Free Picks for Saturday, May 13th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
SENATORS AT PENGUINS
PLAY: UNDER 5.5
The Ottawa Senators look to continue their magical playoff run as they open the Eastern Conference Finals series against the heavily favored defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Senators are big dogs for obvious reasons. They’re even bigger dogs, however, if they end up playing end to end wide open hockey against the potent Penguins.
Ottawa’s one shot in this series, at least from this vantage point, is to turn the games into grind it out affairs where tight checking and conservative play is a must.
I would think Ottawa’s best opportunity to implement that game plan is in this opening game. There’s no way I’ll suggest the Penguins are going to be flat after eliminating the Capitals. But if there’s one game where Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest, this ought to be it.
Tight defense, a slower pace and good goaltending are the elements that need to be there for the Sens to shock the Pens. I expect that game plan to be in evidence here and if it plays out that way, goals might be a bit tough to come by. That being the case, I’ll gamble on the Under 5.5 juiced in the series opener.
DAVE COKIN
PADRES AT WHITE SOX
PLAY: PADRES -133
If you’d have told me prior to the start of the season I’d even consider laying this kind of price with the Padres at home, I’d have been skeptical. On the road, it wouldn’t even be a consideration.
But as lousy as the Padres are, they’re looking like a right side here. Trevor Cahill is on a phenomenal roll, and he’s matched up against an overmatched rookie in Dylan Covey.
Aside from that, I can’t say much positive about the Friars. But in addition to a badly struggling starter on the mound in Covey, the Chisox have a multitude of other problems right now to boot.
They’ve lost six straight. Chicago is getting short in the bullpen with Nate Jones having joined Zack Putnam and Jake Petricka on the disabled list. Geo Soto is now also back on the DL and shortstop Tim Anderson is away from the team this weekend.
The main deal here is Cahill, who aside from occasional control lapses, is doing just about everything right. The White Sox look like an ideal opponent for Cahill, as they’re not at all disciplined on offense, with the worst BB rate in the majors. I’ll bank on Cahill maintaining his roll, and if he does, even the Padres should be able to do enough with Covey to win as road chalk.
Mike Lundin
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
The Kansas City Royals are dead last in the MLB with only 106 runs scored through 35 games. They won Friday's matchup with the Baltimore Orioles 3-2, and I think we'll see another low-scoring contest Saturday night.
The Royals' Nathan Karns (2-2, 4.58 ERA) has allowed just one run on five hits through 12 innings of work home at Kauffman Stadium this season. He's struck out 17 through 12 1/3 frames while allowing just a pair of runs on seven hits in his last two starts overall. The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who will make his second start of the year. He missed the first five weeks of the regular season with a shoulder injury but worked five shutout innings against the White Sox to earn a win in his season debut on Sunday.
Under is 8-1 in Tillmans last nine road starts. Under is 6-1 in Royals last seven home games. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.
Ray Monohan
Chicago vs. St Louis
Play: St Louis +105
The Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals continue their series on Saturday in a game that should be a great game for people who enjoy good pitching. I think the Cardinals have a little advantage on the mound, and why I back them. On the mound for the Cardinals is Michael Wacha who has pitched really well during the day this year. He has a record of 2-0 and an ERA of 1.93. He has pitched well in the National League Central as of late and I see that continuing in this game.
On the mound for the Cubs is Jon Lester. He has good stats this year but hasn't been as dominant as last year so there will be opportunities for the Cardinals. Some trends to note. Cardinals are 5-1 in Wachas last 6 starts vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 7-1 in their last 8 Saturday games. Cubs are 1-4 in Lesters last 5 starts vs. National League Central. I think Wacha will be dominant in this game and that will be the difference.
Brandon Lee
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Royals -103
Kansas City is worth a look here, as they have quietly started to put something together. The Royals squeaked out a 3-2 win thanks to Eric Hosmer's go-ahead double in the 8th inning. KC has now won 4 of their last 5 and I like their chances of keeping it going. The Royals are going to send out one of the more underrated starters of the early 2017 season in Nate Karns, who comes into this game with a 3.63 ERA in 6 starts. He's got an even better 2.95 ERA over his last 3 starts and a rock solid 0.75 ERA in 2 starts at home. Baltimore will give the ball to their veteran ace Chris Tillman, who will be making his 2nd start of the season. His first was pretty good, throwing 5 shutout innings against the White Sox at home. He did have 3 walks and I look for a little more trouble on the road, plus he owns an ugly 5.71 ERA in 9 career starts against KC.
Scott Spreitzer
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee -104
New York has lost two straight and the Mets have lost their closer, Jeurys Familia, for an extended amount of time due to a blood clot in his shoulder. Robert Gsellman has a 6.54 ERA, but has been blessed with a lot of run support for a 2-2 win-loss record this season. Gsellman has allowed 13 runs (nine earned) and 10 hits in 9 2/3 innings on the road and will be facing the Brewers for the first time in his career. Zach Davies has settled down after a rough start to the season and Milwaukee has won his last four starts, including a 6-2 win at Pittsburgh when he allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have won four of their last five while scoring a total of 32 runs. Davis has an extra day of rest and Milwaukee has won six of his last eight starts with five days of rest dating to last season.
