SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +109 over MILWAUKEE
Wily Peralta was recalled from Triple-A on August 9 to take Guerra's rotation spot while he is on the DL. Peralta’s start was a good one in terms of results on paper (6 IP 4H 2ER) but that was against the Braves and it was just one start. There’s a reason that Peralta spent June and July in the minors and that’s because he had three pure quality starts in 13 tries previously. His skills have steadily deteriorated since posting a solid 2014 season when he displayed skills growth. Both his 7.0 K’s/9 and solid control of 2014 have proven unsustainable. He showed a 5.00+ xERA and a low performance value score at the time of his demotion after 66 innings. Peralta has an ugly BB/K split of 30/48 in 72 innings to go along with a weak 56% first-pitch strike rate. He’s now the inferior pitcher playing for the inferior team spotting a tag.
It may surprise you to learn that since the All-Star break, the Reds have the second best record in the NL behind the Cubs. We have written about and backed Cody Reed numerous times already this season and we’re not about to let up now on this talented rookie. Reed and the Reds had a 4-0 lead in the ninth inning of that bizarre 5-4 loss to the Cardinals last week. He allowed four hits in six frames and didn’t allow a run. Reed is a pooch here because the Reds are 0-9 in his starts and he is personally 0-6 with a 6.36 ERA. Reed has wicked stuff without the results and while said results are ugly on paper, it’s all been fueled by some rotten luck. First off, Reed has 42 K’s in 46 innings, which comes with the full support of his 12% swing and miss rate. He averages 93 MPH on the gun and is often at 95 MPH. His overall groundball rate is in the upper echelon of starters at 57% and 59% over his past five starts. Reed’s low strand rate of 65% and high hr/f rate of 31% have combined to torpedo his surface stats. That hr/f rate is actually a sick number that is working against him. More bad luck can be seen in Reed’s BABIP, which is at .367. Typically, balls in play will find holes or drop in three out of every 10 at bats, which explains a hitter that bats .300 every year. Said hitter will usually put the ball in play and that’s why great hitters are constantly in the .300 range. Well, the same numbers apply to pitchers too. League average for BABIP is .297, which gives us an idea of just how unlucky Reed has been. This kid has nasty stuff and once his metrics normalize, the wins will follow. Cody Reed was supposed to get his first win last time out but at the very least, the six shutout innings he threw against the Cardinals was a confidence booster. What the market sees however, is a rookie with awful surface stats and that’s why he’s taking back a tag here. Armed with a strong groundball tilt and swing and miss stuff, Reed should post much better results the rest of the way. Despite the struggles so far, he looks like fine keeper league material so all fantasy players should grab him up and stash him right away. All sports bettors should wager on him here.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +180 over Tampa Bay
You can spot a small price if you like but we much prefer the better price when spotting an extra half run. Before he had spent much time in the majors, minor league analysts projected that Jake Odorizzi would mature into a #3 starter in his prime. Now 26 years old, and in the middle of his third full season, how is that forecast holding up and do his numbers hint at any additional upside? No. Jacks allowed continue to be an issue and probably will continue to be because of Odorizzi’s awful 34% groundball rate and 46% fly-ball rate. His consistently mediocre xERA and performance levels validate our assertion that he is more average than above. Odorizzi’s command sub-indicators have taken a step back this year and call into question the validity of his current command. Odorizzi’s 40 walks in 125 frames is average but his 55% first-pitch strike rate is not. Given his relative youth, Odorizzi still has time to improve his repertoire, but "as-is" the lack of a true swing-and-miss off-speed pitch and below average fastball velocity, limit his upside. That he and the Rays are evenly priced against the Yankees is incorrect.
The Yankees lineup yesterday did not have Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Mark Texeira or Brian McCann in it. They easily won 8-4 over these Rays and have now won four straight and eight of 11. New York is now just three games out of a Wild Card spot. The media wrote them off at the deadline, suggesting they waved the proverbial white flag but we suggested otherwise. When the Yanks had all that dead weight on their team, they were overpriced daily. Now that they rid themselves of it, they are underpriced almost daily. Funny, isn’t it, how the media influences the market? New York has an influx of young talent that includes Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge. The Yankees recalled the mammoth 24-year-old Judge from Triple-A and he was immediately inserted as the starting RF for the remainder of the season. Judge, a former first-round pick from 2013, fits the mold of the ideal RF with double-plus power and significant arm strength.He features an advanced approach at the plate and is willing to work counts to draw walks, but his long swing (due to his long arms) will always be conducive to a high number of strikeouts. He is also willing and able to use the entire field in his approach, which makes him a bit more difficult to pitch to, especially early in the count.
