CHASE DIAMOND
Dodgers -140
This game has the 41-34 Dodgers at the 35-39 Pirates. Pirates have been mirror opposites of the Dodgers. The Pirates are 2-8 last 10 and the Dodgers are 8-2 last 10 games and looking to catch the Giants in the West. Huge advantage on the mound for the Dodgers here as Kenta Maeda is 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA. Jeff Locke is 6-5 with a 5.44 ERA. Locke has gotten hit hard 2 of his last 3 starts. Not a hard choice we are backing the public side of the Dodgers here tonight.
DAVE PRICE
New York Mets -130
This is really a pretty fair price to get the New York Mets with Jacob DeGrom on the mound. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in 12 starts this year. DeGrom is also 3-3 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 7 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. T
JOHN RYAN
Padres -120
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 76-30 mark good for 72% winners and has made a remarkable 54 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play against NL home teams (CINCINNATI) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Reds are just 11-26 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons; 5-23 (-14.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.
Fundamental Discussion Points SD has done well against LH starters batting 0.277 and with a 0.787 OPS scoring 6.0 RPG in 23 games. Reds have not done well against LH starters scoring just 3.8 RPG batting 0.243 with a 0.295 OBP. Further, their bullpen is pathetic sporting a 6.34 ERA and 1.584 WHIP in 74 games spanning 263 2/3 innings of work.
SPS Investors
Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore
Pick: Tampa Bay
There is no question that the Tampa Bay Rays have been struggling as of late having lost their last 6 straight. The betting public has clearly shied away from backing this team and the oddsmakers have consistently inflated the price on their opponents. There is certainly no question that the Baltimore Orioles are playing the better overall baseball at the moment; however we do believe they are significantly over-valued in this particular matchup, especially when it comes to the starting pitchers
Kevin Gausman has struggled this season and has been even worse most recently having allowed ten runs in his last two starts. He is winless on the year and has been extremely hittable and that should give the Tampa Bay bats a chance to break out of their recent skid and do some damage this afternoon. It’s worth mentioning that the Orioles are just 1-5 in their last 6 meetings with Tampa Bay when Gausman has taken the mound!
Meanwhile, Matt Andriese has been a bright spot in the Rays rotation. Although he has spent much of his time in relief settings, he is a perfect 6-0 with a respectable 2.88 ERA in 50 innings of work as a starter this season. He has allowed more than 3 runs only once in in 7 starts but more importantly has only allowed 2 homers on the year! The Orioles have been a team that has feasted on the long ball this season and if Andriese can continue to limit the homeruns and force the Baltimore hitters to play small-ball, he will certainly give his team a chance to pull off the victory.
The Tampa Bay Bays are motivated to snap their losing streak and we believe this is an opportunity for them to do just that. They certainly have great value as an underdog in this matchup and we believe the reward is definately worth the risk if we are correct.
Dave Essler
Cardinals / Mariners Over 8
As most of the long term people know, I have found that more often than not the "next game" of a series starts a lot like the last one - and these two scored six runs late. I suppose that should mean we'd look at the F5 over (which I did and will likely bet) - but suffice it to say both bullpens were used and failed last night, so there's always that later if we need it. We've got reasonable weather so the roof may well be open, which will just be a bonus. We've got Gerry Davis behind the plate who has been a streaky O/U umpire, starting the season with a ton of unders - but now has called six of his last nine "over" -the Cardinals bullpen has been getting hammered for a week, the Mariners pen was used a TON of Thursday, and Benoit and Vincent have pitched the last two nights so may be unavailable. Karns hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in a month - after a torrid May Leake seems to be regressing to the mean, and the Cardinals have a few at bats against him from his days in the NL.
Brad Wilton
It was NOT the nortmal same old, same old between the Mets and the Braves on Friday, as the rare Over came into play in their 8-6 "slugfest".
But, even with last night's game playing Over the posted price, that Under has still been the play in 4 of the last 5 series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 played between these teams this season dating back to April.
