Free Picks for Sunday, July 16th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
INDIANS AT ATHLETICS
PLAY: UNDER 8.5
Trevor Bauer and Sean Manaea are both somewhat inconsistent in different ways. But I like the chances of each guy doing okay today.
Bauer is 6-0-1 to the Under in his last seven road starts, and the Indians have come out of the break very cold with the bats.
As for the lefty Manaea, he’s allowed more than three runs only twice in his last 14 starts. Plus, while it’s not a big sample, the projected Indians starters are only an aggregate 4/34 against the Oakland southpaw.
I give an edge to the two hurlers today and make this O/U less than 7.5, so I’m going to play the Indians and Athletics to stay Under the number.
Ray Monohan
Giants vs. Padres
Play: Over 7½
This play just missed out on our premium card. The San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres face off on Sunday, and with the total being so low, the under has a lot of value. On the mound for the Giants is Jeff Samardzija who has pitched decent this year, but is usually giving up at least three runs every game. If he only goes six innings and gives up three or more runs, that is a good start to getting up to eight runs total.
On the mound for the Padres is Trevor Cahill who hasn't been that consistent this year, and really struggled in his last start. Against the Phillies he only went five innings giving up six hits and four earned runs. The Phillies are not a good offensive team, so giving up four runs to them is not a good sign for what will happen in this game. Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Samardzijas last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Over is 9-2-1 in Padres last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Marc Lawrence
Colorado at New York
Play: Colorado +128
Edges - Rockies: Hoffman 1.67 ERA and 0.79 WHIP away as opposed to 6.43 ERA and 1.57 WHIP home this season… Mets: Matz 1-6 career team starts during July, including 0-3 home… With Hoffman 2-0 in day games, and 2-0 as an underdog this season, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Teddy Davis
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Diamondbacks -106
I believe we will see this line climb before the start so grab it low while you can. The D Backs will wake up here after dropping their first two of this series. Godley is only 3-3 on the season, but has performed a lot better than that. His ERA on the year is 2.58 and his road ERA is 2.65. He is just much better than the declining Garcia who enters in terrible form with a 9.37 ERA his last three starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Blue Jays vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -108
I believe this is a case where the public and oddsmakers are slow to adjust based on what they saw earlier this season. Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez failed to make the rotation to start the year and then was atrocious out of the bullpen, giving up 21 runs in 21 innings of work. He was sent down to the minors to figure it out and Sanchez was determined to get back to being a starter. Something clicked
Something clicked at Toledo, as Sanchez has looked like a completely different guy on the mound since joining the rotation on 6/19. He's made 4 starts and owns a 3.09 ERA and 0.857 WHIP, strikingout 22 in 23 1/3 innings of work. The Tigers offense is coming off a 11-run outburst and have totlated 10 or more hits in 3 straight. That combined with Toronto sending out the struggling Marco Estrada, who has a 5.37 ERA in 10 road starts and 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in his last 3 outings, makes this an easy play on the Tigers at this price.
Frank Jordan
New York vs. Boston
Play: New York +127
The Yankees and Red Sox played a marathon 16 inning game Saturday night as Matt Holliday hit a home run off Kimbrel to lead off the 9th inning to knot the game at one which it stayed that way until the 16th when the Yankees put quite the rally together tallying three runs in a 4-1 victory. This four game set is tied at one with a day night double-header slated for today. This is the first game of that double-header which sees Mitchell being moved to the bullpen and CC Sabathia getting the nod. Sabathia is 7-3 on the season with a 3.81 ERA and on the road is pitching very well at 4-2 in eight starts with a 2.66 ERA. In his only start against Boston Sabathia went eight shutout innings, allowing just five hits, no walks and striking out five. Rick Porcello is throwing for Boston and he hasn't had a great year coming in at 4-11 with a 4.75 ERA. In 10 home starts Porcello has an ERA over five and is 3-6. Porcello has made a pair of starts this year against the Yankees with a 0-2 record and ERA of 4.85. Look for Sabathia to build off the big win yesterday and throw another gem against the Red Sox as the Yankee bats get him some runs early as they hit Porcello hard early for a 6-3 win.
Brandon Shively
Washington vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Over 10
Homer Bailey was rocked by Washington a few weeks ago. The Nationals have been one of the most consistent offenses in baseball this year. Tanner Roark is having a terrible season and this Reds offense is much better than most realize. Both bullpens are subpar and I see the bullpens being stretched here as the starters struggle early on. The total is high, but I think it goes over with both teams scoring a lot.
