Free Picks for Saturday, June 3rd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
PARLAY - ASTROS & INDIANS +147
The Astros are a monster right now, and McCullers is pitching at an extremely high level. Nice go by Cashner in his last start, and his 2.92 ERA suggests he’s pitching well. But dig deeper and there’s that one big red flag on the Cashner ledger, which is a negative BB/K ratio. I don’t see how he gets away with all that contact against a Houston team that is scoring a ridiculous number of runs right now.
KC righty Jason Hammel decided to make a pretty substantial delivery change two starts back. He is now pitching exclusively out of the stretch. It worked pretty well in the first start, a good showing against the Yankees. But the results were not good at all in the subsequent game against Detroit. The Indians own a huge edge on the mound with Carlos Carrasco, and after taking themselves out of several innings on Friday night by hitting into double plays, I’ll look for the Tribe offense to get back on track today. Like the Astros, this is a big chalk piece, so I’m going with a parlay on the two big money line favorites.
Scott Rickenbach
Penguins vs. Predators
Play: Predators -1½
Why lay the 1.5 goals here? Well the +230 payback sounds pretty good, each of the first two games have been decided by multiple goal margins, and the Predators have outshot the Penguins by a combined margin of 64-39 so far in this series. In other words, would you truly be surprised if the Preds win this game by 2 goals or more? Of course not! Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne has been much stronger at home than he's been on the road recently. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray is going to be tested even more here on the road in front of a raucous Nashville crowd that makes for one of the loudest venues in the NHL. 7 of the Penguins last 12 games have been decided by 2 goals or more. 7 of the Predators last 12 games have also been decided by a multiple goal margin. Go for the big payback here as the Preds, in an 0-2 hole and very hungry at home, have a great shot at a home rout win in this one.
Brandon Lee
Pirates vs. Mets
Play: Mets -124
New York is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Pirates, as they will be out to revenge a series opening lost to Pittsburgh last night in which they blew a 7-4 lead after 5 innings. For me, this all comes down to the starting pitching matchup and fading Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow, who has a 6.95 ERA in 10 starts overall and a 7.45 ERA in 4 outings on the road. I know the overall numbers aren't much better for Mets starter Robert Gsellman, but he's coming into this start off two great outings, where he pitched at least 6 innings and allowed 3 or fewer runs. Even with yesterday's win, Pittsburgh is still a mere 4-11 in their last 15 road games against a team with a losing home record and are 1-4 in their last 5 following a win. Mets are 7-1 in Gsellman's last 8 starts after scoring 5 or more runs and 4-1 in their last 5 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Scott Spreitzer
Pirates vs. Mets
Play: Mets -130
New York looks to bounce back from Friday's loss to the Pirates with Robert Gsellman, who is coming off two quality starts, including a 4-2 win over Milwaukee on Monday when he allowed two runs and three hits in seven innings. Tyler Glasnow has had trouble getting anybody out with a current 6.95 ERA and Pittsburgh has lost four of his last five starts, including his last outing against the Mets. Glasnow gave up five runs on eight hits in five innings and he now has a 6.46 ERA in May, which is an improvement over April when it was 7.98. Glasnow has made it through six innings in just three of his 10 starts this season. The Pirates are 11-17 on the road and in last place in the NL Central.
Stephen Nover
Washington at Oakland
Play: Washington -113
The price is low enough to back the Nationals, the best team in the National League, against the worst team in the American League, the A's.
Washington has the No. 1 offense in baseball. The Nationals have four players with double-digit homers and already have tied a team record by scoring 13 or more runs six times this season. Michael Taylor has stepped up in centerfield after Adam Eaton was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Taylor is batting .303 since replacing Eaton and has smacked five homers.
Oakland has a bottom-five offense.
The hot Nationals are 9-2 in their last 11 games and 4-0 during their current road swing. Oakland is 1-6 in its last seven with sinking morale and no swagger unlike the Nationals.
The pitching matchup is Joe Ross versus Daniel Mengden. Ross is a much pitcher than he has shown this season. His 6.18 ERA is not indicative of his talent. Mengden doesn't have such a high ceiling as Ross and his ERA is more than double Ross' at 13.50.
Ross should be extra pumped having grown up in Oakland hills, which is just a 10-minutes drive from the Oakland Coliseum.
Mengden opened the season on the DL following offseason foot surgery. He made his season debut this past Monday and was hammered for five runs and seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings during a 5-3 loss to Cleveland.
Mengden was 0-7 with a 6.86 ERA as a rookie last year. He is 0-7 in eight career starts at the Coliseum. Oakland is 1-7 in his last eight starts.
Marc Lawrence
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox -116
Edges - Red Sox: Price 3-0 last three overall team starts versus Baltimore, and 8-2 career team starts in this park… Orioles: 2-7 last nine games at home in this series. With Price 10-3 his last 13 away team starts during June, we recommend a 1* play on Boston.
Dustin Hawkins
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -125
Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (DETROIT) - poor hitting team (AVG less than.260) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. (41-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (82%). Detroit is 15-7 against the Sox over the last 3 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -125
Detroit cruised to a 15-5 win in the series opener against the White Sox on Friday and have now scored 6 or more runs in 3 of their last 4. I look for that trend to continue here against Chicago's Miguel Gonzalez, who owns a 1-4 record and 5.20 ERA and 1.596 WHIP in 6 road starts. The White Sox are also struggling right now, going just 4-7 in their last 11 and are 24-28 overall. Tigres starter Jordan Zimmermann struggled in his last start, which came against these White Sox, but I expect him to be much better at home and Zimmermann has gone 24-9 in his career against the money line when he starts against a marginal losing team with a win percentage of 46% to 49%.
Vic Duke
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8½
Red Sox/Orioles 7:15: This series has trended under at 3-12-1 O/U and we won't fight that here. In Baltimore, these teams have gone 1-7 O/U and two solid pitchers take the mound. Price, who's done well on the road in June team starts (10-3), has pitched well against Baltimore. Price is 8-2 in this ball park. Price is also 1-4 O/U in his last 5 starts overall. On the other hand, Bundy has gone 2-8 O/U at home and 0-4-1 O/U vs the Red Sox. We'll look for this game to stay "under".
Doc's Sports
Boston vs. Baltimore
Play: Over 9
The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are off to slow starts offensively, but don't expect that to last. They both have stacked lineups, and I'm willing to look past the first third of the season and focus on the potential (and the longer history) rather than the current numbers. David Price and Dylan Bundy are slated to match up in this contest on Saturday afternoon. Price just got back from a scary injury and I think he'll be a bit rusty for the first few weeks. The Sox will also be very careful with him. Bundy has had a nice start to 2017, but his 2.92 ERA is a bit of a mirage. His peripheral numbers point to an ERA near 4.00, so I expect some regression soon. Without a ton of confidence in either starting pitcher, I look for the offenses to carry the day for the Red Sox and Orioles on Saturday.
Brandon Shively
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Dodgers
Matt Garza may have started the season well, but I'm not buying him being a good starter for the year overall. Garza is near the end of his career and this Dodgers lineup should get to him in a big way here. Los Angeles is elite at hitting right handed starters, and Garza is a below average right hander at this stage of his career.
The Dodgers start Rich Hill, and he was good in his last outing. Hill is backed by arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Milwaukee's bullpen is no better than average. Lay the price with the Dodgers on the road on Saturday.
Big Al
Washington vs. Oakland
Pick: Washington
Nationals RHP Joe Ross returns home tonight to pitch as a Major Leaguer for the first time. Ross grew up in the Oakland area and went to High School at Bishop O'Dowd, just a few miles from where he'll be on the mound this afternoon. Ross has had a strange season so far. He is 2-1 in five starts with a very nice 4.80 K:BB ratio. But his ERA and WHIP are unsightly and he's allowed an average of 2.3 HR per nine innings. Perhaps a start in his hometown against a pretty anemic A's offense will be just the thing that Ross needs to start turning it around. Only the Kansas City Royals have plated fewer runs this season than the A's, and their team batting average is also next-to-last. RHP Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's, filling in for Jesse Hahn who is on the DL with a triceps strain. Mengden's first start of the season didn't go so well, as he allowed five runs on seven hits in 3 1/3 innings in Cleveland. He'll face an even better lineup tonight, and since this game is in Oakland, the Nats will have the added benefit of a designated hitter. The Nats are 4-1 in Ross's last five starts.
Jim Feist
Dodgers at Brewers
Pick: Over
This is a good home run park and Los Angeles is in town with a strong offense, #7 in baseball in runs scored. LA has 37-year old Rich Hill going, who has walked 14 in 22 innings with 19 hits allowed. Milwaukee is a strong offensive team, too, #6 in runs scored and homers. The Over is 17-7 in the Brewers last 24 home games. Milwaukee starter Matt Garza has allowed 14 hits and 10 runs his last 11 innings. And the Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee.
Wunderdog
Cardinals @ Cubs
Pick: Under 8.5
The Chicago Cubs won it all last year for the first time in over a century, but they appear to have that Champion hangover in 2017. The Cubs will complete 1/3 of their season this afternoon vs. St. Louis, and they enter as a below .500 team. The Cubs offense has been really struggling. They have gone 11 straight games without producing more than five runs, and as bad as that sounds, it has been worse lately. Their last seven games have seen just 12 runs cross the plate, two shutouts and 1.7 runs per contest. At .500, the Cardinals have not done much better offensively, scoring four or fewer runs in eight straight games and averaging just over two per contest.