cardinals on the Run Line, over the Philadelphia Phillies.
That's because the Phillies have lost three in a row, and are a dismal 9-24 road mark after last night's 3-2 loss to these Redbirds.
St. Louis, which has struggled through a tough spell, is in a good spot to turn back a recent losing streak with a huge series against the lowly Phils. The Cardinals should shut down this lineup, with the league's third-best home ERA at 3.15.
Look for the better team to prevail here, as the Cardinals will dominate and win another over St. Louis.
2* CARDINALS -1.5
Brad Wilton
Your comp play winner for Saturday is the Over in the Orioles-Yankees game.
These teams have played 10 times now this season, and the Over is 9-1.
Included is their May 30th meeting that featured Chris Tillman and Luis Severino on the hill. Those same 2 pitchers will work the mound tonight, and while Severino has really pitched well this season for the Yankees - 2.90 season ERA - the same cannot be said for Chris Tillman who the Yankees roughed up for 5 runs on 7 hits in just under 3 innings of work on that May 30th start. It is part of a 7.90 ERA that Tillman sports over his last 3 starts.
For the season, Tillman's ERA is 5.59, which doesn't bode well against an attack like New York's.
With last night's Over, the O's are now 7-3 Over their last 10 games, while the Yanks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the posted price.
Orioles-Yankees to do what they have been doing against each other this season, and that is to play Over the total.
4* BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Jeff Benton
Saturday free play winner goes from Safeco Field, as I back Toronto and Seattle to play Under the total with Marcus Stroman and Ariel Miranda on the mound.
In case you are asleep when the M's play this year, you should know that Mr. Miranda has been quietly turning in a strong first half of the season. Miranda has gone 3-0 his last 3 times to the mound, and he has done so with an ERA of just 2.37. 2 of those 3 turns on the mound have played Under the total. For the year, the Under is 8-4 when Miranda starts. That includes his May 14th turn at the Rogers Centre when he worked 5 innings in a no-decision against the Blue Jays, but allowed only 1 run while striking out 8.
Stroman has gone 2-0 is last 3 starts, including a win at the New York Yankees in his last effort. On the road this year, Stroman owns a 4-0 mark with an ERA of just 3.34. He will be making his second start of the year against the Mariners, with his first coming back on May 13th when he worked 6 innings of 2 run ball, while striking out 9 Seattle batters.
I get this feeling this game could turn into a pitcher's duel as the night unfolds in King County.
Jays-M's Under the total.
3* TORONTO-SEATTLE UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Minnesota Twins, as they come into this matinee with the San Francisco Giants after a 4-0 win in the series-opener.
Honestly, it's entirely up to you if you want to list pitchers, but I will tell you that I'm taking Jose Berrios over Jeff Samardzija. It's a free pick, so there's not much to this one, except I'm not a fan of Samardzija, so that's my lone reasoning on that.
But also, Berrios looked good in his last outing, bouncing back to allow two runs on six hits over six innings, after recording his first loss on May 30. He makes his sixth start of the season since being called up on May 13 from Triple-A Rochester, and I think he'll be motivated by his team's recent play.
I, too, am intrigued with how well the American League Central-leading Twins have played this year, particularly on the road. Minnesota, which is a dismal 12-18 in Minneapolis, is 18-9 while staying in hotel rooms.
Meanwhile, the disappointing Giants have lost eight of their past 11 games, and is now 13-15 at home while sitting near the bottom of the National League West, just a half-game ahead of the San Diego Padres.
Take Minnesota, as it continues this Interleague series with another win.
4* TWINS
Mid American Sports
Tigers +182
Tigers have seen lots of Chris Sale in the past from his days as a White Sox pitcher, and they have hit him. Add to that Justin Verlander has a history of pitching well in Fenway, and I'm willing to take the chance on this big line here.
Astros -1.5 +125
Angels/Astros Over 9.5
The Astros have lost 3 of their last 4, but the O has not been their problem. Pitching, especially the bullpen, has been atrocious. Mike Fiers will give up some runs, but fortunately, the Angels send out Ricky Nolasco who will give up a big bunch of runs to this Astros offense. I also look for the Astros to bounce back after last night's big loss.
