Martin Griffiths
Atletico Paranaense vs. Santa Cruz FC
Play: Atletico Paranaense PK½-132
Atletico PR welcome Santa Cruz to the Arena da Baixada, in a Brasileiro Serie A match which the hosts are expected to win.
Atletico enter as the second-from-bottom in the league standings after 5 matches, but remain favourites based on their home record so far. The Furucão drew their first home fixture against Atletico Mineiro, before winning 2-1 over Figueirense last weekend. Following their initial heavy away loss to Palmeiras, Paulo Autuori’s squad have offered promising performances, and should be able to continue their respectable form at the Arena da Baixada with victory this afternoon.
While newly-promoted visitors Santa Cruz have enjoyed some success since returning to the top division, the team have struggled for consistency on the road. The side have yet to win in their away games this season, drawing against both Fluminense and Chapecoense. Milton Mendes’ team lost their most recent fixture on Thursday, losing to 18th-place Sport Recife, and appear to have lost their early momentum. Based on their recent results, it’s difficult to see Santa Cruz taking any points from their first encounter with Atletico PR in a decade.
Overall, I predict that the hosts Atletico will finish as winners over Santa Cruz in this fixture, claiming all three important points.
Jimmy Boyd
Phillies -107
Philadelphia is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Brewers. The Phillies snapped their 7-game losing streak with a 6-3 win over Milwaukee last night and I look for them to be the more motivated team here with the quick turnaround for today's afternoon matchup.
The Phillies will send out Jeremy Hellickson, who has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Hellickson has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last 4 starts. A stretch where he's only given up 19 hits and 3 walks in 27 innings of work. Hellickson is also 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.736 WHIP in 3 day starts this season.
Milwaukee is just 16-49 in their last 65 games against a starter who has a WHIP less than 1.15 and 3-7 in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after hitting .225 or worse as a team over their last 15 games.
Michael Alexander
Mets vs. Marlins
Play: Mets -109
New York starter Colon turned in his second straight strong outing on Sunday, following up his one-run, five-hit performance in a win over Washington by surrendering just two runs in six innings of a no-decision versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 43-year-old Dominican has kept the ball in the park in each of his last three outings and allowed just six homers in 61 innings this season. Colon owns a strong 7-4 career mark versus Miami with a 2.92 ERA, but did not pitch in the teams' initial series in April.
Dave Price
Baltimore Orioles -119
The Baltimore Orioles are one of my favorite teams to back when they are playing at home. They are never big home favorites, but they win at home at an alarming rate. Indeed, the Orioles are 25-10 in their last 35 home games overall. Baltimore is 50-19 in its last 69 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Orioles are also 79-35 in their last 114 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Yankees are 0-6 in Ivan Nova's last 6 starts vs. AL East opponents. Nova sports a 5.20 ERA in 14 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore. He has given up 14 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last 3 starts against the Orioles.