Jim Feist
Angels at Red Sox
Pick: Under
LA starter J.C. Ramirez throws strikes, which is key in a park like this. He is 5-2 on the road with a 4.03 ERA. The Angels are 20-7-3 under the total against the AL East. Boston has hard throwing David Price on the mound on a 6-2-1 run under the total at home. And the under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Athletics at White Sox
Pick: Athletics
We have followed the pattern of Chisox starter James Shields over the past few seasons, and almost without fail, once Shields goes sour, he really goes sour over several starts. After a few encouraging efforts, Shields looked shaky last Sunday in a 7-3 loss to the Blue Jays, allowing three runs and seven hits in just 5 2/3 IP. Note that A's starter Daniel Gossett delivered a quality start in his last outing vs. Houston, thought he A's still lost.
Gary Bart
New York at San Francisco
Play: New York +102
The Mets won the first game of this series. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Giants are 1-9 in their last 10. Cueto gets the start for the S.F. He is 5-7 with a 4.42 ERA this season. Both teams have been giving up a lot of runs recently. I like the Mets to make it two in a row over the Giants.
Scott Rickenbach
Houston vs. Seattle
Play: Seattle +155
The Astros are over-priced here. Lance McCullers has great numbers on the season but he has been on the disabled list with back problems. That could flare up again here and he is facing a Seattle team that has won 6 straight games and averaged 8 runs per game! As for the Astros, they will be facing Sam Gaviglio and the Mariners are a solid 6-1 in his starts this season. The right-hander has a 1.71 ERA and minuscule 1.14 WHIP in his home outings and the M's are a perfect 4-0 in those starts! The Astros lineup has never faced Gaviglio while the Seattle lineup will be facing McCullers for the 4th time in the past 12 months! While it is true that McCullers has had success in those 3 prior outings versus the Mariners, it is also true that Seattle's lineup is on fire right now and that McCuller's back is a concern here! The Mariners are 25-13 at home this season. The Astros are only 10-10 the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. The Mariners also are a fantastic 12-3 the past 3 seasons combined in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs.
Handicappers Hub
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -119
Cole is coming in for the Pirates with a 3-4 record and 5.01 ERA on the road while Lance Lynn is 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA at home! This is a clear advantage for the Cardinals and after losing a tight one last night I look for the St. Louis offense to come out and get Lynn some runs early. Look for Lynn to shut down the Pirates and win this low scoring affair at home tonight!
Doc's Sports
Orioles vs. Rays
Play: Rays -138
The Baltimore Orioles visit Tropicana Field on Saturday, June 24, 2017 to play the Tampa Bay Rays. The probable starters are Dylan Bundy for the Orioles and Jacob Faria for the Rays.
The opening line for this matchup has Baltimore at +139 and Tampa Bay at -149. The Orioles have a 38-31-3 over/under record and a 32-40-0 run line mark. The Rays are 39-36-0 against the run line and have a 45-29-1 over/under record.
Valuable Baltimore Orioles Betting Trends
The Baltimore Orioles are 38-31-3 against the over/under
The Baltimore Orioles are 32-40-0 against the run line
Important Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends
The Tampa Bay Rays are 45-29-1 against the over/under
The Tampa Bay Rays are 39-36-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Orioles have a 35-37 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Dylan Bundy has a 7-6 record with an earned run average of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.22. He has 65 strikeouts over his 92 innings pitched and he's given up 83 hits. He allows 8.1 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.64. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.30 and they have given up 285 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .269 against the bullpen and they've struck out 235 hitters and walked 106 batters. As a team, Baltimore allows 10.1 hits per nine innings while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings. They are 30th in the league in team earned run average at 5.1. The Orioles pitchers collectively have given up 723 base hits and 365 earned runs. They have allowed 107 home runs this season, ranking them 5th in the league. Baltimore as a pitching staff has walked 276 batters and struck out 516. They have walked 3.9 men per 9 innings while striking out 7.2 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.55 and their FIP as a unit is 5.11.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Baltimore is hitting .255, good for 13th in the league. The Orioles hold a .430 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .311, which is good for 25th in baseball. They rank 12th in MLB with 8.9 hits per game. Mark Trumbo is hitting .255 with an on-base percentage of .315. He has 73 hits this season in 286 at bats with 33 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .399 and an OPS+ of 90. Jonathan Schoop is hitting .292 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .345. He has totaled 75 hits and he has driven in 44 men in 257 at bats. His OPS+ is 132 while his slugging percentage is at .537. The Orioles have 641 hits, including 119 doubles and 103 home runs. Baltimore has walked 186 times so far this season and they have struck out 653 times as a unit. They have left 476 men on base and have a team OPS of .740. They score 4.49 runs per contest and have scored a total of 323 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
