Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, July 17

Mike Lundin

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Dodgers -157

The Los Angeles Dodgers opened the second half of the schedule with a 13-7 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks, but the D'Backs tied the series with a 2-1 win in extra innings Saturday night. I like the Dodgers to claim the rubber match Sunday afternoon with Kenta Maeda on the mound.

Maeda (8-6, 2.95 ERA) held the Padres to one run on two hits with a career best 13 strikeouts through seven innings his last time out. Maeda is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five day starts this season and he's held the D'Backs to two earned runs in 11 1/3 innings of work already this year.

The D'Backs turn to Robbie Ray (4-8, 4.81 ERA) who has allowed three runs or more in each of his last four starts, all Arizona losses. Ray is 1-3 with a 4.91 ERA in afternoon starts on the season and he has a bloated 1.56 WHIP overall. The Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

The D'Backs have the second worst home record in baseball at 16-33 and they're 1-4 in Ray's last five home starts. Look for the Dodgers to bounce back with a win today.

Marc Lawrence

Mets vs. Phillies
Play: Mets -160

Edges - Mets: Jacob DeGrom 4-1 versus N.L. East this season, and 2.40 ERA with 1.02 WHIP last seven starts. Phillies: 6-14 last twenty games as a host in this series. With DeGrom in strong KW form with 35 Ks and 5 BBs his last five starts, and 13-6 in his last 19 overall away team starts, we recommend a 1* play in the NY Mets.

Matt Josephs

Blue Jays vs. A's
Play: A's -114

Rich Hill could be auditioning for another team on Sunday as the A's host the Jays. Hill is 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA and a WHIP of 1.092 in 13 starts for Oakland. He has allowed just five runs and 12 hits in his last three starts striking out 25 while walking just seven. Toronto is hitting .229 in 27 games against left-handed starters. They are also hitting around .236 on the road. On the opposite end you have JA Happ who has good numbers, yet I'm not a believer in his stuff. Happ is facing an Oakland team that is hitting .274 against left-handed starters and has a lineup that has hit well after the break. I like the Athletics bullpen better then Toronto's so I'll take the cheap price with the better pitcher at home.

Bob Harvey

Texas vs. Chicago
Play: Texas +132

The Chicago Cubs look to complete a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers when the two teams collide in a matinee affair in the Windy City. Veterans John Lackey and (+125) Cole Hamels will take the ball for their respective teams.

The Cubs (55-35, 47-43 RL) have taken the first two games of the interleague clash between first-place teams, limiting Texas to one run in the process. Chicago has won three straight spanning the All-Star break following a rough stretch leading up to the break, while Texas (54-38, 53-39 RL) has lost 11 of its last 14.

Hamels (9-2, 3.21 ERA) will be making his first start at Wrigley Field since no-hitting the Cubs last July. Overall the veteran lefthander Hamels was 6-for-6 in quality starts in June, going 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA, but he’s failed to get out of the fifth inning in each of his last two outings. Hamels is 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA in eight career starts against the Cubs.

Lackey (7-5, 3.70) is winless in six starts posting an ugly 6.23 ERA over that stretch. He’s allowed 11 runs over 12 innings in his last two starts before the All-Star break and has surrendered seven homers over his last five outings. Lackey is 14-15 with a 5.71 ERA in 40 career starts against the Rangers.

Chicago is 4-0 in interleague games this season and has won six straight against American League opponents dating back to last year.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings while the Cubs are 19-7 to the low side in their past 26 home games. The Rangers are 6-1-2 to the UNDER in their past nine interleague games.

Jesse Schule

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -148

The Tigers have split the first two games of this home series versus Kansas City, but they appear to have a favorable matchup in the rubber match Sunday afternoon. Michael Fulmer will toe the slab for the Tigers, and he's looking to become a 10-game winner. Fulmer (9-2, 2.11 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on five hits over six innings in a win over Cleveland his last time out. The Tigers are 9-1 in his last 10 starts, and he's 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA in three starts at home. He's also been lights out in day games, going 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in five starts in the afternoon. The Royals hand the ball to Yordano Ventura, who has pitched well against the Tigers this season. Ventura (6-7, 5.15 ERA) has lost three straight starts, allowing 14 runs on 17 hits over 15 innings in those games. He's 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two starts against Detroit this year, but both of those games were at home in Kansas City. The Royals have struggled away from Kauffman Stadium, going 12-30 in their last 42 road games.

