DAVE COKIN
ARIZONA AT PHILADELPHIA
PLAY: UNDER 7
In terms of current form this is the best starting pitcher matchup on the Saturday board, and by a pretty good margin. Zack Greinke has really rounded into form after a slow start with his new team. We’ve seen what happens when he finds his groove, so I would definitely expect a good game from Greinke today.
Jared Eickhoff is pitching very solid ball for the Phillies. His numbers are pretty legit looking, and his past three start game score average is actually the second best on the board today. The only three-game average that’s superior belongs to Greinke.
Not much on the weather front to discourage here, low 80’s with a very light breeze that doesn’t figure to be impactful. The Diamondbacks had a big offensive outburst on Friday night, but the fact they blew up Adam Morgan wasn’t exactly shocking, and I like Eickhoff to quiet those bats for the most part today.
The number on the game is obviously pretty low, especially for a game at a ballpark that can be a hitter’s haven at times. But it’s a game where if the two starters continue their most recent patterns, runs figure to be at a premium. I’ll gamble on the Diamondbacks and Phillies to stay Under the posted Total.
ROB VINCILETTI
Rangers vs. Cardinals
Play: Under 8½
The Cardinals have stayed under in 3 straight at home of a home loss and scored 2 or less runs. Texas has gone under in 5 of 6 as a road dog in this range. This game fits a solid system that has cashed 19 of 24 times to the under since 2004 and plays under for certain home favorites off a 1 run loss with a total that was 8 or less if they had 4 or less hits and 0 errors, The Cards have C. Martinez going and he has a solid 1.61 era in his last 3 and he opposes Texas right N. Martinez who makes his first start this season. St. Louis has gone under in 4 of the last 5. Play this one under.
JACK JONES
New York Yankees -133
The Yankees put to end a 4-game losing streak with their win yesterday, a 4-1 victory over the lowly Twins. Minnesota is 20-46 on the season after losing three straight coming in.
I'm going to take the Yankees today behind Michael Pineda. He's 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts, so he's obviously coming around. Pineda is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA in three career starts against Minnesota.
Ricky Nolasco has been terrible all season, going 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts. Nolasco is 0-2 with a 6.50 ERA in six road starts as well. Nolasco is 1-1 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two career starts against New York as well.
The Yankees are 14-4 in their last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Twins are 20-50 in their last 70 overall.
MIKE LUNDIN
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Play: San Francisco +115
We won big with the San Francisco Giants as a Top Rated 10* selection last night, and I'm backing the Giants once again on Saturday, this time as a lower rated free pick.
Albert Suarez (2-1, 3.33 ERA) will take the ball for San Francisco, and he's been showing some good stuff here his first season in the major leagues. He's posted a 1.04 WHIP over 27 innings of work covering eight appearances (two starts). He'll be backed up by a well rested bullpen after Jeff Samardzija's complete game in yesterday's 5-1 victory.
The Rays turn to Matt Moore (3-4, 5.05) who's coming off seven scoreless innings against Houston, but he had surrendered at least four runs in four of his previous five outings. This will be Moore's first career meeting with the surging Giants who are averaging six runs during a six-game winning streak.
Giants are 8-1 in their last nine games vs. a left-handed starter and 12-3 in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
MARTIN GRIFFITHS
Portugal vs. Austria
Play: Austria PK½
Both these teams had very disappointing opening games and even though Portugal are the favourites there is no reason to think they will be any better than the Austrians today.
Portugal of course have Ronaldo, but that is half their problem, they are far too reliant on him, if he does not perform, they do not perform, Austria are far more of a team.
Portugal are the better team it must be said, but they have so many vulnerabilities about them that you can never trust them.
I expect a tight game today and will be taking Austria on the spreads, that puts the draw in my favour as well, for this pick to lose Portugal must win and there simply is no guarantee of that whatsoever, not with this Portuguese team.
MARC LAWRENCE
Rockies vs. Marlins
Play: Rockies +102
Edges - Rockies: Tim Chatwood 7-0 last seven starts in day games, including 6-0 this season, and 6-0 with a superb 0.65 ERA and 0.84 WIP away team starts this season. Marlins: Wei-Yin Chen 5.01 ERA and 1.40 WHIP home starts this season. With Chatwood 6-1 team starts as a dog this season, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
JIM FEIST
Nationals vs. Padres
Play: Under 7
Petco Park is a big park and the San Diego offense is terrible, No. 21 in runs scored, No. 29 in on-base percentage. Washington has ace Max Scherzer (8-4, 3.40 ERA) going, fanning 118 in 95 innings. Scherzer was dominant against the Cubs in a 4-1 win Monday, allowing just one run on two hits while striking out 11 without a walk over seven innings. The Under is 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Washington has never faced San Diego starter Colin Rea. The Under is 36-17-5 in the Padres last 58 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.
SPORTS WAGERS
Portugal -½ -113 over Austria
This group F match features two teams coming off disappointing first matches. The group favorite Portugal, came out aggressively and dictated play for the first 45 minutes but were only able to build a one goal advantage. Iceland was able to equalize early in the 2nd half and then somehow was able to survive the onslaught. Portugal put an astounding 26 attempts toward goal to Iceland's four, dominated possession 72%-28%, had an 11-2 corner count in their favor, AND tossed 33 crosses into the box. Although this game ended in a draw, it may be the most unjust result so far in the tournament.
Austria kicked off their tournament in similar fashion, coming in as a significant favorite over Hungary. This game was very even throughout with neither team holding a significant advantage in any area except the final score. After Hungary broke through in the 62nd minute, Austria started pressing, playing very irresponsibly and receiving a red card immediately. From there, Hungary dictated play and cruised to a 2-0 win.
The Hungary result should not have been as shocking to everyone as it was. Austria's recent form has been anything but impressive going 2-4 in their past six, with only wins coming against Malta and Albania. Austria has a team that has a couple known commodities including one of the top Full backs/roaming midfielders in the world in David Alaba. Other than him and Leicester City's Fuchs, this Austrian team is not very deep, and talent wise cannot compete with the powers such as Portugal.
Portugal entered the tournament as significant favorites to win their group, and with the way this team has performed in the past major competitions, combined with their talent pedigree, anything but a deep run in the knockout stages would be a major disappointment. For the first time over the past few euros, Portugal has a fantastic supporting cast for the most talented player in Europe. After Ronaldo come the likes of Nani, Moutinho, Pereira, Caravalho and Pepe. All of these players play major roles in their domestic leagues, and it is only a matter of time before this talented group gel to make a major run at the title.
There is no disputing the talent discrepancy between these two squads. Given Portugal was able to manhandle an equally inferior opponent in Iceland, but could not produce the three points, there is no reason to believe they don't come out in this match with a chip on their shoulder, extra motivated to take the Austrians out of the tournament with a defeat. The price for a top power such as Portugal in this situation is extremely appealing and we're not about to pass it up.
Larry Ness
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Brewers and Dodgers have split the first two meetings of their four-game series at Dodger Stadium, after Justin Turner hit two solo HRs and then connected on an RBI single with the bases loaded to drive in the game-winning run of a 3-2 victory over the Brewers in 10 innings last night. The not so good news for LA Friday night was that the Dodgers struck out 16 times! LA is 36-33 and trails the Giants by 6 1/2 games in the NL West heading into tonight’s contest against the 31-37 Brewers, who have already fallen 15 1/2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central.
Chase Anderson (4-6, 4.42 ERA) and Mike Bolsinger (1-4, 5.76 ERA) are tonight’s starting pitchers. Anderson started Monday at San Francisco, where he received a no decision in the Brewers 11-5 loss (5 IP / 4 ERs). He is 3-1 with a 2.75 ERA over his last six starts but on the season, Milwaukee is 5-8 in his 13 starting assignments. Anderson is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers (teams are 2-4). He compiled a 2.12 ERA in three starts against them last season but did not earn a decision in any of those games (teams were 1-2). He owns a 1.96 ERA in four career starts at Dodger Stadium but has yet to win.
