Doug Upstone
Phillies vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -109
The Rockies have taken first two games and go for the sweep on Sunday. I like there chances because NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PHILADELPHIA), hitting team .255 or less, against a below average NL starting pitcher (ERA range of 5.20 to 5.70) , with a hot starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last three starts are awful 7-34 the last two decades.
Dave Price
Kansas City Royals -149 Game 1
The Kansas City Royals have lost 4 of their last 5 and will be hungry for a victory here Sunday against the Seattle Mariners as they continue to try and chase down the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. Their most talented starter is Danny Duffy, and he gets the ball today. Duffy is 7-6 with a 3.42 ERA in 17 starts this year, including 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 7 home starts. He has given up just 2 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings over his last 2 starts on the road against the Orioles and Tigers. Duffy is 1-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 5 lifetime starts vs. Seattle, and the Royals have gone 4-1 in those games. The Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Marco Gonzales will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Mariners after giving up 5 runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 5-8 loss to the Brewers on June 13th. Duffy is 24-8 (+14.2 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 lifetime.
Jack Jones
Blue Jays vs. Astros
Play:Blue Jays +106
The Toronto Blue Jays should not be underdogs to the Houston Astros today. Injuries have undone the Astros, which is why they are just 2-6 in their last eight games overall. They have key injuries in their lineup, their rotation and their bullpen right now.
The Blue Jays have the edge on the mound this afternoon behind Marcus Stroman, who is 10-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Stroman is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in four career starts against the Astros. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 18 base runners with 27 K's in 20 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.
Mike Fiers is 7-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 21 starts for the Astros. He has struggled in losing his last two starts against the Rays and Phillies, giving up 9 earned runs, 3 homers and 19 base runners in 10 1/3 innings for a 7.84 ERA. Fiers is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against Toronto.
John Martin
Rangers vs. Twins
Play: Twins -138
The Minnesota Twins have the superior starter going today in Jose Berrios. The young right-hander has gone 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 15 starts this year, and 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in six home starts. He is certainly one of the cornerstones of the franchise moving forward. Nick Martinez is 3-4 with a 5.35 ERA in 12 starts this year, 2-3 with a 5.57 ERA in six road starts and 2-1 with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. He just returned to the rotation on August 1st and promptly allowed 7 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Mariners. Martinez is 0-1 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in three previous starts against the Twins.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Yankees -101
Edges - Yankees: Severino 5-2 with 2.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP last seven team starts… Indians: Carrasco 1-3 home carer team starts in this series… With that look for the Pinstripes to improve to 15-10 as an underdog this season here this afternoon, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Jimmy Boyd
Athletics vs. Angels
Play: Angels -119
I like the value here with the Angels at home in Sunday's series finale against the A's. LA had won 4 straight prior to losing 0-5 in Skaggs return from the DL on Saturday. I look for the Angels to bounce back and take the rubber match here.
Oakland is sending out Sean Manaea, who gets some love from the books due to a 3.88 ERA and 1.284 WHIP in 20 starts, but he's been struggling of late and owns a 5.17 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Manaea is also 0-2 with a 5.22 ERA in 4 career (all losses) starts against the Angels. LA counters with Ricky Nolasco, who is coming off two strong starts and owns a 3.26 ERA and 0.980 WHIP in 10 career starts against the A's.
Oakland is a mere 14-30 after 2 or more consecutive road games, 9-20 in their last 29 on the road with a money line of +125 to -125 and 0-10 in their last 10 after shutting out a division opponent in their previous game.
Chase Diamond
Cardinals vs. Reds
Play: Reds +116
This game features the 54-56 Cardinals at the 45-65 Reds. Last night we lost with a big play on the Reds today we are going to go small on them there is so much public action on the Cardinals here today about 81% of bets have gone on the Cardinals yet this line is creeping the other way suggesting the sharp cash is backing the Reds again today. Cardinals offense has been struggling and I am not sold Wainwright is 100%. Homer Bailey can not look any worse this line just seems way off to me.
Chip Chirimbes
Yankees vs. Indians
Play:Yankees +100
Very quietly Luis Serverino (8-4, 2.98 ERA) have evolved as the Yankees most effective starter and is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA against Cleveland. The Indians will start Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 3.89) who is 4-4 with a 3.67 ERA versus New York.
