DAVE COKIN
WHITE SOX AT TIGERS
PLAY: UNDER 8
Mike Pelfrey is on the mound for the Tigers, so I’ll understand any raised eyebrows at the thought of playing a game Under in which he’s pitching.
On the other hand, that concept is hardly far fetched when Chris Sale is throwing, and the superstar southpaw is on the hill for the White Sox today.
Earlier this week, I had a call on the Under in potential “shadow” game at Anaheim as the Angels hosted the Tigers. There’s a good chance those shadows could be in play for this game at Comerica. It’s a 4:10 PM EDT start in Detroit, and that means possible shadows and glare, which is no fun for hitters.
Sale could be really tough here, even against a Detroit lineup that includes some potent righty bats. His delivery is tough to pick up under the best of conditions. Add in the possibility of some elements courtesy of Mother Nature with the forecast for a decent breeze blowing in, and I like Sale’s chances of being strong today.
As for Pelfrey, it’s always a hope for the best at best situation. But at least the veteran Tigers hurler has been a bit more competitive lately, and he’s not facing Murderer’s Row here.
I don’t play all that many Totals, but when I do, I generally prefer looking for the low to get there, and I’m going to take my chances with today’s White Sox-Tigers game staying Under the number.
Sleepyj
Mariners / Rangers Over 9
I'll be on the over in this one...I can't trust either pitcher on the mound here..Both have pitched well in recent games, but the bats here bring plenty of pop..Both lineups are hitting rather well and the bullpens might be in play as well...Mariners bullpen is strong, but I expect Karns to last a little longer here..Texas might be in for a long day pitching wise, but the bats are hot right now..Close game, but 9 seems like an achievable number here.
Pens +120...Something tells me the entire world will be on the sharks..Pens haven't played the best hockey in t
Rob Vinciletti
Mets vs. Marlins
Play: Mets -113
The Mets are 21-2 a a road favorite off a road favored win where they scored 5 or more runs and they are 12-5 in Day games. Road favorites off a -140 or higher road favored win that scored 5+ runs on 10+ hits are 24-8 vs a team that scored 2 or less runs on 5 or more hits. Miami is 5-11 in day games and has dropped 6 of 8 as a home dog in this range. They have Lefty Nicolino going and he is 1-3 with a 5.24 era at home. Colon for the Mets has an extra day of rest and a solid 3.47 era on the year. He has been super in his last 2 starts here allowing just 1 run in 17 innings. Make it the Mets today.
Mike Lundin
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Mariners -108
The Texas Rangers moved one game ahead of the Seattle Mariners at the top of the AL West with a 7-3 win on Friday. The Mariners are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a loss, and I think they'll bounce back with a win tonight.
Nathan Karns (5-1, 3.43 ERA) will take the ball for Seattle. He's 1-0 with a 3.09 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers, both outings last season while with the Rays. Seattle has won eight of Karns' 10 starts this season and each of his five on the road where Karns is 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA.
The Rangers turn to Martin Perez (3-4, 3.12) who is is 2-2 with a 3.43 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) versus Seattle. He's struggled with Kyle Seager who is 10-for-22 with three homers in the matchup and while Perez's 3.12 ERA on the season is respectable, his 1.33 WHIP suggests it's somewhat undeserved.
Perez held Pittsburgh to a pair of runs on seven hits in six innings his last time out, but we can note that Rangers are 1-8 in Perez's last nine starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Scott Spreitzer
White Sox vs. Tigers
Play: White Sox -1½
The Chicago offense may get "just what the doctor ordered," on Saturday, facing Mike Pelfrey. The Tiger righty has a 5.50 ERA and a 0-9 record in his last 18 starts. He's been terrible at Comerica over his last 15 starts at the venue as both a Tiger and with his previous squad, and Pelfrey has completed six full innings just once in his last six trips to the hill. That spells more trouble for the bullpen with the league's 27th highest ERA. The Sox have bombed Pelfrey the last eight times they've faced him, saddling the 32-year old with a 6.20 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and a .349 BAA. When Detroit loses with Pelfrey as the starter, they do so in a big way. Six of their seven losses with Pelfrey on the mound have come by two runs or more. We expect the Sox to get to Pelfrey and the Tiger bullpen, while Sale shuts down the Detroit bats.
