Jimmy Boyd
Diamondbacks +112
Arizona is showing great value here as a small road dog against the Padres on Sunday. San Diego will send out Luis Perdomo, who has an ugly 5.71 ERA and 1.961 WHIP in his last 3 starts and awful 6.23 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in 4 home starts. Arizona counters with Brandon Shipley, who has really pitched well on the road. Shipley owns a 2.95 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 3 road starts. He's also in a prime spot to succeed, as the Padres come in hitting just .199 as a team over their last 7 games. Arizona on the other hand is averaging 6.3 runs/game and hitting .299 as a team over their last 7 games.
Diamondbacks are 9-2 in their last 11 road games after a contest with a combined score of 3 runs or less, while the Padres are 10-29 in their last 39 day games and 3-16 when playing on Sunday this season.
Neil The Greek
Mets vs, Giants
Play: Over 7.5
The Giants have acted like bears since the all star break, pretty much hibernating since then. But in the last few games, they are showing signs of coming out of this slump. Their offense is starting to click on all cylinders, and once that happens, watch out. Because their pitching will calm down and relax at that point. But on Sunday, they will be involved in an old fashioned slug fest.
Anthony Michael
San Francisco +100
Have to love the Giants here at home behind Samardzija. Everyone loves Syndergaard but statistically Samardzija is not that far off of him. The Giants are excellent at home and the Mets are not great on the road and they on a west coast trip. Take the home standing Giants at this dog price to win with Anthony on Sunday night.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -158
I'm willing to lay the big juice on the Chicago Cubs Sunday considering the massive advantage they have on the mound. The Cubs have also won 19 of their last 23 games overall and are playing better than anybody right now.
Jason Hammel is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues. He has gone 13-5 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in 23 starts, including 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in his last three starts. Hammel has pitched 20 shutout innings in his last three outings.
Jorge De La Rosa is 6-7 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.702 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.746 WHIP in eight home starts. De La Rosa gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Cubs.
Hammel is 9-0 (+9.5 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 earned runs or less in his last two outings this season. The Cubs are 6-0 in Hammel's last six starts. Chicago is 63-25 in its last 88 vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are 1-5 in De La Rosa's last six starts.
Michael Alexander
Red Sox +147
Ortiz tied Ted Williams for the most home runs ever in a season by a player after the age of 40 when he took a hanging curveball from Daniel Norris and belted it into the stands in right for his 29th homer and what proved to be the decisive shot in Saturday’s 3-2 victory. Ortiz is 6-for-8 with a pair of home runs in the series and helped Boston to wins in eight of the last nine games, which has kept it within a half-game of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East. The Tigers are sliding in the opposite direction with losses in 10 of their last 13 contests to fall 3 1/2 back of the Baltimore Orioles for the second AL wild card. Detroit’s offense has been the biggest culprit in the decline, with the club managing two runs or fewer in nine of those 13 contests.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +144 over CLEVELAND
On the surface, Cory Kluber took a big step back last year from his 2014 breakout. However, he was the same pitcher both years. After hit, strand, and hr/f gods were firmly on his side in 2014, regression in those marks and a few more fly-balls sent his ERA above 3.00. This year, Kluber is the same ace he’s been for three years running. He has an elite BB/K split of 38/163 in 163 innings. His 3.15 ERA has the support of his 3.36 xERA. He throws strikes, he wins games and he comes in with an elite 14% swing and miss rate. Kluber has a lethal enough arsenal to not want to fade him but he’s also had some blowups. Kluber’s 41%/20%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile over his past 10 starts reveals his risk at Progressive Field. Let’s not forget that Kluber is 13-8 so it’s not like he always wins and never loses.
The real wager here, however, surrounds Marcus Stroman, who has quietly surpassed Aaron Sanchez as Toronto’s ace. For the first 3½ months of the season, Stroman was not the dominant starter he was expected to be. However, you would be hard pressed to find a more dominant starter in the majors over the past five weeks or so. Over that stretch, Stroman’s 2.77 xERA is the best in the majors. Over his last 25 innings, Stroman has 32 K’s with just three walks issued. On top of those strikeouts is an elite 60% groundball rate. Stroman got off to a slow start but his elite profile has kicked into gear. His top-tier control/groundball%/strikeout rate combo make him one of the most difficult pitchers in baseball to score upon and now he’s priced like he’s R.A. Dickey. Win or lose, you will not make a better value bet today than the Blue Jays taking back a tag like this with Stroman on the mound.
Miami +126 over PITTSBURGH
The Marlins go for the sweep here and there is nothing suggesting they won’t get it. Pittsburgh has been a bankroll killer as the chalk all season long and have zero appeal here as the favorite with Ryan Vogelsong going. On August 5, Vogelsong made his first start since a frightening eye injury after being hit in the face by a pitch two months prior. Vogelsong gave up just one run in six innings against the Braves and followed that up with another strong start against the Padres. Then the wheels inevitably flew off in his last start against the Giants. We say inevitably because this is a weak set of skills. Vogelsong drew one (!) swinging strike in his last start in 94 pitches. His swinging strike rate this season is one of MLB’s worst at 5%. He has an overall BB/K split of 15/28 in 39.1 innings. Pay no attention to Vogelsong’s overall surface ERA of 3.20 or to his 2.55 ERA since returning from injury. Vogelsong’s xERA of 5.72 assures us that regression is coming. He’s been greatly aided by an unsustainable 80% strand rate but sooner or later all those hard hit balls will land elsewhere besides right at someone. Vogelsong lived on the margins when he was “good” and now at 38, he’s unlikely to return any profits.
The Pirates are favored here because of Jose Urena’s 6.80 ERA. This game is another example of how surface stats influence the line and how misleading they can be. That’s not to say Urena doesn’t bring risk because he does. He’s a starter turned reliever turned starter and has worked in just 20 games this season with only four of those coming as a starter. He has just 42 innings under his belt this season. However, Urena is a starter at heart. He’s just 23-years-old. He’s spent a lot of time in the minors this season already, all as a starter, so this role is his most comfortable. In the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Urena allowed a mere 41 hits in 48.1 innings and pitched to an ERA/xERA split of 3.17/3.44. xERA’s do not take park factors into consideration so Urena’s numbers are therefore even more impressive. Urena has filthy stuff but the risk comes in his inability or lack thereof to throw strikes consistently. In 750 career minor league innings, Urena has allowed just 49 jacks so he’s able to keep the ball in the park. He’s been pitching in the minors since he was 16 years-old. So, control is the key here. When it tanks (3.6 BB’s/9 in MLB), the MLB results fit but elements of intrigue are a 95+ mph heater and his good slider and changeup both show promise. The seeds of something here and now he needs time to sew the raw materials together at this level. If he’s throwing strikes, he has a great chance to succeed. If he’s not and gets blown up, the Marlins can still win this game.
Arizona +109 over SAN DIEGO
We have backed Luis Perdomo many times this season but he and the Padres have been a pooch every single time we stepped in. As the favorite, we’ll now have to switch gears and attack Perdomo. Perdomo remains a very intriguing speculation. His combination of being able to miss bats (10.8% swing and miss rate) and generating groundballs (62%) gives him a unique profile, especially when considering his mid-90s fastball. However, we are absolutely seeing signs of fatigue now. Perdomo’s swing and miss rate since July 22, covering five starts is down to 8%. His walks are up from 3 BB’s/9 before July 22 to 3.9 BB’s/9 afterward. Over his last 30 innings, Perdomo has walked 14 batters and hit two. He now has 40 walks in 100 frames overall and an unsightly 1.84 WHIP. Pitching with all that traffic on the bases all season long is taxing. As a Rule 5 selection, the Padres have been forced to roster him all season, which is not a problem for a team going nowhere. Thing is, he was supposed to be in the minors all year. Perdomo’s highest level of competition before this season was a mere 26 innings at A-ball. He’s raw as can be and he’s paying the price for it now. Fatigued and getting hit hard over his past eight games, Perdomo is about as unappealing a favorite as there is on today’s board.
