Scott Rickenbach
Atlanta at Los Angeles
Prediction: Over
Long-time followers know that I don't play big favorites and certainly laying a -400 on a money line would not happen. In this case, even laying -155 or -160 to be able to have the Dodgers on the run line -1.5 runs is also too pricey for my blood. I like to avoid laying big prices as certainly it goes against the overall philosophy of giving value to clients which is what this industry truly is all about! That said, I see value in this late Saturday night match-up with the over. The reason is that Bud Norris only is getting this start for the Braves because Mike Foltynewicz went on the disabled list. Norris is 1-4 in his 5 starts this season and he compiled an 8.74 ERA and a 1.99 WHIP in those outings. The over is a perfect 3-0 in his road starts this season. Look for him to get rocked by the Dodgers who have won 5 straight home games. Even though the over may seem "scary" with Clayton Kershaw on the mound for the Dodgers, the southpaw did give up 10 hits to the Braves when he faced them in late April. Facing the hapless Braves (worst team in majors) could result in a bit of a let-down for the big lefty and wouldn't be surprised to see him give up a few here while his counterpart Norris gets absolutely pounded. The Braves have played 15 games this season that had a posted total of 7 runs or less and only 5 of the 15 (33%) resulted in an under.
Don Best Consensus
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Pick: Tampa Bay
Head to Head TB are 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Minnesota. MIN are 3-12 in their last 15 home games. Andriese has been great since joining the rotation; going 3-0 with a 0.93 WHIP and 2.36 ERA. Twins starter Santana hasn't won since May 14th.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON -120 over Oaklana
Houston is a much better team when at home, especially when Colin McHugh toes the rubber. The right-hander is 22-11 in 36 career starts on this field and the Astros bullpen has compiled an impressive 2.19 ERA and 0.90 WHIP inside Minute Maid Park. The price is right. Lay the short number at home with Houston
Bob Balfe
Orioles -125
The Orioles have been good at home this year and have been crushing the baseball. The Yankees have not been good on the road this year and of late have been struggling to produce a lot of runs. Baltimore is always a safe play in their own park.
Bruce Marshall
Houston -1.5 +125
The Astros are cranking things up as they continued their ascent in the AL West with Friday's 12-2 win over the A's. On Saturday it will be turn of starter Collin McHugh, whose strikeout totals have soared in recent outings (26 in his last three starts), the last two of those being wins. Meanwhile the A's have lost in six of Kendall Graveman's last seven starts.
ASA
Yankees / Orioles Over 8.5
The Orioles have won 3 straight games and 5 of their last 8 and it is thanks to a surging offense that has produced 6.4 runs per game in this 8 game stretch. The Orioles have reached double digits in hits in 6 of their last 10 games and should pound the Yankees Nova today. Nova has given up at least 5 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts against the Orioles and has a 5.20 ERA in 14 career starts against Baltimore. Toeing the rubber for the Orioles today is Tyler Wilson. The Baltimore right-hander has been roughed up for 11 earned runs in his last 3 starts. The over is 4-2 in his starts this season. The over is 7-2-1 in Baltimore's last 10 home games. The Orioles enter Saturday's action on a 3-game winning streak and Baltimore has gone 7-3 to the over this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. We expect these strong trends to continue tonight.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -160
Houston snapped Oakland's five game winning streak with a 12-2 rout in the series opener last night. The Astros have won nine of their last 11 games. I expect another Astros win today.
Houston's Collin McHugh is in great current form, producing 26 strikeouts and just three walks in his last three starts (21 1/3 innings). Oakland's active hitters own a combined .254 BA, .688 OPS & .305 wOBA in 73 PA against McHugh.
Kendall Graveman has been a disaster. He owns a 7.23 ERA, 1.82 WHIP & .393 OBP in his five road starts this season. Active Houston hitters own a combined career .333 BA, .912 OPS & .399 wOBA in 34 PA against him.
The Astros also have a significant edge when the bullpens get involved.
Based on advanced metrics, Houston is my #10 team against righties, while the Athletics are #26.
