DAVE PRICE
Arizona Diamondbacks +109
I like the price we are getting with the Arizona Diamondbacks as underdogs to the Miami Marlins considering the advantage they have on the mound this afternoon. Randall Delgado sports a 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his 2 starts this season. Delgado has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts, and his teams have gone 4-0 in those games. He'll be opposed by Edinson Volquez, who is 1-7 with a 4.44 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts this year. The Diamondbacks are 13-5 in their last 18 overall. The Marlins are 2-11 in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Miami is 1-6 in Volquez's last 7 starts.
MIKE ANTHONY
Washington vs. Oakland
Play: Washington-113
I think the Nationals at this price on Saturday. The Nationals have won five straight starts by Joe Ross in Game 2 of a series and are 4-1 when he takes the mound against losing teams. The Athletics have dropped four straight home starts by Daniel Mengden.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston -1½ -104 over TEXAS
Lance McCullers’ 2.48 ERA is completely legit while Andrew Cashner’s 2.92 ERA is a complete mirage. McCullers has an impressive BB/K split of 19/73 in 65 innings to go along with the best groundball rate in the majors at 61%. Nothing more needs to be said other than he’s pitching for the hottest team in baseball and while spotting 1½-runs and a little juice may not seem like a bargain, it actually is because this is a pitching mismatch of mammoth proportions at a severe hitter's park.
We faded Cashner last time out in Toronto and he somehow Houdini-ed is way to seven full innings of five hit, one run ball. Of the 26 batters that Cashner faced in Toronto, he struck out two. In 52 innings, Cashner has walked 27 and struck out 23. That does not add up to an ERA under 3.00. His 86% strand rate over his last seven starts is the highest among starters over that span. This is a pitcher with weak skills that has been living off of strand percentage and hit percentage luck. He’ll now face one of the fiercest offenses in the game that work pitchers to the bone because of their collective great plate discipline. The Astronauts have struck out the second fewest times in MLB and take the 10th most walks. Cashner’s charmed season is about to blow up and if it doesn’t blow up here, we’ll be fading Cashner again.
BALTIMORE +110 over Boston
Dylan Bundy comes in with a 2.89 ERA but if you follow this game closely then you’ve probably read or heard that he’s a strong candidate for regression. His xERA or xFIP is close to 4.50 because he only has 49 K’s in 72 innings and he also has a groundball/fly-ball split of 31%/49%. We’re not entirely sold on Bundy either but his newfound durability combined with a swinging strike rate that has mostly held from what he did in 2016 suggests he can live in the mid-3s in ERA and isn’t the regression candidate that expected results believe he is. What sticks out is that he has 10 pure quality starts in 11 tries and his line drive rate of 20% is elite. Bundy took some important steps forward last year. First, and most importantly, he stayed healthy all year. Yes, indeed, his xERA says there's work to do but with Bundy's elite prospect pedigree, ability to miss bats and the possible re-emergence of a cutter/slider early in '17, there's considerable breakout potential. Aside from that, we’re not buying that the Red Sox are as good as these prices suggest. It may surprise you to learn that Boston has hit the fewest home-runs in the AL and second fewest in all of baseball.
David Price’s season debut against the White Sox last week went pretty well. He threw 88 pitches and had a swinging strike rate of 14%. He allowed just two hits in those five frames, he walked two and he struck out four but he still can’t be favored on the road. Price was fortunate that some of those hard hit balls were right at people. One of the hits was a bomb. His line drive rate was 30%. Incidentally, the Red Sox lost that game 5-4 as a -180 favorite and now Price is road chalk again. The market is giving way too much credit to Price. His ERA/xERA (3.99/3.92) last year in 35 starts was the worst in his career and he’s not getting any younger. He’s two months behind the rest of the league so with only two rehab starts and one MLB start, this is still like spring training for Price. He allowed 12 hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings over those two aforementioned rehab starts. Add it all up and both Price and the Red Sox are wrongly favored here and we’re on it.
The old quality start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. So when we mention PURE quality starts (PQS), we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.
