Ralph Michaels
Packers / Colts Under 34.5
Indy has a massive QB edge with Luck and starters playing one or two series. The Colts #2 QB is Scott Tolzien who spent the last several seasons as the GB backup. On the flip-side Aaron Rodgers will sit as will their #2 QB Brett Hundley who was nicked up this week. That leaves GB with two rookies under center in Joe Callahan (Wesley College) and Marquise Williams (NC). While the edge is massive Vegas made a 4 point line move going from GB -1 to Indy -3 because of that info. You must also be careful going against a very mobile QB like Williams as there will be no true game planning and in the early weeks of preseason QB's can make some long scramble runs. Four of the last 5 Hall of Fame Games have gone UNDER the total and have totaled 30 points or less and I'll lean that way again.
Tony George
Chicago at Oakland
Play: Chicago -152
The Cubs look for another series sweep today, and I think they get it. They have out scored the A's 11-2 the first 2 games and blanked them 4-0 on Saturday, and frankly the Cubs are just a vastly better team, and one of the odds on favs to win it all in 2016.
Hendricks for the Cubs has allowed no earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts and since the All Star break he has emerged as a great pitcher in the rotation for the Cubbies, and his season long ERA of just over 2 will give the A's issues at the plate. Manaea for Oakland has been winless in his last 5 starts and despite a lower ERA which looks respectable, I am siding with Cubs to give a red hot picther enough run support today to win and sweep another series, which would be their second in a row. Oakland has allowed 6 errors in the last 5 games, Cubs the sharper team defensively as well. Chalky but worth the stretch.
Scott Rickenbach
Phillies vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
Jerad Eickhoff gets the start Sunday for the Phillies and he has given up 2 earned runs or less in 9 of his last 12 starts including an amazing 5 of his last 6 on the road. The lone exception was a start at Coors Field in Colorado and, of course, Petco Park in San Diego is the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of hitter-friendly parks. The under is 8- 1 in Eickhoff's last 9 road starts. Jarred Cosart has a solid 1.80 ERA and a stellar 1.00 WHIP in his 4 careers starts against the Phillies. The Padres right-hander also comes into this start having allowed 0 earned runs on only 4 hits in his last 8 and 1/3 innings. Control problems limited him in last start as too many walks forced an early exit. However, the Phillies are dead last in the National League in terms of drawing walks. Look for Cosart to continue avoiding solid contact while Eickhoff comes up with another solid road outing and this one should turn into a pitchers duel.The under is 16-5 in Eickhoff's last 21 starts overall and I expect another one here.
Pat Hawkins
Packers vs. Colts
Play: Under
Both of these teams are slated to play FIVE preseason games so with this being the first of the five expect a complete garage game. If either Luck or Rogers play, it will be a series at most, there is zero reason to trot these guys out especially Luck who is coming off a injury prone 2015 season. The Colts QB rotation is pretty weak with Tolzien and Morris filing in after Luck. The Hall of Fame game has averaged 31 points per game over the last ten seasons, look for this slow pace to continue as this game will be filled with players that won't even make NFL rosters by the second quarter.
Scott Spreitzer
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -120
We cashed with the Rockies last night and we're on them again this afternoon. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games and Jon Gray, who has not allowed more than three earned runs his last six starts, takes the mound on Sunday. The Rockies have won Gray's last three starts and the game before that was a 1-0 loss. The right-hander is 8-4 with a 3.77 ERA overall, including 5-0 and 3.83 at home. Adam Conley has had control problems his last two starts walking six batters in 10 2/3 innings. Conley will be making his first appearance at Coors Field where the Rockies lead the majors with an .892 OPS and Colorado is seventh in the big leagues overall with a .778 OPS against left-handers. Miami has lost five of its last six road games against right-handed starters.
Carmine Bianco
Brondby IF at FC Midtjlland
Play: Over 2.5
Midtjlland were one of the best home teams last season, second only to FC Copenhagen. Game's on home soil averages slightly over this total at 2.7 while Brondby games away from home were generally higher scoring with an average of almost 3.5. I'll lean on the over here Sunday.
Buster Sports
Reds vs. Pirates
Play: Under 7.5
The Pirates try to sweep the Reds today in the final game of their 3 game series. The Pirates send RH Gerrit Cole (7-6, 2.73 ERA) to the hill today and he has been excellent for the Pirates since coming off the disabled list. His last 3 starts he has a 1.35 ERA with a WHIP just under 1. At home this year he has a 2.52 ERA with a WHIP of 1.208. The Reds send RH Dan Straily (6-6, 3.80 ERA) to the hill today and he has been very good of late for the Reds. In the month of July, in 5 starts, Straily has a 2-1 record with a 2.41 ERA and a excellent WHIP of 0.86. When starting against the Pirates he has a 2.45 ERA and with a WHIP of 1.091. We see a good pitching battle today at PNC Park. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 road games and the fact that the UNDER is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 vs. National League Central.