BUSTER SPORTS
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians
Play: Kansas City Royals +117
The starting pitchers for today's game are for the Royals RH Ian Kennedy (4-3, 3.03 ERA) and he faces the Indians RH Josh Tomlin (7-1, 3.79) Kennedy has been one of our watch pitchers all year and although he has only a 4-3 win/loss record he has on many occasions deserved a better fate. In his last 3 starts he has held teams to 2 runs or less and came out with 3 no decisions to show for it. Now that's Hard Luck. On May 7, Kennedy was in Cleveland and received lots of run support as the Royals won 7-0 and Kennedy pitched 7 solid innings allowing only 4 hits. We will be looking for more of the same today. His opponent Josh Tomlin has had a great year himself going 7-1 but has had trouble with the Royals in the past, as he has a ERA of 4.98 and a WHIP of 1.210 in all starts against the Royals. Also Tomlin has been way better on the road this season with a 2.93 ERA. At home his ERA is a lofty 4.67 although he has won 3 out of 5 games started and a no decision in the other. So you can see Tomlin has been getting lots of run support so far this year. With the Royals hopefully getting their catcher Salvador Perez back today, that should be an added boost needed for the Royals to get the win. The Royals really don't need any more motivation as the Indians now only sit a half game behind them in the AL Central following yesterdays victory. S
CARMINE BIANCO
Ecuador at Brazil
Play: Under 2.5
Today's free play will be a late nighter as Ecuador face Brazil in the group B opener for both sides in a match being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasedena, California. A couple points to consider here which is why I'll lean to the Under 2 1/2 tonight. Brazil come into the competition looking to get back the reputation as one of the worlds best but they'll have to do it will a weakened squad as two of their stars will miss the competition. Neymar has decided to forgo the competition and get ready for the Olympics later this summer while Douglas Costa arguably their 2nd best striker is out with an injury and this week his replacement Kaka was also injuried. They'll have to find goals elsewhere but with players such as Gustavo, Oliveira and Rafinha also missing it may become that much harder. Ecuador although not a South American powerhouse come in knowing they've drawn into a weak enough group that advancing into the knockout stages is possible and a point here would be valuable so i'd expect a tight formation. Although they've used a 4-4-2 formation recently they may go to a 4-2-3-1 formation and long to strangle the Brazil attack in midfield. I'll lean on the Under 2 1/2 here.
Wunderdog
Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Toronto +120
The resurgent Toronto Blue Jays have won four in a row and suddenly only 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East Division after Friday's 5-2 win at Boston. Marcus Stroman gets a second chance at the Red Sox after a poor outing last time out in a 10-9 Blue Jays win. Stroman has pitched much better on the road this season where he is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA compared to 1-1 and 6.39 at home. The Red Sox have lost three in a row and Toronto has won five of the last six meetings, including a 5-3 win on April 17 against today's starter, Steven Wright. Toronto is 7-1 in Stroman's last eight road starts and 17-6 his 23 starts overall dating to last season. Play the Blue Jays.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +156 over Kansas City
While many refuse to spot -1½-runs with home teams, we do not for the simple reason that only about 20% of games are decided by one run. Last night for instance, the home teams won 9 of 15 games and only one of them, the Orioles, failed to cover the -1½ runs. That’s a common occurrence as opposed to a rare one. The take-back on these bets offer so much more value and while we will lose some of them, we will more than make it up for it in the payouts over time.
Josh Tomlin went out last game and proceeded to give up 9 hits and eight runs in 3.2 innings before getting the hook. However, Tomlin's start was tanked by Cleveland's defense, which committed four errors behind him. That forced Tomlin into throwing far more pressure pitches than he needed to. It was a rare bad start for Tomlin, as it was the first time all year that he failed to go at least five full. A bounce back is likely. The Indians have won eight of Tomlin’s nine starts this year. He’s a strike throwing machine with a BB/K split of 6/37 over 55 innings. He fell behind 11 of the 22 batters he faced in his last start, which led to his troubles but it’s also highly unusual for Tomlin to put himself in that predicament. Tomlin has quietly managed to bring great profits to his backers for two years running so we’re not going to allow one bad start to prevent us from coming right back on him here.
Ian Kennedy’s 3.03 ERA after 10 starts may have much of this market flocking towards him and the Royals here but we’d recommend caution. You see, Kennedy only has five pure quality starts in those 10 attempts and three of those came within the confines of his pitcher-friendly home. On the road, Kennedy has a borderline WHIP of 1.24. His fly-ball lean profile isn’t likely to play well during these warm nights at hitters parks like the one he’ll pitch in here. For eight plus years, Kennedy has been mostly mediocre and perhaps that is one of the reasons that Kansas City is his sixth team already. The Yanks, (who sign everyone), D-backs (twice) and San Diego (twice) all refused him one time or another and we’re refusing him today.
San Fran -1½ +154 over ST. LOUIS
Jeff Samardzija was rolling in May, both on the surface (1.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) and beneath it with 8.5 K’s/9, 1.4 BB’s/9 and a 48% groundball rate. That top-shelf command came with the support of elite command sub-indicators: 11.6% swing and miss rate, 67% first pitch strike rate and 68% overall strikes.Samardzija has eight outstanding starts in 11 attempts this year. He also has an elite ERA/xERA split of 2.84/3.04. In fact, there is not a single flaw in his profile, which makes him one of the top five pitchers in the game this season.