Ricky Tran
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
Play: Giants -122
The Giants are short favorites coming into this rubber match at home, but most bettors would normally shy away from a team who is 43-69 on the season. Not the Asian Assassin, this is one where he sees value on the home side who's playing nothing but the spoiler role at this point in the season.
Ricky sees a situational angle here today. The home side will be getting a leg up due to an early start versus a team who's been on the road since 7/27/17. The Diamondbacks want nothing more then to get home after a grueling road trip with several games going into extra innings and some even delayed by several hours. Throw in the cross country travel to Saint Louis to Chicago and over to San Francisco, they have to be worn out having only a single day off during their road adventure. Meanwhile the Giants haven't left California since before the All-Star Break on July 7th! - they'll be the much more well rested team in this matchup.
The Diamondbacks are 7-17 in the last 24 meetings vs. the Giants and they are 3-7 in the last 9 meetings in San Francisco.
Doc's Sports
Dodgers vs. Mets
Play: Mets +147
The odds for this matchup have Los Angeles at -170 and New York at +150. The Dodgers have a 45-57-8 over/under mark and a 53-57-0 run line record. The Mets are 45-62-0 against the run line and have a 62-34-11 over/under record.
Valuable Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 45-57-8 against the over/under
The Los Angeles Dodgers are 53-57-0 against the run line
Important New York Mets Betting Trends
The New York Mets are 62-34-11 against the over/under
The New York Mets are 45-62-0 against the run line
Useful Pitching Statistics
The Dodgers have a 77-32 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 3-6 record with an earned run average of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.37. He has 81 strikeouts over his 84.2 innings pitched and he's given up 90 hits. He allows 9.6 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.6. The bullpen has an earned run average of 2.96 and they have given up 286 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .212 against the bullpen and they've struck out 404 hitters and walked 107 batters. As a team, Los Angeles allows 7.4 hits per nine innings while striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings. They are 1st in the league in team earned run average at 3.08. The Dodgers pitchers collectively have given up 809 base hits and 335 earned runs. They have allowed 106 home runs this season, ranking them 30th in the league. Los Angeles as a pitching staff has walked 287 batters and struck out 1023. They have walked 2.6 men per 9 innings while striking out 9.4 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.12 and their FIP as a unit is 3.43.
Hitting Statistics
As a team Los Angeles is hitting .259, good for 11th in the league. The Dodgers hold a .453 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .343, which is good for 2nd in baseball. They rank 14th in MLB with 8.7 hits per game. Cody Bellinger is hitting .264 with an on-base percentage of .344. He has 87 hits this season in 329 at bats with 71 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .599 and an OPS+ of 141. Corey Seager is hitting .307 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .397. He has totaled 115 hits and he has driven in 53 men in 375 at bats. His OPS+ is 141 while his slugging percentage is at .528. The Dodgers have 944 hits, including 214 doubles and 156 home runs. Los Angeles has walked 444 times so far this season and they have struck out 946 times as a unit. They have left 770 men on base and have a team OPS of .796. They score 5.08 runs per contest and have scored a total of 554 runs this year.
Useful Pitching Statistics
New York has a 49-58 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 5.50, Steven Matz has a 2-4 record and a 1.51 WHIP. He has 36 strikeouts over the 52.1 innings he's pitched. He's also given up 66 hits. He allows 11.4 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 5.06. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.69 and they have given up 382 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .264 against the Mets bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 392 batters and walked 166 opposing hitters. As a team, New York allows 9.7 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 28th in the league in team earned run average at 4.92. The Mets pitchers as a team have surrendered 1033 base knocks and 523 earned runs this season. They have given up 150 home runs this year, which ranks 7th in Major League Baseball. New York as a staff has walked 379 hitters and struck out 930 batters. They give up a walk 3.6 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.48 while their FIP as a staff is 4.55.
