DAVE COKIN
RANGERS AT MARINERS
PLAY: MARINERS -140
First off, the line I’m using here is a consensus number as this game has a pretty wide variance right now. I played it at -132, although most of the shops were at -135 when I sent the play out to my clients. It has since gone up at several stores, and is actually as high as -151 was I’m writing this piece. The average price presently is -140, so I’ll grade it at that price as far as the free play ledger is concerned.
As for the game between the Rangers and Mariners, this is mostly about James Paxton. I believe Paxton rates a follow off his last start. The Mariners lost that game 3-1, but two of the runs allowed by Paxton were pretty much thanks to a botched play at the plate by his catcher. Paxton was otherwise pretty sensational, with several triple digit heaters. I made up my mind off that start to play him in his next outing. This lefty has always had a live arm, but injuries and command issues have slowed his progress. Whether or not one start is a harbinger of things to come remains to be seen. But I do know this. If Paxton can command his triple digit missiles as he did against Cleveland, he’s going to start winning plenty of games.
Colby Lewis has had some astonishing good fortune all season, and I suppose that’s a worry of sorts. But Texas hasn’t been as prolific with the sticks on the road against lefties, and the Mariners have some really good offensive numbers against righties, particularly lately. Bullpen data favors the Mariners if it comes to that.
There’s no question whatsoever that I’m running with the smallest sample possible here on Paxton. Off the early wagering on this game, I’m clearly not alone in that regard. But the way I see it, this is a guy with a chance to take off, and if that happens to be the case, better to try and arrive when the party is starting than after it’s already underway and all that’s remaining is expensive table scraps. I’ll back Paxton and the Mariners tonight.
Sleepyj
Phillies / Nationals Over 7.5
These lineups know these pitchers..They have seen each pitcher three times already this season...The more looks each team has had, the more runs they have scored...I can see a elite pitcher being able to make the proper adjustments to confuse a lineup, but these two don't fit that bill...Roark hasn't been razor sharp this year and the Phils getting another look in a short period of time leans me to him getting hit up enough here...Same goes for Nola...Nola is a live arm, but the Nats lineup is deep and powerful...He got smoked by the Nats to open the season series and he is 1-2 vs the Nats this year..The bats on both side had it going last night as both teams put up 15+ runs combined...This number will only go up and I feel good grabbing 7.5 here..We might just see early exits for both guys here.
Rob Vinciletti
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play:Yankees -115
The Yankees fit a 22-6 power system that plays on home teams off a home favored win and scored 4 or less runs with a total that was 10 or more against an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits like Detroit. Yanks have won 5 straight and are averaging over 6 runs the past week. Tanaka has a solid 2.37 era and Verlander has a 5+ road era. Play on NYY.
Mike Lundin
Tigers vs. Yankees
Play:Yankees -110
The New York Yankees recorded a fifth consecutive win, their sixth in seven games, when they shut out the Detroit Tigers in a 4-0 victory last night. I like the Bronx Bombers to repeat that success in Saturday's contest.
Masahiro Tanaka (3-1, 2.76 ERA) will take the ball for the Yankees. He's held opponents to a total of four runs on 20 hits covering 27 innings in his past four starts. Tanaka posted a 4.77 ERA in two meetings with Detroit last year, but he also recorded 12 Ks through 11 1/3 innings of work.
The Tigers turn to Justin Verlander (5-5, 3.97 ERA) who's been better home at Comerica Park than on the road where he's 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA. He faced New York once last year, absorbing the loss while surrendering six runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings.
Tigers are 0-8 in Verlander's last eight road starts vs. Yankees. Yankees are 5-0 in Tanaka's last five home starts.
Marc Lawrence
Astros vs. Rays
Play:Rays -125
Edges - Rays: Chris Archer 2.03 ERA at home as opposed to 6.75 ERA away this season, and 7-2 last nine team starts during June. Astros: Mike Fiers 0-4 with 7.71 ERA and .67 WHIP away team starts this season, and visiting team 2-9 in Fiers starts this season. With Archer 4-1 in his career team starts in this series, including 2-0 at home, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Scott Spreitzer
Astros vs. Rays
Play:Rays -126
The Rays, winners in six of their last seven games will send Chris Archer to the mound to battle the Astros. Archer struggled earlier this season, but he's pitched quite well at home where he owns a 2.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and .190 BAA. The right-hander has recorded 39 strikeouts in 31 IP at Tropicana Field in 2016. Archer has dominated the Astros, allowing just 3 earned runs and 23 base runners, with 34 strikeouts in 33 2/3 IP. In fact, the right-hander owns a .127 BAA in those five starts. Houston counters with Mike Fiers, who has been a mess on the road in five appearances, including four starts. His team has dropped each of his last five road starts, overall. The Rays will look to extend their winning streak to seven straight at home over the Astros and to 22-6 in their last 28 meetings, overall. We believe they'll get it done.
Jim Feist
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Over 8
Cleveland has been roasting the baseball on offense, the over is 9-2-1 in the Indians last 12 during game 1 of a series. The Angels are home and 15-5-2 over the total against a right-handed starter. Starter Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 5.40 ERA) is struggling, allowing four runs in 7.2 innings in Monday's loss to the Yankees. He allowed eight hits and struck out six without walking a batter.
Matt Josephs
Oakland at Cincinnati
Play: Oakland +128
Daniel Mengden makes his long awaited MLB debut on Saturday as the A's take on the Reds. Mengden is 5-1 with a 1.19 ERA in 11 starts over AA and AAA. The righty has 67 strikeouts to just 22 walks in 68.1 innings of work. The scouting reports say that he has four pitches and his offspeed stuff complements his fastball which can go as high as 98. The Reds are putting up good offensive numbers right now, but they are just 1-7 in interleague games. Oakland's bullpen has some reliable pieces should they get a lead late. Daniel Straily has allowed 10 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts and is the picture of mediocrity. Oakland is scoring 4.1 runs per game in the day time and has a lineup capable of doing some work in this one. The big reason I like the road team is the Reds bullpen which is putting up historically awful numbers.
Bob Harvey
Chicago vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta +265
Reigning Cy Young award winner Jake Arrieta looks to rebound from his first loss of the season when he leads the Cubs into Atlanta to battle the Braves. The Braves took Friday’s series opener 5-1 providing backers with a +184 payday.
The Cubs (41-17, 36-22 RL) have lost Arrieta’s last two starts – scoring a total of two runs in those contests – after winning the previous 24 games he started. He was charged with the loss Sunday against Arizona, marking his first regular-season defeat since July 25 last season.
Despite owning the worst record in the National League, the Braves (17-42, 24-35 RL) have won two of three meetings this season with the Cubs – who own the majors’ best mark. Atlanta has also won two straight following a six-game losing streak.
Arrieta (9-1, 1.80 ERA) struggled against Arizona, allowing three runs and nine hits over five innings, though he did punch out a season-high 12 strikeouts. It was just the fourth time in 12 outings this season the veteran righthander had failed to record a quality start. Arrieta is 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four starts versus the Braves and pitched 13 scoreless innings over two meetings against them last season.
Matt Wisler (2-6, 3.98 ERA) will oppose Arrieta and like the Cubs ace, also has eight quality starts. The 23-year-old faced the Cubs last season and was roughed up for seven runs in 2 2/3 innings.
Chicago is 7-1 in the last eight meetings but is just 2-8 in the past 10 meetings in Atlanta.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles at San Francisco
Prediction: San Francisco
The Dodgers and Giants sent Kershaw and Cueto to the mound Friday night and the expected happened. Kershaw pitched eight innings, allowing two runs with 13 Ks and not a single walk. Cueto matched his eight innings and also allowed two runs with eight Ks and zero walks. The game was decided in the 9th on a solo HR by LA. The win allowed the 33-29 Dodgers to move within three games of the division-leading 36-26 Giants, heading into Saturday's middle game of the three-game set between these longtime rivals.
Saturday’s pitching matchup features Scott Kazmir (5-3, 4.46 ERA) and Jeff Samardzija (7-4, 3.33 ERA), pitchers who each team invested “big bucks” on over the offseason. Kazmir struggled twice in head-to-head meetings with the Giants over the first two weeks of the season, each time matched up against Cueto. He never saw the fifth inning in either start, allowing six runs in a 9-6 defeat in San Francisco and four runs in a 4-3 home loss. The successive losses dropped Kazmir's career record against the Giants to 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA in four starts (teams are 1-3).
However, Samardzija has faced the Dodgers three times in his career and come up short on all three occasions, allowing 11 ERs in 17.1 innings (5.71 ERA) in going 0-3. One of those matchups came April 17, when Joc Pederson's two-run HR was the difference in a 3-1 Giants loss. Both Kazmir and Samardzija have struggled against these respective opponents but overall, San Francisco starting pitchers have gone 13-4 with a 2.13 ERA since May 11. Expect the Giants to bounce back with a win here.
Big Al
Oakland vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
Reds RHP Dan Straily will get his first start tonight against the team that first drafted him in 2009 and for which he played his first 2 1/2 seasons in the Majors. And after bouncing around to Chicago and Houston, Straily is now starting to show the promise that he had in his first two seasons as a member of the Reds. Straily is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 appearances, which includes 10 starts. He still walks too many batters - which has always been his problem - but he's also gotten his hit rate way down this season (6.3 per nine IP). Cincy is among the leaders in runs (58), home runs (17), and batting average (.306) for the month of June. Meanwhile, the A's are 5-19 in their last 24 road games.
Brandon Shively
Oakland vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Oakland
The Cincinnati Reds are not going to be a favorite often. In fact, this will be only the 10th time they have been a favorite this season. In this rare occasion, I want to look to fade the Reds and I think this game poses some advantages on our side.
The Reds will have Dan Straily on the mound, who used to pitch for the Athletics in 2012-2014. I think that the Oakland offense could possibly have the advantage in this matchup. Oakland’s pitching coach, Curt Young, was with Oakland in 2012-2014 when Dan Straily was with the Athletics also. Young should be able to tip the Oakland hitters on what to expect from Straily.
Daniel Mengden is making his first MLB start for Oakland on Saturday. A lot of times, the pitcher has the advantage here as opposing betters don’t have any history of facing the pitcher. If Mengden can control his emotions, then Oakland will be in position to win this game. Mengden has a 3.9:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 7 AAA starts this season with a 1.39 ERA. He has a 15-5 record with a 2.87 career ERA in 3 seasons in the Minors in All Levels.
The Reds bullpen already has 12 blown saves this season with a 6.71 ERA. That’s another reason why I like to take a closer look when the Reds are a favorite. Speedster Billy Hamilton is also out for the Reds. I like the value with Oakland getting plus money Saturday afternoon.
Art Aronson
Costa Rica vs Colombia
Pick: Under
With the knowledge that it’s already secured its spot in the next round, we look for surging Colombia to go up early and then control this one until the final whistle. In our opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest. Colombia is already 2-0-0, 6 points, while Costa Rica is 0-1-1, 1 point. Costa Rica on the other hand was humiliated in an 0-4 setback to the United State at Soldier Field in Chicago and will be out to atone for that horrendous outing. Los Ticos concentrate on the defensive side of the ball, if the team is going to lose to Colombia, they won’t want it to be by such a lop-sided amount. It’s a great situational play, as Colombia is contented with its position and will be looking to limit the damage today, while Costa Rica comes in with a chip on its shoulder, determined not to get embarrased on the national stage again.
Strike Point Sports
San Diego at Colorado
Play: Colorado
Colorado continues to pile up runs on offense, but their pitching is still allowing too many as they are searching for some answers. Tyler Chatwood (7-4, 2.79 ERA) is giving them hope as he has won two out of his last three starts at home, beating the Mets and Giants, who are two of the best teams in baseball. Chatwood shut out the Padres already this season, going eight innings, allowing just three hits while striking out seven. Luis Pedermo will have the ball for San Diego and he has been a spot starter for them at times this season but mostly working out of the bullpen. Pedermo has allowed at least one run in 16 out of his 21 appearances including 6 earned runs on 8 hits (2 home runs) over 4.1 innings to the Rockies on Sunday at PETCO Park. San Diego are looking like sellers now that they are off to another brutal start (24-35) after sending James Shields to the White Sox, and I'm sure they will be looking to trade away other assets to build for the future and clear some cap space. The Rockies will be playing at home and they have won four out of Chatwood's last five starts and I like them to pick up the win in this contest.
MARTIN GRIFFITHS
Costa Rica vs. Colombia
Play: Over 2½
Colombia and Costa Rica face one another for the final Group A match of the Copa America Centenario, and supporters can expect an entertaining match with more than 2.5 goals scored.
Group leaders Colombia have already secured their progression to the knockout stages after winning both matches against the United States and Paraguay. However, Los Cafeteros will be seeking for a third successive victory to continue their momentum and are unlikely to go easy on their opponents. Colombian playmaker James Rodriguez has been a stand-out star for the team, scoring twice in the Copa America so far and providing a boost in their performances. An average 3.6 goals have been scored in Colombia’s previous 5 fixtures, and another high-scoring result is almost certain again this evening.
Costa Rica will be disappointed in their Copa America record this year, having failed to score during their opening draw against Paraguay, as well as their heavy defeat to the US. The absence of goalkeeper Keylor Navas has been devastating for the team, as the Real Madrid star has often been the main factor preventing large scorelines. Oscar Ramirez’s squad will almost certainly throw everything into attack in a desperate bid to earn something from the tournament, opening the game up and providing more goals for spectators.
Overall, I believe that the fixture between Colombia and Costa Rica will be an entertaining spectacle with more than 2.5 goals scored.