RAY MONOHAN
Washington Nationals -1.5
The Nationals and Padres continue their weekend series and Washington holds solid value here laying the 1.5. The Nats send out ace Max Scherzer, who has been dominant over his last 3 starts. Scherzer has allowed just 12 hits over his last 3 starts while sitting with an ERA of just 1.23. Over that 3 start span he's struck out 28 to just 3 walks. He is locked in right now and going up against a weak Padres offense here, Scherzer should be in for more success.
Colin Rea for the Padres is trending in the other direction. Rea hasn't recorded a victory in 6 straight starts and comes in off a start where he allowed 8 runs. He's been a mess lately and this matchup just doesn't bode well for him.
Some trends to consider. Nationals are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
This is a nice spot to lay the 1.5. Scherzer will be able to shut this offense down and Washington should get out early against Rea.
BRANDON LEE
Angels -118
I like the value here on the Angels Saturday afternoon. Tim Lincecum will be making his Angels debut and first start in the big leagues since last June. I'm not expecting Lincecum to be dominant again, but this is a good spot for him to succeed. He's looked good in his minor league starts leading up to this one and will be facing an A's team that comes in hitting just .239 against right-handed starters this season. The other big key here is the Angels should be able to provide some run support. Oakland's Andrew Triggs will be making his first ever big league start. He has pitched out of the bullpen and has a not so great 8.00 ERA in 18 innings. Chances are he won't last long and that will get LA into the A's bullpen early.
SCOTT SPREITZER
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Play: Colorado Rockies +123
This line has moved quite a bit toward the favorite (late Friday night). We'll go the other way and back the road dog. Tyler Chatwood is 3-4 at home but he's almost unhittable on the road where he is 5-0 with a microscopic 0.65 ERA allowing just three earned runs in 41 2/3 innings. Colorado has won five of his last six starts, including 5-3 over San Diego last Saturday which came at Coors Field. Wei-Yin Chen has given up nine runs and 16 hits his last two outings in just 11 1/3 innings. He got a win at San Diego even though he served up four home run pitches. Chen is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA at home and the Rockies are ninth in the major leagues with a .764 OPS against left-handers. Colorado has won Chatwood's last seven road starts and the Rockies have won four of their last five games overall. Those last two situations add up to 11-1 combined spots.
JIMMY BOYD
Yankees -135
New York has dominated the first two games of this series, winning 4-1 on Thursday and 8-2 yesterday. I look for another easy win on Saturday with the Yankees sending out Michael Pineda against the Twins Ricky Nolasco.
Pineda is a disappointing 3-7 with a 5.87 ERA on the season, but is starting to show signs of returning to form. He's got a 2.89 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his last 3 starts, which includes 20 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings of work. Minnesota has scored 2 or fewer runs in 3 straight games and are one of the worst offenses in baseball.
While Pineda figures to shutdown the Twins offense, New York should be able to put up a big number here against Nolasco. He's got a 5.12 ERA on the season, but unlike Pineda, he's struggled of late with a 4.65 ERA in his last 3. He's also got an ugly 6.50 ERA in 6 home starts.
Yankees are 11-4 against Minnesota over the last 3 seasons and are 32-19 in their last 51 road day games. Twins are 0-8 on the season when revenging two straight losses where they scored 2 or less.
Power Sports
Brewers vs. Dodgers
Pick: Dodgers
I had the Dodgers last night as they were able to come from behind and take the game, in extra innings, by a score of 3-2. As the last two nights have shown, no lead is safe when this miserable Brewers bullpen is in play. But tonight, I actually believe it will be a far more comfortable victory for Dodger Blue.
Quite frankly, the kind of win that Los Angeles earned last night was well overdue. Though their WL record is only 36-33, they have a run differential of +38, which indicates they've played better than the record shows. Tonight's starter Mike Bolsinger has allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start so far and has done the same in 12 of his last 14 outings going back to last season. He might be 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a poor ERA, but his WHIP is a respectable 1.20. Similar to Jose Urias last night, don't be surprised if Bolsinger gives us a quality start here.
