Free Picks for Sunday, August 6th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
YANKEES AT INDIANS
PLAY: INDIANS -118
An outstanding pitching duel could be in store on Sunday as the Indians host the Yankees. New York will fire with a very hot Luis Severino while the Tribe counters with Carlos Carrasco.
Severino has really put it together for the Yanks. He’s commanding his high octane stuff like a polished veteran and is emerging as the true ace of the New York staff.
Carrasco is off an uncharacteristically awful start. That came earlier this week in a completely crazy game against Chris Sale and the Red Sox, perhaps the wildest game I’ve witnessed all season.
I’m one who likes backing high level starting pitchers off a really bad start. Legit #1 and #2 starters are very adept at rebounding right away after a game where they got blown up. I’m banking on that here with Carrasco.
It’s not a slam dunk in terms of value by any stretch, but I priced this game at Cleveland -126, so I’m garnering a bit of a savings at the current tab. I expect this to be a tight battle, but my Sunday free play will be on the Indians to come away with the win.
Scott Rickenbach
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Under 9½
With yesterday's 4-1 win, the Cardinals kept their under streak intact as they have gone 9 straight games with an over! During this stretch the Cards have seen their total push twice with the under going 7-0 in the other 7 games. Look for more of the same Sunday as Adam Wainwright gets the start and St Louis did the right thing by letting his back heal up. He is ready to go now and seeking revenge for a rare poor start versus the Reds earlier this season. Keep in mind, Wainwright is 5-1 with a 3.35 ERA in day games this season and he should enjoy success against a struggling Reds team that has averaged just 2.3 runs per game in their last 8 losses. Cincinnati will have Homer Bailey on the mound for this one. Though his full season numbers look bad, Bailey actually has been pitching better and has held opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 4 of his last 6 starts! That includes a quality start in his most recent home outing so don't be fooled by his full-season numbers at Great American Ball Park. He is pitching much better now than he was earlier this season. The under is 11-3 in the Cardinals last 14 games against teams with a losing record. The under is 8-4 in the Reds last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Look for more of the same in this one.
Scott Spreitzer
Brewers vs. Rays
Play: Rays -135
Struggling on the road bump has been modus operandi for Jimmy Nelson since the start of the 2015 season and this season has been no different. Nelson has especially struggled of late on the road, allowing 19 earned runs in his last 34 1/3 IP with a 1.56 HR's per 9 IP ratio. Today, he faces a Rays' offense that has struggled the last couple days, no doubt about it, but has averaged over 5 rpg in home day games against righthanders on the season. Milwaukee has not hit righties well on the road (3.6 rpg) and will have to face Chris Archer. The Tampa righty is at his best at home and in day action and pitched a gem in his last home start two weeks ago. We expect to have the pitching and offensive advantage in this one and we're recommending a play on the Rays on Sunday.
Art Aronson
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play: Over 8½
Considering the recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers, it would appear to us that this number is just a little low.
Patrick Corbin: He’s 8-10 with a 4.77 ERA. Corbin most recently was shelled for eight runs off ten hits over three innings in 16-4 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday. He’d looked decent over a three-start stretch previous to that, but took a giant step back again with this dud (note that he’s a horrible 2-7 with a 7.06 ERA on the road this year as well.)
Jeff Samardzija: He’s 6-11 with a 4.77 ERA. Samardzija went eight frames against Oakland on Tuesday and gave up four runs off six hits in the eventual 10-4 victory. “The Shark” has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency has been concerned and he’s been particularly pedestrian at home this season by going a poor 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA.
The bottom line: Neither starter has shown any signs of turning things around and we’re not expecting anything to change here either.
Jim Feist
Athletics at Angels
Pick: Over
Oakland is 11-5 over the total on the road against a team with a winning home record. Oakland starter Sean Manaea has thrown 3 bad games in a row, all losses, all over the total. The LA Angels have a hot offense, and will need it with Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 4.90 ERA) on the mound. And the Over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Los Angeles.
Will Rogers
Seattle vs. Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -117
The set-up: Seattle's Felix Hernandez went on the 10-day disabled list Saturday and the game was rained out anyway. That contest will be made up as a doubleheader Sunday, starting at 2:15 ET, as the 56-55 Mariners and 56-52 Royals wrap up a four-game series. The Royals currently hold down the No. 2 wild card spot in the AL but the Mariners are just 1 1/2 games back (Rays are one game back of KC, a half-game ahead of Seattle).