Harry Bondi
MIAMI (+105) over Pittsburgh
Classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Pirates are a train wreck right now, losers of four straight and eight of their last 11. The Marlins, meanwhile, are playing their best ball of the season, winning three in a row and 10 of their last 13. Miami starter Daniel Straily struggled early this season, but has pitched much better as of late with a 3.32 ERA in his last three starts. Take the hotter team at the plus price!
Bob Balfe
Mariners +105
It has been the Mariners who have been crushing the baseball as of late. It’s nice to see Seattle starting to hit the ball well after so many seasons of having such a weak offense. Toronto has not really gotten the bats going this year and have been poor against left handed starters.
Wunderdog
Texas @ Washington
Pick: Texas +161
The Texas Rangers have a strong offense at #12 in baseball in runs scored. They pounded out 13 hits in a 5-2 win to begin the series Friday night, winning two of the last three games as underdogs. Texas has scored 18 runs the last three games, topping Washington as a +160 dog last night. The Rangers are 21-8 in interleague games, 9-1 against the NL East, plus 19-7 in interleague road games against winning teams. The long West Coast road trip has taken a toll on Washington, losing two of the last three while scoring just nine total runs. It's difficult to back starter Gio Gonzalez as a big favorite, as he doesn't pitch many innings with high pitch counts, walking 37 in 74 innings this season. The team is 2-4 his last six starts. He has walked 29 his last 41 innings, never going past the sixth inning. The Nationals are also 4-12 in Gonzalez's last 16 starts when their opponent scores 5+ runs in their previous game.
Stallone Sports
Yankees -1.5 -115
The Yankees are red hot at the plate right now and are set to tee off on Chris Tillman today at Yankee Stadium. Tillman’s numbers in his last 3 starts have been downright ugly; 0-3, 13 innings pitched, 7.90 ERA, 22 hits, 12 ER’s, 7 strikeouts, 8 walks, 4 HR’s allowed, a .429 OBP, and a 2.20 WHIP. His fastball velocity is down about 3 mph from where it was at the beginning of the year which is a major red flag. Its a warm day in the Bronx with the wind blowing out to left centre which spells disaster for Tillman and the bullpen behind him who hasn’t been very good as of late. The O’s have given up at least 5 runs in 6 straight games. On the other side, Luis Severino can do no wrong right now. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0, 1.27 ERA, 17 hits in 21.1 innings, 22 SO’s to only 3 BB’s and 1 HR. The O’s have struggled on the road this year going 10-18 and are only 3-13 in their last 16 on the road. Meanwhile the Yanks are 20-9 at home and are red hot at the plate, scoring 25 runs in their last 3 games. I see an easy blowout win for the Bronx Bombers, the price is steep, but justified and worthy of a big play IMO.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland at Tampa Bay
Pick: Oakland
The last three outings by Oakland's Sean Manaea have been superb, a stretch in which he has allowed just 3 runs over 20 IP and has recorded a 24:5 K:walks ratio. Matt Andriese makes his first start for the A's since coming off of the DL due to a groin strain.
BRANDON LEE
Minnesota at San Francisco
Play: San Francisco -146
This line opened at San Francisco -121 and has skyrocketed up near -150, despite the majority of the action (number of bets) coming in on the Twins. I'll gladly pay a little extra and side with the big money here. Giants give the ball to Jeff Samardzija, who has really thrown the ball well of late and is certainly much better than his 2-7 record in 12 starts. Twins will send out Jose Berrios, who is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA in 5 starts, but is trending in the wrong direction with a 4.67 ERA over his last 3 outings. Minnesota is also just 5-19 in their last 24 games after allowing 3 runs or less in 2 straight games.
RAY MONOHAN
Blue Jays vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners +105
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners face off again on Saturday and the home team has a ton of value in this one. The Mariners have been playing really well as of late winning nine of their last eleven games. They are crushing the cover off the ball and that has led them to a lot of victories.
In this game the Mariners have Ariel Miranda on the mound. He comes into this game with a 6-2 record and an ERA of 3.74. He has been dominant in his last five starts. He hasn't given up more then two runs in any of those games and it has resulted in three wins. Last game out he pitched a complete game 4-hitter. Some trends to note. Mariners are 6-1 in Mirandas last 7 starts on grass. Blue Jays are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs. a left-handed starter.
I think they will ride the good pitching and the bats to get a victory in this one.