DAVE COKIN
ATHLETICS VS. ANGELS
PLAY: ATHLETICS +134
I don’t really have much of a problem going against Angels righty Jhoulys Chacin, who’s is pretty lousy form right now. Chacin has had some control problems recently, walking 13 batters in his last 17.1 innings. His stuff just isn’t good enough to survive issuing free passes at that rate. Chacin will occasionally light it up for a night, but the reality is he’s just a back of the rotation guy, and with his current form, I feel okay about trying to beat him.
This will be the debut for Dillon Overton, a lefty prospect who has been red hot recently at AAA. Overton has surrendered only two unearned runs overall in his last three starts. Unseen lefties can be difficult to figure out, and Overton has a deceptive crossfire delivery as well. He’s a pretty good prospect, who missed his first pro year after having TJS, but has moved quickly since.
The Halos have lost five straight, and Mike Scioscia admitted after the Friday game that the team is pressing. Oakland is a bad baseball team, but so are the Angels, and I think the home team is a bit overpriced tonight against a first-time rookie southpaw who has a chance to do well. I’ll take the price with the A’s.
Rob Vinciletti
Red Sox vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers +110
Texas was shocked at home 8-7 last night by Boston. Tonight they will turn the tables. They are 8-0 at home off a home loss and 11-2 as a home dog of late. The Rangers are 19-8 vs winning teams and 10-1 on Saturday. To the database we go and we see that road favorites with a total of 9.5 or more off a -200 or higher 1 run road favored win scoring 5+ run lose 80% of the time since 2004 vs an opponent off a 1 run home dog loss if they scored 5+ runs. Knuckle ball pitcher S. Wright for Boston was hit hard in his lone start here vs Texas and he takes on A.J Griffin who has won 5 of 6 and has a 1.93 home era. Play on Texas tonight.
Mike Lundin
Indians vs. Tigers
Play:Indians -133
Friday's free pick on the Toronto Blue Jays turned out a sour loser as the Jays failed to take advantage of a bases loaded with one out situation at the top of the ninth. For Saturday's free pick I'm backing the red hot Cleveland Indians as they take on AL Central rivals Detroit Tigers for Game 2 of a three-game set.
The Tribe are riding a seven game winning streak and will get a look at Anibal Sanchez (4-7, 5.97) today. Sanchez returns to the starting rotation after a three-week stay in the bullpen. He surrendered a total of 29 runs through his last six starts, and he's conceded 11 runs over 11 innings in two losses to the Indians this season. Yan Gomes is 7-for-14 in previous meetings with Sanchez.
The Tribe turn to Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.26 ERA). He's struggled with Detroit in the past and he's is 2-4 with a 7.62 ERA over his career at Comerica Park. I like Carrasco to come out with a strong performance today though. He tossed 7 1/3 solid innings of two-run ball against the White Sox his last time out and we can note that he's allowed just a pair of runs in 10 innings during the day this season.
Indians are 7-2 in Carrasco's last nine road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Indians have won seven straight meetings this season.
Stephen Nover
Twins vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9
Hard to believe, but the Twins have only gone under the total once during their last 19 games. The over is 16-1-2 in Minnesota's past 19 games. This may be the biggest below-the-radar streak of the season.
It's a string worth riding especially given the starting pitching matchup and the Twins' horrendous bullpen.
Twins starter Ervin Santana is clearly on the downside of his career. He's in bad form, too, giving up 27 runs in his last 35 innings. The Yankees just saw him last week. The Yankees get a boost to their offense with the expected return today of Mark Teixeira.
The Yankees have scored 37 runs in their last six games, an average of 6.1 runs per game. No bullpen has allowed more runs this season than the Twins.
Yankees starter Michael Pineda has a 6.20 home ERA and a 4.09 lifetime ERA versus the Twins. The only consistent thing about Pineda is his inconsistency.
Jack Jones
Washington Nationals -140
The Washington Nationals get the call Saturday as road favorites over the lowly Milwaukee Brewers. Washington is extremely hungry for a victory here after losing six straight coming in.
Gio Gonzalez is having a fine season for the Nationals, posting a 4.25 ERA in 14 starts and a 4.15 ERA in seven road starts. Gonzalez is also 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five career starts against Milwaukee.
Matt Garza just returned from injury. While he has pitched well in limited action, he cannot be trusted. That's especially the case against the Nationals as he's never beaten them. Garza is 0-4 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.858 WHIP in eight career starts against them.
Garza is 8-26 (-24.8 Units) against the money line after giving up no earned runs last outing in his career. The Brewers are 1-6 in Garza's last seven starts. Milwaukee is 19-42 in its last 61 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Brandon Lee
Indians -129
Cleveland is showing great value here as a relatively small road favorite against the Tigers on Saturday. The Indians will have a huge edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Carlos Carrasco against Anibal Sanchez. Carrasco has a 3.26 ERA in 8 starts, including a 2.70 ERA in 4 starts on the road. In his last 3 starts against the Tigers, he's allowed just 5 runs on 13 hits with 17 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings. Sanchez has a 6.67 ERA in 11 starts and has been just as bad at home as he has on the road, as his home ERA is 6.57 in 5 starts. In his last 3 starts against the Indians, he's given up 14 earned runs on 19 hits in 15 1/3 innings.
Marc Lawrence
Indians vs. Tigers
Play:Indians -134
Edges - Indians: Carlos Carrasco 2-0 in day starts and 3-1 starts versus A.L. Central foes this season. Tigers: Anibal Sanchez 3-8 team starts with 6.67 ERA and 1.68 WHIP this season, including 0-2 versus A.L. Central foes. With Carrasco sporting s super-sharp 2.70 ERA and a 0.99 ERA in his away starts this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Cleveland.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockies -133
It's no secret that Coors Field is a hitter's park and that's a big reason why I'm confident backing the Rockies at home on Saturday against the Diamondbacks Shelby Miller. What was suppose to be a boost to the rotation has been a complete bust. Miller is 2-6 with a 6.36 ERA and 1.738 WHIP in 11 starts. He's made two career starts at Coors Field and neither were any good. In his first start there, he gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks in just 2 2/3 innings. The next time he gave up 5 runs on 11 hits in 5 innings.
I just don't see him being able to keep this Colorado offense in check. The Rockies are hitting .299 as a team and averaging an even 6.0 runs/game at home this season. Arizona figures to score some runs of their own, but I don't think it will be enough to pull out the win. Colorado will send out Jorge De La Rosa, who has pitched very well since returning from the DL. He's given up just 3 runs on 8 hits in 11 innings. Coming into this season, he was 23-5 with a 3.59 ERA in 41 starts at home over the previous 3 seasons.
Home favorites of -100 to -150 who are starting a pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.750 on the season and a WHIP of 2.000 or more over his last 5 starts are 51-17 (75%) against the money line since 1997. It's also worth noting that the Rockies as a team are 56-17 in De La Rosa's last 73 home starts and 26-9 in his last 35 home starts against a team with a losing record.
Matt Josephs
Mets vs. Braves
Play: Under 7
It's a rematch of the 6/19 matchup in New York as the Braves take on the Mets. Julio Teheran threw a one hit complete game shut out against New York last time out. He has a 2.66 ERA in 15 starts with nine of those going under the total. Teheran has a 2.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.044 in 11 starts with eight of those going under the total. The Mets entered Friday night's game hitting .233 as a team. They are hitting around .210 in their last eight games. Jacob deGrom is 3-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 starts with seven of those going under the total. He held the Braves to three runs and five hits in six innings last time out. deGrom has a 2.25 ERA against the Braves and beat them in Atlanta back on April 24th. Atlanta is hitting .236 against right-handed starters. They are on a nice under streak right now as their pitching has held up. These two lineups should struggle against these top notch pitchers.
Jim Feist
Houston vs. Kansas City
Play: Over 8.5
Houston's offense has started to click during this nice run and the team is 11-4 over the total when Mike Fiers is on the mound. Fiers (4.42 ERA) is allowing batters to hit .278 and he's been terrible away from home with a 6.19 ERA in 32 innings. Opponents hit .321 off him on the road. Kansas City is 5-1 over the total against a winning team. They are stuck with 37-year old soft throwing Chris Young (2-6, 5.61 ERA), who got pounded by Houston in his only start against them, an 8-2 defeat.
Larry Ness
Oakland vs. LA Angels
Pick: LA Angels
Dillon Overton will be the third starting pitcher to make his major league debut this season for the Oakland A’s, joining Sean Manaea and Daniel Mengden. It’s an indication of the struggles Oakland’s rotation has had in 2016 (team ERA of 4.60 ranks 14th of 15 AL clubs). That said, Overton has certainly earned the promotion, going 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) for Nashville, after going 7-0 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts! "Our guys are telling us that he's really pitching well and he's come a long way," A's manager Bob Melvin told reporters after Thursday's game. "He's got a complement of pitches that gets him through righties and lefties both. We were impressed with what he did this spring. He's just continued to develop. We're at a point now where not only have we had some injuries and we've been using some guys, this is a guy that we like. He's healthy finally now and pitching well and you like to get a guy here when he's pitching well."
Overton was drafted in the second round by the A's in 2013 but had to have Tommy John surgery before he could make his professional debut. Once healthy, he’s risen swiftly through the minor league system. He'll be opposed by Jhoulys Chacin (3-5, 5.50 ERA), who could lose his spot in the starting rotation with another bad performance. Chacin has an 8.83 ERA over his last four starts (17 ERs allowed in 17.1 IP) with the Angels losing THREE of those four contests. The Angels traded for Chacin on May 11 in a deal with the Braves to fill a slot in the rotation but in order to send him to the minors they would have to designate him for assignment and have him pass through waivers. The more likely scenario would be to move him to the bullpen and make him a long reliever, if he can’t get things straightened out.
The Angels lost 7-4 on Friday to Oakland, giving them a five-game losing streak. Yes, Chacin has struggled in his four starts in June (26 hits allowed along with with 13 walks to match that 8.83 ERA over 17.1 innings) but we don’t know what to expect from Overton in his major league debut. He becomes the 11th pitcher to start a game for Oakland this season, an American League-high. I’m going to take a shot on the home team.
Tennis Insiders
Johnson vs. Cuevas
Pick: Cuevas
Steve Johnson has become renowned for choking in certain situations, so this -200 line is way too high for Saturday's final. Cuevas has fought hard, recovering from 0-4 down in a final set tiebreak v Baghdatis, defeating Gilles Muller from a set down in today's semi-final. While not renowned for his grass court game, Cuevas has the tools required, big serve & forehand. Johnson is just 2-4 in deciding set tiebreaks, and with Cuevas 5-1 in his 6 career finals the Uruguayan will be confident in adding a 3rd title to his resume in 2016. Johnson's three wins this week have come against opponents with a combined 26-47 record in 2016, compared to Cuevas who eliminated two big serving players in Muller & Baghdatis, the American will be another familiar challenge.
Don Best Consensus
Chicago at Miami
Pick: Chicago
The Cubs are 34-16 in their last 50 road games. Lackey is on a roll: He's made 10 straight quality starts and has a 1.97 ERA in that stretch. Miami starter Clemens is not a long-term starter, he's only made one start giving up 3 HR and only lasting 5 innings. Cubs get the victory Saturday
Bob Balfe
Diamondbacks/Rockies Over 11.5
The Rockies are the perfect team to play the over with. Vegas is starting to adjust, but not enough. This is one of the only teams that can put up a 9 spot on the board and get beat night after night. This is a horrible defensive team with bad pitching, but these guys can make up for it with hitting the ball. Arizona is hitting the ball really well and should continue to put runs on the board in this series.
ASA
Edmonton -6
In a rematch of last year’s Grey Cub game in which Edmonton won by 6-points 26-20 but some statistics in that game tell us the final score was somewhat misleading and could have been a larger margin. Ottawa was outgained by Edmonton 378-292 yards in that Championship game, while the important battle of first downs was won 28-19 by the Eskimos. Edmonton also led the time of possession tally, as the game finished as a 32:29-27:31 split in that important category. We expect the dominating trend for Edmonton to continue here as they also beat Ottawa 47-17 and 23-12 in two games last year. In fact, the Eskimos have won 9 of the last 10 clashes by nearly 12 points per game. Edmonton has covered 12 of their last 16 at home including 5 straight. We’ll lay the points here with Edmonton as long as it’s less than a TD.