Your pitching matchup is the same as it was on the 19th at Citi Field when Julio Teheran went the distance allowing just one hit in his 6-0 shutout win over Jacob de Grom and the Metropolitans.
Both pitchers have season ERA's under 3, and both have been involved in more Unders than Overs of late, as each pitcher has seen their last 3 starts hold Under the total. For the year, 7 of de Grom's 12 season starts have gone Low, while the Under is 9-4-2 in Teheran's 15 season starts.
Under trends too dominant to ignore here.
Mets-Braves Under the total.
3* N.Y. METS-ATLANTA UNDER
Chris Jordan
The Giants owe me.
Big time.
So I'm coming back with them tonight, on the Run Line, against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Up 5-2 heading into the eighth inning, and the Phillies plate two runs in the top of the eighth to make it a one-run ballgame. Absolutely horrendous.
Tonight will workout badly for the Phillies. I mean, real bad. The National League West-leading Giants are at home for the weekend and are in on a four-game win streak. They boast one of baseball's pitching staffs, and have a lively offense that can generate runs.
San Francisco's team ERA is 3.40 - ranking fifth in Major League Baseball. At home, the Giants' ERA improves to 3.21, sixth in the bigs, while the team's starters have a 3.38 ERA, which ranks third in the league.
None of that bodes well for the Phillies, who have baseball's eighth-worst mark for runs scored on the road, with 145. For the season, overall, the Phillies rank dead last with a .231 batting average. And in the month of June, the Phillies have the second-worst batting average (.226) - they're worst mark since the start of the season, as they hit at least .230 in both April and May.
Meanwhile, San Francisco ranks 11th in the league with a .260 batting average, and eighth in baseball with 108 runs scored in June.
The Giants, who are seven games in front of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the West, have won 12 of 13 since a mini-skid that saw Frisco drop three of four. And how bout this for motivation, the Giants' next eight series come against teams they beat the last time they played them.
San Francisco has to be juiced for this weekend set, and will erupt after returning from a successful trip to Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, and last night's close game.
Lay the Run Line in this one.
5* GIANTS -1.5
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Saturday night is on the Baltimore Orioles, laying the price to American League East-rival Tampa Bay, at Camden Yards.
The O's are clinging to their lead in the division, sitting 1.5 ahead of the Boston Red Sox and 3.5 ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays. And what makes this series tough altogether for the Rays is Baltimore is a stellar 28-13 at home this season. The Orioles are also one of the best home hitting teams.
Tampa Bay headed into this series on a seven-game skid, which followed a three-game win streak. The Rays lost again last night - making it eight in a row - and have seen their offense decline, as they're averaging a mere 2.25 runs during their losing streak. And in four of the seven losses during the skid, Tampa Bay has scored 0 or 1 run in the game.
On the flipside, the Rays' pitching isn't doing any better, as it's allowed 47 runs during the losing slide - almost six runs per game.
And I want you listing pitchers in the second game of this doubleheader, as I like Chris Tillman over Jake Odorizzi.
Odorizzi is 2-3 with a 4.64 ERA in 10 career appearances against the Orioles, including a 1-3 mark with a 6.92 ERA at Camden Yards.
Tillman, meanwhile, enters his start with a nine-game winning streak, the longest for an Orioles pitcher since 2007. He’s beaten the Rays twice this season.
Take Baltimore in the late game, as this is a cheap price to pay.
2* ORIOLES
Gabriel DuPont,
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 72-66 run with free picks: Athletics (+130) at ANGELS
The STORYLINE in this game today - Quite an opening game in this series, as Tim Lincecum had a rough one, and an umpires took a bat to the noggin. Lincecum put the Angels in a hole with a four-run, six-hit second inning, and the Angels are in an even deeper hole as they continue to slump. I told you last night Oakland was in a good spot here, and I wanted you listing pitchers, as there is revenge to be had. The A's got it done. Tonight I want straight action on Oakland, as I like the pup again.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The Angels are just playing bad baseball right now, and might be the worst performing team in baseball. I honestly don't think they're the worst team in the bigs, but they certainly are playing like it. The boys of Anaheim have lost five straight, and they're 15-22 at home this season. Oakland is half-game ahead of the Halos in the division, and don't want to slip into the cellar.