If you’ve never watched Braden Shipley pitch before and decide to watch him today, you are very likely in for a treat. Shipley has made just five starts this season so we’re talking about a small sample size. He was also whacked in his last start against the light-hitting Mets so there’s a great chance he’ll be overlooked in the market. Shipley was a first-round pick in the 2013 draft and has been effective with three average to above average offerings. This is his first season above Double-A and he’s done a much better job of commanding the plate with his sinking 91-96 mph fastball. On the one hand, his strikeout rate has been disappointing. On the other hand, he works all four quadrants of the strike zone and can get hitters to swing and miss at his power curveball. Shipley is an excellent athlete who repeats his smooth delivery very consistently. His best pitch might be his change-up that has plus deception and drop. He has some work to do with pitch sequencing, but he’s making strides in all facets of pitching. In three of his five starts, Shipley made the Dodgers, Mets (the first time he faced them), and Brewers look silly in a slew of AB’s. The Padres have never seen him before and could be in for a similar fate.
Wunderdog
Houston @ Baltimore
Pick: Houston -115
Houston is a talented young team in a pennant race, winning two in a row over Baltimore, including yesterday as a dog. Alex Bregman and George Springer each belted two-run shots in Saturday's 12-2 rout, moving the team up to #11 in baseball in runs scored. The pitching staff ranks 10th in baseball in ERA (3.99). The Astros send reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel to the mound with a winning record over his last 10 starts. Baltimore is in a pennant race, too, but not playing like it on a 6-10 slide. The starting pitching is suspect at #21 in baseball in team ERA. The Orioles are stuck with Yovani Gallardo (5.18 ERA), who has been taken deep in five of his last six trips to the mound. He's allowed 46 walks in 83+ innings this season, a terrible ratio, and has allowed more hits than innings pitched. He has a losing record at home the last four years in which time Houston has hit him at a .288 clip in 26 innings, allowing 32 hits and 10 walks.
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay -123
Drew Smyly has turned his season around with five consecutive quality starts. Smyly has a 3.16 ERA since the All-Star break. Smyly has a 3.25 career ERA in 10 starts versus the Rangers holding them to a .205 average.
Adrian Beltre is one of the few Rangers who has given Smyly trouble. However, Beltre may not play as he could take bereavement leave after finding out his grandfather passed away before last night's game.
The second part of this handicap is a fade on Texas starter Martin Perez, who has a huge road/home bias. He's 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 road starts this season. Perez is a groundball pitcher. So he doesn't figure to be helped playing on Astroturf here.
Another plus for Tampa Bay is the Rays are expected to have back underrated Logan Forsythe. He's been out with back spasms, but is expected to play.
Vegas Butcher
Houston Astros -117
The Orioles are a top-5 offensive team – everyone knows this. But what you might not know is that they’re a bottom-5 offense (25th) against left-handers. In comes Keuchel, one of the better lefties in the league. Keuchel has a mediocre ERA of 4.6 but his 3.8 SIERA is a better indicator of his form. That ranks as 34th out of about 180 starters. By comparison, Gallardo’s 5.5 SIERA mark is 177th. He’s been atrocious this season. Houston’s offense has been on fire lately, and I expect another strong showing by them today.
Scott Delaney
My free play is a longshot, with the Cincinnati Reds taking on the surging Los Angeles Dodgers. Suddenly, the Dodgers are challenging for first place, and recently overtook the heavily favored San Francisco Giants in the National League West. But after I told you to take the Reds the last two nights, and was right, we saw the Dodgers dip back into second place.
The Reds have won five in a row, were in the right spot to catch L.A. off guard this weekend.
I'm not listing the scheduled starters tonight, as I think the Dodgers will be surprised to see a different team they swept in at Chavez Ravine back in May. Cincinnati, which was mired in an 11-game losing streak when it lost three at Los Angeles, is 21-12 since the All-Star break. The Reds are playing some very good baseball, as we saw the last two night's, in a 9-2 thrashing on Friday and an 11-1 victory on Saturday.
The home crowd will be rocking tonight, as the Reds look to continue building their record above .500 at home. Take the home pup and take a shot.
2* REDS
Brad Wilton
Sunday comp play release is the Nats on the Run Line to take it by 2 runs or more against the Braves.