Art Aronson
Mariners vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9
Nathan Karns (5-1, 3.43 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, he most recently held the Padres to two runs over 6.2 innings while striking out six in the process. Karns would give up no more than three runs in any of his six starts in May and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road this season, going 3-0 with a very respectable 3.25 ERA to date. The visitors counter with Martin Perez (3-4, 3.12) who went six strong vs. the Pirates on Sunday, giving up two runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out three in the victory. It was the fifth time in six starts that Perez has registered a quality outing and note that he’s been downright dominant at home, going 3-1 with a tiny 2.23 ERA thus far. With these two quality hurlers facing off on Saturday night, the UNDER does indeed become a legitimate investment opportunity.
Jim Feist
Rockies vs. Padres
Play: Over 7½
Colorado has a powerful offense, fifth in baseball in runs scored, on a 5-1 run over the total this week (4-0 over on the road). Chad Bettis goes for Colorado with a 5.46 ERA and he has now recorded back-to-back miserable starts, allowing 13 runs in his last 8.1 innings. San Diego has been on a 7-1 run over the total. Andrew Cashner (2-5, 4.79 ERA) goes for San Diego, not having a good year. Cashner took the loss on Monday afternoon against the Mariners, allowing four runs over 6.1 innings. He allowed six hits, struck out three and walked one. Cashner was unspectacular in the month of May, allowing exactly three earned runs in each of his four starts. Once a great strikeout artist, Cashner has a career-worst 6.13 K/9 thus far in 2016. And the Over is 11-5-2 in Cashner's last 18 starts with 4 days of rest.
Matt Josephs
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Play: Under 8½
Matt Andriese is 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in five starts for the Rays with three of them going under the total. He is facing a Minnesota team that is hitting just .231 in day games going under in 13 of 23 games. The Twins are relatively underwhelming when it comes to an offense and they've shown it all season long. Ervin Santana is 1-4 with a 4.12 ERA in nine starts for the home team with five of those going under the total. Last year he got shelled by these Rays, but it was at their place. Desmond Jennings (2-8.) and Brad Miller (1-4) have had their issues with the veteran. This is a Tampa offense that entered Friday night hitting just .226 against right-handed starters. They are hitting just .241 in day games. Neither team's bullpen inspires much confidence, but hopefully we get enough innings from the starters that we don't have to worry.
Power Sports
Angels vs. Pirates
Pick: Pirates
The Pirates were humiliated a little bit Friday night, dropping the series opener to the Angels by a score of 9-2. I expect them to bounce back this afternoon at PNC Park. The Angels lineup, generally speaking, is not to be feared and remember they are w/o the DH here. So it should be a decrease in runs for them Saturday.
Bucs starter Jeff Locke has looked really good of late. He's 3-0 his last three starts w/ a 2.42 ERA and 0.851 WHIP. Last time out, he went the distance, dealing a three-hit shutout against Miami. He faced only one more batter than the mininum and 15 outs came via ground balls. The same Angels lineup that scored nine runs yday was shutout in its previous game.
Pittsburgh has one of the strongest lineups in the game. They are second in team batting average, third in OBP and sixth in runs scored. So I expect Angels starter Nick Tropeano to struggle here. Tropeano allowed 4 ER his last time out, the most he's given up since May 3rd. That start happened to come in a NL ballpark (Milwaukee). The home team gets its revenge here.
