Free Picks for Saturday, June 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ROYALS AT ANGELS
PLAY: ANGELS -130
The Angels are still searching for a way to beat the Royals. KC scored an earlier series sweep at home, and now they’ve won two in a row at Anaheim.
There’s no such thing as perfect when it comes to sports betting, and that includes in the system realm. But here’s something to consider when sizing up tonight’s game.
Teams in revenge mode from an earlier sweep have done quite well this season. Fact is, not one of these teams has failed to get at least one win in the return matches. Actually, these teams have been virtually perfect in avoiding back to back losses in the rematch series.
The exception thus far has been these Halos, who have now dropped the first two of this series with the Royals. The “system” side would therefore be the Angels in tonight’s game.
I don’t ever advocate blind angle plays, as each game should be broken down on its own merit, or perhaps lack thereof. But I made this number a shade higher than where it’s currently priced, so I will side with Angels to get off the mat with a bounce back win over the Royals tonight.
Mike Lundin
Giants vs. Rockies
Play:Rockies -156
We won with the Colorado Rockies as a premium play on Friday, and I'm going back to the Rockies Saturday afternoon when they host the San Francisco Giants for Game 3 of a four-game series.
Colorado has won eight of nine meetings on the season and hands the ball to left-hander Kyle Freeland (7-4, 3.57 ERA) who was knocked around for five runs (four earned) in 5 2/3 innings in a 7-1 loss at Pittsburgh his last time out. I'm not worried about Freeland though, he's pitched well throughout the season and will most likely receive plenty of run support, plus the fact that San Francisco has struggled against southpaws all season.
Matt Cain (3-5, 5.22 ERA) will take the ball for the Giants, and he was tagged with five runs and seven hits through just 4 1/3 innings in a no-decision against Minnesota in his last start. Cain is a pathetic 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA in six starts on the road this season, and pitching at Coors Field will do him no favors.
The Giants are 0-4 in Cain's last four starts vs. the Rockies and 3-12 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.
Ray Monohan
Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Under 8
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets face off on Saturday afternoon and the under has a ton of value. On the mound for the Nationals is Stephen Strasburg who has been really good this year. In his last start he had some trouble against the Braves, but this is a great game for him to bounce back. Before that start he had given up a total of three runs in his previous three starts. He looks like the Stephen Strasburg of old that is absolutely fooling hitters out on the mound.
On the mound for the Mets is Seth Lugo. He has made one start giving up one run in seven innings pitched. Some trends to note. Under is 5-1 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East. Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York.
Stephen Nover
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +147
I understand it's tough to get behind the Reds right now. They've lost seven in a row and have rookie Asher Wojciechowski pitching. The Dodgers are playing well with seven wins in their last eight games.
But Cincinnati is an attractive home 'dog to me at this price.
How's that?
Let's begin with who the Dodgers are pitching. It's Hyun-Jin Ryu. He's on the comeback trail from elbow and shoulder injuries that limited him to one start last year. I don't think Ryu is long for staying in LA's starting pitching rotation with a 2-6 record and 4.42 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-7 during Ryu's past seven road starts.
Ryu got to face the Reds just this past Sunday at Dodger Stadium, a much more pitcher-friendly stadium than Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park. The Reds got to Ryu for four runs on six hits - including three homers - in four innings before Ryu was pulled.
The Reds lead the NL in steals and rank seventh in the majors in homers. They have five players with nine or more homers.
The Dodgers are just mediocre on the road at 17-16.
The key is can Wojciechowski turn in a quality start? I believe he can. He's proven himself so far at home with a 1.86 ERA at Great American Ball Park. Wojciechowski last pitched at home against St. Louis on June 5, two starts ago. He held the Cardinals to two runs on eight hits with six strikeouts in six innings. The Reds' bullpen is upgraded with Tony Cingrani back healthy.
Dodgers ace closer Kenley Jansen carries a fatigue rating having pitched in three of the last four days.
Cappers Club
Chicago at Pittsburgh
Play:Pittsburgh +120
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs face off on Saturday night, and with the pitching match up on the mound and this price, the Pirates have some value.
On the mound for the Cubs is Jake Arrieta who hasn't been as dominant as years past. He comes into this game with a 6-4 record but a high ERA of 4.68.
In his last start he only went 4.1 innings and gave up four earned runs. I would expect much of the same to happen in this game.
On the mound for the Pirates is Ivan Nova who has been pitching really well this year. He comes into this game with a 2.83 ERA.
In his last start he went six innings only giving up one hit and zero earned run. I think he will find a way to slow down the bats of the Cubs.