Tampa Bay has a 39-36 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 1.37, Jacob Faria has a 3-0 record and a 0.97 WHIP. He has 22 strikeouts over the 19.2 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 15 hits. He allows 6.9 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 1.51. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.30 and they have given up 234 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .244 against the Rays bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 218 batters and walked 103 opposing hitters. As a team, Tampa Bay allows 8.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings. They are 8th in the league in team earned run average at 4.08. The Rays pitchers as a team have surrendered 646 base knocks and 305 earned runs this season. They have given up 82 home runs this year, which ranks 25th in Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay as a staff has walked 246 hitters and struck out 611 batters. They give up a walk 3.3 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.2 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.33 while their FIP as a staff is 4.10.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .255, good for 14th in the league. The Rays hold a .447 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .329, which is good for 13th in baseball. They rank 13th in MLB with 8.8 hits per contest. Corey Dickerson comes into this matchup batting .326 with an OBP of .365. He has 94 hits this year along with 37 RBI in 288 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .583 with an OPS+ of 153. Logan Morrison is hitting .247 this season and he has an OBP of .356. He has collected 59 hits in 239 at bats while driving in 51 runs. He has an OPS+ of 146 and a slugging percentage of .565. The Rays as a unit have 657 base hits, including 113 doubles and 115 homers. Tampa Bay has walked 273 times this year and they have struck out on 745 occasions. They have had 531 men left on base and have an OPS of .775. They have scored 4.8 runs per game and totaled 360 runs this season.
Harry Bondi
TEXAS (+140) over NY Yankees
There is no way the Yankees, losers of eight of their last 10 games, should be this big a favorite, especially when you consider that starting pitcher Luis Cessa is 0-1 in his one start this season with an ERA of 9.00. Texas is a respectable 9-6 the last three seasons against the Bronx Bombers and 5-3 at Yankee Stadium, so we have no problem taking shot on them here today at this price.
Bob Balfe
Cardinals -125
Both teams have struggled to hit the ball this season so far and are at the middle of the league in batting average against right handed pitching. Lance Lynn has been the better pitcher this season and has given up a lot less hits than Cole. This should be another lower scoring tight ball game. Lynn has been pretty good at home so we will roll with St. Louis tonight.
Jack Brayman
Now on a 12-5 run with my complimentary plays. Let's head to Los Angeles for tonight's freebie, as I like the Dodgers on the Run Line, as they'll get things done against the Colorado Rockies.
On the heels of concluding their six-game road trip by sweeping the Cincinnati Reds, the Los Dodgers opened a nine-game homestand with an impressive sweep of the New York Mets. L.A. scored a 10-6 win over the Mets on Monday, backed it up with Tuesday night's 12-0 blowout, took Wednesday night's contest, 8-2 and then finished off the series with Thursday night's 6-3 victory.
On Friday night the Dodgers opened their series with the Colorado Rockies with a 6-1 victory.
Tonight I'll back the Dodgers, who are now 2 1/2 games in front in the National League West, having supplanted the Rockies atop the division. Los Angeles has won eight straight and 14 of 15. And by doing so, it has seized momentum at the right time, heading into the All-Star Break.
Colorado lost its last three games - at home versus the Arizona Diamondbacks and last night against L.A. - by a combined final of 32-9.
Play Los Angeles on the run line.
1* DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Saturday comp play is Over the total in the Rangers-Yankees matinee.
Quick turnaround for the Rangers and Yankees who opened the weekend last night with just 3 combined runs plated over 10 innings of play for a rather easy - and unusual Under.
Texas is now 6-3 Over the total their last 9 games, while New York has played 3 of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 9 games Over the posted total.
The pitching matchup of Austin Bibens-Dirkx and Luis Cessa suggests that the Over trends the teams are currently on will continue this afternoon in the Bronx.
Bibens-Dirkx has pitched just under 30 innings and has an ERA of 4.25, as 2 of his 3 starts this year have played Over the total.
Cessa is strictly a stop-gap for Joe Girardi, and his lone start this season (last week in Oakland) yielded 4 runs on 5 hits in just 4 just 4 innings worked.
Expect the bullpen to be active early for New York, and expect the runs to add up in this Rangers-Yankees game to another Over.
Texas-New York Over on Saturday afternoon.
3* TEXAS-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Brad Wilton
Saturday free play winner is Baltimore and Tampa Bay to land Over the total.
Last night saw Tampa Bay roll to a 15-5 win over Baltimore, and it marked the 20th straight game the Orioles have allowed 5-runs or more. The Over going 14-5-1 in those 20 straight games the O's pitching has been shelled.
I don't see any relief in sight today, as Tampa Bay is also on an Over clip on their own. The Rays have gone 12-2-1 Over the total in their last 15 games played with last night's 20 combined runs.
Series numbers show the Over standing at 7-3-1 the last 11 times the teams have faced one another, and Baltimore starter Dylan Bundy has seen the Over bank in each of his last 3 starts.
The Rays will go with Jacob Faria who is making his 4th start of the season. Faria has been very steady with just 3 runs allowed in his 19-plus innings thus far, but based on the numbers listed above, not sure how you can expect anything other than an Over?!?!
4* BALTIMORE-TAMPA BAY OVER
LARRY WALLACE
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -1½
After winning his major-league debut on June 3 against San Francisco, Lively has gone 0-1 in three starts - including a no-decision against Arizona on Sunday in which he allowed three runs and eight hits over six innings. The 25-year-old Floridian registered six strikeouts - one more than the total from his first three turns - and issued just one walk after handing out seven free passes over his initial 21 frames. Lively has yielded three runs and at least eight hits in each outing during his winless streak but had worked seven innings in each of his three career starts prior to Sunday. Ray also did not factor in the decision on Sunday after yielding four runs on eight hits and four walks in 5 1/3 innings. The outing ended a five-start winning streak for the 25-year-old native of Tennessee but extended his unbeaten string to seven outings that includes four scoreless efforts, a complete game and three double-digit strikeout performances. Ray, who hasn't lost since May 9 versus Detroit, owns a 1-1 record and 5.19 ERA in three career starts against Philadelphia.
ASA
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Play: Baltimore +131
The Orioles look like a dangerous dog in this one. The majority of wagers have been coming in on the Rays and yet this money line has been making a downward move all morning long. With that said, you can certainly see where the bigger money is going in this one and the smart money is in fact on Baltimore here. Of course that doesn't always pan out at a 100% win rate (nothing does!) but the point is we are happy to align our smart money here in this solid underdog situation. Dylan Bundy has had some recent struggles but he still has a respectable 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the season. The right-hander has held opponents to a .247 batting average on the season. The Rays have Jacob Faria on the mound in this one. He has been a surprise so far this season for Tampa Bay. However, Faria is facing an Orioles team that has a .489 slugging percentage over the past week and they'll be ready to bounce back after yesterday's embarrassing 15-5 loss. The Rays have won 3 straight games but are 2-5 this season and 14-28 long-term when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton +4½ over B.C.
From the outside looking in, the Eskimos appear to be an organization lost in chaos behind the scenes. The Eskies took home the Grey Cup in 2015 but after former head coach Chris Jones lost a bid at more power, including the job of then-general manager Ed Hervey, he bolted for total control of the Roughriders while leaving the Eskimos brass to pick up the pieces in his wake. You may have noticed we said “then” general manager Ed Hervey because just a year later, he was given the boot after butting heads with both the fans and local media.
Despite the drama off the field, the Eskies return every member of Jason Maas’s coaching staff providing quarterback Mike Reilly with some much-needed continuity. It’s easy to forget that Maas was a rookie head coach last season but he’s been around the league for years and the Eskies took to his offense like a polar bear to an ice bath putting up a league-high 418.7 yards per game in 2016. Last season was considered a disappointment in Edmonton but this team still managed to win 10 games, which is more than any team in the East. Reilly led the league in passing yards (5554) last season and he has Adarius Bowman as his number one receiver. Bowman also happened to lead the league in receiving yards (1761) a year ago.
The Eskimos sport one of the best defensive fronts in the league. Odell Willis, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard will all be in the trenches again this season. Other than those mainstays, there are many questions for defensive coordinator Mike Benevides’ squad. Uncertainty on defense is a common thread that is woven through most of the league so the Esks are the rule and not the exception.
The Lions came out of nowhere last season by going 12-6 and making it all the way to the West Division Final before getting waxed by the Stampeders 42-15 in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Lions were the feel-good story of the league, as Wally Buono returned to the sidelines for another tour of duty as the Leos bench boss. Buono will wear two hats again this season but this is not the same Lions team that took the league by storm last season. Arguably the league’s best defensive unit has been totally dismantled and one has to wonder if Buono hasn’t tinkered too much in his pursuit to finally overcome the mighty Stamps.
The Lions are expected to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Quarterback Jonathon Jennings appears to be a star in the making and he is surrounded by quality weapons in receivers Manny Arceneaux and Bryan Burnham and running back Jeremiah Johnson. If that wasn’t enough, the Lions added speedster Chris Williams from the Grey Cup Champion Redblacks. Williams was explosive last season, racking up 1246 yards receiving, including 575 yards after the catch and he only played in 14 games but he’ll start the year with an injured knee. So much of what the Lions were able to do on offense last year was because of their offensive line play but there was a shakeup in the offseason. B.C. sent international All-Star Guard Javon Olafioye to Montreal in exchange for Canadian lineman David Foucault and international offensive tackle Vincent Brown. It’s a definite downgrade but gives the Lions the potential to start four Canadians on the O-Line. Canadian starters in the CFL are very valuable due to game ratio rules that limit the number of international players that can suit up.
One of the league’s best units in 2016, this year’s Lions defense is full of unknowns. By inserting another Canadian starter on offense, the Lions are able to move import Steven Clark to safety which is a spot typically filled by a Canadian. The Lions lost a couple of key contributors from last year’s squad including linebacker Adam Bighill who earned a “futures” contract with the NFL’s New Orleans Saints. B.C. also loses special teams star and team leader linebacker Jason Aragki to retirement and safety Mike Edem signed with the Roughriders. The Lions will feature a number of new faces especially in the secondary which will feature three new starters.
The hype around these Lions appears to be real with many pointing to their +500 odds to win the Grey Cup as a value play. We're not so sure. Expectations were low for the Lions heading into 2016, as they were +900 to win the Grey Cup last season. Now, the pressure is on. The Lions are being advertised as the greatest show on Polytan. Sure, Jennings emerged as a playmaker in his rookie season but this is only his second year in the CFL. A sophomore step back isn’t out of the question. Regardless of what happens on the field, the Lions look to be a popular pick in the marketplace and in Daily Fantasy circles in Week 1. With a game total of 60, which is the highest on the board, the market expects fireworks. This line opened with the Leos being a -2½-point home favorite, which must have looked appealing to the market because that number is now -4. Even if you like the Lions, you’ve missed the best number and we never recommend betting a bad number. In both team’s first game of the year, the market will apply last year’s results to determine who they are going to bet on. That’s a market flaw we can exploit and thus, we’ll grab up the inflated points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland -106 over CHICAGO
Daniel Gossett absolutely has risk. He comes in after two starts with a 7.20 ERA but that’s not accurate at all. Gossett was torched in his first game but rebounded nicely in his second start with 6.2 innings of six hits, two earned runs, no walks and six punch-outs. His fastball sits 92-94 from a high overhead slot, and he can touch higher. He can elevate it up and out of the zone for strikeouts and generally commands it well. The mid-80s change mimics the fastball well out of the hand. He has decent feel for a low 80s curve too. Gossett has a slight build and there is some recoil in the delivery to get the velocity. It’s not enough to damn him to the bullpen, but it can dampen his command profile. That, plus the high slot means he can have issues getting the fastball down in the zone, and it’s hittable when he gets it up and not out of the zone. Still, he possess four above to above average pitches and the South Side own the second worst batting numbers versus righties in MLB. This isn’t about backing Gossett, however.
While it didn’t work out for us last night when we faded the Red Sox due to the ceremony angle, we’re applying it again here. White Sox players will be on the field 1½-hours prior to game time (fans are being asked to show up at noon local time) to honour one of the most popular pitchers in White Sox history, Mark Buehrle. Buehrle is one of the more unlikely success stories in baseball (he was a 28th round pick) that won over 200 games, was a five-time All-Star, has a ring to his name, a no-hitter, a perfect game and was also perhaps the quickest working pitcher in history. It was not unusual to see a Buehrle-pitched game be completed in less than two hours. Aside from that, he rarely missed a start in almost 15 years of service and was also one of the more likeable players this game has ever seen.
Then there’s James Shields. No, make that “Big Game” James Shields, who got that nickname how? Of the thousands of pitchers that have come through the majors, Shields’ is the last guy on the list we’d trust in a big game. He’s also the last guy we’d trust as the chalk. Shields’ has a 2.42 ERA after four starts, which is another example why you CANNOT trust ERA’s unless you’re Buck Martinez. What that ERA doesn’t tell you is that Shields has walked 11 batters in 22 frames. What that ERA doesn’t tell you is that Shields’ strand rate is an off-the-charts 91% in his small sample size this year. His 49% fly-ball rate isn’t likely to play well in this, his first start at home since he pitched there on April 6 on a chilly 43 degree day on the south side of Chicago. Pay more attention to Shields’ 5.59 xERA and 33% groundball rate. Shields’ arrow continues to point downward and in no way are we putting on the brakes in fading him every time he starts.
Baltimore +130 over TAMPA BAY
It's been a long road back for Dylan Bundy. Once, one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm and shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, it’s worth having a look at him again after 15 starts this year. What sticks out most is that he has 11 PURE quality starts in 15 tries. That’s a high percentage that makes him worth backing. While Bundy is not an elite pitcher or even a front-line starter, there are some encouraging signs. Bundy has been able to miss bats with ease, as his swing and miss rate is holding up. However, his low groundball % tells us hitters were able to elevate off of Bundy, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). Thing is, this game isn’t at Camden Yards. On the road, Bundy is 3-3 with a 4.25/3.99 ERA/xERA split. Bundy's control has wavered a bit recently but his above-average sub-indicators (first-pitch strike and ball %) hint that walks shouldn't be a major issue going forward. Bundy took some important steps forward in 2016. First, and most importantly, he stayed healthy all year. His xERA says there's work to do, but with Bundy's elite prospect pedigree, ability to miss bats and the possible re-emergence of a cutter/slider early so far in '17, he’s worth getting behind when the time is right and this could very well be that time.
Jake Faria is raising eyebrows across the league but let’s not get crazy here, ok? Faria has been the hottest ticket item in Fantasy Leagues across the continent over the past 10 days. After three starts, this rookie has 22 K’s in 20 innings to go along with a 1.37 ERA. He has only walked four batters too. If you bet against him in any of those three games, you lost. If you watched him pitch, you couldn’t help but be impressed. Now with the Rays stock soaring and this kid’s stock soaring too, you are going to pay extra to back that combo here. No question the Rays can win here but we’re in the value business and not the predication business so we’re selling high on both the Rays and Faria.
Three starts do not make a career. In those three starts, Faria’s line drive rates were 28%, 29% and 28% respectively, The league average line-drive rate is 20%. Faria’s strand rate in those three starts was 86% and the league average is 74%. See those 22 K’s and four walks in 20 innings? That’s not going to last either because Faria’s first pitch-strike rate in his first three starts was an awful 51%. Don’t get us wrong, as this kid has upside but he was ranked the Rays (not the league’s) seventh best prospect before the season began. His control, even in the minors, was barely passable so pay close attention to his 51% first-pitch strike rate and 40% balls thrown. Now this kid, who had no expectations when he was first-called up, suddenly has all eyes on him with expectations coming into this start. Faria now goes from a +135 pooch in Toronto to a +100 underdog in Detroit to a -145 favorite here against the Orioles, a team that can score in bunches and put anyone behind the eight-ball early. This is a classic case of too much hype in a small sample size.
L.A. Angels +161 over BOSTON
One of the toughest things to do in any sport is to come right back on the team you lost a bet with in the previous game. It’s something we’ve tweaked in our approach this year and will put it in play here after the Red Sox torched the Angels last night. Aside from the David Ortiz ceremony and the possible celebration hangover that might go with it, David Price cannot be favored in this range. Price continues to struggle since returning from his elbow injury, compiling a 5.09 ERA (5.35 xERA, 27% hit rate), 1.52 WHIP and 2.3 hr/9 over four games started in June. Despite a 63% first-pitch strike rate, he's allowed a HR in every outing, and continues to see negative results in his control, fly-ball rate (42%), groundball rate (33%) and hr/f (20%, all career-highs). Price has walked 14 batters over his past 28 innings and continues to be a massive risk when spotting prices like this.
J.C. Ramirez has walked seven batters over his last 9.2 innings, as well as giving up four earned run or more in three of his last four games overall (8.53 ERA). That makes him a buy low target. Prior to his awful outing on the road against the Tigers, Ramirez had gone three straight outings of seven innings or more while allowing two earned runs or less. For the season, he's compiled a 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 8.3 K’s/9 with 22 walks over 80 innings. The Red Sox offense sits 18th in OPS at home (.764), and are last in **wOBA (weighted batted average) over the last seven days (.274). It may not seem like it on the surface, but there's some appeal here in Ramirez and while there are always risks involved in a pitcher in poor form, the price here seals the deal.
**Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighing each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.
Simply put, OPS and wOBA will lead you to very similar conclusions in most situations, but if you care about determining how well a player contributes to run scoring, wOBA is a more accurate representation of that contribution. OPS undervalues getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases and does not properly weigh each type of extra base hit.