Frank Sawyer
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Over 11
Take Over the Total in the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies listing both starting pitchers Adam Wainwright and Kyle Freehand. Colorado (32-18) won the opening game of this series by a 10-0 score. The Rockies have then seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in Colorado’s last 5 games after a win. St. Louis (23-22) has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring two runs or less in their least game. The Over is also 19-7-1 in the Cardinals’ last 27 road games with Wainwright on the mound. Take the Over while listing both starting pitchers.
Wunderdog
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox
Pick: Under 9 Game 1
Chicago is a big park, which great for pitchers, and Detroit plays its sixth straight road game. The offense has looked road weary, scoring 18 runs the last six games. Detroit is on a 5-2-1 run UNDER the total on the road. They face a Chicago White Sox offense that is #15 in runs scored, #23 in on-base percentage, and #22 in slugging. The White Sox have veteran lefty Derek Holland (2.47 ERA) going, holding batters to a .206 average over three home starts. Holland also has a 2.73 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers. Play the first game of today’s doubleheader to finish UNDER.
Bruce Marshall
Rays at Twins
Pick: Rays
Monday's quality start vs. the Angels continued Jake Odorizzi's strong run of efforts to open the campaign. Into today at Target Field, Odorizzi sports a solid 3.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 7.7 K/9, and the Rays continue to impress after last night's 5-2 series-opening win. Advantage Odorizzi and Tampa Bay vs. relatively untested Minnesota starter Adalberto Mejia.
Power Sports
New York at Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
The Pirates were embarrassed last night, losing 8-1 to the Mets, but should turn the tables tonight w/ Gerrit Cole on the bump. Cole might be an unfortunate 2-5 overall in his 10 starts (4-6 TSR), but at PNC Park he's been both filthy and successful. He has a 3-1 team start record at home due in no small part to a 1.67 ERA and 0.778 WHIP. Prior to his last start (in Atlanta), Cole had gone seven consecutive outings w/ allowing 2 ER or fewer.
The Mets are actually pretty "amazing" when it comes to scoring runs on the road. They average 6.1 per game, most in all of MLB. So them scoring eight last night was not out of the ordinary. But against Cole tonight, I don't see it happening. Also, given the offensive production we've seen so far in road games, how disappointing is it that the Mets' overall record is just 20-26 overall and 9-11 on the road? They also ALLOW 6.4 rpg on the road and a bullpen which sports a 7.10 ERA and 1.71 WHIP outside of Citi Field has played a major role in that.
While the Under is 9-1 in Cole's 10 starts, the Over is a perfect 6 for 6 when the Mets' Zach Wheeler pitches. Thus, something will have to give today for totals players. Wheeler has allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts, but he also walked five batters his last time out, a troubling sign. I'll go with the home team in this battle of 2017 disappointments.
Will Rogers
Atlanta at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The set-up: The Giants were expected to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West in 2017 but opened the season 12-24! They looked to be coming out of their slump by winning eight of 10 from May 10 through May 22 but after Friday's 2-0 loss at home to the Braves, have lost four in a row while scoring a puny six runs! The Giants are back to 10 games under .500 at 20-30 and continue a three-game home series with the Braves tonight. Atlanta has now won 10 of its last 15 games and at 21-25, is actually in second place in the NL East. However, they are 7 1/2 games back of the first-place Nats but also find themselves closer to the last-place Phillies, who trail the Braves by five games.
The pitching matchup: Mike Foltynewicz (3-4 & 3.86 ERA) will get the nod for Atlanta and Ty Blach (2-2 & 4.10 ERA) for San Francisco. Foltynewicz won his third straight start on Monday, allowing two runs (one earned) on eight hits over five innings in a 5-2 victory over Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old has a 2.65 ERA in those three wins, which is quite an improvement over his first five starst of 2017 in whiuich he was 0-4 with a a 4.23 ERA (Braves were 0-5). That said, he's 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two career starts versus San Francisco. Blach will be making his seventh start of the season in place of ace Madison Bumgarner, who is out indefinitely with a left shoulder sprain. The 26-year-old Blach posted his second straight victory on Monday, holding the Chicago Cubs to three ERs over seven-plus innings. “I had the same mindset I took into starts last year,” Blach told reporters. “Be aggressive, dictate the game and let guys make plays on the ground.” This marks his first career start against Atlanta.
