Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, July 10

Mike Lundin

Angels vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -1½

This looks like a good spot to back the Baltimore Orioles on the run-line as they take on the Los Angeles Angeles in the series finale of a three-game series.

Tim Lincecum (1-2, 7.50 ERA) takes the ball for the Halos. He's surrendered 29 hits and nine walks in his first 18 innings cover four starts with the Angels. His last outing was the worst of the bunch when he was tagged with five runs on 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings at Tampa Bay.

The Orioles turn to Chris Tillman (11-2, 3.55 ERA) who held the Dodgers to one run on five hits in seven innings of a 4-1 win his last time out. Tillman is 7-0 with a 3.45 ERA in 11 home starts this year and 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in four career starts against the Angels.

Los Angeles will be without C.J. Cron who also missed Saturday's 3-2 defeat. Cron suffered a broken hand on Friday night when hit by a Mike Wright pitch. Bad news for the Angels as Cron was on fire during the current road trip, leading the Halos offense. Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 during Game 3 of a series. Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 during Game 3 of a series. Orioles are 21-14 against the run-line as a home favorite this season.

Scott Spreitzer

Yankees vs. Indians
Play: Indians -127

Cleveland lost in extra innings yesterday but the Indians still are in first place by 7 1/2 games in AL Central and 26-15 at home while New York is 20-26 on the road. Cleveland has won Carlos Carrasco's last four starts by a combined score of 25-4 while he allowed just four runs and 15 hits in 29 2/3 innings. He gave up just three runs in 14 2/3 innings against the Yankees in 2015 with a .173 opponent batting average. New York is tied for 27th in the major leagues with 243 runs scored against right-handers. Masahiro Tanaka pitched seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox after being touched for six runs in six innings against Texas. Cleveland hitters are batting .350 against Tanaka, including Mike Napoli, who is 5-for-8 with two home runs. Cleveland is 12-3 its last 15 games against right-handed starters.

Martin Griffiths

Kansas City vs. New York
Play: Over 2½

This looks like be a very entertaining game with the prospect of goals high.

Both teams are in good form, New York have won their last four MLS games and will be looking to make it five from five this evening.

Kansas are unbeaten in their last four MLS games, drawing two and winning two and will be confident that they can get the better of City tonight.

So we have two teams in decent form, both confident and both with momentum, that leads me to believe that we can expect goals.

The stats are mixed on that outcome I do admit, however this is more about current circumstances, neither team will look to defend and both will want to win.

All things considered I am going for over 2.5 goals.

Marc Lawrence

Nationals vs. Mets
Play: Mets -118

Edges - Mets: Steven Matz 3.69 ERA with 1.19 WHIP home this season, and 25 K’s with 6 BB’s last three starts. Nationals: Gio Gonzalez 1-8 with 7.65 ERA last nine team starts, and 2-6 with 5.05 ERA away team starts this season. With Matz 1-0 with a spotless 0.00 ERA in his only start in this series, and Gonzalez 0-4 in his day team starts this season, we recommend a 1* play in the NY Mets.

Larry Ness

Washington vs. NY Mets
Pick: NY Mets

The New York Mets were hoping to close the gap on the Washington Nationals in the NL East with a four-game home series right before the All Star break. The Mets took the series opener on Thursday but the lost 3-1 on Friday and 4-1 on Saturday, meaning the best the team can hope for now is a split. Meanwhile, the Nationals have a chance to push their lead to six games with a win in Sunday’s series finale heading into the All-Star break. New York added pitcher Noah Syndergaard and slugger Yoenis Cespedes (both All Stars) to its injury list on Friday and couldn’t cope with Max Scherzer during Saturday’s 6-1 loss. To add insult to injury, they watched playoff hero Daniel Murphy (signed as a free agent by the Nats) perform at an All-Star level for Washington. Murphy was 3-for-4 on Saturday and now leads the majors in hitting with a .349 batting average.

Gio Gonzalez (4-8, 4.79 ERA) gets the ball for the Nats and Steven Matz (7-4, 3.34 ERA) for the Mets. Gonzalez is 10-5 with a 3.04 ERA in 19 career starts against the Mets (teams are 12-7) but enters this game just 1-7 with a 7.66 ERA in his last nine starts (Nats are 1-8.). Matz will be starting for the third time on the Mets' season-long 11-game home stand and like Gonzalez, is in a slump. He lost his season opener but then won SEVEN consecutive starts to reach 7-1 with a 2.36 ERA. However, he’s winless in his last seven starts, a stretch in which he is 0-3 with a 4.58 ERA (Mets are 2-5).

