Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play winner is the Yankees-Indians Under the total.
After some high-scoring games at Progressive Field this long weekend, look for the pitching to keep the hitting at bay.
Masahiro Tanaka is 4-1 with an ERA under 2 on the road this season, and he will face Carlos Carrasco who is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA his last 3 starts, and 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA for the season.
10 of Tanaka's 17 season starts have held Under the total, while 7 of Carrasco's 11 season starts have held Under the total.
Pitching rules the roost on Sunday.
Yanks-Tribe Under.
2* N.Y. YANKEES-CLEVELAND UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Over in the Twins and Rangers contest from Arlington.
Last week at Target Field the teams played 2 of their 3 games Over the total, and thus far this weekend they are 2-0-1 Over the total in their first three contested.
The series now stands at 6-1-1 the last 8 times the teams have played.
Each of Minnesota starter Tommy Milone's last 3 starts, and 5 of his 7 overall season starts have landed Over the total, while 5 of A.J. Griffin's 9 starts this year have played Over the posted price.
Have to believe based on the trends I just listed that we see another high-scoring affair.
Twins-Rangers Over.
4* MINNESOTA-TEXAS OVER
JACK JONES
New York Mets -128
Good value here with the New York Mets as small home favorites over the Washington Nationals. The Mets want to win this game Sunday to close the gap on their deficit in the NL East Division as they currently sit five games behind the Nationals.
Steven Matz is clearly the superior starter in this matchup. He has gone 7-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Matz is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against Washington. He pitched eight shutout innings against the Nationals earlier this season on May 25.
Gio Gonzalez has really struggled over the last month and is now 4-8 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 17 starts this season. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts as well.
The Nationals are 1-8 in Gonzalez's last nine starts overall, including 0-4 in his last four road starts. The Mets are 5-1 in their last six vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 8-1 in Matz's last nine starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
BRANDON LEE
Brewers -118
Milwaukee is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Cardinals. The Brewers will send out one of the most underrated starters in the league right now in Junior Guerra. He's 6-1 with a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts overall, has a 2.47 ERA in his 6 starts at home and a 0.81 ERA in his last 3 outings. Cardinals will counter with Mike Leake, who has a 4.33 ERA in 17 starts, a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 and a 4.58 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers.
ASA
Reds vs. Marlins
Play: Over 9
The Reds hand the ball to Cody Reed for this start and he has given up 20 earned runs in the 20 innings he's logged since coming up to the MLB level. He is winless in these 4 starts and all 4 have gone over the total. Miami will have Tom Koehler toeing the rubber this afternoon and each of his last 3 starts have gone over the total. The Marlins are 6-2 to the over in his last 8 starts. Koehler has given up 11 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 starts. A big concern is that he had no strikeouts in his most recent start and only lasted 3 innings in his prior start. The over is 9-3 this season in Miami's games with a total set at 9 or 9.5 runs by the odds makers. The past 2+ seasons the over in Reds games is 9-4 when the total is set at 9 or 9.5 runs and Cincinnati is on the road.
DAVE PRICE
Boston Red Sox -1.5 -115
The Boston Red Sox have won 5 of their last 6 games overall with 4 of those victories coming by 3 runs or more. Look for them to cover the run line today as well due to their advantage on the mound. David Price is 8-6 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in 18 starts this season. Jake Odorizzi sports a 4.93 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in 8 road starts this year, and an 8.22 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in his last 3 starts overall. Odorizzi gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings against the Red Sox on April 21 in his only start against them this season. Tampa Bay is 3-16 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games after 4 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It is losing by 2.1 runs per game in this spot. The Rays are 3-18 (-15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. They are losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot. The Rays are 0-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. They are losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati +146 over MIAMI
Tom Koehler has started 17 games for the Marlins and he’s 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA while averaging just over five innings per start. Koehler’s ERA over his past three starts is 7.07. His xERA is 4.94 and his WHIP is 1.54. One can comb through his profile every year since he entered the league and find nothing but a lot of ugly numbers. Even his batted ball profile of 40% grounders, 24% line-drives and 36% fly-balls is ugly. Tom Koehler is a back-of-the-rotation guy that is a big risk spotting prices like this.
