ASA
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles
Play: Los Angeles +148
The Angels are looking to avoid the home sweep and Parker Bridwell gets the call for Los Angeles in this one. The young right-hander had a rare tough outing in his most recent home start. In his other 4 starts this season Bridwell has compiled a 2.66 ERA. We feel he is being very undervalued here when you consider those numbers. Even though Clay Archer is certainly solid pitcher for the Rays, the Tampa Bay right-hander has given up 32 hits in 24 and 2 / 3 innings over his last 4 starts. Archer has a 4.78 ERA in his last 6 road starts. Tampa has won 4 straight games but the Rays are 15-28 the last 43 times they've entered a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. As a road favorite of -125 to -175, the Rays have gone 9-14. Last, but certainly not least, Mike Trout is back for the Angels and he went 2 for 3 yesterday and we just don't see LA being swept at home to start the 2nd half of the season. Home dog value available in this one and we'll take it!
DAVE PRICE
Cubs vs. Orioles
Play: Cubs -138
The Chicago Cubs made a big move by adding Jose Quintana to their rotation. He becomes one of their staff aces already, especially with the way he has been throwing of late. He has gone 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 5 starts while allowing only 8 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings. He'll be opposed by one of the worst starters in the league in Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 4-4 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 starts this year. Jimenez has gone 1-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Chicago as well.
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Dodgers vs. Marlins
Play: Under 9
I am taking the under in this matchup with Rich Hill going for the Dodgers. Hill continues to dazzle on the mound, conceding a total of only five runs over his last four starts (26 innings). Furthermore, the Marlins have only scored a combined five runs through the first two games of this series, and the under is usually a safe play with Hill on the mound. O’Grady was solid in his Major League debut for the Marlins, and I am confident he can at least limit the damage.
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play will be the Nats and the Reds to land Over the total.
With yesterday's 17 combined runs scored, these teams have now gone 8-3-1 Over the total the last 12 times they have faced one another.
Washington has now played 6 of their last 9 games Over the posted total, and starter Tanner Roark has been a little shaky to say the least the last 3 times he has made the start, as evidenced by an over 11 ERA.
The Over is 5-1-2 the last 8 times Roark has started on the road.
Homer Bailey counters for the home team, and his first start of the season came against Washington at the end of June when the Nats hammered him for 8 runs and 6 hits in under 2 innings of work!
I see the runs adding up today in Cincy.
Play the Nats and the Reds to land Over the total on Sunday.
3* WASHINGTON-CINCINNATI OVER
Eric Schroeder
My comp play is on the Detroit Tigers over the Toronto Blue Jays, and in this game I want you listing Anibal Sanchez over Marco Estrada.
Let's start with Toronto's Estrada, who certainly has not looked like his 2016 All-Star self since June. He has a brutal 9.46 ERA over his past seven starts and has only finished six innings once. He did win his only start against Detroit, in 2015, but that was two years ago. Today will be different.
Instead, let's side with Sanchez, who puts his resurgence to the test against a Toronto lineup that has given him trouble the last few years. He'll be fired up to bring an end to his struggle, as he has a 3.09 ERA in four outings since rejoining the Tigers rotation, including three straight quality starts.
Take the Tigers and list both.
2* TIGERS
Jack Brayman
My free play for Sunday is on the Seattle Mariners, over the Chicago White Sox, and I want you listing scheduled starters Andrew Moore and Derek Holland.
Moore has shown consistency lately, throwing quality starts in his first three outings, while walking just two batters over 21 innings. He's the Mariners’ No. 4-ranked prospect and it looks to me like he’ll be a rotation regular in the second half.
He'll certainly be the better pitcher on the hill today, as Holland has tanked since throwing solid earlier this season, when he posted a 2.37 ERA over the season's first two months. The southpaw has struggled since, posting a sky-high 10.16 ERA since the start of June, including a seven-run outing against the Rockies on July 7.
Take the M's today, as they get it done on the strength of a pitching mismatch.
3* MARINERS
Jeff Benton
Sunday freebie is the Rangers over the Royals once again.
Texas not only has won the first two games this weekend over Kansas City, but they have won all 6 meetings this season over the Royals. The Rangers in fact have claimed each of the past 10 meetings in this series, and they are on a 16-5 overall run in games played against KC.
Kansas City has now lost each of their last 5 dating back pre-break, and they have scored a grand total of just 10 runs during their skid.
Right now Ian Kennedy rates the pitching edge over Yu Darvish, but the way these teams have been playing, I will not make a case for backing Kennedy against a team that the Royals simply cannot beat.
Texas owns Kansas City one more time.
5* TEXAS
Chris Jordan
Go ahead and list the scheduled starters, as I like Chris Archer over Parker Bridwell.
Bridwell has been recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake for this one and is making his sixth start of the season for the Angels. The 25-year-old rookie fired six shutout innings in his last start against the Twins on July 5, and I think he has a chance to limit the Rays at the beginning of this game, but he'll falter late.
Archer limited the Boston Red Sox to a mere three runs over 6 2/3 innings in his last start to earn a no-decision on July 9 at Tropicana Field. And while he hasn't faced the Angels this season, make note he owns a 5-1 record with a 2.48 ERA in six career starts against the them. He will dominate.
Take the Rays and list both.
4* RAYS
DAVE ESSLER
Diamondbacks at Braves
Play: Braves
Shame on me for not taking the Braves last night - they've hit Godley well and are just playing good an confident baseball right now - another home team with no juice. You can't go wrong with too many of those.
