MMA OddsBreaker
C. Sherman vs R. Coulter
Pick: Over 1.5
Coulter is a finisher but I don’t see him putting Sherman away early in this contest. I actually think this fight either ends in a late finish or decision, and I do think it could be anybody’s fight. I can’t play either side at the current odds, but I do like the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at near dog odds.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +118 over SAN FRAN
26-year-old Lisalverto Bonilla was once was a promising, raw prospect early in his career in the Phillies and Rangers organizations. Unfortunately, after pitching in the majors for 20.2 innings with Texas in 2014, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. The Reds obtained him off waivers in February 2017. Bonilla has always impressed with his pure stuff, but he can’t find a role or stay healthy long enough for the stuff to matter. He can fire his fastball in the 94-96 mph range and complements it with a below-average slider and very good change-up. His off-speed pitch borders on plus status. He has thrown quality strikes throughout his career and gets swings and misses with his power arsenal. Bonilla has moved back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, though no organization has been able to make a final decision. He had 118 K’s and 40 BB in 111 innings, working as both a starter and reliever in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2016.Bonilla will be the immediate rotation replacement for recently demoted Rookie Davis. The decision is somewhat surprising given Bonilla's lackluster 2017 Triple-A performance to date. Bonilla has a 5.61 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in five Triple-A starts, with 27 K/9 BB in 25.2 IP. No question that he’s a wild card. He can mow them down like nothing and the Giants have made a lot of ordinary pitchers look very good this year. Bonilla has a “live” arm and is worth a shot here against a Giants team that has two wins in their past eight games.
Acquired at the 2016 trade deadline, Matt Moore posted a 4.08 ERA in 12 starts for the Giants, which was identical to the mark he recorded in his 21 starts with the Rays. This season, Moore is 1-4 in seven starts with an ERA/xERA split of 6.52/4.78. Moore's skills weren’t overly impressive last season and nothing has changed this season. He has cut down on the walks the past couple of seasons, and now has his first-pitch strike rate hovering around league average. He'll still issue his fair share of free passes, but it may not be the problem it once was for him. He's consistently shown the ability to miss bats with 7 K’s/9 but that’s where all the good news ends. Moore allows a lot of fly balls and line drives. He swing and miss rate is below league average at 8%. His 1.55 WHIP is awful and he seems to be getting worse instead of better. Over his last five starts, Moore has a BB/K split of 13/25 in 25 innings with a horrid 1.86 WHIP and an ERA/xERA split of 8.53/5.07. He also pitches for the team with the worst winning percentage in baseball.
Minnesota +136 over CLEVELAND
Michael Clevinger was called up to replace the injured Cory Kluber and in his first start of the year five days ago, he threw 5.2 innings of one-hit ball and did not allow a run. That’s nice but it was in Kansas City on a cool night against the lowest scoring team in MLB. The Royals have scored 106 runs this year. The closest team to the Royals in futility is the Giants with 120 runs scored. Clevinger struck out five but he walked four. Last year, Clevinger went 0-3 with a 5.26/4.94 ERA/xERA split in 53 innings for the Indians. Clevinger has some upside with a decent K-rate and this now becomes his second full year back from TJS. He’s done pretty well versus lefties and he’s also a winner in the minors with an 11-1 W/L record. However, his walks are way up and that’s never a good thing at this level. Righties continue to hit him hard and he’ll see a bunch of those here. Clevinger’s heavy fly-ball lean led to serious HR issues last year and this is not the park to serve up hard hit fly-balls. There are some skills here but he’s inexperienced, he’s not had much success at this level in 150 MLB innings and at least for now, we’ll leave him alone to learn while he’s the chalk.
Jose Berrios is an enigma. Dude came in highly touted last year and was absolutely torched in 58.1 innings before mercifully being sent back down. In those 58.1 frames for the Twins last year, Berrios allowed 74 hits and 52 earned runs for an ERA of 8.04. He walked 35 batters and struck out 49. All of it was uncharacteristic including the walks. In 591 minor league innings, Berrios walked just 164 batters while striking out 610. His oppBA in the minors in five-plus seasons was just .218. It would appear that he’s thrown a lot of minor league innings but this kid is just 23-years-old so he's been pitching in the minors since he was 18. By any measure, it was a horrible debut for this top prospect. Was it nerves? Perhaps so because he’s been lights-out in AAA since with a 2.51 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 125/36 K/BB split in 111 innings. With nearly 200 innings at AAA under his belt, the foundation for growth is there. This kid has pure strikeout ability and he’ll now get his second chance at this level so we’re willing to gamble that his first exposure was all nerves with expectations being too high. His stock has dropped dramatically since his MLB debut and now expectations are tempered so now would be the time to buy.
