DAVE COKIN
SERIES - SHARKS +115
I don’t see a great deal to choose between the Sharks and Blues. They’re neck and neck on my power ratings chart. I make the goaltending, a critical element on the Cup playoffs, a virtual dead heat between Martin Jones and Brian Elliot. San Jose has the more explosive offense in my view, while I would give an edge on the blueline to the Blues.
But I do see a few subtle edges for San Jose overall. As solid as the Blues special teams were in the win against Dallas, the Sharks power play comes into this series in ultra-high gear. San Jose lit the lamp eight times with the man advantage against Nashville, and I think it’s fair to say the Blues had better avoid taking any silly penalties in this series or they could find themselves in trouble.
Both teams have big stars who appear to be in top form. Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture are rolling for the Sharks and Brent Burns would probably be my Conn Smythe pick if the award was based on just the action to date. Vladimir Tarasenko continues to be a magician with the puck for St. Louis, David Backes has been superb and Patrik Berglund has been very impressive.
I think this has a chance to be a great series, and I’d be very surprised if it’s a short set. But I do have a very slight edge for the Sharks on my numbers, and perhaps what I like the most about San Jose is that they finally appear to be shedding their image as a bad post-season team. Maybe not having the pressure of high expectations did the trick this time, but whatever the reason, I think this is a go with team right now.
The price is not spectacular in terms of value as the Blues do have the home ice advantage and they therefore pretty much have to be favored. But as I like the San Jose side just a bit better i also naturally like the idea of getting them at plus money. I’ll take the small dog odds with the Sharks to win this series and get to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Ray Monohan
Mets vs. Rockies Mets
Play: Mets -104
The Mets continue their series with the Rockies and New York has solid value here. The Mets have dominated on the road this year going 12-7 SU while holding the opposition to just 3 runs per game.
They'll send out Logan Verrett, who will be coming out of the bullpen to make a start here. Verrett has been stellar on the year as he sits with an ERA of just 1.27. He'll be opposed by Eddie Butler, who will making his first start on the year inside Coors Field. He's had one relief appearance this season there, but that still isn't the same. He'll endure a lot of tough challenges here as he struggles to keep his pitches down, which could result in Mets hitters hitting some balls deep with the thin air.
Some trends to consider. Mets are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Mets are 16-5 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter.
With the Mets success against RH pitchers, combined with the Rockies just simply struggling at home, New York holds solid value.
Mike Lundin
Minnesota at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland -185
The Cleveland Indians defeated the Minnesota Twins 7-6 last night, the reeling Twins' eighth consecutive loss. The Tribe are now 6-1 in their last seven home games, and I like the odds of their success home at Progressive Field to continue today with Corey Kluber on the mound.
Kluber (2-4, 4.14) has had a rough start to the year, but his last outing home in Cleveland was an excellent one when he tossed nine scoreless innings of five-hit ball against Detroit. Kluber has a .220 batting average against over 218 at bats versus the current Minnesota team.
The Twins turn to Ervin Santana (0-2, 3.86 ERA) who owns a 4-10 record and 4.47 ERA in 19 starts versus the Indians. Mike Napoli is 7-for-19 with three homers and 10 RBIs against the right-hander who lasted just 3 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss at Chicago White Sox his last time out. Santana has allowed a total of 11 runs (eight earned) on 19 hits and seven walks through 15 innings in his last three starts.
Twins are 2-8 in Santana's last 10 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game.
Marc Lawrence
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play:Diamondbacks -130
Edges - Diamondbacks: Patrick Corbin 2-0 with 0.00 ERA last two team starts in this series; and 6-1 last seven team starts during May. Giants: Jake Peavy 3-12 last fifteen away team starts, including 1-7 the last eight; and 0-5 his last five away team starts during May. With Peavy 0-3 with a 14.25 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP in his away starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Martin Griffiths
Atletico Madrid vs. Celta Vigo
Play: Atletico Madrid -116
Atletico can no longer win the title following their loss last week against Levante and have absolutely nothing to play for in this game, their focus will be on the Champions League final and they are playing against a strong Celta Vigo side.
There is not much at stake for the respective sides and you cannot avoid the fact that Atletico are a superior side to Celta Vigo, they have lost just once at home this season and that was against Barcelona, they will not want to lose in front of their home fans, that you can take to the bank.
Celta obviously have a chance and will be competitive, but they are just not good enough to beat this Atletico side.
The odds on a Atletico win are quite high for them, which is a huge surprise, the odds makers obviously believe that Atletico will not be at their best, that is a mistake in my opinion, this is a very proud team who will want to finish the season in front of their fans with a win, they are too professional not to.