I noted that Matz is winless in his last seven starts but will add here that he earned his most recent win back on May 25 when he threw a career-high eight shutout innings in the New York’s 2-0 victory over Washington (it’s his lone career start against the Nationals). Gonzalez and Matz are both overdue but my bet is with the home team.

Jim Feist

Padres at Dodgers
Pick: Under

Christian Friedrich goes for the Padres with a better road ERA (3.10 ERA) then at home. He heads to Dodger stadium, a big park, great for pitchers and the under is 9-3 in the Padres last 12 during game 4 of a series. San Diego has a below average offense and faces Kenta Maeda, with a 3.07 ERA. The Under is 22-8 in the Dodgers last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing record. And the Under is 35-16 in Dodgers last 51 home games.

Chase Diamond

Cardinals at Brewers
Play: Brewers

This game has the 45-42 Cardinals and the 38-48 Brewers. Better pitcher and home field advantage working for us in this game. The Cardinals won yesterday 8-1 and I don't think they will be to into this game today as they look to get to the break today and head home. Junior Guerra goes for the Brewers he is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA clearly their best starter. He is coming off a game where he dominated the Nationals going 7.1 innings giving up just 2 hits and striking out 7. Mike Leake goes for the Cardinals they have lost 4 straight games he has started. Brewers will want to win the series and the Cards are pretty beat up right now looking to head into the break.

Oskeim Sports

Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -180

Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is 7-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season, and he is coming off the best start of the season (against the Dodgers) wherein he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Overall, Tillman is 11-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 2016, together with a 4.30 FIP and 4.37 SIERA.

However, Tillman boasts a 3.98 FIP and 3.82 xFIP at Camden Yards, together with a 24.3% K% (9.05 K/9) and 15.8% K-BB%. I also like the fact that the 28-year-old is a perfect 2-0 with a career 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP versus the Angels.

Tillman is also supported by a solid Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 3.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, Los Angeles takes the field with a lineup that is producing just 4.5 runs in day games (12-14; -2.3 units) and 4.6 runs per game overall in 2016. Conversely, Baltimore's attack is averaging 5.7 runs in afternoon tilts and 5.3 run per game at home this season.

The Orioles have also hit a league-best 135 home runs, setting a franchise records for the most home runs before the All-Star break. Los Angeles starter Tim Lincecum is coming off a subpar outing wherein he allowed 10 hits and five runs over 4 2/3 innings of work against the Rays on July 5. Lincecum has failed to complete five innings in three of his four starts this season, and Camden Yards is a difficult venue for any pitcher against such a potent Baltimore lineup.

After undergoing hip surgery last September, the former Cy Young winner has allowed 29 hits in 18 innings in his comeback attempt in Anaheim. His fastball velocity is down (89 mph) and reports indicate that the 32-year-old is dealing with psychological issues based upon his downward career trajectory.

“I’m working with a (sport psychologist) right now, Tom Mitchell, who is out of the Bay Area," Lincecum said. "I thought it was necessary. I felt like, at times, the game and the lifestyle of this game - what I was going through on the field - became a little bit overwhelming. I needed some help dealing with that, coping with things and moving on from what I’ve gone through up until this point."

Overall, Lincecum is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 4.63 SIERA in 2016, together with an alarming 10% BB% and a poor 8.9% K-BB%. Let's also note that the Angels' bullpen owns a pedestrian 4.09 ERA this season, including a 4.80 ERA on the road, a 4.48 ERA in day games and a 4.99 ERA over its last seven games.

Technically speaking, Baltimore is 8-1 in its last nine games versus teams with a losing record, 8-2 in its last ten during game 3 of a series, 7-2 in its last 9 following a win and 37-14 in its last 51 home games, including 40-17 versus right-handed starters.

The Orioles are also 18-4 in Tillman's last 22 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 home starts versus .499 or worse opposition and 42-18 in Tillman's last 60 home starts overall. Take Baltimore and invest with confidence.