The pick: Foltynewicz comes in off three solid outings but the Braves have lost nine of their last 14 games at AT&T Park. Blach should take the mound with confidence here, as he has pitched well in all four of his home starts this season, allowing just five ERs on 17 hits over 26 innings (1.73 ERA). Factoring in Blach's three relief 2017 outings at home and his 1.59 home ERA is the fifth-best in baseball this season among pitchers who have made at least four home starts.
Big Al
Texas vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto
The last time we saw Yu Darvish facing the Toronto Blue Jays was in game two of the 2016 ALDS last October. Darvish was disappointing in that one as he took the loss while allowing five earned runs on five hits in five innings, including four home runs. This afternoon he'll try again against the Jays and RHP Marco Estrada. Estrada matched a career high by striking out a dozen batters in his last outing vs. the Orioles last Sunday. Estrada completely baffled a very potent Baltimore lineup, mixing up his pitches well and using his deceptive change-up to keep Jones, Machado, Davis, and Trumbo off-balance through 7 2/3 innings. Estrada has a career 2.63 ERA through in his four career starts vs. Texas covering 24 innings. With their win on Friday night, the Blue Jays are now 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Rangers. And the Rangers are now 5-17 in their last 22 games vs. teams from the American League East.
SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle +146 over BOSTON
The Red Sox recalled the 26-year-old Brian Johnson to make a spot start last week after placing Eduaro Rodriguez on the paternity list but that start never happened. Johnson was a first-round pick of Boston in 2012 and has made two big league appearances, a start in 2015 and a start in mid-April of this year in Toronto. Johnson has overcome a variety of maladies throughout his career, including an elbow injury as well as anxiety in 2016. He has a big body and the pitch mix to succeed but none of his offerings are considered plus—or even above average. He sequences his pitches well and changes speeds with ease. Johnson induces groundballs with his 87-91 mph sinker that he locates low in the zone. At one point, his curveball was his best offering, though that has regressed in recent seasons. The lack of velocity (average of 88 MPH) and no knockout offering limits his upside and while he’s had success in the minors, his two MLB starts have been disastrous (7.71 ERA, 5.96 xERA, 1.86 WHIP) which is a mental hurdle he’ll have to overcome too. As the chalk, we’re not interested in the least.
Seattle will also send a newcomer to the mound here. A fresh arm and face has to be a welcome site for every player in that M’s dugout. After suffering a strained calf during spring training and then shoulder inflammation, Rob Whalen had just gotten started in Triple-A when he got called up to help a depleted Seattle bullpen (On May 7) but was never used and subsequently sent back down. He’s now been called up again and he might be here to stay. The 6'2", 220-pound right-hander had a great season for the Braves in 2016, climbing three levels to the majors where he started five games and put up credible numbers. Whalen throws everything: a fastball, slider, curve and change-up. He does struggle to control his two-seam fastball that sits in the low-90 mph range. His slider is his most reliable secondary pitch and is now a solid offering. With his variety of pitches, decent control, and good strikeout numbers, Whalen has the potential to become a reliable #2, 3 or 4 starter at this level for years to come. In six minor league seasons, Whalen’s ERA was 2.42 with a 1.12 WHIP in 364 innings. He has had proper seasoning and in those aforementioned five starts at this level in 2016, he threw 25 innings and struck out 25 batters. Whalen might get blown up, as that possibility is always there with young and inexperienced starters but he has better stuff and more upside/potential than his counterpart and that counterpart cannot be favored in this range.
San Diego +210 over WASHINGTON
Clayton Richard is putting up some very respectable numbers. He has a BB/K split of 18/45 in 63 innings. Over his last five starts, Richard’s BB/K split was 8/25 in 32 innings so that’s trending the right way. His groundball rate is elite at 58%. Richard has battled his way back from 2013 left shoulder surgery and 2014 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The 33-year-old has emerged from those setbacks with a new throwing motion—a lower arm slot that is essentially side-arm—that has made his sinker even more effective. Richard’s extreme groundball % and those aforementioned seeds for potential control and K-rate gains make him very worthy at prices like this.