The pitching matchup: Left-hander Marco Gonzales, who was acquired in a July 21 trade with St. Louis, was brought up from Triple-A Tacoma and will start Sunday's contest. The Royals will also start a left-hander in the first game, Danny Duffy (7-6 & 3.42 ERA). Gonzales was a former first-round pick of the Cardinals and posted a 2-0 mark with a 4.50 ERA in two starts with Tacoma. Duffy has pitched fairly well since mid-May, as the Royals have won six of his 10 starts, with him allowing two ERs or less in seven outings. Duffy is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in seven appearances, including five starts, against the Mariners. He beat Seattle on July 4, allowing two runs on five hits while striking out four over 5 2/3 innings.
The pick: Duffy's allowed just one ER in three of his last four outings and I'll back him vs. the untested Gonzales, who makes just his third major-league starts since the 2015 season!
Matt Fargo
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: Arizona +115
Arizona had its three-game winning streak snapped last night with a 5-4 loss to the Giants and it fell a half-game behind the Rockies for first place in the National League Wild Card standings. The Diamondbacks remain one of the more dominating teams in the league however as their +117-run differential is third best in all of baseball behind the Dodgers and Astros as their 18 one-run losses are fourth most in the league. Arizona is now 10-2 over its last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. San Francisco scored more than four runs for just the fifth time in 13 games as the offense has not been able to sustain anything. The Giants are hitting just .246 on the season while their 447 runs are third fewest in baseball, a full 104 runs fewer than Arizona. Putting together winning streaks has been a real problem for San Francisco as the Giants are just 14-28 this season following a win including a 2-7 run over their last nine games. Patrick Corbin takes the hill for Arizona hoping to shake off a bad performance in Chicago against the Cubs where he allowed seven runs in just three innings. That snapped a streak of nine straight starts where he allowed three runs or less so visiting the Giants is a perfect cure for a bounce back. San Francisco hands the ball to Jeff Samardzija who has tossed two straight quality outings after a stretch of three straight non-quality performances. He has been inconsistent all season and the Diamondbacks have torched right-handed pitching this season and have won 51 of 85 games against righty starters.
Dwayne Bryant
Brewers at Rays
Play: Under 7.5
My MLB Totals Betting System likes both starters' low BB% with Nelson at 5.8% and Archer at 7.4%. It also likes both starters' low xFIP with Nelson at 3.12 and Archer at 3.38, which indicates more solid outings ahead for both. Milwaukee is averaging just 3.6 runs in its road day games against righties. Both teams' hitters have had very limited exposure to today's opposing starter, which should give both starters an early game edge. We also get Adrian Johnson calling balls & strikes, and he shows a solid Under bias.
Buster Sports
Chicago at Boston
Play: Over 10.5
The Boston Red Sox look to win their fifth game in a row and sweep the lowly Chicago White Sox. We are not sure if that will happen but what we do know is that we will be on the OVER here today in Boston. The starting pitchers for today’s game are for the White Sox RH Mike Pelfrey (3-9, 5.04 ERA) and he will face the Red Sox’s RH Doug Fister (1-3, 5.18 ERA) These two pitchers have had trouble this year as their records will suggest. In Pelfrey’s last 3 road starts he is sporting a nasty 6.89 ERA with a WHIP of 1.659. His last outing against Toronto he gave up 6 runs in 5 2/3 innings. We see Pelfrey being really off form and that’s never good when coming to Fenway Park. As for Fister, the Red Sox picked him up off waivers from the Angels in June. This will be his 6th start for the Red Sox and he has came out of the bullpen as well. Fister did have a quality start against Cleveland last game but he is still sporting a 5.50 ERA in 3 home starts. Fister has had trouble with the base on balls this year and we believe that will be no different today and help push this game OVER the total.
