JOHN RYAN
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -158
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
So, The Pittsburgh Pirates and CWS are engaged in a horrid 6-game losing streak. So, how many of you have seen situations like this and thought that the team of this quality just has to win today to stop the losing ways. That there will be a team urgency to stop the losing and get back to winning. Nothing wrong with that logic, but with the help of a massive database containing all games played dating back to 1871, we can get far different results.
Let’s tap into it now. When the Pirates have been on a 6-game or more losing streak, with the current game on the road and installed as +150 dog or higher, they have gone just 4-13 SU since 2004. If you played on the Pirates during this span you would have lost $590 per $100 wager. If you had bet against them, you would have pocketed $510.
Our team also likes to use ROI, just I did throughout my Wall Street career to assess an investment. We also use Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) too, but let’s only focus on the ROI. So, for this situation, playing against the Pirates produces a solid 15.4% ROI using the money line and a 14.2% ROI using the Run Line. This all points to another losing day for the Pirates in Arizona.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
Team Power Situations
Arizona is a solid 14-3 (+11.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons.
Methodology Discussion Points
If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Diamondbacks.
JACK JONES
Athletics vs. Rangers
Play: Rangers -110
The Texas Rangers come in with a ton of confidence right now after back-to-back walk off 3-run homers to beat the Padres and A's, respectively. They have now won four straight while outscoring the opposition 25-7 in the process.
Nick Martinez has been great at home this season, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in two home starts. Martinez certainly enjoys facing the A's as well, going 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in seven career starts against them.
Sonny Gray just isn't the same since getting injured last season. He is 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in two starts this season. Gray has given up 11 earned runs and 5 homers over 18 innings for a 5.50 ERA in his last three starts against Texas.
The A's are 3-13 in Gray's last 16 road starts. Oakland is 2-9 in its last 11 road games. Texas is 8-2 in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The A's are 3-7 in their last 10 trips to Texas.
TEDDY DAVIS
Mariners vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -1½
Blue Jays bats are waking up scoring 11 runs the past two games. They have won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. Stroman is their best pitcher and he is coming off his best performance of the season against the Indians going 6 scoreless innings. Mariners are sending Weber out making his debut this season. He is running into a buzz saw
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO CUBS (+105) over St. Louis
We have picked our spots and made some money this season going against the Cubs. who are typically overrated, but today the price is right to jump on them. St. Louis continues to struggle against left-handed starters as they average a full run less per game as compare to when they face righties. What’s more, Cubs starter Jon Lester has had great success vs. the Redbirds, posting a career 1.86 ERA against them, including a 2-0 record and 1.00 ERA in four starts in this stadium. Let’s take the underdog price with the better starting pitcher, better bullpen and better offense.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers/Rockies Over 11
Tim Anderson has been awful for the Rockies and their bullpen is just as bad. The Dodgers should be able to put up runs in almost every inning. Colorado is the best team in baseball against left handed pitchers so I expect them to score a ton of runs also. Look for a back and forth slug fest.
Jeff Benton
Saturday free play comes in hockey, as I back Pittsburgh -1 1/2 goals to open the Eastern Conference Finals with an easy win over Ottawa.
Marc Andre Fleury just blanked Washington in Game 7 on the road, and he should be feeling pretty good tonight as he faces the upstart Ottawa Senators.
The Penguins did lose the last pair of regular season series meetings to the Senators, but those 2 games were played in Ottawa.
Tonight the Pens put their strong home ice on the line, and with wins in 13 of the last 16 home games against the Sens, strong chance the host takes care of business in Game 1.
Overall, the home team stands at 20-8 the last 28 times these teams have skated, and I like the Penguins to open with a 2 goals or better win over underdog Ottawa.
2* PITTSBURGH -1.5
JOHN MARTIN
Braves vs. Marlins
Play: Braves +119
Atlanta ace Julio Teheran is certainly worth backing at this +119 price Saturday. He has been at his best on the highway with a 0.93 ERA in three road starts this season. Teheran is 5-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 15 starts against the Marlins as well. Edinson Volquez will be making his first start back from the DL tonight and is sure to be rusty. Volquez is 0-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in six starts this year. The Marlins are 3-13 in their last 16 games overall. Miami is 0-6 in its last six home games. The Marlins are 1-5 in Volquez's six starts this season. The Braves are 40-17 in the last 57 meetings in Miami.
DAVE PRICE
Cubs vs. Cardinals
Play: Cubs +105
Jone Lester is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in 7 starts this season for the Cubs. He has dominated the Cardinals throughout his career, going 5-4 with a 1.86 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against them. Lester is 2-0 with a 0.46 ERA in his last 3 starts against the Cardinals while yielding only 1 earned run in 19 2/3 innings. Carlos Martinez is 3-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 10 lifetime starts vs. Chicago. The Cubs have the better starting pitcher, better bullpen and the better lineup in this one, yet they are dogs.
BLACK WIDOW
San Diego at Chicago
Play: Chicago +128
Bets on all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (Chicago) with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, with a tired bullpen that has thrown at least four innings in three straight games are 64-34 (65.3%, +46.2 units) since 1997. The White Sox are undervalued after losing six straight coming in and will be hungry for a win tonight.
Zack Cimini
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Pick: Dodgers
Sometimes seeing a star pitcher get hit the night prior increases value against a team. Last night Clayton Kershaw wasn't his typical self as he allowed seven hits to the Rockies. Still this is a Rockies team that's over achieving pitching to start the season is starting to show a bit of reverse course. Their bats are also looking to gain proper traction as Ian Desmond works his way back and the Carlos Gonzalez adjusts to moving down to the sixth batting spot. Grab the Dodgers here as road favorites.
OC Dooley
Twins +140
My sources indicate there has been offshore action midday towards visiting Minnesota who shockingly with an upset victory can secure FIRST PLACE along (over Cleveland) in the American League Central division which in itself is big news for this traditional bottom-feeder. Minnesota has called up NUMBER ONE pitching prospect Jose Berrios for this game and he actually made his major league debut a year ago against the Indians setting up unique revenge. Berrios led the entire International League in ERA (1.13) this campaign and he is facing another starting pitcher who has toiled recently at the Triple-A level. When pitching for Cleveland at the major league level a year ago Mike Clevinger (5.26 ERA) struggled. Not only are the Indians below .500 at home this campaign, the offense has been held to 3-or-less runs EIGHT times in the past 10 games. On the flipside Minnesota has WON at a staggering 10-4 clip so far in ROAD setups such as this