Milwaukee simply isn't a very good team and playing on the road, the ML looks low to me. Over the course of the season, the Brew Crew have been outscored by 53 runs. As was the case yday w/ Zach Davies, today they send a pitcher that has - quietly - performed well this year. That would be Chase Anderson, who has a 0.692 WHIP his L3 outings. But Anderson did allow four runs his last time out - in only five innings - and has a 5.02 ERA on the road this year (seven starts). The team is just 2-5 when he toes the rubber away from home this year and offense figures to be a problem for the Brewers here at Chavez Ravine where visiting teams are averaging just 3.1 rpg (.216 BA) in 2016.
Bob Balfe
Blue Jays -105
Blue Jays/Orioles Over 9.5
The Blue Jays are knocking the cover off the baseball. When this team gets into hitting friendly parks they put up 10 runs on the board all by themselves. Baltimore can crush the baseball too and Dickey is a home run pitcher so I expect both teams to trade a lot of big long balls. This Blue Jays team is on fire and I expect their run to continue. Take the Blue Jays and the Over.
Bruce Marshall
Cubs -1.5 -115
Heavy price on Run Line but it has been worth it to do so with the Cubs vs. the Pirates. In the seven meetings since early May, the Cubs have won six of those and the combined score has been 44-14. Jon Lester's ERA has dipped to 1.89 after allowing no runs in 15 IP his last two starts.
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is on the Seattle Mariners over the Boston Red Sox, as I'm relying solely on the right arm of Adrian Sampson in this one. 24-year-old northpaw is expected to be added to the roster prior to the game, as he'll take the place of injured southpaw Wade Miley. Sampson was acquired from the Pirates last July 31 for J.A. Happ, and steps to the hill after a succesful 7-4run, while he fired a 3.25 ERA in 13 starts for Tacoma.
Sampson looks to bolster an overworked pitching staff, while regular starter Wade Miley has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a left shoulder impingement. Designated reliever Steve Johnson has been re-assigned, while relief pitchers Jonathan Aro and David Rollins have been recalled from Triple-A Tacoma to take their place on the roster.
Sampson's arsenal includes a low-90s fastball that he delivers from a 3/4 arm slot. He also mixes in a change and a curve, and while he is labeled as a back of the rotation pitcher, he pitches like a 1 or 2 when he's in a groove. Look for him to surprise the Crimson Hose tonight, and neutralize the lineup long enough to keep the M's in this game.
2* MARINERS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the White Sox and Indians to make their way Over the posted total with James Shields and Danny Salazar on the mound.
It doesn't seem to matter which league he pitches in, James Shields just hasn't been able to find his groove. Shields is making his third start in a Chicago uniform, and thus far he has lasted a grand total of 7 innings while allowing 17 hits and 13 earned runs to score! Throw in his last start for the Padres, and his line reads like this; 23 runs allowed in under 10 innings of work, with 25 hits allowed. ALL 3 of those starts playing Over the posted total.
I know Cleveland starter Danny Salazar is 7-3 with a 2.19 season ERA, but 2 of his last 3 starts have landed Over the posted price.
After last night's series opener (an Under), the White Sox are 16-6-1 Over the total in their last 23 road games, and the Over in this Central rivalry stands at 7-3-2 the past dozen times the teams have played one another.
Pale Hose-Tribe to go Over the total.
3* WHITE SOX-CLEVELAND OVER
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 68-63 run with free picks: Cincinnati (+245) at HOUSTON
The STORYLINE in this game today - Looking for a big game out of Cincinnati's youngster Cody Reed, as the imposing pitchers makes his Major League debut. A 2013 second-round draft choice by the Kansas City Royals, the hard-throwing lefty is a top-5 prospect in the Reds' organization.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - It's always important to give a starting pitcher a look in his big-league debut, as it means several things: he is pumped up for his big day and will work his arsenal to its extent and to the best of his ability. Plus, the opposition doesn't have a real scouting report and is seeing all his stuff for the first time.