Tennis Insiders
Williams vs. Muguruza
Pick: Muguruza
Both women are powerful hitters, but Muguruza may well have the edge here. She handed Serena a 6-2/6-2 defeat in Paris two seasons ago, and this will be a huge test of Serena's willpower. Her abductor injury has certainly made things tougher, she dropped a set in her quarter final match vs Putintseva & is averaging 37 unforced errors in her last two matches. Muguruza lost to her in the Wimbledon final last season, quite a respectable 6-4/6-4 defeat though, earning a lot of plaudits for her maiden slam final performance. Her first serve will be crucial, she hasn't won less than 72% of her 1st serve points in any round so far. She will need to maintain this level to threaten Serena, but her clay court prowess gives her a real chance. Expect her to win at least a set and keep this one tight.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. San Jose
Pick: Under
The Pittsburgh Penguins made the most of their home ice advantage in the first two games of the Stanley Cup Finals as they enter the Shark Tank Friday night with a 2-0 lead in the series. While this isn't exactly an elimination game, the Sharks will likely treat it as such. With the stakes being so high, expect scoring chances to be few and far between.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - We saw the Blackhawks and the Lightning fail to score more than five goals in five of six games in last year's Stanley Cup Finals, and so far both games in this series have failed to reach the total. Another low scoring game is likely here in Game 3.
2. Special Teams - The Penguins may have a below average power-play (16th during the regular season), but their penalty killing unit ranks among the league's best. Pittsburgh is 0-for-5 on the power-play so far in this series.
3. X-Factor - The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the two teams.
Big Al
Mets vs. Marlins
Pick: Mets
Like the Energizer Bunny, Bartolo Colon just keeps going and going. About a week after his 43 birthday, Colon is having another solid season and you could easily argue that he's improved his numbers over last year. Colon's ERA (3.39) and strikeout rate (6.6) are both better than his 2015 numbers. But perhaps most impressive is the fact that Colon has significantly reduced his hit rate, which was a very unsightly 10.0 per nine IP last season. Few regular starters have a lower strikeout rate than the Marlins' LH Justin Nicolino who has punched out an average of just 3.6 batters per nine innings this season. Unfortunately, Nicolino's walk rate is almost as high and that's not a recipe for success at the Major League level. Colon has a very nice career ERA of 2.92 vs. the Marlins to go with a winning record (7-4) in 11 starts covering 77 innings. The Mets are 7-3 in Colon's last 10 road starts while the Marlins are 2-6 in Nicolino's last eight home starts. Heading into Saturday, the road team is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two.
MMA OddsBreaker
Dariush vs. Vick
Pick: Dariush
Beniel Dariush has the advantage over James Vick in every technical area of the sport. He's the much more well-rounded striker with more power and crispness to his stand-up. He's also a world class Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist should the fight hit the canvas. He was destroying Michael Chiesa in his last fight before making a mental lapse in the second round. As long as Dariush avoids making a silly mistake and as long as his conditioning holds up for a three round fight, he should be able to win easily. The only concern is if he gasses, but there's a good chance he can finish Vick quickly due to Vick's atrocious striking defense.
Bruce Marshall
Royals at Indians
Pick: Royals
It hasn't worked for the Royals the past two nights in this series but we suspect KC can find a way to prevent Cleveland from winning three straight to open this series. Rememebr that Royals starter Ian Kennedy pitched 7 scoreless innings in his last game at Progressive Field on May 4 and KC has won five of his last six starts. Meanwhile the Tribe lost for the first time in nine Josh Tomlin starts when he was hammered by Texas on Monday when allowing 8 runs (4 earned) and 9 hits in just 3 2/3 IP ina 9-2 loss.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Detroit
Pick: Chicago
Edges - White Sox: Chris Sale 3-0 team starts vs. Detroit last season, and 5-1 away team starts with 1.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. Tigers: Mike Pelphrey 1-6 as a dog, and 0-4 vs. southpaws this season. With Sale in commanding KW form with 38 K’s and 7 BB’s his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on the Chicago White Sox.