Luis Severino was recalled last week to start against the Red Sox and pitched brilliantly the first time through the order before the wheels fell off. He’s back to pitch again and he’s a tweak or two away from thriving because his stuff is nasty. Let’s not dismiss that Severino went 5-3 with a 2.89/3.03 ERA/xERA split in 62 innings last year. He was extremely impressive in his 11-start trial with surface stat numbers that have the backing of underlying numbers. Severino’s hard fastball/slider combination induced plenty of groundballs and whiffs, and allowed him to work deep into games. He’ll now take a step down in class from facing Boston but he’s priced like he’s facing the Red Sox. He’s not and now he and the rejuvenated Yanks are much underpriced.
CLEVELAND -1½ +100 over L.A. Angels
Four years ago we started writing about Jered Weavers inevitable decline when he was winning games and priced like an ace almost every time out. Well, Jered Weaver’s career is about to end and we don’t want to miss the opportunities to fade him at least one more time. So, when we can take back even a small tag when spotting 1½-runs against him, we are going to do so and that applies here. Furthermore, the Angels are mailing it in now with nine losses in a row. Yesterday, the Angels had more errors (2) than hits (1). Additionally, the Indians are swiping bases in boatloads on this disinterested visitor and they figure to have plenty of baserunners against Weaver here.
Despite a plethora of problems, Jered Weaver will keep his job in the last six weeks of the season because the Angels are paying him 18M this season to pitch. Management would prefer to see his arm fall off then sit him. Weaver’s problems include a 5.02/6.37 ERA/xERA and an 82 MPH fastball and a 21% groundball rate. Among qualified pitchers, Weaver has the lowest velocity in the majors, the highest fly-ball rate in the majors and the lowest groundball rate in the majors. When he does record and out, it’s all luck, just like a position player that comes in and mops up. He gets outs too. Obviously Weaver’s wealth of experience counts for something but at the end of the day, he is nothing more than a pitching machine that isn’t working well. Fade.
Pittsburgh +147 over LOS ANGELES
Chad Kuhl has made just five starts but he has yet to lose with two victories and three-no decisions. More importantly, Kuhl can pitch. Kuhl has been overshadowed by the more-ballyhooed Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow in the system, but he’s an effective, polished pitcher with plus control. Kuhl has been outstanding the past two seasons and thrives off of his plus sinker and improving slider. His 91-94 mph sinker induces a fair share of groundball outs and he can touch higher with his fastball at times. Kuhl has improved the consistency of his slider, but ultimately it is the sinker that gets him outs, whether it be on the ground or by the whiff. Kuhl is not a finished product but he absolutely offers up more value as the dog here than Brett Anderson does as the chalk.
Brett Anderson last pitched in the majors on October 4th of last season. Nobody thought he could make it through a season, so he goes and tosses more innings than the previous three years combined. An already-elite groundball rate reached stratospheric levels last season which kept his ERA in check, but his first-pitch strike rate did not believe in his good control and he continued to lack K’s. Anderson’s health history and second half decline make anything close to a repeat highly unlikely. Off nearly a year, Anderson is priced in the -160 range and that is somewhat ludicrous.
Sleepyj
49ers -3
The big key for me here is the fact that SF has 2 starting QB's playing in this game...He also has two others who are a toss up for the 3rd string spot...This could be a very competitive game just from the 49ers QB spot....Plenty of QB's in this one, but also a ton of other position players who have talent and speed..That's something Chip Kelly thrives on and I expect all the QB to be dialed in with the units they have worked with...SF has been one of the worst teams in the league, but that doesn't matter much in the preseason...Houston is getting a ton of hype and I'm not sold on this team overall...You have 3 Qb's on the Texans that have only proven they have sat and haven't produced much when on the field....Houston might look to air it out this game, but I'm not sold the starting players or even 2nd string guys will see much action...Texas have been a team in the past riddled with injuries..I think they take a walk through approach here on the road with the starting guys and 2nd string..We might see the depth lineup here for the Texans on both side a bit more..leaving us with good starting QB's to get us up over this -3 line...It looks like a golden opportunity to take the Texans +3...I'm not buying it tonight...SF by 5 or 6.
Bob Balfe
Brewers -125
The Reds are not a good enough baseball team to trust to go out and get a sweep on the road. The Brewers have been great against left handed pitching this year and at home should avoid getting swept by a bad baseball team.
Carmine Bianco
Orlando City SC at CHICAGO
Play: Orlando City SC +291
After a solid 3-1 win at home over New England two weeks ago they bounced badly in a 3-1 home loss to Seattle and will head to Chicago looking to bounce back with a win which will put them back into a playoff spot. Chicago's season has been a bust for the most part but they do play well at home. These sides have met 4 times in Chicago with Orlando winning the 2 MLS league games and Chicago winning 2 USO (US Open) matches. I'll lean on the away side at a price.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland -1.5 +114
The Angels losing streak has reached nine in a row and they haven't even been close the last three nights in Cleveland, surrendering 32 runs to the Indians in the process. Not sure anything gets better on Sunday with starter Jered Weaver, with a 5.19 ERA and .303 OBA as warning signs. Tribe starter Trevor Bauer pitched 6 1/3 shutout innings vs. the Nats last Tuesday.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Colorado Rockies, and I don't care about the listed pitchers in this one. I am playing the Phils because of the momentum they're riding, and the fact they're playing at home.
The Phillies have not only won three in a row, but they rank fourth in the league this month with 67 runs scored. They've also belted 15 home runs in August, tied for 11th in the bigs this month.
What's funny about those numbers is Colorado ranks No. 1 in baseball with an August batting average of .309. But the Rockies lost the last two nights by a combined final of 16-9, being outslugged by a Phillies team that is 6.5 games out of the N.L. Wild Card race.
The Rockies are mired in a 2-8 slide and will continue to struggle in this one.
4* PHILLIES
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 101-82 run with free picks: Pittsburgh (+135) at LOS ANGELES.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Pittsburgh Pirates conclude their series at Chavez Ravine, with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I'm taking the road underdog in this one. I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers in this one, as I like Chad Kuhl over Brett Anderson. As of 7 a.m. pacific, the line I see is Pittsburgh +135, and I want you gobbling that price up for my free play.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key here is the Pirates feeling confident and comfortable with Kuhl on the hill. Pittsburgh is 5-0 when Kuhl starts. After limiting the Padres to two runs over six innings on Tuesday, he'll be looking to make it 6-0 with this start in L.A. His confidence level will be there, as he debuted against the Dodgers, allowing three runs in five innings and picking up a win.
BOTTOM LINE is - As for Anderson, he has been out since March due to back surgery, and will be making his 2016 debut tonight. The left-hander topped out at 71 pitches in five innings in his last rehab start with Triple-A Oklahoma City, but this one will be much different and tougher to overcome.
5* PIRATES
Scott Delaney
Now that the Alex Rodriguez saga is over, the New York Yankees can get on with their lives. They've won four in a row, and they will ride this wave of momentum into today's American League East matinee against the Tampa Bay Rays. I'm playing the Bronx Bombers, as I think they win for a fifth straight game.
The Yankees are in fourth place in the East, 5.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays, and that's nothing with about six weeks left in the season. New York has a legit shot at making a run, and since it wins at home (34-24 this season) and has been winning of late, this could be a big weekend.
The Rays are in dead last, 19 games back of the Blue Jays. They've lost three straight, seven of 11 and 20 of their last 27 on the road. Tampa Bay, which has also lost 37 of 52 overall, ranks second to last in the bigs with a .238 batting average.
Yankees roll here.
1* YANKEES
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play will be to look for the Rays and Yankees to head Over the total one more time from the Bronx.
Both games this weekend between the division rivals have played Over the total, as the Over has now cashed in 4 straight this season, and 7 of the last 9 overall since the month of April.