BOTTOM LINE is - All that being said, let's talk about the Halos' demise. A 5-4 loss to the Athletics two nights back dropped the Angels 16 games behind Texas in the American League West, their largest June deficit since 2001, when they fell 20 games behind a Seattle team that won 116 games. They're still 16 games back, since Texas lost last night. And nothing is still going right, even with the supposed best player in baseball.
2* ATHLETICS
RAY MONOHAN
Boston / Texas Under 9.5
Typically, Globe Life Park would be an Over place. However, given the starting pitchers today, this is a nice spot to play the Under. Steven Wright comes in with an 8-4 record with an ERA of just 2.01. Wright has been the biggest surprise of the season as the knuckleballer has stifled every offense he's faced.
Wright has won 5 of his last 6 starts with the other being a ND. At night, he's gone 6-1 while holding the opposition to just a .203 batting average. On the Rangers side of things, AJ Griffin sits with a 3-0 record while posting just a 2.94 ERA. He's shown some success against the Red Sox, going 2-1 in his career with a 3.60 ERA.
Some trends to consider. Under is 11-3-1 in the last 15 meetings in Texas. Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
This is a nice spot here to back the Under on this high total. Expect both pitchers to get into a groove and hold down the opposing lineups.
MICHAEL ALEXANDER
Royals +124
Kansas City starter, Young has shaved a little more than a full run off his enormous ERA by sandwiching a pair of scoreless short stints around his last two strong outings. The 37-year-old allowed one run on three hits and struck out seven in six innings of a no-decision versus Detroit on Sunday. Young owns a 4-2 career mark versus Houston. While Houston starter, Fiers has dropped both career regular-season outings versus Kansas City, posting a bloated 7.36 ERA while allowing the opposition to bat .326 against him.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +6½ over EDMONTON
The defending Grey Cup Champions come into this season with high expectations and as the odds on favorite to win it all again. This off-season was an unusual one in Edmonton with former head coach Chris Jones heading for greening pastures and total team control in Saskatchewan. The Eskies brought in former quarterback and Redblacks offensive coordinator Jason Maas to be the new HC. Maas will have big shoes to fill but he ran the number one offense in the CFL last season. Maas should have some fun with a healthy Mike Reilly ready to connect with 2015 leading receiver Adarius Bowman and last year's most outstanding rookie, Derel Walker.
While his championship offense is still intact, Maas will have some new faces on defense. Pat Watkins and Marcell Young are the only starters returning to the secondary. Corner Aaron Grymes left for the NFL and Otha Foster split to join Jones in Regina. The news gets worse for the back-end, as starter John Ojo will miss the season with a ruptured Achilles. Edmonton added Cord Parks who will move from halfback to corner but the Esks will be relying on young guys like halfback Deion Blue and linebacker Kenny Ladler to carry the load. The Eskimos patchwork defensive unit could have some big problems with Henry Burris and his many weapons.
The Redblacks led the league in total offense (386.6 yards per game), passing (322.6 YPG) and average time of possession at 33:10 a game but as we discussed they will be without their offensive coordinator in Maas. Ottawa should be fine though because they are in good hands with Jaime Elizondo, who comes over from the Argos. Elizondo has a similar offensive philosophy to Maas and he doesn’t need to fix something that isn’t broken to begin with. Last year's breakout runner William Powell will miss the season with a ruptured Achilles but Montana alum Travon Van will take over the starter’s role after an impressive mini-camp and productive preseason.
There are some casualties from that 2015 Ottawa team like defensive ends Justin Capicciotti and Shawn Lemon, defensive backs Brandyn Thompson and Jovon Johnson and offensive lineman Colin Kelly. However, the Redblacks are way ahead of the curve as they continue to build strong depth around their starters. When one gets injured or leaves, it is next man up and often that next man is better than the one he replaced. There are many story lines coming into this 2015 Grey Cup rematch but the biggest might be the weight of expectations for the defending champs. Ottawa can score in bunches and that makes them dangerous to win any game. The Eskimo's young defense could be in for a long night and it’s also worth noting that Edmonton had to replace its entire wide-side secondary. The Redblacks can trade punches with the Eskimos all day long and while a lot of this market considers Ottawa to still be an “expansion” team, we do not. The Redblacks have arrived and last year was no fluke.
B.C. LIONS +3 over Calgary
The coaching change in Calgary wasn't a shock to anyone who follows the team but we don't expect Bo Levi Mitchell and the offense to miss a beat. Former quarterback and offensive coordinator Dave Dickenson has been groomed by general manager John Hufnagel to take over the Stamps for years so this isn't a drastic move. A staff change that may make an impact is veteran defensive coordinator Rich Stubler leaving the Stamps to join the Argos in Toronto. Calgary was second in the league in points allowed last season with just 346. The Stamps were tied with the Eskimos for second in the league with 49 sacks and they led the league in defended passes (62) by a wide margin.
The Stampeders made some tough choices on the defensive side by sending a couple of fan favorites packing. Keon Raymond was traded to The Big Smoke and Huff chose not to resign stalwart middle linebacker Juwan Simpson. On offense, the Stamps lost a pair of pass grabbers, as receivers Eric Rogers and Jeff Fuller left for the NFL.
The Lions come into this season with low expectations but they do not deserve to be in the same class as the bottom feeding Bombers. The Leos are a well-run organization. In Wally Buono's 13 seasons, B.C. has never missed the playoffs. After a disappointing performance against the Stamps in the West Semi-Final, Wally is returning to the coaching ranks for the first time since 2011. The Lions will welcome another mainstay back to the sidelines this season as linebacker Solomon Elimimian returns after a stint in the NFL. GM Buono has surrounded himself with a solid group of vets and young guys in the secondary. The Lions added Brandon Stewart and Mike Edem from Hamilton to join halfback T.J. Lee who is looking to build on a solid 2015 campaign in which he started 17 games making 79 tackles and snagging four interceptions.
The Lions have some great young talent on offense led by sophomore quarterback Jonathon Jennings. The 23-year-old from Saginaw Valley State burst onto the scene last season. In nine starts including playoffs, Jennings threw for 2004 yards with 15 touchdowns while completing 66% of his passes. He will have Lions mainstay receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux by his side. Arceneaux is coming off his best season as a pro, hauling in career highs in catches (76), yards (1151) and touchdowns (9). The Lions lost running back Andrew Harris in free agency but his best days are behind him. The Leos will start veteran back Jeremiah Johnson who comes over from the Redblacks. His promising 2015 was cut short by a knee injury. Johnson was still able to rack up 448 yards on 97 carries with nine rushing touchdowns in his limited time in Ottawa. He's capable of catching balls out of the backfield too with 42 receptions for 267 yards last season.
BC Place is always a tough field to play on and many teams have fallen to the Lions in the late game of a double header over the years. Usually BC is favored at home but not tonight. This falls into the classic buy-low/sell high category, as the Lions are no longer thought of as a threat in the West while the Stampeders have been the class of the conference for a very long time. In other words, this game looks like the sucker bet of the CFL weekend so proceed with caution if you were thinking of spotting the points. The Lions might be this year’s Redblacks. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland -1½ +116 over DETROIT
Carlos Carrasco has made just eight starts after spending some time on the DL but he hasn’t missed a beat. Carrasco comes in with a legit 3.26 ERA. He has a BB/K split of 12/42 in 47 innings. In his last start, Carrasco walked four batters in six innings but with a 63% first-pitch strike rate, that was an aberration. Carrasco’s 17% swing and miss rate his last game strongly reveals that’s he’s warming up big time. Carrasco has great skills both on the surface and beneath it. It’s hard to find a flaw in these metrics so don't hesitate to buy him up, especially right now with the Indians being on a path of destruction.
If somebody is going to cool off the Indians, chances are it will not be Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has one (!) quality start in 11 attempts this season. He also has a 1.60 WHIP and one of the worst xERA’s in the game at 5.95. Sanchez is an old 32 years. He had more season-ending injuries last year, this time a rotator cuff strain. His continuous poor starts hint that the physical woes are taking a toll. A groundball dip and soaring hr/f wrecked his ERA from the get-go. Sanchez has spent the better part of the last month in the bullpen but we never add in one’s bullpen numbers to their numbers as a starter. There is a massive difference between having to get one or two guys out to having to work five or six frames. Sanchez is no longer equipped to do the latter.
Oakland +129 over L.A. ANGELS
The A's will go back to the prospect pool by plucking Dillon Overton from Triple-A Nashville of the Pacific Coast League. Overton is 24 and comes with some pedigree, as he was one of the premier college arms coming into the 2013 draft and was a second-round pick of the A's. Soon after he signed, Overton had Tommy John surgery. The 6'2” lefty out of Oklahoma is now two years removed from his operation and made it unscathed through his first full minor league season in 2015, reaching double-A Midland. He was in camp this spring and the A's are hoping he'll regain the mid-90s fastball he had at OU, but he works in the 88-92 range now. Overton has learned to pitch without his heater, developing excellent command and feel. He throws across his body which can look a little ugly at times but it gives him some deception. He spots his curveball to both sides of the plate and varies its shape as well. The A's would like to see him add some bulk to his wiry frame, but he hasn't kept any weight on so far. The A's consider Overton close to a finished product with how much velocity he ends up with the only real remaining X-factor. He's has been on an impressive run lately winning his last seven starts with a 1.40 ERA and not allowing an earned run in his last three trips to the mound. Those numbers are noteworthy, as they come in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League. Down in Nashville, he's striking out 6.31 batters per nine-innings and has been very stingy giving up the long ball with just two dingers in 13 starts covering 85 innings. Oakland has won two straight over the Angels and could easily make it three here.
We know what we're going to get with Jhoulys Chacin at this point and we don't like it. He gets hit hard and he doesn't strike out many. Like his Angels’ teammates, Chacin is coming into this one in poor form. The Venezuelan is struggling in his last seven starts with a 2-3 record to go along with a 6.14 ERA. Over that span, Chacin has given up 25 earned runs in just 36.2 innings pitched. Last time out, Chacin went just two frames and got tagged for five earned runs on six hits versus the Astros. Under the hood it's ugly too. His batting average of balls in play (BAPIP) is .263 which indicates he's actually been quite lucky this season. Chacin enters the day with a 38.8% hard hit ball percentage, the worst of today's starters and there does not appear to be an end in sight. Chacin is barely hanging in as a starter at this point. If the Halos weren’t so desperate for some warm bodies that can give them some innings, Chacin would be in the bullpen or counting heads on the bus ride from the hotel to the stadium. The Angels are a mess, their pen is a mess, Chacin is a mess and so we’re more than happy to roll with an unknown commodity with a great minor-league pedigree.
Jimmy Boyd
Astros at Royals
Play: Royals
Going into Friday's series opener against the Astros, Kansas City is a dominant 25-8 at home this season. The Royals are simply not getting the respect they deserve at home on Saturday with the starting pitching matchup that we will have. The Royals send out Chris Young, who is 1-6 with 6.08 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 10 starts. Those numbers are a big reason why KC is a dog here, but he's got a 3.12 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 5 home starts. The Royals are 4-1 in those 5 starts at home. Houston counters with Michael Fiers, who has a respectable 4.42 ERA and 1.248 WHIP overall in 13 starts, but he's struggled away from home. Fiers has a 6.43 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 5 home starts, with Houston going just 1-4 in those starts. It's important to note that Young pitched well in his last outing, giving up just 1 run on 3 hits with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings of work. Home teams with a starter who has a record of 20% or worse that gave up 1 or less earned runs in their previous outing are 23-7 (76.7%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons.