Gary Bart
New York vs Colorado
Play: Colorado
The Rockies are below 500 but have played descent baseball at times during this season. New York are above 500 and in the playoff hunt. The Mets were a very good team last season and have played great baseball lately. I like Colorado at home over the Mets in this one.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 56-42 run with free picks: Miami at WASHINGTON, Game 2
The STORYLINE in this game today - Miami and Washington are hooking up for a doubleheader today in the nation's capital. And while I don't know what is going to happen in the opening game, I like my chances with this matchup in the second game. Miami is throwing young Kendry Flores, and I like this kid in this game.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Alright, so let's talk about the young right-hander. Flores is one of Miami's top five prospects, and is being promoted from Triple-A New Orleans to make the second-game start. He made one start in seven MLB outings in 2015, so he's had a cup of coffee. Now he's looking to earn a meal. This is his big chance, and I like it. At New Orleans, he had a 2.59 ERA in 31 innings.
BOTTOM LINE is - Look, we all know how good Washington is, there's no doubt about it. But the Nationals aren't invincible. We saw that against the Cubbies last weekend. Washington will get tripped up against this kid, not knowing what to expect from this kid's arsenal.
3* MARLINS
Chris Jordan
My free play for Saturday night is on the senior circuit, as I love the Los Angeles Dodgers over the St. Louis Cardinals, and this pitching mismatch I see with Scott Kazmir and Carlos Martinez.
Let's start with Kazmir, who came within an out of a quality start Monday. That may not seem like a big deal for the outside, but quality starts are benchmarks pitchers count on. And unfortunately for the southpaw, it wasn’t enough to get his third win as a Dodger. I know he has allowed multiple home runs in four of his seven starts, but he's going to be on a mission tonight, and I like him to challenge this lineup.
Martinez, meanwhile, comes in after having his start pushed back two days to help him recover from a respiratory illness. He left his last start after 51 pitches due to fatigue, and is still trying to put back on about 15 pounds of strength he lost while sick. That is a lot of weight, in terms of strength. That tells me he has lost something from his velocity. He will struggle against this lineup.
Play Los Angeles and list both starters.
3* DODGERS
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the White Sox and Yankees Over the total.
I know Jose Quintana has been razor-sharp for the Pale Hose this season - 5-1 with a 1.38 season era! - but I also know that his counterpart Ivan Nova is making just his second start of the season since coming out of the bullpen, and both the White Sox and the Yankees have been playing them rather high of late, so I will side with the runs to add up to just enough to push us Over on Saturday afternoon in the Bronx.
With last night's series opener playing high, the White Sox have now played 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 8 Over the posted price, while the Yankees have played their last 5, and 6 of their last 7 on this home stand Over the posted total.
While New York may not be able to muster all that much off of Quintana, if they are able to plate 2 or maybe even 3, then I expect the Chicago sticks to do the rest of the damage.
White Sox-Yankees Over the total.
1* WHITE SOX-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Brad Wilton
Right now it's a safe assumption that anytime the Red Sox grab the lumber they will be involved in a game that lands Over the total.
That trend continued on Friday, as the BoSox put up 6 runs as they sailed Over the total for the 5th straight time in as many games on this home stand at Fenway Park.
Houston is now 3-1-1 Over the total in their last 5 games after Friday's affair in Beantown.
It will be Collin McHugh and Clay Buchholz in charge of keeping the sticks tamed, and since McHugh sports a 5.50 ERA, and Buchholz sports an ERA of 5.90 for the season, I would say the sticks on both sides should be making solid contact in this afternoon affair.
McHugh has seen 2 of his last 3 starts wind up in the Over column, and both hurlers have seen 4 of their 7 overall season starts land Over the total, so let's not pick today as the day they decide to silence the bats.
Astros-Red Sox to go Over.
3* HOUSTON-BOSTON OVER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is in American League Central action, as I like the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins, and I'm playing this game on the Run Line. I think Cleveland is in a good spot right now, I think the town is abuzz because of the Cavaliers and it's a weekend. Far too many good things taking place in the Land, to not play this on the Run Line.
I don't care who is going, with everything I told you about the hype. Plus, you have a struggling Twins team that has lost eight straight, 10 of 11 and is a dismal 2-16 on the road this season.
In two categories I hold close to my money, Minnesota is batting a weak .222 on the road this year and has just 61 runs while ordering room service. And that won't cut it in this park, against this team.
Cleveland is in second place in the American League Central, and it would love to be able to keep pace with first-place Chicago White Sox, who is in the Bronx for the weekend. And you never know what is going to take place at Yankee Stadium. If the Sox lose a couple, and the Tribe sweeps, next week's four-game series in Chicago could be interesting.
Take Cleveland on the Run Line.
3* INDIANS
Jack Jones
A's/Rays Under 8
Two of the lightest-hitting teams in the American League square off tonight when the Oakland A's take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The A's are hitting .249 and scoring 3.8 runs per game this season. The Rays are hitting .222 and scoring 3.5 runs per game, including .213 and 3.1 runs per game at home.
Kendall Graveman admittedly is not off to a good start for the A's. But he's facing the perfect opponent to get back on track. In fact, Graveman is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two career starts against Tampa Bay, pitching 12 shutout innings while allowing only 9 base runners.
Matt Andriese has filled in nicely in the Rays' rotation. He allowed just one earned run in 7 innings of a 3-1 victory over the Angels on the road in his lone start this season on May 8th. Andriese has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six starts dating back to last season. He is 2-0 with a 1.31 ERA in his last four starts overall.
Tampa Bay is hitting .207 and scoring 2.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season. To no surprise, the UNDER is 15-4 when the Rays face a right-handed starter this year. The Rays are also 13-3 UNDER vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs per game this season.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers +110
The Detroit Tigers have inexplicably gone 1-10 in their last 11 games overall. It's safe to say that they're hungry for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Orioles. While Anibal Sanchez hasn't been great this season at 3-3 with a 5.89 ERA, I believe he's the better starter in this matchup. Mike Wright has been worse for the Orioles, going 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in 5 starts. Look for the Orioles to relax a bit today after winning six straight games coming in, including the first two games of this series. I like the price we're getting with the motivated Tigers here. The Tigers are 9-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons.
Harry Bondi
BOSTON -130 over Houston
Double-whammy here for the Astros. Not only is Houston 19-42 in their last 61 road games, but starting pitcher Colin McHugh has also been dreadful away from home, posting an ugly 11.68 road ERA this season. That doesn't bode well here today against a Red Sox line up that is the hottest in baseball. Despite last night's one-run loss, the BoSox have scored five runs or more in 10 out of their last 13 games. Take the better offense, the better bullpen and the hotter team at home at a very short price.
Jimmy Moore
Boston Red Sox -140
Big home/road advantage for the Sox here as they are good at home and Houston is really bad on the road. Buchholz has been improving each start this season and his career record against Houston is excellent at 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA.
Bob Balfe
Rays -135
Oakland had a hot first inning yesterday and did all their damage via the long ball. I don’t expect them to go yard like they did last night and Graveman has been downright awful to start the year for them. If Andriese can prevent the big home runs tonight we should see the Rays win by a big margin.
Wunderdog
Atlanta @ San Antonio
Pick: Atlanta -6.5
Atlanta has a star in guard/forward Angel McCoughtry (20.1 points per game), one of the league's best players. Atlanta brings an 8-2 spread run into this game and has some new pieces to help McCoughtry. The team added center/forward Elizabeth Williams from the Sun, the former fourth overall pick in 2015. Layshia Clarendon is a role playing guard comes over from Indiana. Atlanta was second in the league in scoring last season with 77.8 ppg. They head to rebuilding San Antonio, off an 8-26 season and they still lack good low post players. The Stars were last in the WNBA in scoring last season, plus fourth worst in points allowed, while bringing a 2-7-1 ATS run into this game.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +125 over TAMPA BAY
Kendall Graveman fits the profile of a young unheralded starting pitcher, since he doesn't have top-shelf raw stuff or a top-prospect pedigree. However, Graveman came in as a groundball specialist last year and he’s maintained that high rate (54%) this year. That’s a good start. Graveman’s stuff is now starting to miss bats at a higher rate (11% swing and miss rate). He has two legitimate strikeout pitches now, as his slider is being swung at and missed 19% of the time and he has a swing and miss rate of 15% on his cutter. Graveman is indeed becoming interesting. He now has 27 K’s in 31 innings with a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 53%/15%/32%. However, his 5.74 actual ERA is almost two full runs higher than his xERA. The market sees actual ERA’s and as a result, we get an inflated price on Graveman.
Matt Andriese has made one start this year and it resulted in an ERA of 1.29. Andriese goes from a +112 underdog in Anaheim against Nick Tropeano to a -133 to -140 fav after one start. Incidentally, Oakland has a better record than the Halos and the A’s are also 10-10 on the road. Last year, Andriese went 3-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 66 innings for the Rays. He made four trips between AAA/MLB, and while progress was made, shuttle rides will likely continue. His weak first-pitch strike rate (48%) is unconvinced of his control growth, while his xERA history doesn't lend itself to much upside. In that lone start against the Angels, Andriese walked three batters and struck out three batters. As the favorite in this range, Andriese is anything but interesting. Play the value.
Cincinnati (5 innings) +157
The Phillies have been a tremendous dog this season. With a projected win total of just 64 games, Philadelphia is way ahead of schedule with a 21-15 record. There are many things to like about the Phillies but they are still not ready to be priced in this range. Aaron Nola showed promise as a rookie, posting a 3.59 ERA in 78 innings, and he has been even better in 2016 with a 3.13 ERA to go along with a great BB/K split of 8/49 in 46 frames. Nola’s control, which is fully backed by his ball%, has been superb. Despite having a four-seam fastball that averages a pedestrian 89.9 mph, he gets plenty of swings and misses thanks largely to a tremendous curve (21% swing and miss). His overall swing and miss rate of 10% hints that his strikeouts will come down once MLB hitters adjust. Left-handed batters gave Nola fits in 2015, but he has stymied them so far this year, though a fortunate hit % has helped. Make no mistake, this kid is good but he’s been whacked twice this year in seven starts, once by San Diego and once by Washington. There are going to be more rough outings and let’s not dismiss that the Phillies were projected to lose 100 games or thereabouts. We reiterate that teams like Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Minnesota for instance, are a huge risk when spotting significant prices no matter who is on the hill.
The Reds are not playable in a full game, thus the reason for the 5-inning wager. Cincinnati’s pen has set a major league record for consecutive games in which the bullpen has allowed runs. Nobody in the pen has shown the ability to get the ball over the plate and as a result of that, its pen has been an absolute dumpster fire, a dumpster fire full of radioactive tires kind of fire. Let’s leave them out of it and focus on Tim Adleman. Adleman has made just two starts. He was previewed in our call-up section back on May 1 but has made two starts since then with positive results. Adleman has 10 K’s in 11 innings with a strong 13% swing and miss rate to support it. He also has five walks but we’re not concerned because of his strong 67% first-pitch strike rate. He’s often ahead in the count and then tries to be too fine to put batters away, which is a correctable trait. His control is actually very good. Adleman brings his 2.45 ERA into this game and while it is completely unreasonable to expect him to maintain it, he’s showing great promise and is very playable in a shortened wager.
Atlanta (5 innings) +170
Despite their awful record (8-26), the Braves are actually a respectable 6-9 on the road and we’re not asking them to win here anyway. We’re asking them to have a lead after five innings and it’s very possible that occurs against Dillon Gee. Gee has worked strictly out of the pen this year in seven appearances covering 21 innings. A lot of that work has come in the role of mop-up while one outing (5.1 innings) was in long relief in New York against the Yanks when Chris Young was knocked out in the third frame. Gee worked two innings against Washington when the Royals were down 11 runs. He worked 4 innings against Baltimore when the Royals were down 8-2. He worked two innings in Seattle when K.C. was down 4-0. There is a big difference between coming in and eating up outs with your team down a bunch of runs than there is to starting a game. Gee has not started a game since last season when he was a New York Met. He went 0-3 last season as a starter for the Mets with a 5.90 ERA in 40 innings. In the course of three months, he went from underwhelming to unemployed. Not many can survive today's game with such a low strikeout rate and he picked the wrong year to have bad hit % fortunes. Now Gee is one of the biggest favorites on the board today. Gee (whiz), that ain’t right man.
Mike Foltynewicz may indeed go out there and get whacked for five runs in the first couple of innings but he is also capable of going out there and thriving. Foltynewicz has the goods to project as a solid #2-3 starter. His strikeout rate has increased and he’s starting to pitch more aggressively. Foltynewicz has among the strongest arms in the organization with a fastball that reaches triple-digits. He generally sits in the mid-90s mph, but can rear back when he wants to. When he’s on, he’s very difficult to hit. He has an ideal frame to become a long-lasting power pitcher and he uses his height well. Foltynewicz complements his fastball with a slider and curve that both show potential for being above average. Consistency is the key, as he struggles to throw strikes at times but we’re seeing great improvements in that area as well, as he has walked just two batters in 11 frames while striking out 12. He loses his fastball command when he overthrows and his pitches can be flat as a result. The former first-round pick in 2010 needs significant polish to realize his potential, but he has the ingredients, pitch mix, and tenacity to be a good one. Foltynewicz’s raw stuff has yet to translate but he’s getting there. Playing for the Braves, Foltynewicz will be offered big prices but he could bring big profits in shortened wagers and we’ll gladly put that to the test here against Dillon Gee.
Miami +165 over WASHINGTON
This is Game 2 of the scheduled day/night double-header. What we like is that lineups are available to view in the first game and very often the team that wins Game 1 will sit a few regulars in Game 2. Of course the Nats are not guaranteed to win Game 1 but they’re close to a 2½-1 favorite with Max Scherzer on the hill. Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy and catcher Wilson Ramos are all penciled in for the opener. If all those play in Game 2, we can still live with it because the Fish are a live dog with a 10-6 road record and Tanner Roark does not deserve to be favored in this range.
Despite owning a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 2014, Roark was squeezed out of his team’s starting rotation in 2015. He spent the year working mostly out of the bullpen, making 12 starts in 40 appearances. This year, Roark comes in with a 2.03 ERA after seven starts and quite frankly, we’re not sure how he’s doing it. Roark has a BB/K split of 17/41 after 44 innings but a low 54% first-pitch strike rate suggests he will not maintain that type of control and his 8% swing and miss rate says he won’t maintain that high K-rate either. Strikeouts have never been Roark’s strong suit, and his K-rate from last year sank to a new low. Other than a strong groundball lean, there is nothing in Roark’s skill set that suggests he should be dominating in the way that he has been. Regardless of the major differences between Roark’s ERA and WHIP from 2014 to 2015, he was principally the same pitcher. Don’t let his ERA cloud the view. This is an average-ish starter who has rode some good fortune to a strong start and now he’s overvalued because of it.
The Marlins acquired Kendry Flores from the Giants in December 2014. Flores is just 24-years-old and has a very intriguing arm with a multitude of pitches at his disposal. Though he isn’t blessed with plus velocity, he can rear back and touch the 93-94 mph range on occasion. None of his pitches are straight and he’s proven difficult to make hard contact against. His low oppBA of .238 in 16 starts in the difficult Pacific Coast League (10 last year, six this year) gives him plenty of upside. His fastball is his best pitch, but he changes speeds well and can change the velocity and trajectory of his curve. Flores also throws an occasional cutter to keep hitters off guard. He’s adept at hitting his spots with any of his offerings. Flores has excellent pitching aptitude and enough command to flourish at the back-end of the rotation and while call-ups are almost always a risky wager, they also bring the unknown factor into the marketplace, which often results in plenty of overlays. Some thrive in their season debut and this is one that has that potential.
L.A. Angels +150 over SEATTLE
The Angels rallied from a late 6-2 deficit last night with three in the eighth and two in the ninth to steal a victory and perhaps that will give them some much-needed momentum coming into this one. The Angels have a solid hitting lineup that has struck out the fewest times in the majors, which means they are always putting the ball in play. That’s precisely the type of dog we want to back, especially at prices like this.Jhoulys Chacin makes his Angels and American League debut here after coming over from Atlanta. Chacin only pitched against one AL opponent with the Braves this season (Boston) and allowed two runs on six hits with a 4/2 K:BB ratio in five innings. We can live with that for sure, as the Red Sox are scoring about a dozen runs every night. Before leaving Atlanta, Chacin had posted close to career-highs in swing and miss rate (11%), K’s/9 (9.1), BB/9 (2.7) and first-pitch strikes (63%). We can live with that too. The Mariners have a .668 OPS in home games, which ranks 23rd in MLB, and Chacin has posted a respectable 3.41 ERA in 327 innings pitched on the road in his career.
Then there’s Hisashi Iwakuma, a guy we would absolutely not trust in this price range. In fact, we’re putting Iwakuma very high on our fade list and here’s why. The frequent flier miles piled up for Hisashi Iwakuma this past off-season. After the free agent signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers, a failed physical sent him back to Seattle on a one-year deal (with two options). That’s rather interesting, no? The Mariners didn’t want him but the Dodgers did before they didn’t. The Dodgers clearly saw something they didn’t like and we’re not going to ignore that. If it were a correctable problem or short term, Los Angeles would have surely stuck with it but they didn’t. Iwakuma is 35-years-old and his average fastball velocity is 87 MPH. He is very prone to giving up jacks and the Angels are a team that is very capable of going deep. Iwakuma comes in with a 4.19/4.02 ERA/xERA split but the bigger issue is that the Dodgers sent him right back from where he came from. We have to wonder why. A shoulder injury cost Iwakuma most of the first half of 2015. This year he has three pure quality starts in seven tries. The Dodgers brass says things are going to get worse and we’re listening. Big overlay here.
OC Dooley
Rockies +115
Last night Colorado finally snapped a nasty 0-11 series skid taking advantage of New York's struggling offense which in the past eight games (all on the road) has averaged just 2.78 runs per contest. Odds are the Mets offensive struggles will continue this evening considering that Colorado's Eddie Butler is coming off his best starting assignment in THREE full years. Most reading this analysis are aware that the Rockies play inside a spacious ballpark and are at the very best when finding holes in opposing defenses. In the past two years after consecutive games where the offense has had 5+ extra-base hits each time Colorado has posted an excellent 9-2 record in the ensuing contest. Due to an injury to Steven Matz the Mets have been forced to go with a "reserve" tonight who is making just his third start