Hitting Statistics
As a team, they are batting .251, good for 19th in the league. The Mets hold a .443 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .320, which is good for 20th in baseball. They rank 16th in MLB with 8.6 hits per contest. Jay Bruce comes into this matchup batting .260 with an OBP of .324. He has 104 hits this year along with 75 RBI in 400 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .528 with an OPS+ of 119. Michael Conforto is hitting .296 this season and he has an OBP of .399. He has collected 92 hits in 311 at bats while driving in 56 runs. He has an OPS+ of 150 and a slugging percentage of .566. The Mets as a unit have 923 base hits, including 195 doubles and 156 homers. New York has walked 346 times this year and they have struck out on 829 occasions. They have had 719 men left on base and have an OPS of .762. They have scored 4.75 runs per game and totaled 508 runs this season.
ASA
Nationals vs. Cubs
Play: Over 9½
With this total dropping all the way down to a 9.5 after opening at a 10.5 it is definitely "go time" for pulling the trigger on a wager on the over in this one. The wind will be blowing out for this day game at Wrigley Field and these are the type of games that can get nuts at the old ball park in Chicago. The Nationals have 72 homers in day games this season and the Cubs have hit 67 homers in afternoon action this season. That ranks these teams #1 and #2 in the majors out of all 30 clubs. Indeed two powerful lineups are matched up in a good situation here so how about the pitchers? Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs. Although the southpaw has great numbers on the season, he has struggled badly in recent home outings (14 earned runs in 17 and 2 / 3 innings at Wrigley) and we expect that to continue against the powerful Nationals lineup. Washington will have Erick Fedde toeing the rubber in this one and he got crushed for 5 earned runs on 10 hits in 4 innings last Sunday and now makes his first ever road start. Tough spot for the 24 year old hurler and we won't hesitate to grab the line value here.
Bob Balfe
Rockies -110
The Phillies have the starting pitching edge, but on offense they are not the best team at driving in runs. Teams that tend to leave a lot of men on base don’t win in ballparks like this one. Colorado is a better baseball team and at almost even money we will back them again at home.
Nelly
Arizona at San Francisco
Play: Arizona +113
The Cubs hit Patrick Corbin hard on Tuesday but Chicago is one of baseball’s very best hitting teams vs. left-handed pitching. That run ended a run of nine straight starts for the Arizona southpaw in which he allowed three or fewer runs. Corbin’s season ERA is marginal at 4.77 but his xFIP is below 4.00 and he has solid strikeout and walk numbers. He hasn’t pitched well on the road but AT&T Park will offer a much better environment than a typical road venue. Jeff Samardzija has picked up back-to-back wins but he has still allowed three or more runs in 16 of his 22 starts this season. While his FIP has been well below his ERA this season that is a frequent occurrence for the veteran and while he owns a fantastic strikeout-to-walk ratio he also has one of baseball’s worst teams behind him. Arizona is one of baseball’s top hitting teams vs. right-handed pitching with a season OPS of .797. The Diamondbacks haven’t been a great road team but the Giants are just 23-31 at home, scoring just 3.7 runs per game and since June San Francisco is just 20-36 overall.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona at San Francisco
Pick: Over 8
We'll figure on some runs being scored in this game between the D-backs and Giants. That's been the rule in recent starts made by Arizona's Patrick Corbin, in whose last four outings the scorelines have totaled 20, 13, 14, and 13 runs. Meanwhile in only one of Jeff Samardzija's last none starts has a Giants game totaled fewer than the 8-run total in this game.
Brad Wilton
My Sunday comp play is for the Cardinals and the Reds to once again hold Under the total with Adam Wainwright and Homer Bailey on the hill.
On Friday it was a 3-2 Under in the series opener between the division-rivals, and last night we also saw an Under, as the Cardinals took it 4-1.
St. Louis has been Under the total now in 7 of their last 9 games, with the other 2 in that mix winding up a push against the closing totals price. Overall, the Redbirds are 17-6-4 Under the total through their last 27 games played.
Cincinnati is also on an Under run, as the Reds have now played their last 4 Under the posted price.
Cards hurler Adam Wainwright has allowed just 6 runs - only 5 earned - over his last 3 starts, and the Under has gone 4-1-1 the last 6 times he has climbed the hill.
Reds starter Homer Bailey is off a solid 6 innings of 1 run ball in a start against the Pirates his last trip to the mound, and has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 6 efforts.
Both offenses have struggled this weekend, so look for the series finale to play the way the first pair this weekend have, and that is Under the total.
3* ST. LOUIS-CINCINNATI UNDER