Cody Reed brings his 0-3 record and 9.00 ERA after four starts into this one. Welcome to the bigs, kid. The long ball has done in him, as he’s surrendered eight of them in four starts. However, two of his starts came at home, one was at Wrigley with the wind blowing out and the other was at Houston’s Minute Maid Park. Marlins Ballpark is an extreme pitcher's park so Reed figures to benefit from that in terms of HR’s allowed. Aside from that, Reed has pitched well. He has 22 K’s in 20 frames, which is backed up by a 12% swing and miss rate. His groundball rate is outstanding at 53%. The Johnny Cueto deal last year would not have happened without Reed, as he was the main cog in that trade. He was a raw-tools bet for the Royals in the second round of 2013 and has all the talent in the world to succeed. Reed has an ideal pitching frame and features two pitches that get plus-plus grades in his mid-90s fastball and mid-to-high-80s slider. The fastball can touch 97, and shows solid late life while coming in with good deception because of a low, three-quarters arm slot. The slider is a true out pitch for him, which similarly showcases biting, sweeping tilt. Yeah, Reed is suffering from growing pains and yeah, he may bet lit up again. However, he’s not the first talented rookie to get whacked early in his career before something clicks. That something can click at any time but at the end of the day, Tom Koehler does not warrant being in this price range against a Reds’ team that can score runs. We'll take our chances on talent over experience.
Minnesota +150 over TEXAS
In terms of value, this is probably the best wager of the day. Texas dropped another one last night, 8-6. It was the eighth (!) straight game in which its starter could not make it out of the fifth inning. The Rangers have now dropped eight of their past 11 games and come into this final game before the break with a heavily taxed bullpen. At one point during the season recently and despite having the best record in the AL, Texas was an underdog in 23 of 25 straight games! That reveals exactly what the books thought about these imposters and they were right. The Rangers have gotten every bounce this season. They have strung together hits in timely fashion while the brutal pitching staff luckily weaved and danced their way through lineups. Well, the clock has struck midnight on the Rangers and they’ll limp into the All-Star break having had one day off over the past 39 days. They are extremely ripe to get beat again today.
The Twins are the exact opposite of the Rangers. Projected to finish with more wins than the Rangers, Minnesota was on a pace to lose 120 games (!) at the end of May. With 12 wins in their past 19 games and four wins in their last five, the Twinkies no longer have the worst record in baseball. They are now within striking distance of Tampa Bay, the Angels and the A’s. Loaded with offensive talent and playing well, the Twins are having fun and they’re playing with intensity. Minnesota continues to offer up tremendous value and that applies in this one too.
Tommy Milone brings an elite groundball rate of 60% into this start. Milone is not going to dazzle anyone or strike out many but he’s facing a tired Rangers’ squad and he’s a streaky pitcher that can get hot for a few starts. Frankly, we don’t care who is starting for the Twins because this wager has nothing to do with backing today’s starter. It’s a bet on Minnesota to defeat Texas again.
As long as Cole Hamels isn’t pitching, every other starter on Texas is a huge risk. A.J. Griffin’s 3.06 ERA after nine starts is like all of the Rangers other starter’s numbers, a complete mirage. Griffin has a 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball split. His xERA is 4.42 or nearly 1½-runs higher than his actual ERA. Griffin was supposed to be in the Rangers rotation last season after he recovered from '14 TJ surgery. Then, just before going on a rehab stint, shoulder tendinitis struck, and he missed ANOTHER full season. That’s his story his entire career. He’s made of glass and now he’s priced like it’s 2012. We’ll stash him until he shakes off two years of rust and comes in as a pooch. As a favorite in this range and playing for a Rangers’ team that can’t wait for today to end, this is instant fade material.
Atlanta +151 over CHICAGO
The Braves beat up Chris Sale Friday night. They had a decent chance to win yesterday, eventually falling 5-4. The Braves have scored 15 runs in two games at U.S Cellular Field and also scored five times on the Mets before coming here. Now they face James Shields. We don’t have to go into details about Big Game. He’s been a disaster signing for the South Side and he’s going to cost somebody a job because of it. Shields brings his 7.23 ERA and 7.11 xERA into this start but he’s priced like he’s La Marr Hoyt (look it up). If the South Side and Shields’ emerge victorious here, we’ll be the first to congratulate them but there is no chance of us refusing this tag on this stiff. Shields was recently a +221 dog against Rich Porcello and how he’s a -170 (or thereabouts) favorite over Mike Foltynewicz. Really?