COLORADO -1½ +215 over Los Angeles
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
8-11 + 9.88 units
ARIZONA -1½ +135 over Pittsburgh
The Pirates might be the worst team in baseball. They don’t score runs, they have a lousy six wins in 21 road games and they don't do anything particularly well. Perhaps the worst part about this team is that they’re getting used to losing and don't seem to care. Pittsburgh opened a three-game set in Arizona last night with an 11-4 loss after getting destroyed by the Dodgers in L.A in a three-game set in which they were outscored 21-6. The Pirates will come to the park today expecting to lose because that’s their mindset these days.
Trevor Williams makes his second career start after also getting torched in Los Angeles in his MLB starting debut. Williams lasted a mere three innings and surrendered seven hits and six runs. All told, he’s appeared in five games for the Pirates this year and it’s getting worse. Williams has walked eight, struck out six and comes in with a 2.67 WHIP. In his seven appearances thus far, six have been at pitcher-friendly venues but this one is not. Aside from being shell-shocked, Williams’ confidence is also shot and his chances of getting through even four innings appear to be remote at best. There is nothing good about the Pirates today.
Taijuan Walker went 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 134 innings for the Mariners last year and that’s not good when considering he pitched most of his innings in pitcher’s parks. However, flat feet apparently caused foot and ankle issues that led to flat skills in the 2nd half but his 1st half was a strong continuation of his 2015 growth. Walker has yet to post a full season ERA under 4.00 but his xERA says it's there for the taking and now he's on the precipice of bigger and better things. Walker spent the offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and it’s working. His previously rarely used sinker and slider are now much bigger parts of his arsenal (2016 usage: sinker 2%, slider 1%) and that’s working too. Walker has 40 K’s in 40 frames with just 12 walks issued. He’s throwing hard and his K’s have the full support of a 13% swing and miss rate. He’ll now face what appears to be an unmotivated team that is just going through the motions while pitching for an enthusiastic bunch that can’t wait to play some more ball. Can this one go any other way? We trust not.
Will Rogers
Tigers vs. Angels
Pick: Angels
The set-up: The LA Angels had been held to one run in each of their previous two games (including in a 7-1 loss Thursday night against Detroit) but exploded for 14 hits en route to a 7-0 triumph over the Tigers on Friday night. Mike Trout was back in center field for LA after returning from a hamstring injury as the designated hitter on Thursday. He had a two-run HR, giving him a hit in 18 of his last 19 games. J.D. Martinez was back to the lineup Friday for the Tigers and went 1-for-3 in his season debut. Martinez had been sidelined since suffering a strained ligament in his right foot during spring training. The Tigers fall to 3-4 on their nine-game road trip and are 17-17 on the season, in third-place in the AL Central but just two back of the first-place Twins.The Angels happen to be in second place in the AL West but at 18-20, are already eight games back of the first place Astros!
The pitching matchup: Daniel Norris (2-2 & 4.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Tigers up against Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.31 ERA) of the Angels. Norris has surrendered four ERs in three of his last four outings, including a no-decision at Oakland on Sunday in which he yielded five runs over just 4 2/3 innings. He has worked fewer than five innings in each of those three starts and has not lasted more than six since his season debut (6 1/3). Norris will be facing Los Angeles for the first time in his career. Nolasco has allowed three runs or fewer in five of his seven starts this season but has won only two of those contests. He settled for a no-decision at Oakland on Monday, despite giving up just two runs on five hits while striking out a season-high 10 in seven innings. Nolasco has made nine career starts against Detroit, going 2-4 with a 4.09 ERA (teams are 3-6).
The pick: Norris was traded to the Detroit Tigers along with Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt in exchange for David Price back in 2015 and was considered the "key player" in that deal according to the Tigers. However, the Tigers announced that Norris would start the 2016 season on the disabled list, due to a lower back issue suffered during spring training. Norris would make just 13 starts in 2016, finishing the season with a 4–2 record and a 3.38 ERA (Tigers were 8-5 in his starts). Much was expected from him in 2017 but so far, that hasn't been the case. Nolasco's looked good in three of his last four outings, posting a 2.41 ERA in those three, along with a 17-2 KW ratio. I'll side with the Angels.