Marc Lawrence
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Royals -104
Edges - Royals: Karns 2-0 with 0.75 ERA and 0.67 WHIP home team starts this season; and 5-1 last six home team starts… Orioles: 2-9 last eleven games in this park… With Karns in sharp KW form with 22 Ks and 3 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Kansas City.
Dustin Hawkins
Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Orioles -104
Baltimore starting pitcher Chris Tillman is 16-6 against a team with a .255 batting average or worse in the past 2 seasons. He is also 20-7 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base % of .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are also 22-11 against the money line in all their games this season.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs -107
Not to often you are going to be able to back the Cubs at basically a pick'em with their ace Jon Lester on the mound, but that's exactly what we got here. I know the Cubs are going to be without starters Jason Heyward and Addison Russell and possibly even reigning MVP Kris Bryant, who missed yesterday's game, but this team is absolutely loaded.
Lester has owned the Cardinals, posting a 1.86 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in 13 career starts. Over the last two seasons he's pitched 25 and 2/3 innings against St. Louis and allowed a whopping 3 runs on 18 hits with 28 strikeouts. Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez pitched extremely well against the Cubs in the season opener, but he had really struggled against them prior, as he enters with a 4.45 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 10 career starts against them.
Mike Anthony
New York vs. Milwaukee
Play: New York +100
The NY Mets have weaknesses obviously - but they have been very underrated on the power side of their bats and their fielding assists are not anything to ignore. NY RF Jay Bruce, has well above average batting skills. And Gsellman with his slider is pretty tough to hit - so Milwaukee will be watching many of them soar over the low end of the plate. The Brewers have one ace pitcher in Wily Peralta - but Milwaukee on the whole - doesn't have what the Mets are bringing here. Milwaukee has an infield that is running off fumes, and struggling as well. Davies is struggling to keep guys off the bags over the last couple games - eve though Davies still maintains his K ability most of the time.
Jim Feist
Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Pick: Under
Ottawa does not look to push the tempo, #22 in the NBA in goals scored, #23 on the power play. They prefer slower pace, #10 in goals allowed. Ottawa is 60-28-4 under the total against the Metropolitan division, 35-17-4 under in the Senators last 56 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh can play any style, off a 2-0 win in Game 7 at Washington. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Penguins last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle at Toronto
Pick: Toronto
From the looks of things, the Blue Jays are finally beginning to put things together, now just six games under .500 for the first time since mid-April after last night's 7-0 romp past the Mariners. Toronto starter Marcus Stroman has been dominant in three of his last four outings and pitched six innings of shutout ball vs. the Red Sox in his last trip to the mound.
Doc's Sports
New York at Milwaukee
Play: Under 9
The Milwaukee Brewers are off to a nice start and they have their hitters to mostly thank. However, they've slowed down offensively of late and teams are starting to pitch around slugger Eric Thames. The Mets have also had trouble getting runs lately and that's more to do with injuries than anything else. When you're missing guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Lucas Duda and David Wright, your production as a team is going to suffer. We have two underrated starting pitchers slated to go in this Saturday matchup - Robert Gsellman and Zach Davies. Gsellman has a bloated ERA, but his peripherals are much better. He doesn't give up too many free passes, but he needs to avoid the home run ball. Davies is sort of like Kyle Hendricks-lite, as he knows how to pitch but doesn't have overwhelming stuff. I don't expect either team to explode in this one, so we're on the UNDER in our Free Play selection for Saturday.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series - Ottawa +255 over PITTSBURGH
Series wager. If you’ve been listening to sports radio or the talking heads on the TV networks, there seems to be little reason to play this Eastern Conference Final at all. These are the same people that all said Washington and Chicago will be meeting in the Stanley Cup Final. They simply can’t wrap their heads around a lower seed beating a higher seed and certainly can’t wrap their heads around the champs losing to the last standing Canadian team that was predicted to be the first Canadian team knocked out of the tournament.
When healthy, Pittsburgh is the best team in the NHL. When fully loaded, the Pens have speed, defense, goaltending, role players, star power and intangibles. They’re well coached and Sidney Crosby does things offensively that other great players haven’t even thought of yet. If you think Crosby is overrated, you couldn’t be more wrong about anything. Back in February, the NHL revealed the 100 greatest players of all time and we promise you that Evgeni Malkin was superior to at least 20 of them. That he was not included on that list is remarkable. Yes indeed folks, the Penguins are the champs and deserved to be last year when they were healthy and steamrolled through four grueling rounds while making both the Rangers and Sharks look like minor league clubs. However, these are not the same Penguins that rolled through the competition on their way to the Cup last season.
Despite injuries to key players like Kris Letang, Trevor Daley and of course Sidney Crosby, the Penguins have persevered despite being outplayed nearly every single night of these playoffs. The Pens have allowed over 35 shots per game in the post-season, which is the most of any squad that made it to the dance. Pittsburgh might be loaded with star forwards but they have also been the beneficiary of suspect opposition goaltending while Marc-Andre Fleury has bailed out their nonexistent defence time and time again. In Games 5 and 6 against the Capitals, the chinks in Fleury’s armour began to show, as he gave up nine goals on 58 shots in those two games for a combined save percentage of .845. He had a rough patch in the Blue Jackets series as well. There’s no steady sailing with MAF, as he’s either been out of this world or godawful. Let’s not forget that Fleury was replaced by a rookie last season and lost his starting job. The point is that he can lose it at any time.
Under the hood, it does not look good for the Pens either. Pittsburgh is dead last of all the playoff teams in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage at 41.99 while scoring on nearly 10 percent (9.87) of their shots taken 5-on-5. During the regular season, the Penguins were a top five team in that stat category with a 8.58 shooting percentage. Pittsburgh’s shooting percentage in the playoffs has been off the charts, thus regression is very likely. Meanwhile, the Senators held a puck possession edge on Boston in the first round and Boston was the NHL’s top possession team going during the regular season. They also created more scoring chances against New York in round two and held a significant Corsi For edge in that series as well.
Both Sergei Bobrovsky and Braden Holtby were uncharacteristically off their games by a wide margin when facing the Pens in the first and second rounds respectively. Holtby looked nervous and played nervous while Bobrovsky looked worse than Antti Niemi. Each and every night of these playoffs, the Penguins were the second best team on the ice in just about every single period and clearly in every game. What has defined the Penguins this playoff season is brutal giveaways, sloppy play, weak breakouts out of their own end and the only reason they made it out of the first and second rounds is due to their extreme puck luck. Washington hit 14 more goalposts and crossbars than the Penguins in the seven game series.
Finally, we have the letdown factor after the Penguins blew a 3-1 series lead that forced them to play a Game 7 in Washington. The letdown factor would not come into play had the Penguins not won the Cup last year but they did. That at least takes away some of their hunger to continue. Despite beating the Caps, that series was very physical with the Pens’ captain taking the brunt of many of the blows. The Penguins wanted to beat Washington badly and now anything more might be anti-climactic. One has to question how much the Pens have left in the tank after 12 months of basically non-stop hockey. The Pens sent six players to the World Cup of Hockey in September after that gruelling Cup run. Connor Sheary and their captain are both one hit away from missing more time but we’re not counting on that. We’re counting on what we’ve seen in 12 playoff games from the Penguins and that is at least 10 very fortunate victories while getting badly outplayed by both the Jackets and Capitals. This is a dead-tired and banged up team that is out of gas and that does not have that ficticious “on” switch available.
The Senators figure to be more energetic and hungry here. After escaping the physical Bruins and their monster puck possession numbers, the Senators took care of the speedy Rangers and now look primed to make a run to their first Stanley Cup Finals in a decade. Coach Buy Boucher and his team have been playing the “nobody gives us a chance” card these entire playoffs and it has created a group with a chip on its shoulder. For whatever reason, both the market and the so-called experts do not like these Senators despite being one of the NHL’s most consistent teams since the puck dropped in October. It may surprise you to learn that Ottawa had the second most victories (17) in the league against top-10 teams. Only the Caps were better with 18 and Washington was a -170 favorite to beat Pittsburgh last round.
Overshadowed by the darling Leafs and Oilers, the Sens can’t seem to break through as “Canada’s” team. Before Game 7 between the Caps and Pens, we heard two prominent hockey writers debating the Sens “shocking” run and both were convinced that regardless of the outcome, Ottawa’s dream season would end in the Eastern Conference Finals. If both teams were hungry and healthy, Ottawa would be up against it here but that is not even close to being the case. At this very moment, Ottawa is in a much better position to advance than the Penguins. Ottawa’s defence blows away anything the Pens can put on the ice at this point. Ottawa runs out three very solid lines that are all capable of scoring and Craig Anderson can get just as hot as any goaltender in the league. Beyond the X’s and O’s, which does not favor the Penguins anyway, the Senators have a legit beef with this Penguins’ team after Sid the Kid mangled defenseman Marc Methot’s finger in a game earlier this season and we know the Sens have not forgotten Matt Cooke’s skate stomp that severed Karlsson’s Achilles tendon in 2013. There is some bad blood here even if it’s only one-sided, thus the Senators will have no problem finding fuel for their fire. This is a rock-solid, extremely talented Ottawa team with a player that is playing like Bobby Orr and that is no fu**ing joke.
Finally and most importantly is that the line here is complete lunacy. We’re strongly suggesting that Ottawa has a better chance to win than Pittsburgh based on everything we’ve seen this playoff season from both teams. Pittsburgh can’t get out of its own end these days and almost everyone up front is burned out while the Senators are not. By far, the best player this playoff year has been Karlsson and when you have a player playing like he is, look out (see Wayne Gretzky, Guy Lafleur, Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, Bryan Trottier and others). This line is based on results and perception and not performance and we’ve pointed out the flaws in that many times over the years. In terms of value, this is one of, if not the biggest overlay we have seen in a very long time. Again, we’re giving the Senators a better than 50% chance of winning and will play it accordingly. We’ll also play the Senators in each game individually as long as nothing changes. Massive overlay my friends that must be played.