Jim Feist
Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Under 9½
San Francisco heads out on the road on a 5-1 run under the total. Starter Jake Peavy is on the hill and the team is 13-6 under the total when he starts with 4 days of rest. Arizona has lefty Patrick Corbin going, getting it together allowing 3 runs his last 12 innings with 2 walks and 9 strikeouts. Corbin came away with a no-decision Sunday despite tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out five. The Under is 15-6-1 in Corbin's last 22 starts vs. a team with a winning record. And the under is 10-2 when these teams clash.
Matt Josephs
Astros vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9½
The Red Sox have put up double digit hits in five straight and eight of their last 10 entering Saturday. Charged with slowing them down is Collin McHugh who is 4-3 with a 5.51 ERA and a WHIP of 1.631 in seven starts with four of them going over. He struggled against the Red Sox at home on April 22nd when he allowed five runs and 10 hits in four innings. McHugh's last start in Fenway Park came last July when he allowed four runs and seven hits in just over five innings. Boston has gone over in six of their last eight and are hitting .261 in day games. The Astros bullpen has an ERA over six on the road. Clay Buchholz is 2-3 with a 5.90 ERA and a WHIP of 1.437 in seven starts for Boston with four going over the total. Buchholz was shelled in Houston earlier this year giving up five runs in an 8-3 loss. Houston has the capability to hit the ball well and showed it on Friday night. They have gone over in 12 of their 17 road games. This one should go over too with two vulnerable starters.
Larry Ness
San Francisco at Arizona
Prediction: Arizona
Peavy's opened the season 1-4 with an 8.47 ERA, 1.91 WHIP& with opponents batting .351 against him...
My free play is on Arz D’backs at 8:10 ET.
The Giants opened the season with a formidable five-man starting rotation, all have been aces of one rotation or another, over their careers. Bumgarner (4-2, 2.72 ERA), Cueto (5-1, 2.97) and Samardzija (5-2, 2.88) have held up their end but Cain (0-5, 6.99) and Peavy (1-4, 8.47) have been, to say the least, unqualified disasters. Peavy takes the mound tonight at Chase Field, having opened the season 1-4 with an 8.47 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and with opponents batting .351 against him (Giants are 2-5 in his seven starts, minus-$335 vs the moneyline).
Peavy hopes to end a three-start losing streak and help the visiting Giants win a season-high fourth in a row on Saturday night. He has allowed at least four runs in FIVE of his seven starts, including at least SIX, three times. He's also surrendered seven HRs, four of which came in a loss to Cincinnati on May 4. Peavy’s faced the D’backs 35 times in his career (17-13, 4.456 ERA / teams are 19-16 in those starts) but owns a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts against Arizona, after giving up four runs in five innings of Arizona's 9-7, 11-inning victory this April 18.
The D’backs have dropped three straight (including the first two of this two-game series), following a five-game winning streak. They've been outscored 27-8 during a five-game home skid and are 5-14 at Chase Field to open 2016. Patrick Corbin will try to help Arizona snap its skid, coming off his best effort of the season this past Sunday. He allowed five hits in seven scoreless innings of Arizona's 5-3, 11-inning victory over Atlanta. Corbin won the NL Pitcher of the Month Award for May 2013 (5–0 record and 1.53 ERA in five games started) and was named an All-Star that season. He had an 11–1 record with a 2.35 ERA, which was the third best in the NL at the All-Star break. He was the eighth youngest player named an All-Star at the time and finished that year 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA.
However, during spring training in 2014, Corbin felt arm tightness during a start. An MRI revealed damage to his ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow and he underwent Tommy John surgery, missing the entire 2014 season. He was back to make 16 starts in 2015, going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA (team was 9-7, plus-$201 in his starts). He’s made seven starts this year, going 1-3 with 4.12 ERA (team is 3-4). Corbin is 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants (D’backs are 6-5) but I’ll take him here over the REALLY struggling Peavy.
Cajun Sports
Athletics vs. Rays
Play: Under 8
The Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays take the field at an odd start time make a note of their 6:10PM Eastern Time start on Saturday. They will be playing Game Two of their three-game weekend set. The A’s took Game One on Friday night by a score of 6 to 3. We know the A’s are 4-11-1 Under coming off a straight up win in their last game. Oakland is 7-15-1 Under facing a starter whose WHIP is less than 1.15. The Rays are 1-10-2 Under at home facing a right-handed starter and 5-17-5 Under facing a right-handed starter overall. For the Rays they are 4-13-1 Under when playing at the Trop. Tampa Bay has gone 6-15-2 Under when facing a starter whose WHIP is greater than 1.30 on the season. The listed Umpire for this game is Mark Carlson who is a pitchers ump and he is 2-5 Under his last seven behind the plate. We will play this one to finish on the low side of the oddsmakers number on Saturday night.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Texas
Pick: Toronto
The Blue Jays blanked the Rangers yday (I had the Under!) and I think they are more than capable of doing the same thing again tonight. At the same time, it won't be long until this offense begins to break out. Last year, they averaged nearly 5.5 runs per game. Texas had just three hits yday and will struggle again here as they face Marco Estrada.
Estrada is deserving of far better than a 2-4 team start record. I say that because he has a 2.39 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. Every single one of his starts this year have stayed Under simply due to the fact the Toronto offense has yet to score more than three runs in any of his six outings. Estrada was quite the hard-luck loser his last time out as he only gave up one run and three hits in 7 IP. He has now allowed only 1 ER in three of his past four starts.
I expect the Jays offense to start providing more support for Estrada. Rangers starter Colby Lewis has allowed at least one home run in six of his seven starts, so that should help. His numbers here at home are actually slightly worse than on the road.
Brandon Lee
Reds vs. Phillies
Play: Reds +150
I really like the value we are catching with Cincinnati in Saturday's matchup against the Phillies. The Reds are a miserable 2-11 on the road this season and that's definitely playing into this line. Tim Adleman will take the mound for the Reds an I've really been impressed with what I have seen so far. Cincinnati has won both of his starts since he joined the rotation, including one of their road wins at Pittsburgh. He's got a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. Philadelphia will give the ball to Aaron Nola, who has an impressive 3.13 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in 7 starts, but he's struggled in both of his home outings, allowing 11 runs on 13 hits in 12 innings, both losses for the Phillies.
Jimmy Boyd
Diamondbacks -130
Arizona is showing some decent value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Giants on Saturday. The Diamondbacks have dropped each of the first two games in the series, which has provided us with this favorable line.
San Francisco won the first two games behind two dominant pitching performances from Cueto and Samardzija. This time the Giants will be sending out the struggling Jake Peavy, who comes in with a 8.47 ERA and 1.912 WHIP in 7 starts. Peavy's been even worse than that on the road, where he's 0-3 with a 14.25 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in 3 starts.
Arizona will counter with Pat Corbin. While he hasn't been lighting it up in 2016, his 4.12 ERA and 1.282 WHIP are at least respectable. Corbin also comes in off his best start of the season, as he tossed 7 scoreless at Atlanta last time out. In his last two starts against the Giants, Corbin hasn't allowed a run over 13 innings.
Peavy is 2-14 in his last 16 road starts after a win and the Giants are 2-9 in their last 11 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less. Arizona on the other hand is 19-4 in their last 23 against a starter that allowing 1 or more home runs per start.
MMA OddsBreaker
Demian Maia to win by submission +155
Demian Maia is currently a huge -330 betting favorite against Matt Brown. What's Maia best at? Submissions and ground game, of course. If Maia is going to finish this fight, it will be via submission and Brown is no stranger to getting tapped out. It's been a while, but he's been finished via submission four times inside the Octagon and Maia is the most dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu player he's faced yet. If Maia can put Brown on his back, he should force a stoppage via tapout at some point so at +155 odds, I'm all over it.
Millerlocks
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Patrick Cummins
Everyone is picking Cummins in this fight and here is why they are very wrong. Cummins is a pure wrestler and that is it. He is not a great striker and has basically no ground skills. On the other hand Nogueira is a great boxer with even better BJJ. No doubt Nogueira has been training subs from his back for this fight and that's what I see happening. Cummins eats a few punches, goes for a take down, gets it, gets subbed. Nogueira by submission
John Lineker vs Rob Font
John Lineker is a beast. He is giving up a few inches to Rob Font but he should be able to control this fight standing and on the ground. John Lineker mixes it up better than Font and earns a UD
Thiago Santos vs Nate Marquardt
Santos has looked pretty good so far in the UFC, but I do not understand why Marquardt is as big of a dog as he is. To me this is a pick em fight so with the odds the way they are the value is in Marquardt all day
Oskeim Sports
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Play: Houston Astros +120
Boston fans have grown tired of right-hander Clay Buchholz, who is 2-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this season. The 31-year-old also owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home and a 5.40 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his last three starts. Buchholz's underlying metrics provide little hope for the Fenway faithful: 4.98 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.88 SIERA, 3.89 BB/9, 1.30 HR/9 and a 41.0% GB rate. In his lone start against Houston this season, Buchholz yielded five earned runs in just 5 2/3-innings of work.
While Houston starter Collin McHugh toes the rubber with a 5.51 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 2016, he has posted a decent 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three starts. McHugh has been unlucky with a .374 BABIP so his surface numbers should regress closer to his 4.03 FIP and 4.16 SIERA in the near future. The 28-year-old's command has not been an issue (2.10 BB/9), but he has given up more long balls than usual (1.31 HR/9 vs. 0.84 HR/9 in 2015).
The Astros are 17-5 in McHugh's last 22 starts versus teams with a winning record and 11-5 in his last sixteen starts overall, including 4-0 in his last four outings in game 3 of a series. In contrast, Boston is 8-20 in Buchholz's last 28 home starts, including 2-10 versus .499 or worse opposition. With Boston standing at just 8-15 as a home favorite with Buchholz on the mound.