Larry Ness
New York at Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
The 19-17 Milwaukee Brewers have now won four of their last five, after a series-opening 7-4 triumph Friday night against the Mets, a game in which Milwaukee hit four HRs to pull even with Washington for the major-league lead (55). The Mets have now lost two straight, falling to 16-18. Both the Brewers and the Mets will have new closers Saturday when they play Game 2 of a three-game set at Miller Park. New York placed right-hander Jeureys Familia on the disabled list Friday after he underwent surgery to remove a blood clot in his rough shoulder, while Milwaukee pulled Neftali Feliz from his ninth-inning duties after another rocky outing a day earlier. Feliz was signed over the winter to handle the ninth inning but was 0-4 with a 6.19 ERA in 18 appearances!
The pitching matchup features Robert Gsellman (2-2, 6.54 ERA) for the Mets and Zach Davies (3-2, 5.60 ERA) for the Brewers. Gsellman has lasted more than five innings just once in six starts this season, although he has won each of his last two outings. Gsellman has squared off against both the Marlins and Atlanta three times this year but has yet to face Milwaukee in his brief career. Davies has won three straight decisions, including an outing at Pittsburgh on Sunday in which he allowed two runs and recorded a season-high seven strikeouts over 5.2 innings. Davies has made two starts against New York in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA (Brewers are 1-1)
Davies seems like the more reliable starter at the moment, having gone 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA in his last four starts (team is 4-0). Meanwhile New York's starting staff is dealing with injuries plus off-the-field issues and Gsellman hardly looks like a savior with that 6.54 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and opponents .316 BAA.
Power Sports
Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
The Buccos are just a bad baseball team right now. They've lost six in a row while getting outscored 40-13 in the process. Meanwhile, the team they lost to last night is now 21-16 as the respective run differentials continue to go in completely opposite directions. While Arizona has outscored its opponents by 31 runs over the course of the season (3rd best in the N.L.), Pittsburgh has posted a -41 diff, which is the N.L.'s third worst.
Really scary is that the four runs scored by the Pirates last night were their most in any game during this six-game slide. Given the way Trevor Williams pitched his first time out, the run suppression side of the ledger seems to be in some trouble today as well. Williams' 2017 season debut saw him give up eight runs, in just three innings, and that was at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Chase Field, home to the D'backs, tends to favor the hitters - especially the ones wearing the home uniforms. Arizona is averaging a healthy 6.3 rpg here so far w/ a .304 team batting average! They scored 11 times in last night's win. Again, keep in mind, that's nearly the same amount of runs as the Pirates have scored in their last six games - combined.
Arizona won't be lacking in motivation tonight either after Chris Ianettea took a fastball to the head last night. I also like the fact that starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has allowed 3 ER or fewer in five of his seven starts this year. These are clearly two clubs trending in opposite directions right now.
Scott Rickenbach
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Mariners +161
I know Ryan Weber struggled badly in spring training this season and has yet to impress consistently at the big league level but he certainly responded well after a rough March in spring action! Weber has been pitching at the highest level of the minors, AAA, and has gone 2-0 with a 0.85 ERA and a .180 batting average against in his 6 games (5 starts) at the AAA level this season. He has earned this start today and, the way Weber is throwing, I would not be surprised to see him enjoy solid success against the Blue Jays today. As for Toronto, Marcus Stroman takes the mound and though he has a low ERA on the season he has been giving up a lot of hits. Also, the right-hander's strikeout numbers have been trending downward. Basically, Stroman has been pitching to a lot of contact and that works well against most teams but that could spell trouble against a Mariners lineup that had been red before some struggles in the first two games of this series. The M's are 12-6 in recent seasons when off of a shutout loss and had averaged 7 runs per game in going 6-2 in their 8 games prior to yesterday's 4-0 loss. The Blue Jays are an ugly 5-10 this season when off of a win. Plenty of big dog value on the Mariners here and they are absolutely worth a look in ultra early Saturday action.
Chip Chirimbes
A's vs. Rangers
Play: A's +100
Sonny Gray (0-1, 4.22 ERA) is making just his third start of the season after starting the year on the disabled list losing at Minnesota last Saturday. Grau has had plenty of success against Texas going 8-3 with a 2.51 ERA in 12 starts. The Rangers will start Nick Martinez (0-2, 5.18) who is struggling of late is 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA against Oakland in 11 career games (seven starts).
Tony Karpinski
Rays vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox
Lefty pitcher Chris Sale has showed nonstop progress with his great skills and a guy who is always a threat for 12+ Ks /game where he gets in the groove. The last time Boston faced the Rays - Boston was in their pedal to medal mindset - and the Sox were fantastic. It is hard to bet against Boston and Sale here.