Bob Balfe
Mets -125
The Mets were on the losing end of two close games in this series and now today have without a doubt have the pitching edge. Degrom has been spectacular this season and the Mets also have the advantage in the bullpen. Take the Mets.
Jim Feist
Blue Jays at Royals
Pick: Over
Toronto York heads out on the road with a powerhouse offense, Top 6 in runs scored. The Over is 4-1 in Marcus Stroman's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Starter Yordano Ventura (4.83 ERA) hasn't been able to throw strikes all year, walking 50 in 119 innings. His last 18 innings (three starts) he's walked nine batters. The Over is 8-3-2 in Ventura's last 13 starts vs. the American League East.
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore -1½ -103 over CHICAGO
James Shields had a nice five-game stretch (1.78 ERA) prior to his last start against Detroit but it was all smoke and mirrors so pay no attention to it whatsoever. Over his last 34 innings, Shields has walked 11 batters while whiffing a lousy 14. In his last start, Shields’ struck out one batter in five innings, Justin Upton, who has struck out 128 times in 104 games. Shields’ is not pitching any better now than he was when he first joined the White Sox and pitched to an ERA of 11.07 after his first five starts. Shields’ continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He’s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well here against this visiting group of designated hitters. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they’ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields’ putrid 27%/59% groundball/fly-ball split over his last four games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in awfully hard, he’ll be taken yard today more than once.
Forget Chris Tillman, as Dylan Bundy has quietly turned into the ace of this staff and his skills put Tillman’s skills to shame. Bundy has 24 K’s and five walks issued over his past 21 innings. Overall he has 56 K’s in 59 innings with the support of his underlying 12% swing and miss rate. Bundy is averaging 94.1 MPH on the gun. He’s gaining more confidence with each passing dominant start and he’ll now face a South Side nine that can’t get out of their own way right now.
Minnesota +120 over TAMPA BAY
Kyle Gibson has been hurt by some harder contact of late, although at likely unsustainably high hr/f and hit rates which have muddied his numbers. Gibson at normalized rates is a fine play against a high-strikeout Tampa offense that struggles against right-handers (.711 OPS) and that has notched a mere .689 OPS over the last two weeks. Gibson still had a nice July, as he started to resemble the pitcher who carried nice breakout potential coming out of spring training before he got hurt. Since the beginning of July, Gibson has recorded 8 K’s/9 with a 52% groundball rate and just 2 BB’s/9. He also missed bats at a solid rate (9.8% swing and miss). Gibson's combination of strikeouts and groundballs makes him very worthy of backing here.
Matt Andriese is making his second start since being re-inserted into the Rays rotation on August 2, which coincided with the trade of Matt Moore to San Fran. Andriese has mostly been pitching in middle relief since being pulled from the rotation back on June 10. His numbers in relief were very good but one can never put a lot of weight on relief numbers when that reliever switches back to the rotation. There’s a reason Andriese didn’t stick in the rotation and now he’s the next man up. Andriese went 5-1 in eight starts at the beginning of the 2016 season, although he had a 13%/25% dominant start/disaster start split in those starts. That paints a more realistic picture. He completed six innings or more in four of the starts, and into the sixth for two more, but it may take a few starts for him to recover that length. Also note, somewhat typically, that his skills in 2016 as a starter (6.4 K’s/9 40% groundball rate in 49.1 innings) are not nearly as exciting as those as a reliever (7.5 K’s/9 47% groundball rate in 22.2 innings). Andriese will be facing a Minnesota squad that has notched a .919 OPS over the last two weeks and 5.9 runs per game on an .831 OPS since June 18.
Cleveland -1½ +150 over N.Y. YANKEES
Carlos Carrasco entered the season with huge breakout potential on the heels of the AL-best skills he posted in September 2015. He missed over a month early this year due to a hamstring issue, then watched as rotation mate Danny Salazar got all the attention as Cleveland’s new ace. However, it's Carrasco who has posted the best skills among any Indians starter during the last 12 months with 10.2 K’s/9, 2.2 BB’s/9 and 54% groundballs. His stats have been excellent, too (3.01 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and would be even better if not for an inflated 19% hr/f. We now get Carrasco in an evenly priced game because the Yanks will send out the ever-reliable Masahiro Tanaka.
Not many have been as successful pitching with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament as Masahiro Tanaka has been since he was diagnosed in July of 2014, this perhaps due to his vast arsenal of pitches. However, things are beginning to take a dramatic turn for the worse for Tanaka so now would be the time to start fading him in a big way. Tanaka’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits over his last seven starts of 38%/26%/36% is one of the more troubling profiles among starters over that span. His swing and miss rate has dropped from month-to-month but over the past month, it has dropped two full percentage points from 11% to 9%. What’s even more interesting is that Tanaka is throwing his best pitch (the splitter) less frequently this year and especially less frequently over his past 10 starts. Perhaps throwing the splitter is causing elbow discomfort or maybe discomfort in his elbow is reducing the splitter's effectiveness. Regardless, it’s a troubling sign along with the others. That diverse arsenal that Tanaka has been using since he arrived is shrinking and hitters have already started to make hard contact n him. Tanaka’s xERA/ERA split over his last five starts is 4.77/4.82, which is the highest of his career by a wide margin. The decision to bypass the surgery a couple of years ago may finally be catching up to Tanaka. The skills’ decline is telling us something that we are not going to ignore.