Michael Wacha’s profile has nothing but flaws. His 26% line-drive rate ranks him in the lower tier of starting pitchers. His 1.50 WHIP also ranks him in the lower tier of starters. In May, Wacha’s WHIP was 1.88 and pitchers with a WHIP in that range usually end up riding buses. Wacha has some decent skills that include 54 K’s in 61 innings but he also falls behind in the count often. Furthermore, his health history is concerning and we may be dealing with an injured pitcher here considering the awful under the hood skills he posted in May. Wacha had major shoulder issues late in 2014. He wore out in late August and all of September last year with a 7.88 ERA in the final five weeks of the season. Wacha is laboring big time with 11 walks over his past 24 innings. He’s been tooth and nails to get through five innings over his last five starts. Wacha is a pitcher to avoid. Don’t be surprised to see him end up on the DL very soon.
Seattle -1½ +153 over TEXAS
The Rangers came out swinging last night with some crooked frames early on but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on the Mariners in the middle game of this important series. Once a top prospect in the Rangers system, Martin Perez's career has been marred by inconsistency and injury. After missing much of the 2014 and 2015 seasons to Tommy John surgery, Perez has come back with a career-best 3.12 ERA through 11 starts in 2016. However, his skills scream out to sell immediately, as there is virtually no chance of him maintaining that low ERA. Perez's control has failed him early on, and a spike in his ball% shows us why. Perez has a BB/K split of 31/40 in 66 innings. With a soft-tossing strikeout rate in place, Perez's command continues to flounder in the danger zone, Perez can thank his fortunate hit % for his surface ERA gains but his xERA is on the rise for the second straight season. Perez's hot start to 2016 is mostly a mirage, as his inability to miss bats remains a major obstacle and he's issuing too many free passes. An elite groundball rate will help keep Perez in games, but this is not a skill set that supports any type of prolonged breakout. Look for a bunch of disaster starts from Perez over the next couple of months.
Nathan Karns is becoming elite right before our very eyes. Karns has a legit 3.43 ERA after 10 starts and his skills are continuing to trend the right way. In five May starts, Karns went 3-2 with a 3.08 ERA after walking just eight batters and striking out 28 in 29 frames. We’re seeing upticks in all the key areas that include his groundball rate, first-pitch strikes, swinging strikes and overall command. Most importantly, the oddsmakers have made the Mariners road chalk here with Martin Perez’s 3.12 ERA flashing in the faces of the market. We’re not the only ones that realize that Perez’s surface ERA is a mirage. The oddsmakers know it too.
Jeff Alexander
Pirates -120
We are simply getting too good of a price to back the Pirates at home in this one. Pittsburgh is simply undervalued here due to having lost 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall. The thing to keep in mind is most of those losses came on the road. They did lose at home in the series opener last night, but that was a tough spot. I'll take my chances on the Pirates putting an end to their skid behind starter Jeff Locke, who has a 2.42 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last 3 starts, including a complete game 3-hit shutout in his most recent outing. Adding even more value here is the fact that the Pirates are 23-7 in their last 30 home day games.
Ray Monohan
Colorado / San Diego Under 8
Petco Park is a very spacious ballpark that pitchers love to deal in. Given the total here and these two offenses, the Under holds good value. Chad Bettis goes for the Rockies and he has been dominant against the Padres. Bettis holds a 2-0 record with an ERA of only 1.82 through 7 career appearances.
Andrew Cashner goes for the Padres and he's been much better than his record indicates. He has allowed 3 runs in 5 straight starts and has given the Padres chances in every outing. He hasn't surpassed that 3 run mark often this year, as he has just 1 start with 4 runs or more. Both offenses don't have that overpowering ability either. These two teams will play small ball and manufacture runs.
Some trends to consider. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Given the Under trend here, along with both pitchers being pretty good at keeping the runs down, this is a solid spot to see a low scoring game.
Jack Jones
MLB | Jun 04, 2016
Tampa Bay Rays -109
The Tampa Bay Rays put an end to a five-game losing streak with a 4-2 victory over the Twins yesterday. I look for them to pick up back-to-back wins for the first time since May 18-20 due to the edge they have on the mound in this one.
Matt Andriese has not lost this season, going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in five starts. He has certainly been a pleasant surprise with the biggest key to his success being the fact that he's only given up one homer in 34 1/3 innings.
Ervin Santana just hasn't been very good this season for the Twins. He's 1-4 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in nine starts. Santana also hasn't enjoyed success against the Rays, going 6-6 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.422 WHIP in 15 career starts against them.
Minnesota is 7-27 (-18.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. The Twins are 2-16 (-14.3 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Santana is 1-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last two seasons. Minnesota is 1-15 (-14.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox -119
Boston is worth a look here at home on Saturday against division rival Toronto. The Red Sox are going to be motivated after losing 3 straight and it's worth noting they haven't lost 4 in a row this season. Boston will give the ball to knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 10 starts. Wright has been on the wrong end of some bad luck in his 2 starts against the Blue Jays this season, as he's lost both decisions, despite only allowing 3 runs with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. Toronto counters with Marcus Stroman, who has struggled a bit of late. He allowed 7 runs on 11 hits in his last start, which was against Boston. It was the second time in his last 3 outings that he allowed 7 runs and 10 or more hits.