Will Rogers
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Under 9
The set-up: Seattle's Danny Valencia hit a three-run HR and matched his career high with five RBIs as the Mariners established a season best for runs in Friday's 12-4 triumph over the Rays in the first of this three-game home series. The Mariners opened the season 2-8 but are enjoying one of their best stretches of 2017 and will look to win for the sixth time in seven games they host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday. Friday's loss was just Tampa Bay's third in its last nine games, as the Rays fell to 29-28 (Mariners are 26-30 on the season).
The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (4-4 & 3.67 ERA) takes the hill for the Rays and Sam Gaviglio (1-1 & 3.50 ERA) gets the ball for the Mariners. Cobb settled for a no-decision against Minnesota in his last outing despite giving up just one run and six hits over five innings. He's 4-4 in 11 starts and the Rays are 5-6. His ERA is 3.67 on the road and at home but while the Rays are just 1-3 in his home starts, they are 4-3 in his away starts. Cobb is 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA in six career starts against Seattle (team is 2-4). Gaviglio is a rookie making just his fourth major-league start after recording his first career win last time out despite a shaky performance. He gave up five runs on six hits in five innings against Colorado but prevailed in a 6-5 decision. Gaviglio has just eight Ks in his 18 innings, including only one in each of his last two outings. This marks his first start against the Rays.
The pick: Seattle had 11 hits and a season-high in runs (12) on Friday and expect Cobb to give them a little more trouble in this one. In Gaviglio's lone home start of 2017, he pitched five scoreless innings.
Gary Bart
Twins at Angels
Play: Angels
The Twins were struggling before winning the first two games of this series. They have been able to take advantage of Mike Trout not being in the lineup for the Angels. L.A. are below 500 on the season. This is a good pitching matchup. Look for the Angels to bounce back.
Oskeim Sports
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -162
Chicago southpaw Jon Lester has been phenomenal at Wrigley Field this season as evidenced by his 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in six starts. Lester has also garnered a 2.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in fourteen career starts against the Cardinals.
Technically speaking, the Cubs are 22-6 in Lester's last 28 home starts, 13-5 in Lester's last 18 starts versus .501 or greater opposition, 10-4 in his last fourteen starts during game 2 of a series and 21-9 in his last thirty starts overall.
Lester's surface statistics at home are fully supported by solid peripherals, including a 2.31 FIP and 3.28 xFIP. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' scuffling lineup is averaging just 3.4 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.289 OBP; .623 OPS), 3.8 runs per game versus division foes and 2.3 runs over the last seven games (.280 OBP; .660 OPS). In contrast, the Cubs are averaging 5.7 runs per game in division play and 5.1 runs per game at home.
Lester is backed by a very good Chicago bullpen that owns a 3.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season, including posting a 1.61 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in its last seven games. St. Louis relievers enter today's game with a 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road and an 8.66 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over their last seven games.
Technically speaking, the Cardinals are a money-burning 5-11 in their last sixteen games overall, 2-8 in their last ten road games versus teams with a winning home mark and 2-7 in Mike Leake's last nine starts against National League Central opposition.
I also like the fact that the Cubs are an incredible 28-7 versus starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.25 or less and 19-2 in Lester's last 21 home starts as a favorite of -150 or more, whereas St. Louis is 6-14 in Leake's last 20 starts against division opponents.
Finally, in Leake's last four trips to Wrigley Field, he has yielded a combined fifteen earned runs on 25 hits in 21 1/3 innings of work. Lay the price with the Cubs and invest with confidence.
Buster Sports
Tampa Bay at Seattle
Play: Under 9
Tampa Bay and Seattle play Game 2 of their 3 game series tonight in Seattle and we will be looking to make a play on the UNDER in this in this one. The starting pitchers are for the Rays RH Alex Cobb (4-4, 3.67 ERA) and he will face the Mariners RH Sam Gaviglio (1-1, 3.50 ERA) Cobb has pitched well this year for the Rays and in his last two road starts he has given up only 4 runs in 12 innings. He has not seen Seattle since 2014 so his career stats against the Mariners do not come into play but that will be to his advantage. As for Gaviglio this will be his 4th start of his career and in his only home start he allowed no runs over 5 innings. Gaviglio will be more comfortable at home and we see a similar result for the 27 yr old tonight as the Rays have not seen him yet. The oddsmaker has this line at 9 at the time of this writing and our numbers have it at 8 so we see some nice value here.
Cal Sports
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Play: Minnesota -108
This price is too good to pass up the Twins are 16-5 on the road and 2-0 as an AF. The Angels overachieved and were at .500 at 28-28 but then the best player in the AL, Mike Trout, was injured and out for an extended period. I expect a hangover affect. Minnesota’s Ervin Santana is 7-2 with a 1.75 ERA and a 0.844 WHIP but on the road the numbers are better as he has allowed a total of ONE runs and TEN hits in 4 starts posting a 0.31 ERA and a 0.724 WHIP. Matt Shoemaker is averaging just over 5 innings per start with a 5.21 ERA at home and a 1.374 WHIP.
Executive Sports
Colorado at San Diego
Play: San Diego -100
Padres have won 5 in a row and 7 of the past 9, while Colorado is 1-4 the past 5. COLORADO is 12-21 against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Chatwood 0-2 vs. San Diego this season!
Dwayne Bryant
Atlanta at Cincinnati
Play: Over 10
These two opened the series with a low-scoring affair, but I'm expecting runs-a-plenty in today's contest.
Atlanta's knuckleballer R.A. Dickey is certainly no strikeout pitcher, and he walks a lot of batters (10.7 BB%). Dickey's pathetic 5.40 xFIP indicates that more dismal outings await him. With active Reds hitters owning a combined career .924 OPS and .402 wOBA, this afternoon should be one of those days. The Reds are averaging a robust 5.3 runs per home game against righties this season, so you get the picture.
Cinci's Scott Feldman hasn't been terrible this season, but active Braves hitters own a combined career .337 average against him. Feldman is coming off a very rare start in which he did not walk a single batter. In his career, the OVER is 17-8 (68%) when Feldman is off a start in which he did not walk a single batter, including 9-1 since 07/08/2013.
Both bullpens are subpar. Atlanta's is worse, but the Reds' pen has gotten lit up in recent days.
We also get Mark Wenger behind the plate for this one, and he shows a strong Over bias.
Harry Bondi
MINNESOTA (+110) over LA Angels
Since Mike Trout went on the DL, the Angels offense has fizzled and there’s more bad news here tonight as they have to take on Twins starter Ervin Santana, who has posted a 1.75 ERA this season, including a 0.31 ERA on the road. In fact, the Twinkies have thrived this season away from home, going 15-5, thanks to a bullpen that has compiled a 3.18 ERA on the highway. Lots of value in this price. Take the dog!
Bob Balfe
Rockies -120
The Rockies have been hitting right handed pitching pretty well this year and believe it or not have been a decent road bullpen. San Diego lacks the ability to put up runs so all it will take is one big inning for Colorado to put this one out of reach. Chacin has been a weak pitcher this season. Look for the Rockies to roll.
Zack Cimini
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -104
Saturday's free play hails with the Mariners. Quietly Seattle has withstood pitching injuries and DL stints from key bats. In fact they've won five of their last six. Showcasing power is aiding the lineup especially with key signings like Danny Valencia starting to come out of their slumps. Travel isn't typically a main factor but Tampa Bay has had a grueling schedule re
TJ PEMBERTON
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle -103
Sam Gaviglio will climb the hill for the Mariners on Saturday night. Gaviglio is 1-1 on the season with 18 innings pitched. Gaviglio carries a 3.50 ERA with 8 strikeouts and 5 walks. Gaviglio pitched 5 innings in his last start allowing five earned runs on six hits. The Mariners average 4.4 runs per game which ranks 20th in the MLB.
Key Betting Trends:
Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.
Rays are 1-4 in Cobbs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
Mariners are 9-4 in their last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Mariners are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Free Betting Pick: Play on the Mariners
Seattle is the better team to back here on Saturday evening. The Rays may win the starting pitching match up but the Mariners should be able to put up some decent runs here. The Rays have a losing record on the road this season and look for the to remain on Saturday.
HANDICAPPERS HUB
Houston at Texas
Play: Texas +158
Ranger are a very good team especially at home going 17-11 and I really like the way Cashner has been pitching at home. Cashner is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home while McCullers comes in for the Astros just 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his road starts. There is so much value here today on the Rangers to get to McCullers at home and get the W behind another solidi start from Cashner.