SPORTS WAGERS
Green Bay +3 over Indy
Mike McCarthy's career preseason record is close to .500 at 19-20 and the Packers seemed to make a point of coming out strong last season when they beat the Patriots 22-11 in Week 1 of the preseason. This Hall of Fame weekend is all about the Ol' Gunslinger (Brett Favre) so the “Packer Backers” are out in full force. This game was a pick 'em before it was announced that Aaron Rodgers would not dress. Since that announcement, there has been a big overreaction that has pushed this number to where it is at now but it's too big an overreaction considering the starters don't usually play more than a series or two in the first game anyway.
Colts' Head Coach Chuck Pagano has won 44 games in Indy the last four seasons but his preseason record is just 5-11. With that in mind, the Colts are just 1-3 in Week 1 of the preseason under Pagano with the only game they've won under him in the first week of the preseason being his first game as head coach in 2012, where he was surely trying to make a good first impression. Pagano just signed a four-year contract extension so he’s under no pressure to perform in the preseason and so we can’t find a single reason why his approach to these games would change now.
Frank Jordan
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -183
Pittsburgh has won a pair of close games 3-2 Friday and 5-3 Saturday and look for the sweep. Pittsburgh is throwing Gerrit Cole who is 7-6 with a 2.73, but in his career against Cincinnati he is 0-5 in seven starts with a 5.30 ERA. This season Cole is coming off a pair of wins allowing just a single run in each start and at home Cole has a 2.53 ERA. Cincinnati has Dan Straily pitching who is 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA and the Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts. The road has been rough for Straily with a 3-5 mark in 11 starts with a 4.48 ERA. In three appearances and two starts against Pittsburgh, but is 0-1 despite a 2.40 ERA. Look for Cole to finally get a win over the Reds as he keeps his his strong pitching going and the Pirates win 5-1.
Brad Wilton
Not going to go into heavy-duty analysis here, but with Green Bay expected not to use their top 2 quarterbacks, I am not sure how you can expect undrafted QB's Marquise Williams and Joe Callahan to put enough points on the board for the Packers to help contribute to an Over?
Likewise, don't expect Chuck Pagano to be using too many of his projected starters for too long in this one, so with a multitude of players that have not seen much playing time expected to dominate this Hall of Fame Game in Canton, I will side with the defense to keep this score at a minimum.
As I type this analysis, the total stands at around 34 points, and truthfully I would be surprised of these teams make it to 28 combined points tonight.
Packers-Colts to hold Under.
2* GREEN BAY-INDIANAPOLIS UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday, to get things started before tonight's football game from Tom Benson Stadium in Canton, Ohio, is the Cleveland Indians against the New York Yankees in the Bronx, at Yankee Stadium.
In this one, I want you listing Carlos Carrasco over Masahiro Tanaka, as we have a pitching rematch from not too long ago, and Cleveland's right-hander out for revenge.
First of all, Carrasco is looking to redeem himself after throwing a mere 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Twins in his last start, as he was tagged for eight runs on nine hits and struck out one before being pulled after 92 pitches. Now, look, Carrasco had nine straight starts of three runs or fewer - including his loss to these Yankees on July 10, when he lasted 3-2/3 innings and gave up five runs, but only one was earned.
Carrasco actually had a decent ERA in July - a slim 2.22 - and has pitched well or the most part this season, with a 7-5 record and 3.12 ERA.
As for Tanaka, he's struggled in the month of August, as his career 4.24 ERA during the eighth month is his highest of any. His first start this month didn't help, as he allowed seven runs in 6 1/3 innings pitched. He'll get tagged today pretty good, by the American League Central leaders.
Take the Indians and list both pitchers.
3* INDIANS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the Indians-Yankees finale.
After 4 straight series Overs, Saturday's contest saw a total of 7 runs, and the Under.
Look for that trend to continue as Carlos Carrasco and Masahiro Tanaka get back on track.
Carrasco just allowed 8 runs in under 4 innings of work in his last start against Minnesota, but in his 9 starts prior, he had allowed just 3 runs or less to score. Safe to say, he will get back on track in this spot on Sunday afternoon.
Tanaka has turned in back-to-back poor starts, both on the road, but the Under is still 3-1 his last 4 starts, and for the season, the Under is 13-9 in his 22 season starts.
With the temperature hovering right around 90 F, look for there to be some "give up" at bats, and some quick scoreless innings posted by both hurlers.
Cleveland-New York Under the total.
3* CLEVELAND-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER