Free Picks and Service Plays for Sunday, August 7th 2016. These include free plays, comp plays and newsletter selections.
DAVE COKIN
BLUE JAYS VS ROYALS
PLAY: BLUE JAYS -146
Marcus Stroman heads into today’s duel with the Royals off his best start of the 2016 campaign. Stroman was spectacular in dominating the Astros on Monday night. Toronto ended up losing that game 2-1 in what turned out to be a 14-inning marathon. But that sure wasn’t the fault of Stroman. Instead, it was the Blue Jays offense that suffered a tough night against Doug Fister and company.
Stroman draws Yordano Ventura as his mound adversary today, and Ventura is the type of pitcher the Blue Jaus should have a chance to do some damage against. Ventura has not been good for KC this season, and his failures are definitely part of the reason the Royals won’t be playing baseball in October this time around. Ventur’s walk rate is higher than it should be, and his K rate is a pretty lowly 6.64. That’s almost shocking considering how hard he throws and how many big strikeout numbers there are this season throughout the game.
It really seems as though Ventura has been figured out. Patience is unquestionably a virtue against this righty. Hitters are letting him beat himself by falling behind in the count and then forcing him to get too much of the plate. That has resulted in some mediocre numbers across the board for Ventura. And this tendency could really come into play today. The Blue Jays have the best team walk rate in the American League, and with their power, Toronto is the type of team that might have some great chances to post crooked numbers today against Ventura.
The series is even at one game apiece, as the Jays ran into red hot Danny Duffy on Saturday night and absorbed a 4-2 loss. I believe they have a very good chance to get back on track against Ventura, and with the hopeful buy sign indicated by Stroman on Monday night, I will go ahead and play the favored Toronto side today.
Sleepyj
Mets / Tigers Under 8.5
Needing 9 runs looks a bit steep here IMO....Mets get Degrom on the mound with his 2.41 ERA...Tigers will send out Sanchez with his 6.26....Sanchez is rather bad, but ever now and again he shows up and throws a good game..I worry more about the current mood in the Mets dugout...How is this team looking right now and feeling..my gut feeling is down, but not out..I don't think this game or this series gives them the life they need..Perhaps the next series might be better for the Mets...Sanchez threw a very good game his last time out...He only gave up 1ER off 6 hits in 6 innings...Tigers pitching rotation is up in the air right now and it would be wise for Sanchez to lock down this weak Mets lineup...I think he can do just that...Sanchez might give up 2 or 3 here, but I doubt DeGrom gets shelled for 5 or 6 runs...DeGrom hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts and his K's have been rock solid...Tigers will need to get him in trouble to get the runs they might need to get this over...Tigers haven't seen Degrom in a long time and that really helps a quality ace like Degrom and the Mets...The strongest arm has to go up against the stronger lineup, while the weaker arm has to face the weaker lineup...9 runs looks like a real stretch here...I think we see a 6 or 7 run game at best with limited deep shots if any.
Stephen Nover
Colorado -120
Maybe it's because he pitches for Colorado, but Jon Gray is under-the-radar despite his high ceiling. He is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last seven starts. Gray has given up just four runs in his past five starts posting a 1.11 ERA while holding batters to a .189 average.
I don't see Marlins youngster Adam Conley keeping up with Gray. Conley has a 3.92 road ERA and is off his worst game in more than a month throwing 97 pitches and walking six in four innings against the Cubs this past Monday.
Now Conley gets to enjoy the pleasures of pitching at Coors Field. You can't be wild and survive pitching at Coors Field.
The Marlins are 2-10 the past 12 times they've been on the road facing an opponent with a winning home record.
Colorado is playing good ball winning 12 of its last 16, while going 7-2 in its last nine home contests.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland -115
Neither of these hurlers have pitched well in their last two starts. But still reasons to back the Tribe and Carlos Carrasco, whose ERA stood at 2.31 just two starts ago and has allowed just 5 ER in his last five road starts covering 35 IP (1.29 ERA). Yanks starter Masahiro Tanaka has been struggling, allowing 11 runs (10 earned) and 15 hits over his last two starts covering 11 1/3 IP.
