Free Picks for Saturday, June 24th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS AT PADRES
PLAY: PADRES -102
No reason to get off the fade Detroit train. I’m now playing against them with a slew of house money and it’s not like I’m about to get scared off with Anibal Sanchez pitching. The veteran righty was pretty good in his return to the majors but was done after five innings.
Rookie Dinelson Lamet has been up and down for San Diego, but three of his five starts were pretty solid, and his stuff is dominating when his command is sharp. In any event, it’s another play against the Tigers, and that means I’m on the Padres again tonight.
Brandon Lee
Athletics vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -104
I'll gladly back the White Sox at home at basically a pick'em against an A's team that is 10-games under .500 on the season and a miserable 10-25 in their 35 road games this season. Chicago is just 32-40 on the year, but the A's are just 16-35 over the last 2 seasons in road games against teams with losing records. Not to mention the White Sox actually own a winning record at home. More than anything is the edge Chicago has on the mound. James Shields returned from the DL and conintued to throw the ball well and now has a 2.42 ERA in 4 starts. Oakland gives the ball to Daniel Gossett, who has made just 2 career starts and his lone road outing wasn't good, as he allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 at Miami.
Mike Lundin
Reds vs. Nationals
Play: Over 9½
Mike Lundin failed to make it four free pick winners in a row on Friday, but he's still 3-1 L4 free picks and Saturday's freebie looks like a clear cut case.
The Cincinnati Reds have won just one of their last 13 games despite scoring a healthy amount of runs. Over is 21-10-4 in the Reds' road games on the season, and I think we'll see fireworks when they visit the Washington Nationals on Saturday.
The Nats won Friday's matchup 6-5 in extra innings and will most likely need plenty of runs again in order to win as they hand the ball to Joe Ross (3-3, 5.98 ERA). The right-hander has allowed nine runs (seven earned) on 18 hits through a combined 11 2/3 innings over his last two starts.
The Reds turn to Homer Bailey who will make his first start of the season coming off an elbow surgery. He was 2-3 with a 6.65 ERA in six starts last year. I don't like his chances here against a Nats team that rank 2nd in the major leagues for runs scored on the season.
Over is 10-1-2 in Reds last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 9-2 in Nationals last 11 overall. Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
Ben Burns
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8½
Recent form exhibited by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands Saturday night. Gerrit Cole (5-6, 4.28 ERA) enters off his best start of the season, giving up one run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in a victory over the Brewers on Monday. Cole has been hit-or-miss all year though, looking briliant at times and very poor in others (note that he’s been at his worst on the road as well, just 3-4 with a 5.01 ERA.) Lance Lynn (5-4, 3.33) was rocked for seven runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Orioles on Sunday. Lynn now owns a poor 1.8 HR/9 and his 5.37 FIP points to possible rockier times ahead. It appears as if these two inconsistent starters could get chased early, so consider the over.
Marc Lawrence
Brewers vs. Braves
Play: Braves -109
Edges - Braves: Dickey 3.22 ERA home as opposed to 7.15 ERA away this season, and 9-2 last eleven overall home team starts… Brewers: Garza 5.30 ERA last seven starts, and 2-7 last nine overall starts during June. With Dickey 12-5 his last seventeen team starts during June, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Kevin Thomas
Angels vs. Red Sox
Play: Angels +1½
JC Ramirez starts for the Angels and has been solid on the road going 4-2. He faces the Red Sox for the 1st time giving him a slight advantage. David Price starts for the Red Sox and were still not sure what your going to get from him.
Art Aronson
Astros vs. Mariners
Play: Under 9
A couple of capable starters go head-to-head in this one and all signs point to a lower-scoring affair:
Lance McCullers: He’s 6-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. McCullers returns from the DL after throwing a couple of bullpen sessions earlier this week. McCullers is in the midst of his finest season of his three year career. He faced Seattle on April 4th and gave up one run off five hits and two walks with seven K’s over six innings. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road this year.
Sam Gaviglio: He’s 3-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gaviglio’s 5.89 FIP suggests that his ERA and WHIP are likely unsustainable over the long-term, but note that the rookie has been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-0, 1.71 record/ERA.
The bottom line: Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four when the total in the contest is either 9 or 9.5, while Seattle has seen the total go UNDER in eight of 14 this season in the same position.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers vs. Padres
Play: Under 8½
I cashed in the UNDER last night with these same two teams and I like our chances of doing so again tonight. I know the starting pitching matchup isn't overwhelming on paper, but mediocre pitchers can look like aces at Petco in the right conditions. Temps will dip below 70 for this one and the wind will be blowing in at close to 10 mph from left field.
