SCOTT RICKENBACH
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Under 8
The Indians finally got their sticks going again in last night's game but let's not forget that this was a Cleveland team that had averaged only 2 runs and 5 hits per game in their 4 prior games! The Indians now have to face Matt Shoemaker who has struck out 37 while allowing only 8 earned runs in his last 4 starts spanning 30 and 1/3 innings. The Angels right-hander also has had great success against the Indians as he has held them to 2 earned runs while striking out 20 in 14 innings in his two career starts against Cleveland. The Indians will have their own "strikeout machine" on the road for this one as well. Trevor Bauer gets the start and he is off of a start at Seattle where he struck out 10 while allowing just 1 earned run in 7 and 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has a 2.45 ERA in his two career outings against the Angels who come into this game "scuffling" at the plate. The Angels have lost 5 straight games and were held to 3 runs or less in 4 of those games. In those 4 games the Angels averaged only 5.5 hits per game. This one shapes up to be a pitchers duel at pitcher-friendly Anaheim. The under in Los Angeles home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs is 54-37 the past three seasons combined. The under is 5-1 in Indians road games this season where they are a dog of +100 to +125. Before yesterday's game snuck over the total, Cleveland had gone 7 straight games without an over. The under trend resumes tonight.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY -130 over Houston
We ride Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer at home where he has been stellar this season, posting a 2.03 ERA, as opposed to his overall 4.68 ERA. Archer is also 3-1 with a 0.80 ERA in his career against Houston and after another win in the series last night the Rays are now 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between these two teams. Houston is also 1-7 in domes the last three years and a money-eating 2-12 (-10.8 units) on artificial turf.
Bruce Marshall
Yankees -121
The Yankees continued their torrid homestand with a 4-0 win over the Tigers last night and look to continue the momentum tonight against the Tigers. Justin Verlander has not had much luck lately in the Bronx, ripped in his lone start at Yankee Stadium last year when allowing six runs and ten hits (including three homers) in just 6 2/3 IP. he's 0-3 with a 4.82 ERA vs. New York since 2013. Note that Yanks starter Masahiro Tanka has allowed just 4 runs in his last 27 IP.
Bruce Marshall
Rangers +143
Very intrigued with Texas and starter Colby Lewis, who has failed to go at least six innings just once in 12 starts, and has allowed three runs or more just three times. Lewis is also 3-0 with a 1.41 ERA in five road starts this season and won at Safeco Field back on April 11 when allowing just one run and four hits thru 6 IP in an eventual 7-3 win over the Mariners. Seattle starter James Paxton is throwing lots of heat (17 Ks over just 9 2/3 IP in his two efforts to date) but has also allowed 15 hits in that span.
Bob Balfe
Rays -125
I like the pitching match up today for Tampa. Houston has struggled on the road this year and Fiers just does not have much power this season as he doesn’t strike many batters out. Archer has pitched great at home for the Rays this year and should outlast Fiers today.
Ray Monohan
Pittsburgh Pirates +100
The Pirates and Cardinals continue their weekend series and it's the home team with the value here. Francisco Liriano goes for the Pirates here and he's had solid career success against the Cardinals. Liriano is 7-2 in his career, with an ERA of 2.41. He took down the Cardinals on May 6 as he struck out 10 over 7.0 innings.
The Cardinals go with Carlos Martinez, who has struggled versus Pittsburgh. He has gone just 2-4 and has an ERA of 4.57. Martinez lasted just 3.1 innings against them in the May 6th game against Liriano as he exited with fatigue. Pittsburgh has been a solid home team this season as well, going 18-13 while scoring nearly 5 runs per game.
Some trends to consider. Pirates are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Pirates, at home, against Martinez here is a solid play. The Pirates have played extremely well as of late too, which gives them plenty of value.
Brandon Lee
Indians vs. Angels
Play: Under 7.5
I'm expecting a low-scoring game tonight between the Angels and Indians, as we have two starters facing off that seem to have figured things out. Los Angeles will give the ball to Matt Shoemaker, who has a 3.13 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Cleveland counters with Trevor Bauer and his 3.05 ERA and 1.161 WHIP in his last 3 outings. UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in Bauer's last 9 road starts in the first half of the season and 10-0 in his last 10 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. UNDER is also 20-7 in the Angels' last 27 home games after going over the total in 2 or more consecutive games.
John Ryan
Royals vs. White Sox
Play: Royals +130
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 71-62 over the last 5 seasons good for 54% winners and made 40 units/unit wagered. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (KANSAS CITY) - terrible offensive team (under 4.2 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA under 4.20) (AL), with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. KC is a money winning 62-37 (+26.9 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 136-102 (+26.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. CWS are a money losing 8-18 (-13.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons; 35-50 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. Quintana is 4-13 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Fundamental Discussion Points Kansas City is 5-2 (+3.8 Units) against CWS this season. Jose Quintana has lost five consecutive starts and allowed a season-worst five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers in his last start. He has a 9.64 ERA in June. Quintana also struggles when starting against Kansas City going 1-7 with an ERA of 4.34 and a WHIP of 1.319. Danny Duffy's team's record is 8-3 (+5.1 units) when starting against CWS with an ERA of 3.93 and a WHIP of 1.182. The Royals can bounce back especially in this starting pitching matchup.