Jake Odorizzi has been in a groove of late, and one of his starts was 6 plus frames of shutout ball at home against the Yankees in the last series Under back on July 29th. Let's see if he can duplicate that effort, as the Yankees have called up their youngsters; Sanchez, Judge, and Austin, and right now New York is swinging loose and free and scoring runs.
The Yankees will counter with Luis Severino who has had more bad turns on the bump than good, as evidenced by his 1-7 mark with a 6.42 ERA.
Hard to ignore that sky-high ERA.
Rays-Yankees close with an Over.
4* TAMPA BAY-N.Y. YANKEES OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the White Sox and Marlins to hold Under the total.
After a Friday Under between the teams, last night's game turned into a slugfest.
I say look for the series to end with an Under with Chris Sale and Tom Koehler throwing the pearl.
Sale looks to be back on the right track, as he has allowed 3 runs or less in each of his last 4 starts, with 3 of those 4 starts holding Under the total.
Koehler has been even better, allowing just 2 earned runs to score over his last 4 starts - a span of 27 innings worked.
2 of Koehler's last 3 starts have landed Under the total, and I expect him to keep up his nice work in this series ender on Sunday afternoon.
Sox and Fish hold Low with the pitching doing the dominating from Sale and Koehler.
2* WHITE SOX-MIAMI UNDER
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates +155
I like the value we are getting with the Pittsburgh Pirates as big road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers today. The Pirates continue to fight to try and get back in the wild card race as they've won five of their last eight games overall.
Chad Kuhl has held his own in limited action this season. Kuhl has gone 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in five starts this season. He has been at his best on the road, going 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two starts away from home.
Brett Anderson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here today. Anderson will be making his season debut while returning from arthroscopic back surgery. He'll surely be on a pitch count today and the Pirates will get into the Dodgers' bullpen early as a result.
The Pirates are 40-15 in their last 55 vs. NL West opponents. Pittsburgh is 6-0 in its last six vs. a left-handed starter. The Pirates are 5-0 in Kuhl's last five starts. The Dodgers are 1-4 in Anderson's last five starts.
Buster Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -115
The Brewers try to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds and we have one of our Buster Sports Systems backing us to say that the Brewers are going to avoid the sweep. The Reds send LH Cody Reed (0-6, 6.36 ERA) and he faces the Brewers RH Wily Peralta (4-8, 6.38 ERA) Reed has not been able to post a major league victory as of yet in 9 starts in his rookie season. He has been terrible on the road with a 5.40 ERA and a WHIP of 1.57. Peralta is back to the starting rotation after a couple of months in the minors and he looked good in his last home start allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings. The Brewers are 22-14 against LH starters and we believe they will get to Reed early and often. Backing our selection is the fact that the Brewers are 4-1 in Peralta's last 5 starts vs the Reds.
David Banks
Houston Texans @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: San Francisco 49ers-3
Last year’s AFC South champion Houston travels to San Francisco to take on the 49ers and new head coach Chip Kelly on Sunday night in Week 1 of the NFL’s preseason. The Texans finally have what they believe is a bonafide starting quarterback in Brock Osweiler, obtained from Denver in the offseason. It’s not clear how much Osweiler will play on Sunday and Texans head coach Bill O’Brien will surely want to take a long look at who will back up his starter.
The more interesting quarterback situation is in San Francisco where Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert are locked in a serious battle. Kelly has yet to name a starter for Sunday’s game and most likely will not do so until after the team’s practice on Friday. Either way, both will play and will have to prove that they can run Kelly’s up-tempo offense. Neither quarterback was impressive in the team’s recent practice at the 49ers’ former home, Kezar Stadium. The team played there from 1946 to 1970 prior to playing at Candlestick Park.
O’Brien hasn’t stated how long Osweiler will play, but he does want to give Tom Savage and Brandon Weeden significant opportunities to make their claim for the backup position. As far as other Texans starters, a few may miss Sunday’s game. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney has missed three straight practices and it appears as though he might not play. Starting center Nick Martin has also missed three practices this week and his status is also unclear.
Sunday’s game will give Kelly and the 49ers to work on an offense that was dead last in the NFL last season in many offensive statistical categories. Running backs Carlos Hyde, Shaun Draughn, and Kendall