Chase Diamond
Marlins at Rockies
Play: Marlins
This game features the 58-52 Marlins and the 55-55 Rockies. The Rockies have come out of no where to contend for a wild card spot just 3 games behind the Marlins and the Marlins know this is a game they need to have after losing bad to the Rockies last night 12-6. I love Adam Conley who is 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA. He had a rough outing last time out only last 4 innings versus the Cubs but I believe both him and the team will be super motivated today. Jon Gray who goes for the Rockies is due for a stinker today. I also expect this game to go under after yesterday's hitting spree by both teams. 69% of the public are backing the Rockies here but we are seeing this line move in reverse showing us the sharp money is backing the Marlins today.
Rob Vinciletti
Giants vs. Nationals
Play: Over 7½
This game fits a solid totals system that has played over in 15 of 18 applications since 2004. Play the over for home teams with a total of 8 or less that lost as a home favorite at -140 or more by 5+ runs and had 2 or less runs and 5+ hits vs an opponent like SF that won as a road dog and scored 5+ runs and had 10+ hits with both teams playing error free. SF has played over in 4 straight on the road of a 5+ road dog win. Washington has played over in 4 of the last 5 and scoring over 6 runs per game the past week. The Giants will do better here today against T. Roark then they did last week. They have Bumgarner going but he was lit up in Philly last out and allowed 6 runs in 5 innings the last time he pitched here. Look for this one to play over.
Ben Burns
Indians vs. Yankees
Play: Over 8
Prior to yesterday's game, which finished with seven, the Indians had seen five straight games produce a minimum of 11 combined runs. Those five games had scores of 17, 16, 18, 11 and 20. That's an average of greater than 16 runs per game. I won't be surprised if this afternoon's finale at NY also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
Tanaka and Carrasco are both certainly capable of pitching well; both are having solid seasons. That said, each of them really struggled last time out. Carrasco gave up eight runs against Kepler and the Twins, lasting only 3 2/3 innings. Tanaka was a little better, but not by that much. He gave up seven earned runs. They both served up a pair of long-balls.
Tanaka and Carrasco opposed each other, at Cleveland, a little less than a month ago. While it can partly be blamed on the defense, neither fared well in that 7/10 contest, the Yankees ultimately winning 11-7. Tanaka gave up seven runs (3 earned) on 10 hits, lasting only 4 2/3 innings. Carrasco lasted only 3 2 2/3 innings, giving up five (1 earned) runs on five hits. Each pitcher walked a pair of batters and each allowed a ball to leave the yard. Overall, Carrasco has seen the "over" go 5-2 against the Yankees, while posting a 4.03 ERA. Meanwhile, Tanaka is 0-2 with a poor 5.71 ERA and 1.788 WHIP in three starts vs. the Indians, all three of which finished above the total. Take a look at the Over.
Marc Lawrence
Rangers vs. Astros
Play: Rangers -112
Edges - Rangers: Yu Darvish 3-1 career team starts in Houston; and 26Ks and 2 BBs last three starts. Astros: 4-17 last 21 games in this series; With that look for the Rangers to improve to 12-5 on Sundays this season here this afternoon. We recommend a 1* play on Texas.
Mike Lundin
Giants vs. Nationals
Play: Giants -107
The San Francisco Giants have struggled ever since the All Star break with just six wins in 20 games. They're off an emphatic 7-1 victory against the Washington Nationals on Saturday though, and I think we're getting a great price on the visitors in the rubber match of this three game set at Nationals Park.
Madison Bumgarner (10-6, 2.25 ERA) takes the ball for San Francisco. The Giants have lost each of his last four starts and Mad Bum was lit up for eigth runs on 10 hits in five innings at Philadelphia his last turn. His career numbers against Washington are decent though (2.86 ERA, WHIP of 1.045). Bumgarner struck out 14 in a three-hit shutout against Washington last August in the last meeting.
The Nats turn to Tanner Roark (11-6, 3.02) who is 2-1 in his last three starts despite compiling a 4.42 ERA. He's struggled with Giants' catcher Buster Posey who is 4-for-9 in the matchup, and the Giants are 27-11 in their last 38 after scoring five runs or more in their previous game so I like them to keep the momentum from last night's win going here against Roark.