Marc Lawrence
Yankees at Red Sox
Play: Red Sox -138
Edges - Red Sox: Price 3-0 last three home team starts versus New York; and 5-2 at night as opposed to 0-2 in the day this season; and 3.79 ERA with 1.11 WHIP at hime this season… Yankees: Tanaka 6.24 ERA and 1.63 WHIP away this season… With Price in strong KW form with 21 Ks and 4 BBs his last three starts.
Bob Balfe
DBacks-105
Arizona has been struggling since before the all-star break, but today has the better starting pitcher on the mound and should break out of their slump. Jamie Garcia has struggled big time for the Braves and if there ever was a time for the DBacks to get back on track it is today.
THE PREZ
Arizona at Atlanta
Play: Under 9.5
Arizona and Atlanta wrap up a three-game post-All-Star game set that is scheduled to see first pitch at 1:35 p.m. on Sunday at SunTrust Park in Cumberland, Georgia. Diamondbacks' right-hander Zack Godley (3-3, 2.58) opposes the Braves veteran southpaw Jaime Garcia (2-7, 4.29).
Godley has impressed in his 11 starts this season. His last turn was against the NL West first place Los Angeles Dodgers and the left-handed perfection of Alex Wood. The Dodgers southpaw outdueled Godley with a three-hit and seven inning gem. The 1-0 victory earned Wood the honor of being the first Dodgers starter to reach 10-0 since Don Newcombe in 1955. Godley gave up one run and three hits in 5 2/3 innings but suffered the loss.
While Godley still has some young pitching warts his potential is criminally high. He’s inducing ground balls at an incredible 60% rate and his ability to get swings and misses in the minors has translated to the "bigs" as he has punched out 65 in 75 innings of work so far in 2017.
Godley's WHIP after his near dozen outings is a stellar 0.95 and the opposition is hitting a mere .188 against the 27-year old second year pitcher.
Jaime Garcia’s final start before the All-Star break was statistically close to his previous three starts in which the Braves lefty had allowed six earned runs in each outing. Garcia's June 29th start against the best offense in all of baseball, the Houston Astros, saw him allow 10 hits, five runs, five punch outs and zero walks. There were, however, several positives in the pre-All-Star break turn vs the Strohs. Garcia didn't issue a base on balls nor did he give up a home run. Garcia, before his current four game slide, had not allowed more than four runs in his first 12 starts.
This getaway day game in Atlanta will be a pitchers dual. The D'Backs' Godley will have the advantage vs the Braves order the first two times through as they have not had the luxury of facing the young righty and the Diamondbacks are slashing a mere (.225/.287/.381/.668) against left-handed pitching this season.
DWAYNE BRYANT
Arizona at Atlanta
Play: Under 9.5
Arizona's Zack Godley owns a decent 7.8 BB%, and his 3.38 xFIP indicates that more strong performances should lie ahead this season. Godley has been very good on the road, sporting a 2.65 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Godley's 59.5% GB% puts him at #6 among the 130 starters who have thrown at least 60 innings this season.
Atlanta's Jaime Garcia's numbers are mostly mediocre at best, but there are a couple things that I like about Garcia in regards to betting Unders with him on the mound. First, I like his high 54.3% GB% that puts him at #12 among the 130 starters that have thrown at least 60 innings this season. Secondly, I like that Garcia has only walked 10 batters in 45 home innings.
I also like that both starters have had 11 days off, so their arms should be "live" today. I expect the All-Star break to really help Garcia, who struggled in his last four starts prior to the break (allowed 23 runs in 22 innings).
Atlanta's bullpen leaves much to be desired, and is one of very few drawbacks with this play. But the Arizona pen more than makes up for it with a solid 3.65 SIERA that ranks 7th in the entire league.
Arizona has averaged a pathetic 1.7 runs in its 11 road games against lefties this season, so it's no wonder that the Under is 8-2-1 in those contests.
Atlanta's offense hasn't fared very good in this situation either, averaging just 3.4 runs in its ten home day games against righties. The Under was 7-3 in those games, including a perfect 5-0 in the last five.
I'm putting my undefeated 9-0-1 Free MLB Total record on the line today with the UNDER in Atlanta.
OSKEIM SPORTS
Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White Sox +118
Seattle right-hander Andrew Moore was a two-time All American at Oregon State before being selected by the Mariners with the 72nd pick in the 2015 Draft. In three Major League starts, a span covering 21.0 innings of work, the 23-year-old has posted a 3.86 ERA, 5.72 FIP and a 5.54 SIERA, together with a non-existent 29.4% ground ball rate (not good when pitching in Chicago's hitter-friendly ballpark).
Seattle's bullpen continues to be a major disappointment, compiling a 4.27 ERA overall and a 4.85 ERA away from the friendly (and spacious) confines of Safeco Field. Let's also note that the Mariners are a woeful 19-41 in the last 60 meetings in this series and 15-43 in the last 58 affairs in Chicago. The home team is 12-4 in umpire Mark Ripperger's last sixteen games behind the plate.
While I am not a fan of Chicago southpaw Derek Holland, he has been serviceable at home this season where he owns a 3.12 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate. Those numbers should improve against a Seattle squad that is just 8-17 in their last 25 games versus left-handed starters.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Orioles
Play: Cubs -138
N.L. Favorites of -140 or more are 15-4 vs A.L. Teams and road favorites in this range off a 5+ run road favored win scoring 10+ runs are 22-5 vs a team off a home dog loss that scored 4 or less runs on 5+ hits like the Orioles. Quintana makes his first start for the Cubs and he has started to pick it up going 3-0 in his last 3 and he has won 5 of his last 6 road July starts. Jimenez for Balty has a 6.84 home era and he is 1-4 with a 5.62 era vs Chicago. Look for the Cubs to take the finale.