Bruce Marshall

Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards have had their problems at Busch Stadium this season but maybe those are in the rear-view mirror after Saturday's 5-1 win over Miami. Saturday starter Michael Wacha has seen improved form, with quality starts in five of his last six efforts, as his ERA has dropped almost a full run from 5.16 to 4.36 that span.

Jim Feist

Giants at Padres
Pick: Under

This is a big park, great for pitchers and the Giants are on a 4-1 run under the total. The Under is also 4-1 in the Giants last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Ace Johnny Cueto (13-1, 2.47 ERA) goes here and he picked up his NL-leading 13th win of the season Wednesday after holding the Rockies to just one run over nine innings. He walked one and struck out eight in the 5-1 win. The under is 7-2 in Cueto's last 9 starts vs. the National League West. He faces a weak hitting San Diego team and the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Chase Diamond

Marlins at Cardinals
Play: Marlins

Love the value in this game as the 48-42 Marlins face off with the 47-43 Cardinals. Adam Conley has been a very bright spot for the Marlins 6-5 with a 3.62 ERA he has had some very solid games for the Marlins. Michael Wacha goes for the Cardinals here today and has not had any progression from a year ago if anything he has gone backwards. So we are getting the better pitcher and team at nice plus money I'll take that any day of the week. Cardinals are just 20-27 at home this year another advantage for us. 71% of the public money is backing the home Cardinals and this line has dropped 11 cents.

Larry Ness

Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Cleveland Indians

The Minnesota Twins waited out a rain delay of more than two hours in the top of the inning in a 5-4 win against the Cleveland Indians at Target Field, wrapping up the victory in 11 innings shortly after 12:30 a.m. local time Sunday morning. It was the THIRD time in the last month the Twins have started a game on one day, finished it on the next while also playing a day game the following afternoon. The Twins are 5-0 in those games and will look for their sixth win on Sunday. "I told the guys before we went back out there, 'We've been good in these situations,'" said Molitor. "They came out with some energy and got it done."

The loss for the AL Central Division-leading Indians (53-37) leave them just 3-5 against Minnesota this season, a team with the AL’s worst record (33-57). Note that the Twins are 2-19 against every other team in the Central (excluding the Indians), while the Indians have posted a 24-7 mark against the rest of the division, excluding the Twins. Sunday’s starters are Josh Tomlin (9-2, 3.51 ERA) for Cleveland and Kyle Gibson (2-5, 5.02 ERA) for Minnesota. Gibson has made just 10 starts this season and didn't pick up his first victory until June 28. That said, he owns a 2-0 mark in his last three starts and the Twins have won three of his last four starts (were in line for a victory in the other before a late bullpen meltdown against the Texas Rangers his last time out on July 8. However, Gibson's 5.77 career ERA in seven starts against the Indians is his highest against any AL Central opponent.

Tomlin heads to the mound in search of his 10th victory of the season, looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season his last time out against the Detroit Tigers on July 6. Tomlin was ripped for eight runs (five earned) on seven hits and a walk in just 4.2 innings of work in a 12-2 loss. However, that effort saw Tomlin’s stretch of SIX consecutive starts of three ERs or fewer in six innings end. It’s also impossible to ignore that Cleveland owns a 13-3 record in Tomlin’s 16 starts this season, giving him MLB’s fifth-best moneyline mark at plus-$1041 (@$100/game).

OSKEIM SPORTS

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves
Play: Colorado Rockies +104

Colorado right-hander Jon Gray's fielding-independent metrics suggest a strong second half campaign. Gray toes the rubber with a 4.77 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, but his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he has performed significantly better than his surface statistics would indicate. Gray has been particularly unlucky with men on base as evidenced by his 65.8% strand rate, which is seven percentage points below the league average.

The positives for Gray include a 25.9% K% (9.64 K/9), a 7.9% BB% (2.94 BB/9) and an 18.0% K-BB%, together with a career-best 48.5% ground ball rate. While a 1.22 HR/9 rate is concerning, it's much higher than what Gray has posted in his career (0.72 HR/9 in '14; 0.71 HR/9 & 0.89 HR/9 in '15) and should regress closer to 1.0 HR/9 based upon his underlying skill set. The third overall pick in the 2013 draft is also backed by a surprisingly effective Colorado bullpen that owns a 3.44 ERA and 1.26 WHIP away from Coors Field this season.

Atlanta starter Julio Teheran is being shopped as a #1 starter based upon his 2.96 ERA and 0.96 WHIP this season. However, the 25-year-old is surrounded by red flags, including a 3.91 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP, two fielding-independent metrics that suggest regression is around the corner. Teheran has also been aided by a career-best (and unsustainable) .235 BABIP, which is likely to regress closer to his career level of around .279. A lucky 80.1% strand rate has also helped the right-hander maintain a misleading 2.96 ERA.

Atlanta's bullpen enters today's game with a 4.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP at home and a 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in day games. The Braves are also a money-burning 11-18 in afternoon contests wherein they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game (.226 AVG.; .285 OBP; .614 OPS). The Rockies are actually above-.500 in day games where they are averaging 5.0 runs per game (.260 AVG.; .433 SLG; .763 OPS). Let's also note that Colorado is averaging 5.2 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.278 AVG.; .448 SLG; .784 OPS) and 6.3 runs in its last seven games (.296 AVG.; .351 OBP; .456 SLG; .807 OPS).

Technically speaking, the Braves are a woeful 1-10 in Teheran's last 11 home starts, 1-6 in his last seven starts versus teams with a losing record (0-4 L/4 at home) and 0-10 in his last ten home starts with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs. Atlanta is also 3-25 at home with a total of 7.5 runs or less, 2-9 as a favorite of -150 or less, 16-35 during game 3 of a series, 27-63 following a loss, 17-44 versus National League West foes, 9-23 versus right-handed starters and 8-22 in its last 30 home games versus teams with a losing road record.

With Colorado standing at 10-1 in the last eleven meetings in this series, take the Rockies behind arguably the better starting pitcher and invest with confidence.

BUSTER SPORTS

Mets at Phillies
Play: Under 8

These two teams play the tie breaking game of the series Sunday and we have a good pitching matchup going in todays game. The Mets Jacob deGrom has been excellent for the Mets this year as his 2.61 ERA shows. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.35 ERA with a WHIP of 1. On April 8th deGrom faced these Phillies and pitched 6 strong innings allowing only 1 run. We will see more of the same today. As for Eflin he has been outstanding at home as he has a 1.84 ERA with a WHIP of 0.750. Look for another strong performance from Eflin again at home. Backing our selection is the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and the fact that the UNDER is 5-0 in Mets last 5 overall.

SCOTT SPREITZER

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Play: Milwaukee Brewers +105

Milwaukee will try to make it two straight over the Reds after Saturday's 9-1 win when the Brewers scored all their runs in the first three innings. Zach Davies had one really bad outing against the Dodgers but otherwise the Brewers have won six of his last eight starts, including a 5-2 win at Washington when he gave up two runs in 6 2/3 innings. Davies got off to a terrible start this season but settled down and recorded a 3.81 ERA in May and 2.89 in June. Dan Straily has been inconsistent and Cincinnati has lost four of his last five starts. In his last five games, Straily has allowed 23 earned runs and 27 hits in 27 innings. The Reds have lost eight of their last 10 home games.

Sleepyj

Rangers / Cubs Under 10

A high total for these two here today...We two of the better pitchers in the league on the mound today...Inter-league games often throw a wrench into hitting IMO...Neither team has had a chance to hit either pitcher listed today....Hamels goes for the Rangers and he has been rather solid over his last 6 or 7 starts...Lackey hasn't been very sharp in his 5 or 6 starts, but I feel the break will do him well here....Lackey had a good amount of innings racked up to his credit the first half...Rangers have gone cold losing 4 straight and the Cubs have heated up winning 3 in a row...Rangers will look to stop the bleeding here today...I feel getting after Lackey at home will be rather tough for Texas...A lower scoring game might be in the cards here...Hamels should be confident here at Wrigley as he threw a no-hitter here back in 2015...Rangers might need him to step up as they have only scored 1 run in 18 innings since the 2nd half started...11 runs seems like a bit much here to me.

Scott Rickenbach

Rangers vs. Cubs
Play: Over 10

The number on this total certainly looks big but it is absolutely justified here even though it is Cole Hamels and John Lackey on the mound in this one. The wind is going to be blowing out at a good clip at Wrigley Field this afternoon and both starting pitchers have shown some chinks in the armor lately. Hamels has allowed 5 earned runs in each of his two July starts and both lasted less than 5 innings. Lackey went 6 innings in each of his two starts in July but, like Hamels, he allowed 5 earned runs in each outing. He also has given up 4 homers so far this month and this should be a slugfest based on the weather conditions at Wrigley today. Look for the Cubs lineup to get some revenge on Hamels today after he no-hit them last July as a member of the Phillies. The over is 26-16 in Cubs day games this season. For the Rangers, the over is 9-2-1 in Hamels last 12 starts. All signs point to another one here.