The Nationals meanwhile are 3-7 in their last 10 after scoring two runs or fewer in their previous game, and with the Giants desperate for wins to stay top of the NL West this looks like a good spot to back San Francisco.
Matt Josephs
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Mariners -120
Seattle goes for the sweep with James Paxton on the mound. Paxton has allowed five runs and 13 hits in his last three starts with 21 strikeouts to just two walks. The southpaw held down a potent Red Sox team last time out and is 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in six starts against the Angels. The Angels are scoring just 3.8 runs per game vs. left-handed starters and are 13-19 in day games. Matt Shoemaker is 3-7 with a 5.00 ERA in 11 road starts. He has lost two of his last three outings. He was shelled by Seattle at home back in April allowing seven runs and six hits in three innings. Seattle is hitting .268 against right-handed starters scoring 5.2 runs per game. They are averaging nearly five runs per contest in day games and will face an Angels team that has a decimated back end of the bullpen. I like the Mariners on Sunday afternoon.
Ricky Tran
Blue Jays vs. Royals
Play: Under 8½
For Pick: Marcus Stroman takes the mound with an 8-4 record and a 4.74 ERA. In his last start he pitched 7 innings and gave up 1 run and 3 hits with 13 K's. It was the second straight road game he allowed just 1 earned run and in those 2 games he pitched 15 innings and gave up 2 runs and 11 hits with 19 K's and 1 walk. The Royals are batting .195 against him and in their first meeting this year, he pitched 8 innings and gave up 2 runs and 3 hits. The under is 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 games. Yordano Vntura goes for KC with a 6-9 record and a 4.83 ERA. He pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs and 6 hits his last game which was the fifth straight game he allowed 3 runs or less and has allowed 3 runs or less in 3 of his last 4 home starts. He pitched a total of 12 2/3 innings and gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in his last 2 games at KC. The under is 7-1 in the Royals' last 8 games overall.
Jesse Schule
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -145
The Jays have split the first two game of this series in Kansas City, and I think they have a favorable matchup on the mound in the rubber match Sunday. Marcus Stroman will toe the slab for Toronto, and he's owned Kansas City. Stroman (8-4, 4.74 ERA) struck out 13 batters while allowing one run on three hits over seven innings versus the Astros in his last start. He went eight innings, allowing two runs on three hits and striking out six in a home win over the Royals the last time he faced them. Kansas City is batting a combined .185 against him over 45 at bats. The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura, who is winless in his last seven starts. Ventura (6-9, 4.83 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits and four walks over five innings in a no decision versus Tampa his last time out. He's walked nine batters over his last three starts, and he's 0-4 with a 4.55 ERA in his last five starts. The Royals are batting just .224 since the All Star break, and they've scored the fewest runs of any American League team during that span.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Kansas City
Pick: Toronto
Kansas City took yday's game, 4-2, with Danny Duffy on the bump because win is what they do when Duffy pitches. Incredibly, they are 8-0 his L8 starts overall. But equally incredible is the fact that when Duffy is NOT pitching, the Royals are an absolutely horrendous 3-22 their last 25 games. Today, it will be Yordano Ventura, who last won a decision on June 17th. I won my 10* Game of the Week on Toronto Friday and will come back to recommend them today.
Over Ventura's last seven starts, the Royals are just 1-6 as he's produced a 5.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. That one win did come his last time out, but that was against Tampa Bay. This will be a far taller order as Toronto had won four in a row before yday and was also 4-0 this year vs. KC. They are #2 in the AL in run differential (+83). The Jays have won 20 of 30 overall and I just don't think the Royals have enough offense to compete here. Yesterday's four run effort marked just the second time they scored more than three runs in the last 14 games. Toronto is one of just three AL teams w/ a winning record on the road.
Marcus Stroman goes here for the Jays and he has a 2.43 ERA and 0.923 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, in Houston, he looked as good as he has all season. He allowed just one run and three hits w/ a 13-1 KW rate. Sadly, Toronto still lost the game (2-1). But they've allowed only 12 runs the last 6 games and I expect better fortune for Stroman on Sunday.
Don Best Consensus
Twins at Rays
Pick: Over
The Over is 8-2 in MIN last 10 Sun. games. Head to head the Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay and 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Twins have scored 4+ runs in six of their last eight games.