Scott Rickenbach

Twins vs. Rangers
Play: Under 10½

I used the over in the game between these clubs yesterday and easily cashed it as my AL Total of the Month. There has not been an under yet in this series and this is the finale of a 4-game set. Today looks like the ideal opportunity for line value with an under. This line is a bit inflated at 10.5 and the Twins Tommy Milone is off of a fantastic start versus Oakland. He also allowed just 3 hits while striking out 8 in a fantastic 7-inning outing in his last visit to Texas. That was his only start against the Rangers since June of 2014 and that means the Texas hitters haven't seen a whole lot of him lately. Look for the crafty lefty to keep them off balance all game. He'll be opposed by AJ Griffin who has been pitching well for the Rangers but just hasn't been pitching deep into games. Look for him to "put it together" against a Twins team that hasn't seen him since 2013 and Griffin dominated Minny in that start. He comes into this outing having an undefeated record on the season in his 9 starts and Griffin has compiled a solid 3.06 ERA in those outings. Heading into yesterday's game, the last 8 times the Rangers were at home with posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs, only 2 of the games resulted in an over!

Jimmy Boyd

Yankees/Indians Under 7½

We are getting enough value here with the number to back the UNDER with confidence in Sunday's matchup between the Yankees and Indians. Two elite AL starters will take the mound in this one, as New York sends out their ace Masahiro Tanaka against the surging Carlos Carrasco.

Tanaka owns a 3.12 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 17 starts and has been at his best away from home. Tanaka has a 1.14 ERA and 0.904 WHIP in 8 road starts. He was dominant in his last outing at Chicago (White Sox), giving up just 6 hits with 6 strikeouts in 7 2/3 scoreless innings. Carrasco has a 2.47 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in 11 starts and has been on a roll of late with a 0.81 ERA and 0.717 WHIP in his last 3 starts.

UNDER is 7-2 in Tanaka's last 9 road starts and 8-3 in his last 11 against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 5-1 in Carrasco's last 6 starts and 3-0-1 in his last 4 against a team with a losing record.

Joe Williams

Phillies at Rockies
Play: Under 12

The under is 8-2 in Colorado's past 10 games overall, and 7-0 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching. The under is also 6-2 in Tyler Chatwood's past eight overall, and 4-0 in his past four home assignments. For Philly, the under is 5-1 in their past six against the Rockies. The under is also 4-1 in their past five overall, and 12-5 in their past 17 games against National League West opponents.

Wunderdog

San Antonio @ New York
Pick: San Antonio +13

San Antonio is 8-3 ATS its last 11 road games and 7-0 ATS after a loss. The Stars have covered seven of their last 10 games in New York. The Stars lost to Seattle on Friday when the Storm shot 50 percent from the field. Moriah Jefferson led the Stars with 16 points. New York is in first place in the Eastern Conference with a 14-6 record, but the Liberty is only 3-14 ATS their last 17 home games. New York won at Chicago 88-85 with Tina Charles scoring 29 points with nine rebounds. The Stars have a good ATS history in New York, and this is a big number.

Bruce Marshall

Philadelphia +173

Coors Field got to Phils starter Jerad Eickhoff on Saturday but it didn't get to Vince Velasquez on Friday, when the Phils won. This afternoon it's Zach Elfin's turn to deal with the Denver altitude, but he's dealt well with most situations the past few weeks, allowing just 4 runs over 21 IP in his last three starts (1.71 ERA). Rocks starter Tyler Chatwood has allowed three runs or more in all but one of his Coors Field starts this season.

Gabriel DuPont

Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 81-72 run with free picks: Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO (-1', -120).

The STORYLINE in this game today - The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants close out their National League West series, in the first-half finale. With this one being in the national spotlight, on the late game nationally televised game, the Giants are going to make a statement with a blowout win.

The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - As you'll read in a moment, I could care less about the pitchers, as the Giants have won three straight while the Diamondbacks have lost three in a row. But the fact is we will have automatically listed pitchers, and I have to feel comfortable with Madison Bumgarner over Archie Bradley. Bumgarner is limiting opponents to a .100 batting average with runners in scoring position, while Bradley has a 5.73 ERA in two career starts against the Giants.

BOTTOM LINE is - Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team, as it won't matter who is going in this rout.

2* SAN FRANCISCO -1.5