Foltynewicz has made just eight starts this year and is 2-3 with an ERA of 4.29. Last year he went 4-6 with a 5.71 ERA in 87 innings for the Braves. He missed September to costochondritis or blood clots in his arm. On the field (last year) a heavy line-drive/fly-ball tilt mixed with an elevated hit rate and hr/f rate wreaked havoc on his ERA. His raw stuff did not translate to a plus K-rate, though his first-pitch strike gains offer hope. Foltynewicz xERA last season further suggested he needed more seasoning. Foltynewicz did, indeed, rejoin the Braves' rotation on June 30. Before going on the DL 5½ weeks ago, he had compiled a 3.97 xERA with a nice BB/K split of 8/35 in 35 innings. The 2.2 BB’s/9 is noteworthy, as he had struggled to throw strikes in his previous MLB stints. Foltynewicz brings 96 MPH heat with late life. He has a tremendous bulldog mentality in that he just keeps coming at hitters and is not fazed by anything. He’s a pitcher to keep on your radar and is an absolute must play taking back a tag like this against James Shields.
Philadelphia +165 over COLORADO
There are a lot of unwarranted big prices today that must be played and this one is among them. Zach Eflin’s 4.30 overall ERA and 6.75 road ERA is the result of his first ever start in which he was tagged for eight runs in 2.2 innings. In four starts since, Eflin has allowed just six earned runs over four starts and he has not walked a batter in three straight starts. Eflin has a nice two-seam fastball that is heavy, generates groundballs and is thrown in the mid-90s mph. He also has a nice change-up with good feel and drop. He doesn't dominate with the strikeouts, but a K-rate of 7.2 in Triple-A should be sufficient when coupled with his groundball approach. Something else that dropped while he was climbing minor league levels is his Batting Average Against, all the way below the .200 level at Triple-A. Throw out his first ever start at this level and his oppBA would be just .206. Eflin had a 14% swing and miss rate in his last start and what we’re seeing is huge progression from this kid. Now he’s a great price in a park where any team can go off for 10 runs.
In 91 innings, Tyler Chatwood has a BB/K split of 33/57. His ERA is 3.08, which is ludicrous when you consider that he is walking too many batters and putting far too many balls in play. Chatwood’s .267 BABIP (batting average of balls in play) puts him ahead of Masahiro Tanaka, David Price, Dallas Keuchel, Steven Matz, Gio Gonzalez and most other starters today as well. BABIP is nothing but a luck driven stat that fluctuates greatly from week to week, month to month and year to year. That Chatwood’s BABIP is so low is even more remarkable when you consider the park he pitches half his games in. Chatwood’s 55% first-pitch strike rate and 7% swing and miss rate are both weak. He’s also benefitted from a 78% strand rate. Chatwood’s skills are not doing the heavy lifting here. Luck is doing all the work but his xERA of 5.15 says it’s going to blow up on him real soon. Buying Chatwood’s 3.08 surface ERA would be a big mistake. We get the superior pitcher here at a big price. That’s value.
SPS Investors
Cubs vs. Pirates
Pick: Pirates
These are two teams that are playing completely different baseball at the moment as they head into the All-Star Break. The Cubs will certainly be looking forward to some much needed time off in order to rest and regroup from their recent struggles. They have lost their last 5 games and 9 of their last 10. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been surging. They have won 2 straight and 9 of their last 10.
With this being the third and final game of the series, the Cubs are certainly in danger of being swept. While it is difficult to sweep a team in three straight games, especially a team as good as the Cubs, this is a matchup where we believe they do. Pittsburgh has been on a dominant roll and their offense is simply seeing the ball extremely well at the moment. Even though the Cubs are favored for good reason in this matchup, simply put, there is too much value on the Bucs as underdogs in this particular situation. This will be a close game, but Pittsburgh will come up with the big hits late to pull out the victory and secure the series sweep.
Harry Bondi
MILWAUKEE -120 over ST Louis
Let's wrap up our baseball Free Winners with red hot Milwaukee right-hander Junior Guerra who looks to avenge his only loss of the season today against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Venezuelan is 6-1 on the season and has been almost unhittable in winning his last 3 starts. In fact, he heads into this match-up with the Cardinals on a 15 1/3 innings scoreless streak! St. Louis counters with Mike Leake who has lost three straight starts. Guerra has been brilliant at home this season and wins again today!
Bob Balfe
Indians -130
The Indians have been a great home team this year and have been hitting the ball very well. Carlos Carrasco has been awesome in his last few starts and I like the Indians chances to cash in this game as we head into the all-star break.