Some trends to note. Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 road games. Pirates are 4-0 in Novas last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Ben Burns
Cubs vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8½
Jake Arrieta is 6-4 with a 4.46 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Ivan Nova is 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Arrieta is looking to rebound after a sub-par start against Colorado on Sunday, earning a no-decision after giving up four earned runs off five hits and three walks. He also struck out three. Arrieta had posted back-to-back quality outings previous to that though and his peripherals (9.74 K/9 and 4.10 FIP) and track record both suggest that he should be able to return to form sooner rather than later. Nova comes in off a gem against Miami on Sunday, going six scoreless, allowing just one hit while striking out four. The veteran needed just 77 pitches (50 of which went for strikes), so he’ll be fresh for tonight’s game (note that Nova is 4-2 with a tiny 2.29 ERA at home this year as well). Looks like we have a pitchers duel on our hands in this one.
Art Aronson
Royals vs. Angels
Play: Over 9
“Gas cans” collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a classic “slugfest:”
Jake Junis: He’s 2-0 with a 4.67 ERA. Junis most recently gave up three runs off six hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Padres on Sunday, lucky as all three runs were dingers of the solo variety. It was the first time as well that he’s completed more than five innings, failing to do so in his first two major league tries. In his previous outing he was rocked for seven runs off nine hits over three innings in a loss to the Astros.
Alex Meyer: He’s 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA. Meyer is also coming off a “ho-hum” outing, allowing two runs off five hits and five walks over four innings in a no-decision against New York on Monday. Meyer has now issued at least four walks in five of his last eight trips to the hill and 29 total free passes in 40 innings of work.
The bottom line: Both starters are struggling with control right now. Recent form between these pitchers suggests that these line-ups are poised for a productive evening.
Marc Lawrence
Padres vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -152
Edges - Brewers: Anderson 1.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season; and 4-1 last five home team starts during June… Padres: 2-8 Saturdays, and 3-7 away Game Two of a series this season; and Lamet 8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season… With Anderson in strong KW form with 19 Ks and 3 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Jesse Schule
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Over 9½
The Red Sox beat the Astros in a 2-1 pitcher's duel at Minute Maid Park in Game 1, but I expect Game 2 to be more of a slugfest.
Rick Porcello will toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he's not missing many bats this season. Porcello (3-8, 4.67 ERA) allowed five runs on 10 hits in six innings in a home win over Philly his last time out. He's conceded a whopping 66 hits over his last seven starts, and opponents are batting .310 against him in 2017.
The Astros hand the ball to David Paulino, who hasn't been sharp in three appearances. The 23 year old was torched for five runs on six hit and two walks over four innings in a 12-6 home loss to the Angels his last time out. He's failed to reach the fifth inning in two of his three starts, and he's been taken deep at least once in all three of those games.
Prior to last night's game, these two teams had gone over in six straight meetings. They've gone over in eight of the last 11 at Minutemaid Park, and the over is 9-4 in Porcello's last 13 road starts versus a team with a winning record.
Teddy Davis
Padres vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½
Like the Over and the value we are getting here as both teams in the public's eye are bad offenses. While that may be true, right now both are hitting the crap out of the baseball.
The Brewers have scored 27 runs their last 4 games combined. They are sending out red hot Chase Anderson, but my money is on him slipping up here as he can't keep up the pace he is going on.
The Padres are swinging red hot bats also scoring 24 runs their last 4 games. Lamet has just been terrible as he has an ERA over 11 his last 3 starts. His road ERA is 9.00.
Brandon Shively
Dodgers at Reds
Pick: Over 10.5
The Dodgers offense is one of the best in baseball. They are especially dangerous against right handed pitching. They'll face Asher Wojciechowski in this one. He's not good enough to slow down this Dodgers lineup. The Reds bullpen is spent right now, and they have had some really ugly numbers of late.
Ryu was a good starter for the Dodgers a few years ago. He isn't anymore. His control hasn't been good and hitters are squaring him up consistently.
Expect a high scoring game here as both teams put up a big number.
Jim Feist
Rays at Tigers
Pick: Under
This is a big park great for pitchers and Tampa Bay has ace Chris Archer going, with 114 Ks in 92 innings. The Under is 4-1 in Archer's last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Detroit starter Michael Fulmer (3.40 ERA) has walked just 16 in 79 innings and this shapes up as a pitcher's duel.
Bruce Marshall
Mariners at Rangers
Pick: Rangers
Stirring a bit all of a sudden are the Rangers, now up to .500 and in second place in the AL West after routing the Mariners 10-4 on Friday. Will give a look again to Texas and starter Martin Perez, who has been a bit up-and-down this season but is still 13-6 at Rangers ballpark since 2014. He looks a better option than Seattle's Yovani Gallardo, who has allowed a whopping25 runs over 25 IP (9.00 ERA) in his last five starts.
Andrew Marchenko
Tartu FC Santos vs. MT SK FC Levadia Tallinn II
Play: Tartu FC Santos +220
Tartu has won decisevely (5-1, 1-3) last two games between these two teams. In the league table they are neighboring each other so there is no reason to put Levadia as such a big favorite in this match. Tartu has way more chances than the bookie gives them