Jimmy Boyd
Reds -125
Cincinnati is showing some decent value here as a small home favorite against the A's on Saturday. The Reds are playing well with a 6-3 run over their last 9 games, including last night's 2-1 win in the series opener against the A's. Oakland on the other hand is in a major funk right now. They have lost 6 straight and are hitting just .237 as a team during this stretch.
I'll take my chances here with the A's sending out Daniel Mengden for his first career start. Not only is Mengden going to have to deal with the nerves of pitching for the first time in the big leagues, but he has to do so on the road at hitter friendly Great American Ball Park. Reds will counter with Daniel Straily, who has a respectable 3.36 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 10 starts. In his most recent start, he gave up just 2 runs on 2 hits in 7 innings at home against the Nationals.
A's are 4-12 in their last 16 after scoring 2 runs or less and 4-18 in their last 22 road games against a right-handed starter. Reds are 9-3 in their last 12 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-1 in Straily's last 5 home starts.
Power Sports
Texas vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The oft-quoted run differential says the Mariners are the better team here as they've outscored opponents by 58 runs this season while the Rangers are "only" +35 in that same department. That's after a 7-5 Seattle win last night. The way this line has moved triggers a recommendation for me.
Even though nearly two-thirds of the tickets written for this matchup are on the first place Rangers, the line has moved nearly 30 cents in the other direction, which is a strong indication that "sharp" money is hammering the home team. Again, only four teams have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this year than has Seattle. Two of those are the Cubs and Red Sox. It's odd to see a team this good have a losing record at home. But I expect that to change considering the M's are outscoring teams by 0.7 runs per game at Safeco Field. It's not like they don't play well here.
Rangers' starter Colby Lewis has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, but he's very lucky to have that as he has a pedestrian 4.76 ERA and 1.353 WHIP during that time. He got away w/ allowing six runs in just five innings to the Angels on May 25th, then last time out gave up four runs in a 6-5 win over Houston, a game that could have gone either way. Seattle's lineup might lead the league in batting average vs. lefties (.250), but they're even better against righties (.268) and there's a lot of power in this batting order as a different player has hit multiple HR's in four straight games! James Paxton is Seattle's starter for Saturday & he looked great in his second start of 2016, holding Cleveland to only five hits and two of the three runs that scored were unearned. He also struck out 10 batters.
Dave Essler
Oakland +130
I'm seeing +130 start to pop up - if it's not something that becomes widely available I'll grade it at whatever. Not only have the Reds never seen Mengden - he's just very good. In seven games at AAA Nashville he had a WHIP of 0.838 - which is sick. He hasn't been giving up the long ball - (three in 68 innings this season) - then we've got Straily (against his former team) who's become a flyball pitcher of late (wrong park for that) and then, there's the Cincinnati bullpen. Too much value here.
Chip Chirimbes
Indians at Angels
Play: Angels
The last 10 days have been totally different for these two clubs as the Indians have moved to 8-2 in June and the Angels have lost five straight and seven of their last nine. Los Angeles finds themselves nine games below .500 and 11 games behind Texas in the AL West. Matt Shoemaker (3-7, 5.40 ERA) who is 1-4 with a 5.51 ERA at home has had four straight quality starts losing his last two decisions but pitching to a 2.37 ERA with 37 strikeouts and no walks in that span. He is also 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his two career starts against Cleveland.
Brad Wilton
My Saturday comp play winner is the O's-Jays "bird battle" to see some runs scored with Mike Wright and JA Happ doing the mound-work.
Thursday the teams combined for 11 runs and the Over.
Last night did hold Under the total, but the Orioles have still landed Over the posted price in 6 of their last 10, while the Blue Jays are 3-3-1 Over the total in their last 7 games.
Baltimore starter Mike Wright is coming off his best start in quite some time, as he worked 7 scoreless innings against Kansas City. Prior to that solid effort, the Over had connected in 5 straight Wright starts. Wright's road ERA stands at 5.91 for the season.
As for JA Happ, he just allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in his short 5 innings worked at Detroit. Happ also sports a home ERA of 4.50 with 4 of his 5 home starts at Rogers Centre this year playing Over the total.
Bats make contact this afternoon, Orioles-Blue Jays Over the total.
2* BALTIMORE-TORONTO OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 67-58 run with free picks: Kansas City at CHICAGO (-1', +130).
The STORYLINE in this game today - I don't know what is going on with the Kansas City Royals, but they've fallen off since taking over first place in the American League Central, and once again are mired in an ugly losing streak. So tonight, I want to play the Chicago White Sox on the Run Line, as they're going to take advantage of the reeling champs.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Royals are hitting just .241 this month, the 11th-worst batting average in June. Funny thing is, the White Sox have the fifth-worst batting average, a .226 clip. But since Kansas City can't buy a win, and the Pale Hose are throwing Jose Quintana, I don't mind laying the run line.
1* WHITE SOX -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Tigers and Yankees to get settled in for a good, old-fashioned pitchers duel between Justin Verlander and Masahiro Tanaka.
Verlander has worked at least 7 innings in each of his last 6 starts, and he has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of those 6 starts. The Under has cashed in 3 straight, and is 4-0-1 the last 5 times he has trotted to the hill.
Tanaka has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 4 starts, and the Under has banked in all 4 of those starts. For the season, Tanaka has seen the Under cash in in 9 of his 12 starts.
Expect the bats to remain on the quiet side in the Bronx on Saturday night, as the Tigers and Yankees play this one Under the posted price.
5* DETROIT-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER