Free Picks and Service Plays for Sunday, August 21st, 2016. These include free plays, paid plays and newsletter selections.
Bruce Marshall
Cardinals / Phillies Over 9
This looks as if it could be a slugfest on Sunday in Philadelphia as neither of these starting pitchers has been particularly effective lately. Certainly not Philly's Vince Velasquez, who has surrendered 14 runs (all earned) over 10 1/3 IP in his last two starts. The Phils have also lost in his last six starts. But Cards starter Mike Leake has not done much better lately, surrendering 26 runs (25 earned) over his last five starts covering 28 IP (8.04 ERA).
Stephen Nover
Milwaukee +145
The Brewers are in full rebuilt mode. This is something veteran Matt Garza is well aware of. Best case scenario for the Brewers and Garza is a deal is made before the opening of the 2017 season where a team trades for Garza and gives Milwaukee a decent prospect or two. The Brewers want to get under Garza's $12.5 million contract and he doesn't fit into their long range plans.
Garza must pitch well for that to take place. That is starting to happen. Garza hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of his past five starts posting a respectable 3.49 ERA during this span. He should pitch a solid six innings here against a normally tough Seattle lineup that is likely to be resting several regulars with an upcoming home series against the Yankees starting Monday.
The Brewers are facing rookie lefty Ariel Miranda, who is making just his third big league start and has a 5.79 ERA. It's my opinion Miranda isn't ready yet to be in a big league rotation. He's only in Seattle's rotation because James Paxton is out with an elbow injury.
The Brewers have won six of the last eight times they've gone against a southpaw starter.
Milwaukee has some underrated and intriguing offensive talent besides Ryan Braun and Chris Carter, who has hit the third-most homers in the National League. Jonathan Villar is batting .300 and has the second-most steals in the majors. Hernan Perez is batting .283 with double-digit homers and 23 steals. Centerfielder Keon Broxton has finally started showing something and rightfielder Domingo Santana just recently came off the DL bringing his 20-plus home run potential into the lineup.
Seattle is playing well and Milwaukee has dropped nine of its last 11 road games. So you really have to be careful picking spots with the Brewers especially away from Miller Park. But given the pitching matchup and price, I think a small Brewers investment is warranted.
Rob Vinciletti
Astros vs. Orioles
Play: Over 9½
Very simple 83% long term system that plays over is in effect today. Play the over for road favorites off a road dog win scoring 10+ runs, vs a team like Balty that is off a -140 or higher home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs. Houston has played over in 6 straight and 14 of 18 on the road if the total was 9 to 9.5. The Orioles have gone over in 6 of 7. Keuchel for Houston has a 5.85 road era and Gallardo a 5.18 era this year, Play this one over the total.
Scott Spreitzer
Toronto at Cleveland
Play: Toronto +155
Marcus Stroman is 9-5 and comes off a 9-2 win over Houston on Sunday while allowing just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings. Stroman pitched well enough to keep the Blue Jays in the game his previous two starts. Cleveland hitters have a combined .200 batting average against Stroman, who has a 2.45 ERA in August. Corey Kluber was the starter when the Indians lost 17-1 to Toronto on July 3 as he gave up five runs and seven hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Toronto batters have a combined .890 OPS against Kluber, who allowed five runs and eight hits in five innings versus the Blue Jays last year. The Blue Jays have won 21 of their last 31 against right-handed starters and are getting huge value with this line considering they're in first place in the AL East and have lost only two more games than the Indians.
Marc Lawrence
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -150
Edges - Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 3-0 with 0.94 ERA last three team starts n this series; and 3.00 ERA with 1.17 WHIP last three overall starts. Braves: Joel De La Cruz 1-5 six MLB career team starts. With Atlanta 12-27 versus southpaws this season, we recommend a 1* play on Washington
Bob Harvey
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 8½
The Texas Rangers continue their quest towards the American League Western Division title when they visit the Tampa Bay Rays in the rubber match of their three-game series.
The Rangers (73-50, 34-30 road) picked up outfielder Carlos Gomez who was placed on waivers by the Astros. Gomez will report to Triple-A Round Rock. The Rays (50-70, 28-35 home) have been riding the hot bat of Evan Longoria who has 14 RBIs in his last 10 contests. He belted his 28th home run in Saturday’s 8-2 win leaving just five big flies from his career high of 33.
Martin Perez (8-8, 4.09 ERA) goes to the mound for the Rangers who had their four-game winning streak snapped. Perez ended an eight-game winless streak last time out as he allowed two run over seven innings to beat Oakland.
Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85) has turned around his season during his last five starts, permitting eight runs over 32 innings while recording three victories in that span. He gave up one run and one hit last time out against San Diego and has posted a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly is 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 career games (five starts) versus the Rangers.
The Rangers are 7-1-2 to the UNDER in their last 10 road games and 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.
Scott Rickenbach
Cubs vs. Rockies
Play: Under 11½
I realize these are two potent lineups squaring off in the thin air of Denver. However, the pitching match-up is a key as to why I feel this game will stay under the big number. Jorge de la Rosa gets the start for the Rockies. He has compiled some sub-par numbers on the season but this is hiding the fact that he's enjoyed years of success pitching at Coors Field and also the fact that he's been in great form of late. Even though he allowed 4 earned runs in his most recent start, de la Rosa only gave up 6 hits in 6 innings. Also, the Rockies southpaw had allowed 3 earned runs or less in 10 of his 11 prior starts! In fact, 7 of those 10 solid starts saw him allow 2 earned runs or less! Each of his last three starts have resulted in unders. Jason Hammel gets the start for the Cubs and the under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts! The last time Hammel pitched in a game that went over the total was July 1st. He's in top current form with only 7 earned runs allowed in his last 6 starts combined! These pitchers also have the edge of their opponents having not yet faced them this season. As a road fave of -125 to -150, the under is 20-10 in Cubs games the past three seasons. This season, the under is 23-15 in Cubs games against left-handed starters. 14 of the Cubs last 20 games against teams with a losing record have stayed under the total. 15 of the Rockies last 24 games against teams with a winning record have fell short of the total! A rare pitchers duel expected at Coors Field this afternoon.
Jim Feist
Athletics at White Sox
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of struggling offenses meet. Oakland is a long way from home with a bad offense, #25 in runs scored, #28 in on-base percentage, #22 in slugging. It's their sixth consecutive road contest. The Athletics are 15-37 away against a left-handed starter and face a good one in Jose Quintana (2.85 ERA). Quintana has had some rough luck this season, going just 9-9 despite an outstanding 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. That's mostly because he has received just 3.08 runs of support per game, the second-worst run support. Chicago is no offensive dynamo, either, #26 in runs scored, #21 in on-base percentage and #28 in slugging. Chicago is 19-7-2 under the total versus the AL West.
Chase Diamond
Cardinals at Phillies
Play: Phillies
Big game for us and the 65-57 Cardinals as they take on the 58-66 Phillies. Phillies could be going for a sweep if not for a 9th inning meltdown on Friday. I love today's pitching matchup as it really favors the Phillies Vince Velasquez is 8-5 with a 4.14 ERA but really has electric stuff. Mike Leake on the other hand is very hittable and I believe the Phillies will get to him today. Vince is on a innings limit with the Phillies and really only has 3 or 4 more starts this season and I think you will see him go all out to close out the season strong. I love the Phillies here at this line this is also getaway day for the Cardinals as they finish up a long 9 day road trip and I'm sure there will be some guys just wanting to get this game over with. Public betting is 75% behind the Cardinals here yet this line has dropped from -120 to -113 and I expect the Phillies to be -115 by gametime.
David Banks
NY Mets @ SF Giants
NY Mets -113
It’s a Sunday night pitching matchup made for prime time as the Mets Noah Syndergaard takes on the Giants Jeff Samadzija as the two teams close out their four-game series. Both teams desperately need wins as they fight to stay relevant in talks of postseason play. Last year’s NL champion Mets are struggling, having lost seven of their past 10 games. They are now a game below .500 and two games behind second-place Miami in the NL East.
The Giants lost four games in a row, including being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates, before defeating the Mets 10-7 in the first game of their weekend series on Thursday night. San Francisco is now just a half-game behind NL West leader Los Angeles. The Giants finally found some offense on Thursday getting a big two-run homer from winning pitcher Madison Bumgarner. Left-fielder Angel Pagan has been hot in August and now leads the team in batting average hitting .296. Pagan, a 10-year MLB veteran, is 9-for-26 (.423) over the past week and has five doubles.
For the Mets to get back on track, they are going to need Yoenis Cespedes back in the lineup. The centerfielder just came off the 15-day disabled list where he rested a quadriceps injury. Cespedes lead the Mets in batting average (.289), home runs (22), and RBIs (59). Having him back will be a big boost to the Mets, one of MLB’s worst hitting teams (.239).
Also back for the Mets is shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, who suffered a knee injury that put him on the 15-day disabled list at the beginning of August. Syndergaard, 10-7 on the season, lost to the Giants way back on May 1 when he gave up five hits and four runs in a 6-1 loss. He is just 1-4 since July 3. Samardzija (10-8 ), like Syndergaard, has not had much success recently going just 1-3 since July 8. The Giants right-hander has not struck out more than six batters since May 24.
Dwayne Bryant
Rangers at Rays
Play: Under 8.5
Tampa's Drew Smyly strikes out better than a batter per inning at home where he also sports a 0.99 WHIP (doesn't walk many). Texas' Martin Perez has allowed exactly one earned run in three of his last four starts. Despite his O/U mark of 11-8 this season, home plate umpire Jim Wolf shows some excellent UNDER stats. I'm expecting no more than seven runs in this one.
Carmine Bianco
Portland at Seattle
Play: Over 2.5
Two sides that have produced some exciting and goal filled matches when they meet on the pitch. 7 of 10 MLS league matches between the two have goal over this listed total producing 38 goals. With a Seattle side that offensively has improved greatly with a recent coaching change I'll take the Over 2 1/2 here.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -151
Detroit is worth a look here at home against the Red Sox on Sunday. The Tigers have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Justin Verlander against the Red Sox Henry Owens. Verlander is 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 home starts and has a red-hot 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Owens on the other hand will be making his first start since May and for good reason. Owens was awful in his 3 starts earlier this season, posting a 5.11 ERA an ugly 2.109 WHIP. Verlander isn't going to be intimidated by the strong Boston offense. In fact, he has a strong 2.90 ERA and 1.124 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.
Alex Smart
Dodgers vs. Reds
Play: Reds +121
Cincinnati has taken the first two games of this series, and look like viable bets in game 3 of this series behind Anthony DeSclafani’s 5 straight home wins. The hurler owns a 2.37 ERA in three career starts covering 19 innings against the Dodgers.