Stephen Strasburg is Stephen Strasburg, a pitcher that mows em down with the best of them with all the skills to back it up. However, from time to time, Strasburg blows up. He posted a 7.00 ERA or more in five of his last seven starts last year and fatigue has been partly blamed, which brings us to this start. It’s only May but Nats manager, Dusty Baker has been known to stay with his starters too long. Strasburg is coming off a game in which he threw 118 pitches. He did not throw that many pitches in a game all of last year. Four starts ago, Strasburg threw 119 pitches in a game against the Phillies. His next game out after the 119 pitches, he was tagged for five runs in 100 pitches over six innings. Over his last four starts leading into this one, Strasburg has thrown 119, 100, 108 and 118 pitches respectively. It’s only an arm Dusty! Furthermore, the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in MLB. Of course the Nats can win here but what we know for sure is that there is value on the Padres because Richard has been solid and Dusty Baker has put Strasburg in a position to fail. Don’t be surprised if the Padres get to him and/or pull out a win here.
Atlanta +119 over SAN FRANCISCO
Mike Foltynewicz comes in with a 3.86 ERA after nine starts with five pure quality starts. He has a BB/K split of 14/37 in 47 innings with a swing and miss rate of 10%. His skills have been trending the right way for three years now. Some guys take longer to bloom than others and now Foltynewicz is on the verge of a breakout. He throws 96 MPH heat, he misses bats and he comes into this start with a 3.79 xERA, which is even better than it looks because as it turns out, Atlanta’s new home, Sun Trust Park is a hitter’s paradise. We’re just giving the skinny on Foltynewicz for information purposes. In reality, we couldn’t care less which pitcher the Braves send out there today because this bet is a fade against Ty Blach.
For years, experts talked about won/loss records until it was proven that it meant nothing. They then turned to ERA to get a real sense of a pitcher’s worth but that, too, doesn’t tell the story. Ty Blach is living proof that ERA’s are misleading and it’s something we’ll continue to try and exploit. That sets up this fade.
Ty Blach is 1-1 at home with a 1.59 ERA after 28.1 innings of which was made up of three relief appearances and four starts. In his last three starts in which Blach went seven full innings in each, he has an ERA of 2.57. On paper, it’s pretty but under the hood it doesn’t get much uglier so things are going to blow up on this stiff big time. Blach has decent control and a strong groundball rate of 50% but that’s not enough. However, he also has the worst K-rate in MLB among qualified starters with 14 K’s in 42 innings. His early MLB K-rate and 4% swing and miss rate are highly discouraging and his minor league numbers don't offer much hope, either. Even in his 11.2 innings of relief work in the majors, his K-rate has only been 2.3 per nine. Blach is at the mercy of batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Of the 30 starters today, 20 of them have a BABIP between .265 and .330. Ty Blach’s BABIP is a ridiculous and unsustainable .152. He’s been helped out by extreme luck and his pitcher-friendly park. What his surface stats do not reveal is that on the road, this hittable pitcher has an ERA of 9.45 after giving up 21 hits and 16 earned runs in 13.1 innings of work. The Braves superior pen works in our favor too.
CHIP CHIRIMBES
Detroit vs. Chicago
Play: Detroit -135
These two will be trying to play a double-header Saturday so be aware of which pitching match-up you are 'playing.' There is something really strange about this match-up as Buck Farmer (2016: 0-1, 4.60 ERA) will make his first start of the season. The concern here is that Farmer is the favorite on the road when he has yet to big a big league game and is 0-5 with a 9.17 ERA and yet he favored. Something just does not seem right.
Brandon Lee
Mets vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8½
I think we are getting a great number here on the total to take the UNDER, as this has all the makings of a pitchers' duel. New York is sending out Zack Wheeler, who is rounding into form and comes in with a 2.75 ERA in 3 road starts and a 2.12 ERA in his last 3 outings overall. Pittsburgh will send out their ace Gerrit Cole, who despite a bad outing last time out, has really thrown the ball well this season. That poor start came on the road and Cole has posted a sensational 1.67 ERA and 0.778 WHIP in 4 home starts this season. Mets won the series opener 8-1 yesterday and the UNDER is a perfect 7-0 this season after a game where the Pirates allowed 8 or more runs and 9-1 in Cole's last 10 starts with a total of 8.5 to 7.
Jimmy Boyd
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -108
Simply too good of a price to not back the red-hot Rockies at home. Colorado took the series opener last night 10-0 and are now 9-3 over their last 12, improving their NL-best record to 32-18. No reason that the Rockies aren't a bigger favorite here against the Cardinals. St. Louis is a quality team, but are in a funk right now, going just 2-7 over their last 9. They are also facing a left-handed starter in Colorado's Kyle Freeland. Cardinals are scoring just 3.8 runs/game and hitting .209 as a team against left-handed starters this season.
St. Louis will send out veteran Adam Wainwright, who has thrown well in his last two starts against the Cubs and Giants at home. However, Wainwright is 1-2 with an ugly 7.11 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in 4 road starts and still has a 4.81 ERA and 1.685 WHIP in 9 starts overall this season. Rockies are 11-3 in their last 14 against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 13-4 on the season as a favorite of -150 or less and 8-1 in their last 9 after a game where they allowed 1 run or less.
JOHN MARTIN
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -102
The Toronto Blue Jays now have two of their top hitters back in the lineup. Both Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki returned yesterday, and this could now be a scary team going forward. They've now won four straight after beating the Rangers 7-6 last night. Now Marco Estrada gets the ball Saturday. Estrada has gone 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts with 70 K's in 62 2/3 innings. He is 1-0 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four home starts as well. Estrada has owned the Rangers, going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in six starts. The Rangers are 4-17 in their last 21 vs. American League East. The Blue Jays are 23-9 in the last 32 meetings, and 5-0 in the last five home meetings. The Rangers are 1-5 in Yu Darvish's last six starts against Toronto.
DENNIS MACKLIN
New York at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -127
The Mets are 4-8 L12, riddled with injuries and tonight face a home field specialist in Gerrit Cole. The Buc righty has pitched very well (3.26) and deserves much better than his current 2-5 badge having kept Pittsburgh in most of his starts without getting much help. Cole rocks a 1.67 ERA in his four home starts and if he can get by Conforto and Daniel Murphy, should have clear sailing the rest of the way through the lineup.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Mariners vs. Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -1½
The Boston Red Sox have been amazing during their four game winning streak. The Sox are averaging nearly 10 runs per game during their streak, and each win has come by four runs or more. Meanwhile, the Mariners have lost five of their last six road games. The Mariners pitching staff has been one of the worst in the majors. They have a 4.83 ERA, which is the second worst in Major League Baseball. I think Boston’s lineup will wreak havoc on Saturday in a blowout win. The Red Sox will light up today! I have the Red Sox winning 6-3.
WESLEY SCOTT
Tampa Bay at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -101
The Tampa Bay Rays (26-25, 10-12 Away) look for two in a row against the Minnesota Twins (25-19 Overall, 11-14 Home) in game two of this four game weekend set.
Tampa was happy to get a win yesterday, 5-2. Jake Odorozzi (3-2, 3.14 ERA) gets the ball today against the Twins to keep the streak going.
In his last start he went six innings, giving up five hits, allowing two runs and one home run in a 3-2 loss against the Angels. Odorozzi is 0-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three starts against the Twins.
Minnesota counters with rookie left hand pitcher Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 4.96 ERA). Mejia was recalled from Triple A Rochester to get the start today for the Twins.
In his last MLB start May 21st, Mejia pitched seven innings, allowing five hits, three earned runs, and two home runs in a 8-4 win against the Royals.
Brad Wilton
Saturday's comp play release will be for Zack Wheeler and Gerrit Cole to dominate the mound in Pittsburgh tonight as the Mets and the Pirates hold Under the posted price.
The Mets took the opener 8-1 last night in a game that did land Over the total, but with the Pirates paltry one run, look for their offense to struggle again against Wheeler who has been very tough lately.
Over his last 4 starts, Wheeler has allowed just 5 runs to cross the plate, and his ERA stands right around 2 for those starts.
Gerrit Cole has had his struggles this season, but his ERA at home in 4 starts this year is under 2, so look for him to be tough on the New York bats.
Each of Cole's last 8 starts have played Under the total, so looking for a pitcher's duel tonight between Cole and Wheeler is not out of the realm of possibility.
Mets and Pirates hold Under on Saturday night.
4* N.Y. METS-PITTSBURGH UNDER