BOTTOM LINE is - In 11 starts this year with Triple-A Louisville, Cincinnati's young southpaw has posted a 6-3 record and a 3.20 ERA in 64 2/3 innings. His strikeout and walk rates have remained on par with last year’s numbers. He really is one of baseball's hot prospects, and today he will make a statement with his debut.
1* CINCINNATI
Brad Wilton
Jake Peavy was listed as the starter for this game, but Peavy's back has been acting up, and he will miss this start. In his place will be Albert Suarez who will make only his third start of the season.
Suarez has done well in spot duty, working 11-plus innings of 5 run ball, so look for him to keep his team in the game this afternoon at the Trop.
Matt Moore is looking to build off of his best start of the season, as Moore pitched 7 scoreless innings at home versus Houston in his last start, with just 2 hits allowed, and 10 batters fanned.
The teams opened this weekend interleague set with an Under last night, as the Giants ran their road mark to 12-5-1 Under the total their last 18 away from the City by the Bay.
San Fran has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the total, while Tampa is Under the price in 6 of their last 9 contests.
Runs limited today, Giants-Rays hold Under.
1* SAN FRANCISCO-TAMPA BAY UNDER
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Rangers vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -1.5
Of course I don't lay big money line prices...not even with a free pick...but I do expect St Louis to get the W here so I'll play them on the run line to get the value as I would not be surprised to see this one turn into a Cardinals rout after they were embarrassed by not scoring a single run in yesterday's rare home shutout. That was the 3rd straight loss for the Cardinals and they are 15-4 the last 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. St Louis starter Carlos Martinez gets the starting nod today and the Rangers have never faced him plus he's "in the zone" right now. C. Martinez has a 1.61 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts. Look for the Rangers to struggle with his offerings this afternoon. Texas will have Nick Martinez on the mound and he's been toiling in the minors so far this season. His stats at Round Rock in AAA have not been that impressive this season and I look for him to get pummeled by the Cards in his first start this season. He most recently made an MLB start last fall and N. Martinez was rocked for 7 runs (4 earned) on 11 hits in less than 4 innings of work in that outing. As a home fave of -175 to -200 the Cardinals are 25-6 the last 3 seasons but I don't want to lay that price, I'll grab the value on the run line and look for the St Louis sticks to get back on track this afternoon against an over-matched hurler. 31 of the Cardinals 35 wins have come by at least 2 runs this season so don't hesitate to go for the plus money in what should be a blowout win.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays -103
Even the loss of one of their top sluggers cannot cool off the Toronto Blue Jays, who are mashing opponents into submission behind a franchise record-setting offense. Toronto has scored at least 10 runs in five of the last seven contests and attempts to extend its winning streak to five games at the visiting Baltimore Orioles. Toronto starter, Dickey permitted a total of two earned runs over 12 innings in back-to-back road wins at Detroit and Boston.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND -109 over L.A. Angels
The A's will send 27-year old Andrew Triggs to the mound today for his first start of the season. Triggs has made 10 relief appearances this year and has not fared well giving up 17 runs on 24 hits over 18 innings. However, he also had 18 K’s over those 18 frames to go along with a 58% groundball rate.Triggs was acquired from Baltimore during spring training, and was sent to Nashville in the Pacific Coast League where he has struck out 15 batters in 10.1 frames and walked just two. Triggs throws from a low three-quarters arm delivery and gets ground balls almost three times as much as fly balls. The 6'4", 220-pound Triggs might not be a very hard thrower (a four-seam fastball that reaches the low-90s mph), but batters do not get much off him, with a minors career batting average against of only .218 and a cumulative WHIP of only 1.03. In addition to his two-seam and four-seam fastballs, he throws a cut fastball, a slider and a changeup.