Detroit will send out Anibal Sanchez, who pitched well in his return to the rotation, allowing just 2 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings at Seattle. Keep in mind that's against a Mariners lineup that has scored at least 5 runs in 6 straight games. He now faces a Padres offense that has totaled 7 runs in their last 5 games combined.
San Diego counters with Dinelson Lamet, who has been sparatic to say the least in his 5 starts. What stands out to me is the 37 strikeouts in 24 innings, which tells me there's better days to come than the 7.50 ERA he has right now. He was much better in his last outing, striking out 12, while allowing just 3 runs in 6 innings at Milwaukee.
Note the UNDER is now 22-7 in the Padres last 28 home games after scoring 4 runs or less in 4 straight games.
Teddy Davis
Athletics vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -101
Something definitely smells funny with this line but it's hard not to pass up on. Gossett in two starts this season has given up 8 earned runs in just 9 and third innings pitched.
Shields in 4 games this season has found some new life. He has a 2.42 ERA on the year and has been really sharp at home with a 1.69 ERA
Jesse Schule
New York vs. San Francisco
Play: New York -101
The Mets crushed the Giants in San Francisco last night, and they look good in Game 2 with their ace on the mound. Jacob deGrom will toe the slab for New York, and he's coming off a dominant performance in a win over the Nationals his last time out. He went eight innings, allowing one unearned run and striking out six. He went the distance, striking out six in a 6-1 home win over the Cubs prior to that. deGrom is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA in his last four starts against the Giants. San Francisco will hand the ball to Johnny Cueto, who is having a rough year. The right-hander has surrendered a whopping nine home runs in his last six starts, and his 5-7 record with a 4.42 ERA isn't what we've come to expect from him. He has just one win in his last nine starts, the Giants have lost six of those games. Only the Padres have a lower team batting average than the Giants in the National League, and San Francisco ranks 27 in the majors in runs scored. The Giants have lost eight of their last nine home games, and six straight versus a right-handed starter.
Rob Vinciletti
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -145
Tampa blasted Baltimore last night by 10 runs putting up a 15 spot against Baltimore team that has allowed 5 or more runs in 20 straight games. Things don't figure to get much better today as Bundy for the Birds has allowed 9 runs in 7 innings over 2 starts here and has a 7.43 Era vs the Rays. Faria for Tampa is an emerging prospect and should be added in fantasy leagues if available as he has been lights out in his first 3 starts allowing 1 or no runs with a 1.37 Era. The Orioles are 2-9 as a road dog of +125 to 175 and 0-3 on the road off a 5 + run road loss.
Zack Cimini
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Baltimore
A category the Rays continue to ascend in (3rd in MLB) is home runs. Friday they pounded the Orioles starting pitching and bullpen with three home runs and fifteen runs. Factored in with Rays starter Jacob Faria's flawless three outings and there is a bit of inflation here. Grab the value off of Friday's over use of the Orioles bullpen to not be as big of a factor as expected.
Brandon Shively
Detroit vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego
The San Diego Padres are 18-18 at home this year, and this is a team that is playing hard right now. Detroit is a team in a serious tailspin, and they are without a leader in Victor Martinez. Detroit has one of the worst managers in the game, and they appear to have some team chemistry issues.
Dinelson Lamet is a talented youngsters who has some great movement on his pitches. Anibal Sanchez is a washed up starter who has no business in the rotation. The bullpen is a big advantage for San Diego as well.
Big Al
Cincinnati vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Who holds the dubious distinction of being the most injured regular MLB player of the past decade? You would have a hard time arguing against it being Reds RH starter Homer Bailey. Since the 2010 season, Bailey has made seven separate trips to the DL (or basically one per season) and several of those were the 60-day variety. Bailey has always been a full-time starter since coming into the league in 2007 (he has zero relief appearances in the Majors) and yet he's only managed two full seasons - that is seasons where he logged more than 23 starts - out of 11 (including 2017). In the past two seasons coming into 2017, Bailey has made a combined eight starts. He'll try his latest comeback this evening at Nationals Park - not an easy place to try to shake off the rust. Bailey looked good in his Minor League rehab, but there's a big difference between facing AAA hitters and facing the likes of Harper, Murphy, Rendon, and Turner.