Bruce Marshall
Cleveland at Oakland
Pick: Oakland
The A's have risen up dramatically at times this season and this weekend appears to be another example. The visiting Indians are proving very unreliable and could not win with their aces Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber the last two nights, and not sure the struggling Trevor Bauer and his 5.24 ERA do any better this afternoon. Meanwhile the A's continue to get consistent work from lefty Sean Manaea, with eight quality starts in his last nine outings.
Jim Feist
Cleveland at Oakland
Pick: Cleveland
Cleveland has a strong offense, sixth in baseball in on-base percentage. Trevor Bauer has been throwing well, with over 100 Ks in 92+ innings. The Indians are on 9-3 run on the road, 18-5 in their last 23 vs. the American League West. Oakland is home but has a weak offense, bottom 10 in runs scored and on-base percentage. Sean Manaea has walked 19 in 47 home innings and the Athletics are 3-8 in their last 11 home games.
Brandon Lee
Astros -1½ -110
I think there's a lot to like about backing the Astros on the run line and banking on them winning here by at least 2 runs. For starters, Houston should be motivated coming off a loss, which now leaves them needing a win to secure a series win in the finale on Sunday. Keep in mind this is a Astros team that hasn't lost back-to-back games since early June. On top of that, Houston's high-powered offense will be facing Kyle Gibson, who has a 6.31 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in 16 starts, giving up 7 runs in his last start at home against the Orioles. Houston's Michael Fiers has a solid 3.09 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 8 home starts and should get more than enough run support to secure a victory by more than 1 run.
Jack Jones
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Play: Diamondbacks -108
The Arizona Diamondbacks will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep against the Atlanta Braves today after losing the first two games of this series. They should take Game 3 no problem due to their huge edge on the mound.
Zack Godley has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 3-3 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in 11 starts this season, and 1-2 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in six road starts.
Jaime Garcia is now 2-7 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.354 WHIP in 16 starts this season after going 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA and 1.837 WHIP in his last three starts. He has yet to win at home, going 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in seven starts.
Garcia has also allowed 9 earned runs over 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, losing both.
SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado +127 over N.Y. METS
Steven Matz is a fiery competitor, which counts for something but his 3.05 ERA after six starts has him overvalued in a big way. Matz has a mere 23 K’s in 38 innings, which means he’s at the mercy of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). In his last start, he struck out one batter and it was the pitcher. Matz has upside to be sure but he’s spent more time on the DL over the past two seasons than he has in the rotation and when you’re always a step or two behind the rest of the league, you’re always at a disadvantage. We’ll revisit Matz when he’s been healthy for an extended period of time and has some value but right now, none of that comes into play. We’ll now sell that shiny 3.05 ERA and fade his 4.69 xERA.
Jeff Hoffman’s surface stats are misleading as hell simply because he pitches half his games at Coors Field. That park cannot accurately measure anything, which is why we have a year-long fade on the chalk there. Every pitcher that takes the mound at Coors with very few exceptions are at the mercy of Park Factors. With that in mind, let’s compare Jeff Hoffman’s road skills to his home skills. At Coors, Hoffman has an ERA of 6.44 with a BAA of .284 over five starts. On the road, Hoffman has an ERA of 1.67 with a BAA of .170 over four starts. Hoffman’s home/road xERA split is 4.89/2.77. In 27 road innings, Hoffman has a BB/K split of 4/30 and has been taken yard just one time. At home over 33 innings, Hoffman has 20 K’s while issuing 12 walks. The discrepancies in Hoffman’s home/road splits go on and on but we’re not going to bore you with more numbers. The bottom line is that Hoffman has been elite on the road and he’s now being offered a price like it’s not relevant when it is very relevant. Scouts have been waiting for the 24-year-old Hoffman's upside and 96 mph fastball to translate into results for some time and our own report from last year said he "should miss more bats than he does," so his sudden explosion in strikeouts is not necessarily a surprise. The time to capitalize on Hoffman’s upside is now while the rest of the market previews his future potential.
DETROIT -1½ +165 over Toronto
Marco Estrada and Anibal Sanchez both have high ERA’s but the similarities end there and it not’s in Estrada’s favor. Sanchez has looked very good under the hood since being recalled from Triple-A. Credit improved feel for his changeup and his outstanding control for his recent gains. While his 5.06 ERA since the second half of 2016 will keep most bettors away, Sanchez's skill foundation during that period profiles him as an intriguing under the radar target. Over his last 23 innings covering four starts, Sanchez has walked just four batters while whiffing 22. His 70% first-pitch strike rate during that period was the best in MLB. A 64% strand rate is the only reason that Sanchez’s ERA is 5.89 but a 3.52 xERA strongly suggests some strong outings are imminent.