I'm actually kind of taken back that the Rays have struggled so badly in the W dept. Tampa Bay is 4th in the AL East for a reason - because they don't hit well enough or pitch for that matter. Boston is gong to win this easily - walking away here on Saturday afternoon.
Wunderdog
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -4.5
The LA Sparks won it all last season, and the inside presence of both Candance Parker and Nneka Ogwumike will be tough to handle this year. The duo gives the Sparks the only pair of players with an MVP. The loss of Kristi Toliver will be a tough one, as rookie first round draft pick Sydney Wiese is going to have to be a presence from beyond the arc. Seattle was an old team that has started to get young again. Yes, Sue Bird is still around, a link to the past, but Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd offer a promising future for the Storm. I think the Storm is still growing, as their best players are still very young, and the best time to beat them this season will be in the early going.
Jack Brayman
The Arizona Diamondbacks welcomed the Pittsburgh Pirates two nights back, and ace Zack Greinke outshined Bucs ace Gerrit Cole. Last night the Snakes won their third straight with another win over the Pirates.
The victory by the Snakes sent Pittsburgh to its fifth straight defeat. Tonight I think we're getting the Snakes at a steep price, but it's a free play and I'm on it.
Pittsburgh simply isn't suited to play well in Phoenix's desert heat, as Chase Field will be sweltering from high temps and Arizona's bats.
The Diamondbacks recently ended a streak in which the Snakes scored just 29 runs while losing seven of 10 - an average of 2.9 per game. Thursday night's low-scoring game was understandable, and as I told you right here in this spot, last night would be different. The Snakes won 11-4.
Pittsburgh has lost eight of 10, and will once again fall in Phoenix.
Lay the price.
5* DIAMONDBACKS
Chris Jordan
If there is one team I've always looked for around this time of the season, when it is playing at home, it is the Blue Jays. They can get dangerous in their own ballpark, especially when it comes to the long ball.
With a 4-0 win last night, Toronto assured itself of at least a split in its four-game series with Seattle. Plus, the Blue Jays have won three straight for the first time this season and are closing in on .500 after a 2-11 start.
They have won nine of their past 13 games, and appear to be in a nice groove.
Play the Jays, and on a side note, as of 5:30 a.m. pacific, there is no line. If the line is -150 or less, I want you playing it straight. Anything higher, take Toronto Run Line.
5* BLUE JAYS
Eric Schroeder
My free play for tonight is on Minnesota, against the Cleveland Indians, and in the game I want you listing just Twins starter Jose Berrios.
The young right-hander is making his long-awaited season debut after putting up incredibly dominant numbers in Triple-A ball. In six starts at Rochester, he was 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 39.2 innings.
Add in the fact the Twins are now 10-4 on the road and the Indians are just 6-7 at Progressive Field, and you can see why Minnesota is a smart play with its young hurler on the bump.
Take Minnesota as the road pup here.
1* TWINS
Brad Wilton
Kansas City edged Baltimore, 3-2 last night. Look for Baltimore to return the favor tonight.
The Orioles had won 6 straight prior to losing their last pair of games, and the one thing Buck Showalter's club has not done yet this season is lose 3 in a row.
Chris Tillman looks to keep it that way, as he makes just his second start of the year for the O's. Tillman had been sidelined with a shoulder injury, but it looks like he is back on track, as he worked 5 scoreless innings in his season debut against the White Sox in earning the win.
Nathan Karns has looked strong his last couple of times to the hill, so I am not expecting a Baltimore cake-walk by any means, but since the Royals have the worst record in the American League, I will play the percentages and take the Orioles to bounce-back and stop their 2 game slide.
3* BALTIMORE
ALEX SMART
Seattle @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -4.5
I am betting Seattle will not be in cohesive form and at full strength after a number of key players missed last week's exhibition games due to injuries.(Bird , Stewart, Quinn) Meanwhile, the Sparks despite of losing top three point specialist Kristi Toliver to free agency, are still a viable defending championship team that must be respected on their own home floor , with Candice Parker healthy and reingning WNBA MVP Nneka Ogwumike ready to play and dominate.
DENNIS MACKLIN
Athletics vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9½
Texas got off to a slow start but is sowing "buy signs" of turning things around after B2B walk off three-run homers in the first two games of the series. Sonny Gray is pitching for a new home this summer and Nick Martinez (2.94) is always good at Texas Stadium. Texas has won four straight and get the Phillies on this field at the beginning of the week meaning with a win here that this run could go on for quite a while.