Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Sunday, August 14th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
DAVE COKIN
TIGERS VS. RANGERS
PLAY: TIGERS F5
Michael Fulmer has been a revelation for the Tigers. He’s the leader in the clubhouse for AL Rookie of the Year, and hasn’t shown any sign of wearing down even though the innings continue to pile up. I’m most impressed with Fulmer’s consistency. One normally anticipates some erratic showings from first-year big league pitchers, but Fulmer has been steady as a rock.
The same cannot be said for Texas righty AJ Griffin. He’s gottten by, but Griffin has back of the rotation at best numbers and he is not in what could be called great current form. No prob trying to beat Griffin here.
The one holdup on this game was awaiting the result of the Saturday game between the Tigers and Rangers. Detroit squandered loads of opportunities to bust the game wide open. But the bottom line is that the Tigers did get the win, and that’s really important as far as my willingness to play this game goes.
The Tigers were on a nasty losing streak, and I would not be playing this game has they suffered yet another defeat. But off a win, it’s a different story for the Bengas. They generally follow a win with another win, as evidenced by a robust .613 win rate for the season when playing off a victory.
I’m on the Tigers here, and my preference is F5 with the emphasis on Fulmer
Bruce Marshall
Pittsburgh +138
The Bucs are undefeated in the five starts made by rookie Chad Kuhl, whose first start was a 4-3 win over the Dodgers back on June 26. Kuhl was sharp again last Tuesday vs. the Padres, allowing just 2 runs thru 6 IP in another Pittsburgh win. Meanwhile, the Dodgers bring Brett Anderson off of the DL to make his first start of the season after back surgery. Even after Saturday's 8-4 loss, the Pirates have won 14 of the last 19 vs. the Blue.
Stephen Nover
Arizona +136
Man I hate the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. They are the biggest underachievers in the National League if not all of baseball.
But if there is one spot to play the Diamondbacks this is it where they are taking a nice price with Zack Greinke.
I understand the Red Sox are the superior team, home and have their own new ace going, Rick Porcello.
Here, though, is what we have going with Greinke:
Greinke has won 83 percent of his starts the past two years going 30-6. He has a 2.14 road ERA this season. The Diamondbacks aren't so miserable away from Chase Field. They are .500 on the road and have won each of Greinke's past eight road starts.
Greinke has been an underdog four times this season. Arizona has won on each occasion.
Greinke has gotten better this year after a slow start. He has a 2.47 ERA in his last 10 starts. This is his second start since coming off the DL after being sidelined with an oblique strain. He gave the Diamondbacks a quality start and an underdog victory in his last start beating the Mets this past Tuesday. That was the right-hander's ninth consecutive win. Afterward, Greinke said everything was fine and he felt 100 percent.
Boston has lost 11 of the past 14 times going against a righty. The Red Sox also are 2-7 in their last nine home games versus a righty.
Greinke has pitched at Fenway Park holding a 1.17 ERA there in two appearances. He owns a 2.83 career ERA versus Boston in seven appearances, including six starts.
Porcello is having a magnificent season. He's not Greinke, though. Porcello has a 3.40 ERA on the season and a 5.11 career ERA in two starts against Arizona with the last coming two years ago. Porcello has a 4.11 career interleague ERA in 31 appearances, including 29 starts. He has made three straight strong starts. I'm not sold he can continue to exceed his past norms by coming through with a fourth consecutive outstanding game.
Boston is the No. 1 offensive team. Yet, the Red Sox have hit just 12 more homers than the Diamondbacks, who aren't lacking for offensive stars with Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura and Yasmany Tomas. Lamb and Tomas are underrated sluggers. They've combined for 45 homers this year.
The Diamondbacks do focus harder when Greinke is on the mound. They are trying to avoid a sweep. So there should be some pride on the line.
Boston has lost the past seven times when playing the final game of a three-game series. The Red Sox open an 11-game road trip following this matchup starting with a single game at Cleveland on Monday. That is followed by two key games against Baltimore.Those are much more important games for Boston than this one.
Marc Lawrence
Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½
Edges - Reds: Cody Reed 0-9 with 6.36 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in his team starts this season (amazing he’s still in the big leagues and not in the minors). Brewers: Wily Peralta 7.08 ERA with 1.84 WHIP home team starts this season; and 6.00 ERA with 1.69 WHIP last seven overall starts. With both pitchers in poor form and the Reds 5-1 OVER in their last six games, look for a well lit scoreboard here today. We recommend a 1* play in the OVER total in this game.