The Tim Lincecum comeback story is a nice one but we are not interested in fairy tales. That's the harsh reality when it comes to the former Cy Young winner. “The Freak” was an amazing pitcher to watch when he was in his prime hurling the ball with all the might his undersized frame could handle. Lincecum's flame burned bright but fast, as he had a couple of the best seasons we've seen from a pitcher in 2008 and 2009 but that was a long time ago. Lincecum left some big bucks on the table and it wasn't long after his body broke down. Injuries (forearm, hip, back) cost him most of last season. September hip surgery to repair impingement and a torn labrum put his career in question. Skills and velocity (87 mph) continued to decline and disaster start percentage was dreadful
There's a reason a team like the Giants, where Lincecum is loved and adored, was not interested in what he brings to the table at this point. The Angels are desperate for starting pitching and in a league where James Shields still has trade value, Lincecum's signing is not a surprise. The Angels will get more publicity and sell a few more tickets with him on the mound than if they went with a lesser known minor league call up. The A's look like an easy target today but this game is as much of a homecoming as any and this is the hottest ticket in Oakland this season. All eyes in the Bay Area will be on Lincecum and it's going to be a lot to ask him for him to perform well. In his three starts at Triple-A Salt Lake City he was 0-2 with a 2.65 ERA and struck out 19 batters in 17 innings but this is the big leagues and the A's will not be looking to make him feel at home
Toronto (5 inn) -104
The Orioles would be better off with Yovanni Gallardo still on the DL. He’ll get back into the rotation only because they are paying him a bloody fortune to pitch. Gallardo has only started four games this season, the last a loss to the Twins on April 22nd where he gave up four runs on four hits over two innings before heading to the DL. We don't need a large sample size to know what we get with this stiff. The Orioles got sucked into signing him because he’s coming off a lucky year. While his career-best ERA last year suggests he rekindled the glory days, Gallardo’s career-worst xERA quickly refutes it. He lost another mph on his fastball (now -2.3 mph since 2011), while his meager swing and miss rate further supports the downward spiral in his overall K-rate. Repeat odds of last year are slim to none but he’s priced like he has a chance to do well when he's one of the most hittable pitchers in the game.
The last time the market stepped up to the window and made a bet on R.A. Dickey he was a big home favorite at home against the pitiful Phillies. Anyone that backed the Blue Jays Monday night were surely steaming after a 7-0 loss. It looks bad but Dickey pitched pretty well through six innings. He left the game on the hook for three earned runs but Toronto gave up three more in the top of the ninth long after the knuckleballer had called it a night. Coming into his last start, Dickey had won two straight against Boston and Detroit while giving up a total of just two earned runs over six innings in those starts. The 42-year old hurler has shown that he can be very effective and is capable of going six strong innings but no more so we will play this one accordingly. The Blue Jays in five innings gives us the best chance to cash this ticket.
Detroit +130 over KANSAS CITY
Edinson Volquez is a groundball pitcher that relies heavily on the Royals defense to help him get outs. His stock is high after his last start where the Dominican native gave up just two hits in seven scoreless innings versus the Indians. Volquez has had some trouble with the Tigers in his career. He's 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA in eight starts and some of the big Tiger bats have enjoy success against him including Ian Kinsler (8 for 20) and Miguel Cabrera (5 for 11). The Royals are rolling with six wins in their last seven games so their stock is at a season high, which makes us sellers.
Matt Boyd's last start was a frustrating one. We like what we've seen so far from the Washington native but he helped the Tigers blow a seven run lead his last time out and it still stings. Boyd came over from the Blue Jays in the David Price trade. He is just 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts. He's got the ability to strike guys out with 20 K’s in 25.2 innings but he also has to cut down on the walks. Boyd has 18 K’s over his last 21 innings. He’s a finesse lefty with good stuff that has excelled at every level he’s pitched at so far. That said, this one is more about fading Volquez against the red-hot bats of the Tigers. After taking the opener of this series, 9-4, the Tigers lost last night 10-3 but they still managed 10 hits.
Dave Cokin
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Play: Colorado Rockies +127
Wei-Yin Chen was showing some progressive signs, but the lefty went backwards in his last two starts. I definitely don't see him as a go with starter right now. Tyler Chatwood has been kind of amazing on the road. His ERA is actually too good to be true in road games at 0.65, but it's still more than respectable when removing the luck factor. This line jumped from the true opener of -110, where it was probably no play material. But now that it's between -135 and -140, I don't see how I can pass on the value. The Rockies at plus money are good here.