Carmine Bianco
Galaxy at Timbers
Play: Over 3
Sunday's Free Play is the total as the Galaxy travel to Portland for an earlier than usual game (heat warning) against the Timbers. Timbers on a 3-0 run at home with Overs and 6 of last 10 in this series have gone over with 5 of those with 4+ goals.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia @ Colorado
Pick: Colorado -109
Colorado won its third in a row and fourth in five games by an 8-5 score over the Phillies on Saturday, which was the fifth consecutive loss for Philadelphia. The Rockies improved to 35-20 at home, and Philly fell to 16-41 on the road and 39-69 overall. Jeff Hoffman went through a rough stretch this season, but comes off a quality start allowing two runs on five hits in six innings against the Mets. Hoffman faced the Phillies once this year and gave up one run on three hits in seven innings. The Rockies have won five of the last six meetings. Aaron Nola will make his first start at Coors Field, and the Phillies have lost three of his past five starts. Even though he has pitched well, He's lacked run support in the losses. This is a favorable line for Colorado playing at home against the worst team in the Majors.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Yankees +101 over CLEVELAND
The skills of Carlos Carrasco have been obvious for years but so have his health woes. After losing all of 2012 and much of 2013 to Tommy John surgery, he’s been nicked up the past few years and so he’s never approached 200 innings for any season. We’re now going to test his durability because fatigue could set in for a guy that’s not used to throwing so many innings in a season. Furthermore, he’s prone to giving up jacks and that plays into the Yankees’ strength. Lastly, Carrasco has been so much better on the road this year with a 3.44 ERA as opposed to his 4.47 ERA at Progressive Field. We’ve also heard some rumblings about a tight pectoral muscle in July and if that’s more than rumblings, the risk increases greatly.
Meanwhile, Luis Severino has been outstanding on the road with a 2.71/2.55 ERA/xERA split. Severino is truly in the midst of a full breakout in 2017 (3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and don't expect it to be a one-year blip. His skills have been off the charts with 10.2 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and 52% grounders. His ability to elevate his upper-90s fastball and also spot his stuff low in the zone has driven his surge, one that has been supported by a 14% swing and miss rate, 66% first-pitch strike rate and 34% ball%. At age 23, Severino is a premium young starter with Cy Young potential and we’re not going to miss him when we don’t have to spot anything to get behind him.
Detroit +140 over BALTIMORE
We understand that Anibal Sanchez may get whacked here. His stock has been falling for years because his surface stats have deteriorated but it’s not as bad as it seems. Anibal Sanchez had another rollercoaster month in July (5.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 27 IP). Again, his skills were much better than his stats with an xERA of 4.24. Sanchez’s swing and miss rate was up to 12% and with a BB/K split of 6/23 over his last 28 innings covering five starts, his foundation is getting stronger. Yeah, he’s a risk, especially in this park against the HR hitting Orioles but Ubaldo Jimenez is a much bigger risk spotting a price like this.
Jimenez just keeps suffering through brutal stretches, as he has nothing but trouble getting the ball over the plate. Shaky control, a 7% swing and miss rate, a 5.27 xERA and a high percentage of disaster starts show he's extremely flammable, which means we’re in fade mode when he’s the chalk and that’s all there is to it. surface stats have deteriorated but it’s not as bad as it seems. Anibal Sanchez had another rollercoaster month in July (5.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 27 IP). Again, his skills were much better than his stats with an xERA of 4.24. Sanchez’s swing and miss rate was up to 12% and with a BB/K split of 6/23 over his last 28 innings covering five starts, his foundation is getting stronger. Yeah, he’s a risk, especially in this park against the HR hitting Orioles but Ubaldo Jimenez is a much bigger risk spotting a price like this.
Jimenez just keeps suffering through brutal stretches, as he has nothing but trouble getting the ball over the plate. Shaky control, a 7% swing and miss rate, a 5.27 xERA and a high percentage of disaster starts show he's extremely flammable, which means we’re in fade mode when he’s the chalk and that’s all there is to it.
Seattle +140 over KANSAS CITY
This is the first game of a DH and will feature Danny Duffy versus Marco Gonzales.
There is a big discrepancy between Danny Duffy’s 3.42 ERA and his 4.85 xERA, which means a correction to the bad is eventually coming. Duffy has just 85 K’s in 108 frames to go along with a pedestrian groundball/fly-ball split of 38%/41%. The lack of Ks has done a number on Duffy's xERA but a fortunate hr/f has kept his surface ERA from unraveling. That stingy walk rate should continue but his drop in fastball velocity is a concern. Duffy is a decent starter but he’s not as good as his surface stats suggest, which in turn has created an inflated price on him here.