Bolsinger is coming off a loss June 13 against the Arizona D’backs. Bolsinger struck out five with no walks, allowing three runs on five hits in 4.2 innings in a 3-2 Dodgers' loss. He’s 0-1 with a 4.67 ERA three career starts against the Brewers (teams are 1-2). The bad news for LA is that Bolsinger has dropped three consecutive starts and has a 6.60 ERA during that span. He has served up two HRs in each of his past two outings and has allowed seven HRs in just 25 innings this season.
starts.
However, Milwaukee is just 1-4 on its current nine-game West Coast road swing, dropping them to 12-20 on the road in 2016 (outscored on average, 5.09-to-3.75 RPG). Take the home team.
Will Rogers
Arizona vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Arizona
Arizona crushed the Phillies in Game 1 of this series, and the D'Backs have now won four of six. The Phillies have now lost eight of their last nine overall, and facing Arizona's ace today looks like a tough spot to break out of this slump. My money is on the D'Backs.
Here are my keys to game:
1. Pitching - Zack Greinke is on fire, coming into Philly off six straight wins. Greinke (9-3, 3.75 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits, fanning six in seven innings in a home win over the Dodgers in his last start. He owns the Phillies, going 5-0 with a 2.80 ERA in his last five starts against them.
2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Philadelphia's lineup is batting a woeful .183 in a combined 71 at bats in previous meetings with Greinke, and during that span they struck out 25 times mustering just 13 hits.
3. X-Factor - The Phillies are 6-20 in their last 26 overall, and 1-6 in their last seven games versus a right-handed starter.
Jesse Schule
Colorado vs. Miami
Pick:Colorado +1.5
The Rockies wasted a solid effort from Jon Gray in Game 1 of this series in Miami, but they send another talented young pitcher to the mound in Game 2. We could see another pitcher's duel here at Marlin's park, but I've spot some interesting data in the home/away splits for both pitchers.
Tyler Chatwood will toe the rubber for the Rockies, and he's been flat out dominant away from Coors Field. Chatwood (8-4, 2.89 ERA) allowed three runs on six hits over 6 2/3 innings in a home win over the Padres his last time out. He's a staggering 5-0 with a 0.65 ERA in six starts on the road this season, and 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six starts in day games.
The Marlins hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has not missed many bats lately. Chen (4-2, 4.68 ERA) has given up a whopping seven home runs in his last two starts. He's been far better on the road (3-1, 4.29 ERA) than he has been at home (1-1, 5.01 ERA).
The Marlins are 7-3 in Chen's last 10 starts, but four of those wins came in games decided by just one run.
MMA OddsBreaker
Bosse vs. O'Connell
Pick: Bosse
Straight up, this is a fight where the first man to land a big shot is going to win. I firmly believe that man will be Steve Bosse. He's quicker, more explosive and more athletic than Sean O'Connell so I expect him to land a good shot without getting hit.
Sleepyj
Yankees -136
I like the Bronx Bombers here today...Pineda at times can be very good...Often times a weaker lineup can get him going..I feel good in this spot Vs. Twins lineup with him today...Yanks bats got it going again last night and they very well can continue that hitting again today...Nolasco can be decent at times, but he should give up his 3 or 4 ER...Twins pen might come into play early if the Yanks are hitting well early and we can get a few more in that area as well..Bullpens are way off as the Yanks are rock solid in that dept...If the Twins don't get after Pineda early, he will settle in and the Yanks bats and pen get us the W.
Greg Shaker
Brewers / Dodgers Over 7.5
This number is down from 8 and very much playable now at 7.5 or better. Despite the Under Venue here and the Dodgers not displaying great offensive talent this season, we like this play. Chase backed down to his usual last game and the LAD pitcher has just not been that good. Other reasons have us on this play on this number as well..
Harry Bondi
PHILADELPHIA +150 over Arizona
Zach Greinle has been lights out for Arizona lately but we think there is value in backing Philadelphia's Jerak Eickhoff. He has allowed just one run on five hits in his last 13 innings of work against two very good teams with strong offenses, the Cubs and Blue Jays. Diamondbacks offense is average at best and we think the Phillies pull it out against the D-backs bullpen. Big Dog cashes!