Washington has won 11 of the 12 games played between the teams this season, and that includes the first 3 of this 4 game series. 2 of the 3 wins this weekend have come by 2 runs or more, and 5 of the Nats last 7 wins on the season against the Bravos have also come by a pair of runs or better.
With Joel De La Cruz winless at 0-5 this season, chances the Nationals get another win by at least 2 runs today appear very strong.
Gio Gonzalez will counter, and he does come in with a 2-0 mark over his last 3 starts. Gonzalez is facing the Braves for the second time this season, as he worked 6 scoreless in a no-decision versus Atlanta back in April.
Back the Nats here on the Run Line.
2* WASHINGTON -1.5
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 106-84 run with free picks: Tampa Bay (-110) at TEXAS.
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays conclude their series this afternoon at Tropicana Field, and I'm going to side with the home team here. I want you listing both pitchers, because even though we may have a mismatch (on paper) of teams, we have quite the intriguing matchup of pitchers. I want you listing both Drew Smyly and Martin Perez, too, as I do think the home hurler nabs the win.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Smyly has posted three wins in his last four starts, and should post another today. His surge has made everyone forget his down time, from mid-May through July, and it should carry into September. On the flipside, Perez is 1-7 with a 6.00 ERA - the second-highest road ERA in the American League - over 12 road starts this year.
BOTTOM LINE is - Here's the thing, the Rangers ran into one of the junior circuit's hottest pitchers last night, and their winning streak came to an end. So that tells me Smyly could feed off that momentum. One of the biggest punches in Texas' lineup could be distracted mentally, as Adrian Beltre was informed of his grandfather's death on Thursday. He had a big night Friday, but I'm not sure if this is now weighing on his mind, and essentially having an effect on the lineup.
1* RAYS
Jeff Benton,
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Astros-Orioles series finale.
The teams have played all 3 games in this long 4 game set Over the total entering play on Sunday, and there is no reason to believe we are in store for a low-scoring game here today.
Houston starter Dallas Keuchel sports an ERA over 6 for his last 3 efforts, and is just 4-7 with a 5.74 ERA on the road this season. 8 of Keuchel's 13 road starts have landed Over the posted price.
Yovani Gallardo has looked a lot better over his last 3 starts, but with the Orioles pitching staff having allowed 32 runs over the first three games this weekend, strong chance the Astros bats will continue to see the ball well this afternoon against Gallardo and put up a few more runs.
It's been a high-scoring set thus far, no change today.
Astros-Orioles Over the total.
4* HOUSTON-BALTIMORE OVER
Chris Jordan
I've been telling you this, but there have been a lot of intangibles involving the Kansas City Royals this weekend. Bottom line, if the defending World Series champs want to keep their playoffs hopes alive, I said they needed to sweep the Twins. I told you that Thursday night with my 600♦ play, I repeated it again with my free play the last two nights and I'm telling you again today with this freebie.
It makes perfect sense to get the run going now, as the Royals come in riding a seven-game win streak, and catch the Twins in Kansas City. The Royals have won 10 of 11 and 12 of 14. They have won their past four series. This is the biggest of them all, as it would solidify the run.
Bottom line, the Royals are finally playing like champions. And realistically, anything less than winning three of the four in this series could prove fatal to their postseason hopes. Tonight is essential.
Look for another win in this one.
5* ROYALS -1.5
Ray Monohan
Arizona / San Diego Over 9
The Diamondbacks and Padres close up a weekend series and the Over here has some value. The Diamondbacks Braden Shipley was knocked around for 7 runs in his last start against the Mets. It was the first time that Shipley looked all out of whack.
Team's will start to adjust to him and change their approaches against him, especially in this case. To add to it, the Diamondbacks pitching staff has an ERA of 6.41 in the month of August. Flip side of things, the Padres send out Luis Perdomo. He continues to give up walks consistently, tallying three more in his last outing. Perdomo has allowed 40 walks in 99.2 innings of work on the season.
Some trends to note. Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego. Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings.
Given the struggles of Perdomo and his walks, expect the Diamondbacks to have a lot of scoring opportunities. Along with that, given the ERA of Arizona as a team, the Padres could have a field day against Shipley. Expect runs to be scored here.