Marco Gonzales was traded from the Cardinals to the Mariners near the deadline in exchange for minor league outfielder Tyler O'Neil, the No. 2 prospect in Seattle's organization. Gonzales starred at Gonzaga University in Spokane, Washington on his way to becoming a first-round pick of the Cardinals in the 2013 MLB draft. So, there are two positives working in Gonzales’ favor here. For one, he’s going “home” and will now pitch for the team he grew up rooting for and watching and secondly, the M’s thought highly enough of him to give up one of their best prospects to get him.
Gonzales has over 300 innings in the minors with close to 200 of those innings having been spent in the pitching difficult PCL league. He only allowed an oppBA of .238 in those aforementioned PCL innings. Gonzales shot through the Cardinals system after being drafted in the first round in 2013, reaching the majors the following season, and then succumbing to Tommy John surgery in 2015. The 6’1”, 195-pound lefty out of Gonzaga was never considered a high-upside pitcher, but his floor is considered to be a rock-solid #3 starter who will pitch above his stuff and offer good ratios, if the Ks aren’t always there. Reports are that the command on his fastball is near to what it was pre-injury, and that he’s working more consistently 91 than 88 or 89 with it. The change is still a plus-to-plus-plus pitch that he continues to throw in any count. Paired with an average curve and a command profile that still projects plus when he’s all the way back, Gonzales still has middle-of-the-rotation upside. He’s always kept his team in games while limiting the damage. Gonzales is a well-established lefty-killer, currently holding them to a .143/.200/.214 slash line and now he’s paid his dues. We like the profile, we like the price and we like the team he pitches for because they can score runs with anyone.
Philadelphia -1½ +180 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
18-31 + 16.55 units
Larry Ness
Arizona vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco -121
The Arizona Diamondbacks were just 69-93 in 2106 but have turned their fortunes around in 2017 and currently look like a strong favorite to earn a wild card berth in the NL. Meanwhile, the Gianst saw their even-year 'magic' end in 2016 (had won World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014), when they lost to the Cubs in four games during an NLDS matchup. However, no one anticipated the collapse we've seen by the Giants here in 2017. San Francisco fell 2-1 in the series opener Friday against the D'backs but rallied for a 5-4, 10-inning walk-off win Saturday. That said, it matters little as San Francisco is 43-69, leaving them an incredible 36 games back of the Dodgers, while owning MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$3110 (over $1,000 worse than the Phillies, who own MLB's worst record at 39-69). The rubber match of the three-game series goes Sunday, with the 63-47 D'backs sitting a half-game back of the Rockies for the top wild card spot but also five games clear of the Brewers for the final wild card spot.
Arizona's Patrick Corbin (8-10, 4.77 ERA) will face San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija (6-11, 4.77 ERA) on Sunday afternoon. Corbin had won back-to-back games against Cincinnati and Atlanta, allowing a combined three runs over 13.1 innings in those victories but this past Tuesday at Wrigley, was battered for eight runs on 10 hits (including three HRs) over a season-low three innings in a 16-4 loss. Corbin is 4-6 with a 3.51 ERA in 17 games (15 starts / team is 7-8 ) against the Giants.
Samardzija has seen the Giants go 9-13 in his 22 starts here in 2017 and his moneyline mark of minus-$624 ranks 17th-worst among starters. Samardzija is 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 14 games (nine starts / teams are 3-6) in his career against Arizona. However, he has won back-to-back starts, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings with eight strikeouts and two walks in a 2-1 victory against Pittsburgh on July 26 and then this past Tuesday in Oakland, he gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits over eight innings in a 10-4 victory.
The D'backs are just 10-11 since the break and just may be 'leaking oil.' I'm taking a shot with Samardzija, who always has "the stuff" to win. One just needs for him to "be on!"
Brandon Lee
Brewers vs. Rays
Play: Under 7½
I cashed in on the UNDER 8.5 yesterday with my Interleague Total of the Year and I'm firing right back on the under Sunday, even though it's a full run less. These two teams have combined for 5 runs in the first two games of this series with Milwaukee accounting for all 5 runs. The Brewers have scored 3 or less runs in 8 of their last 9 games and Tampa Bay is swinging with little to no confidence after getting shutout in back-to-back games. All that and we have another great pitching matchup with Jimmy Nelson against Chris Archer.