While Sanchez has walked just four batters over his last four starts, Estrada has walked 19 over his last four starts, which has led to a WHIP of 1.93. Estrada’s 21% groundball rate over that span is the worst in baseball too. In Marco Estrada, you get MLB’s highest fly-ball rate with MLB’s highest walk rate. That’s a great recipe for disaster but it doesn’t end there. You see, Estrada has the MLB’s worst xERA also since the beginning of June, which now stands at 7.49. Imagine that. When we can fade Estrada in an evenly priced game, you can pencil us in until further notice because Marco Estrada has fallen off a cliff. Who the hell saw that coming?
Chicago -1½ +118 over BALTIMORE
Two wins to open the second half while scoring 19 runs gives the Cubbies some dangerous momentum heading into this one while the Orioles continue to nosedive. With Jose Quintana making his first start in his new digs, we trust the Cubbies to be a little extra jacked up in support of Quintana. Aside from that, Quintana comes into this start in very good form. He has struck out 35 over his past 30 innings covering five starts. Quintana’s xERA over his last five starts is a solid 3.22 and he’ll now face an Orioles’ nine that struggles against lefties. Baltimore’s feast or famine lineup will also chase pitches out of the zone and Quintana is polished enough to get them to do just that. Regardless of whether Quintana shines or not, the Cubs figure to go off on Ubaldo Jimenez.
Jimenez returned to the Baltimore starting rotation on June 18 and it hasn’t been pretty. He has a high ERA (7.24) at home this season and is facing a Cubs offense on the upswing (.849 OPS in July). Jimenez has walked 16 batters over his last 27 innings. His swing and miss rate is down to 7% and his first pitch strike rate is one of the league’s worst at 46%. His 42 walks in 84 frames overall reveals the trouble this starter gets into almost every time out. A starter that falls behind so many batters and ultimately walks plenty is exactly the type of starter we want to fade with a hot offense.
N.Y. Yankees +121 over BOSTON
David Price’s kryptonite = NYY. The Yankees have beaten up the veteran lefty to the tune of a high-contact .934 OPS. His fly-ball stuff flies headlong into the Yankees' wheelhouse, as New York owns the league's best mark (.865 OPS) against fly-ball pitchers. Keep in mind that when the Yanks have beaten up on Price, he was much better then and now he’s just another overpaid starter that will never regain the skills he once had. That’s not to say Price isn’t serviceable because he is. He’s just not the stud that the media wants him to be. Price is 100% better than his numbers show and there will be improvement coming but it might have to wait another start, as current Yanks have 267 combined AB’s against Price and have hit .333 against him with an OPS of .891.
Masahiro Tanaka comes in with a 5.47 ERA after 18 starts, which is another example of why we do not buy ERA’s. Tanaka is a great buy-low target. His stats improved measurably in June (3.94 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), while his skills were some of the best in the game with 10.3 K’s/9 1.6 BB’s/9 and a 54% groundball rate. His ERA would have been even better if not for a fluky 30% hr/f, which was the third-highest hr/f in MLB that month. Tanaka’s 16.8% swing and miss rate, 68% first-pitch strike rate, 33% ball%, 53% groundball rate and low 16% line-drive rate give full support for his ability to have a strong second half. Keep him high in your sights and pounce when he’s offered a price.
TONY KARPINSKI
Phillies vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers -147
The Phils have lost Jeremy Hellickson's last six starts, and I think this is a reasonable price to back the host Brewers. Garza has a 2.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and Garza is coming off his first scoreless performance of the season, allowing just five hits over 6 1/3 innings vs. the Orioles on July 5. It was the deepest he's gone in an outing since May 6, and it was his sixth quality start of the season.
JOHN MARTIN
Washington Nationals +105
It's hard to believe we are getting the better team in the Washington Nationals as underdogs here to the Cincinnati Reds. But that's the opportunity the oddsmakers have presented us, and we'll gladly take it. Homer Bailey has been terrible at 2-2 with an 8.30 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in four starts this season. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts against the Nationals as well. Washington scored 10 runs yesterday and will feast on Bailey again. The Nationals are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.