Bob Harvey
Tigers vs. Rangers
Play: Tigers +100
The Detroit Tigers look to keep their wild card hopes alive when they visit the Texas Rangers in the finale of a three-game series.
Detroit (62-54, 29-33 road) begins play 1.5 games behind Boston for the second wild card spot in the American League. A 2-0 victory on Saturday snapped a snapped the Tigers' five-game slide and also ended their six-game skid against the Rangers.
Texas (69-49, 36-19 home) is on cruise control at the moment leading the American League West by 6.5 games over Seattle and 7.5 over Houston.
Fulmer (9-3, 2.43 ERA) suffered his first loss since June on Monday despite allowing just two runs in seven innings at Seattle. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his 18 starts, including three in a row. Fulmer is 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 13 road outings.
Griffin (5-1, 4.38 ERA) is 2-0 over his last five starts despite a lofty 5.54 ERA in that stretch. He lasted just 2.2 innings at Detroit on May 7, leaving him with an 8.76 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers.
The UNDER is 10-2-2 in the Rangers past 14 outings and 11-4-1 to the low side in the Tigers last 16 road games.
Detroit is 14-2 in Fulmer’s past 16 starts.
SPORTS WAGERS
Liverpool +125 over ARSENAL
There have been many managerial changes throughout the summer and some will work out while others will make little to no impact. One thing we know for sure is that the mid-season change Liverpool made has worked out and should continue to do so. Liverpool decided to get their man before the chaos in the summer and not only did they do that, but they allowed Jurgen Klopp a few months to implement his system amongst the core and shed anyone that he deemed unfit for his squad, trimming the roster from the previous regime. Liverpool's season was completely stuck in mediocrity, but the results that came through down the stretch were much more promising. Liverpool would advance to the Europa League finals, and finish runners-up. Along their tournament journey, they defeated Manchester United, they survived Klopp's old squad, Bundesliga powerhouse Borussia Dortmund, and absolutely man-handled Villarreal in the semi-finals. Their EPL results also took a turn for the better in the last 13 games, reeling off a 7-2-4 record in the final third.
After a long evaluation period, Klopp has made significant changes to his roster to make it his own. Including loans and expired contracts, Liverpool shed 18 names from their system, highlighted by veterans Joe Allen and the often exposed center back Martin Skrtel. Coming into the squad are six bodies that should contribute on various levels, however two moves standout the most. Liverpool purchased 24 year old former Southampton forward Sadio Mane for 30 million pounds to bolster their attack. This move was overshadowed by the many big money signings that took place between the Manchesters, but the Mane move may prove to be the most valuable. Mane adds intense pace, and has the ability to run at defenders, breaking open space for him and others. Liverpool also added versatile Midfielder Georginio Wijnaldum to their mix, bolstering whatever spot he is placed in amongst the center of the field.
Arsenal finished 2nd in the EPL last season, 10 points back of the champions from Leicester City. Seeing a team like Leicester win in a season that had so many of the English big power clubs behind them in the final standings stung Arsenal more than anyone else. Arsenal has had a great squad that constantly falls short of their title aspirations and in a season that they finally beat Manchester City/United, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Chelsea, they are leap frogged by the ultimate Cinderella story from Leicester. Arsenal will compete for a title once again this season and they may very well accomplish their goal, however, they have been put in a very bad position to open up the season, and it seems that every couple of days, it gets worse. Arsenal will be playing without five or six regulars on Sunday (depending on their formation), which includes their defensive tandem of Per Mertesacker, and superstar Laurent Koscielny. Included in the doubtful list are forwards Olivier Giroud, Danny Welbeck, playmaking stud Mesut Ozil, Jack Wilshere, and defender Gabriel. Alexis Sanchez will be in the starting lineup, but he is just coming off of an ankle injury he suffered in the Copa tournament in July.
Surrounding Arsenal is a negative feeling following many attempts that have fallen short in acquiring new talent. Most notably was the Jamie Vardy saga a month ago, where he was reported to be waiting on the end of the Euro before he made it official. It wasn't a week following the Euro that Vardy announced he would stay with Leicester instead of joining the Gunners at the Emirates. Following the disappointment of last season's scenario, the lack of star talent added (when all rivals are improving their roster), and the injury riddled opening day lineup, Arsenal will be hard pressed to win here.
Liverpool will be without their best player Daniel Sturridge in this one, and may also be without James Milner, but they have other options to turn to and the one to keep an eye on will be the newly signed Mane. Mane has a tendency to attack from the wing into the middle with pace, and without three starting defenders in place for Arsenal, there will be opportunities opened up for the forward line all match. Jurgen Klopp has Liverpool trending in the right direction and they figure to be primed for the opening day upset at Arsenal.
Larry Ness
Detroit vs. Texas
Pick: Detroit
The 69-49 Texas Rangers own a 6 1/2-game lead in the AL West while the 62-54 Detroit Tigers sit just 1 1/2 games out of the AL’s second wild card spot. However, Detroit is not alone, as three teams are right behind the Tigers, separated by no more than two games. The Tigers’ 2-0 shutout win on Saturday snapped a five-game losing streak and puts Detroit in the position of taking the series in Sunday's rubber match. "Whenever you've had a string of losses like we had earlier in the season or we had these past five days, it definitely feels better to get the monkey off your back," Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said. Giving the win even more importance was the fact that the Tigers had also lost six in a row to the Rangers dating to last season.
Sunday’s pitching matchup features Detroit rookie Michael Fulmer (9-3, 2.43 ERA) and Texas’ A.J. Griffin (5-1, 4.38 ERA). Fulmer is making his 19th start of 2016 and what a huge bonus he has been, with Detroit going 15-3 in his starts, giving Fulmer MLB’s second-best moneyline mark at plus-$1369. Griffin is no slouch though, as this “under the radar” performer has seen Texas go 11-4 in his 2016 starts, for a plus-$901 moneyline mark (13th-best). Texas is MLB’s top moneyline team at plus-$2481 but the Tigers sre second-best, although Detroit is just over a $1000 behind Texas at plus-$1353 (quite a gap between No. 1 and No., 2.
However, current form puts me on Fulmer and the Tigers in this game. Fulmer has been a “Steady Eddie” all season, allowing three ERs or less in 15 of his 18 starts, including three in a row. He’s hardly been intimated away from either, going 7-3 with a 2.85 ERA in 13 road starts (Tigers are 10-3!). Meanwhile, Griffin owns a 5.54 ERA over his last five starts, including allowing five ERs on seven hits in 4.2 innings at Colorado on Tuesday. That marked the 10th straight start in which he failed to complete six innings. Included in that span is a 2.2-inning outing at Detroit on May 7, which left Griffin with an 8.76 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers.
Jim Feist
Pirates at Dodgers
Pick: Under
Dodger stadium is a huge park, tough on hitters. Pittsburgh is on a 6-2 run under the total, including 9-2 under on the road. Chad Kuhl goes for the Pirates with a 3.91 ERA, throwing well and walking few batters (9 in 25+ innings). The Under is 23-10 in the Dodgers last 33 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brett Anderson knows how to throw strikes, too, a lefty for LA. And the Under is 23-11 in the Dodgers last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Oskeim Sports
Houston at Toronto
Pick: Toronto
Houston right-hander Mike Fiers owns a disturbing 5.96 ERA in 51.1 innings of work on the road this season, together with a 1.75 HR/9 rate and a 7.3% K-BB%. The 31-year-old's strikeouts have plummeted (5.61 K/9 vs. 7.36 K/9) and his walks have increased (2.63 BB/9 vs. 1.68 BB/9) on foreign soil in 2016. Fiers' road woes are substantiated by a 5.53 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP, together with a 1.58 WHIP.
Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman toes the rubber with a 4.76 ERA on the year, but his 3.87 FIP, 3.43 xFIP and 3.60 SIERA suggest that his pedestrian ERA is grossly misleading. Stroman leads the Majors in ground ball percentage (60.3%) and owns a 3.86 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts. The talented hurler also owns a 3.87 FIP and 2.44 xFIP in the second half this season with a 27.1% strikeout rate (10.05 K/9) and a 3.9% walk rate (1.44 BB/9).
In his previous start against the Astros this season (8/1), Stroman yielded one run on 3 hits in seven innings (13/1 K/BB). From a technical standpoint, Toronto is a profitable 16-7 in its last 23 home games, 37-18 in its last 55 games versus right-handed starters, 38-14 in its last 52 home games versus teams with a losing road record and 15-7 in Stroman's last 22 home outings, including 9-4 versus .501 or greater opposition.
In contrast, the Astros are a money-burning 3-9 in their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record, 1-6 in their last seven games versus a right-handed starter and 3-7 in Fiers' last ten road starts. Houston is also 7-20 in its last 27 games on artificial turf and 1-4 in its last five affairs in Toronto. With Toronto standing at 21-6 versus foes with a win percentage between .510 and .540 over the last two seasons.
Scott Rickenbach
Pirates at Dodgers
Pick: Over 8.5
Brett Anderson gets the start for the Dodgers, his first MLB appearance of 2016 as he is returning from back surgery. Although he had a decent ERA last season it was a bit deceiving as he was hit quite hard. Even at home, in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, Anderson was hit at a .290 clip in his 16 starts. In an afternoon game Sunday against a solid Pirates lineup, Anderson is likely to struggle as he was not overly impressive in his rehab starts in the minors. So, with the Pirates "getting theirs" today, the question is whether or not the Dodgers will join the "hit parade" and that should certainly prove to be the case today. Chad Kuhl gets the start for Pittsburgh and the young right-hander has been a bit inconsistent. That doesn't bode well for him today because he's facing a Dodgers lineup that has produced at least 8 runs in 4 of their last 6 games. In fact, Los Angeles is averaging 11.6 hits per game in their last 7 games! The over is 5-1 in the Dodgers last 6 games. The over is 10-5 in LA's last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 23-14 in Pittsburgh's day games this season and 11-6 in the Pirates Sunday games. The Bucs are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their match-ups with left-handed starters this season!
Chase Diamond
Pirates at Dodgers
Play: Dodgers
This game features the 58-58 Pirates and the 65-51 Dodgers. First start of 2016 for Brett Anderson as he try's to comeback from injury. He has looked solid in his rehab starts allowing just 3 runs over 12 innings. The Dodgers need to win this series having won yesterday 8-4 I think they will carry over the momentum today and really put some runs up for their returning starter. Just 44% of the public backing the home Dodgers yet this line went from -135 to -150 we will follow the sharp money here.
Brandon Lee
Tigers vs. Rangers
Play: Tigers +100
This is simply too good of a price not to take a chance on the Tigers. Detroit will send out one of the big surprises of 2016 in rookie starter Michael Fulmer. The Tigers are 15-3 in his 18 starts this season, as he owns a sensational 2.43 ERA and 1.063 WHIP. He's still throwing the ball extremely well, as he comes in with a 2.53 ERA and 0.890 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Texas counters here with A.J. Griffin, who has a not so great 4.38 ERA in 15 starts and an even worse 5.62 ERA over his last 3 starts. Griffin also owns an ugly 7.27 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in 4 career starts against Detroit.
Jimmy Boyd
White Sox -123
Chicago is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Marlins on Sunday. The White Sox will send out their ace Chris Salem, who is 14-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 22 starts. Sale has been at his best on the road, where he's 7-3 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 13 outings. Chicago as a team is 10-1 in Sale's last 11 road starts with a money line of -100 to -125.
I like his chances of keeping the Marlins in check here, as Miami will be without star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. Not having Stanton available turns a decent Marlins offense into an average attack. Chicago has won each of the first two games of the series as a dog and Miami is just 1-11 in their last 12 when revenging two straight losses as a home favorite. They are also just 1-8 in their last 9 against teams from the AL Central.
Jesse Schule
Houston vs. Toronto
Play: Under 9
The Astros and the Jays have split the first two games of this series at Rogers Center, and both games went under the total. The Jays have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 13 overall, and six straight versus the Astros. Marcus Stroman will toe the slab for Toronto, and this looks like a good spot for the right-hander. Stroman (8-5, 4.76 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits over five innings in a loss at Kansas City his last time out. He's 3-1 in 11 starts at home in 2016, although his ERA isn't all that impressive in those games. He's owned the Astros though, holding Houston's lineup to a .194 batting average with 13 strikeouts in 36 at bats. Houston will hand the ball to Mike Fiers, who has had success against Toronto. Fiers (8-5, 4.46 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits, including three home runs over five innings in a win over the Twins his last time out. He's 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in three career appearances versus the Jays. Injuries to Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar won't help a Toronto team that ranks dead last in the majors batting .223 since the All Star break.