SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNNATI -102 over Milwaukee
Sans one hiccup at home, Zach Davies has pitched quite well over his last eight starts in which he shut out the Cardinals and Mets in eight and six full innings respectively. Davies also allowed just one run against the Dodgers in seven full. He has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts but we are absolutely sure that he’s not worthy of being road chalk. Davies is mostly smoke and mirrors. He brings 89 MPH heat to the park with a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate. Two starts ago, he was tagged for three jacks in one game. On May 27, he faced the Reds in Milwaukee and was tagged for five runs in five innings and gave up two jacks in that game. Davies had a decent stretch for six games but he’s mostly been below average with his results and skills. his xERA of of 5.22 since the beginning of June tells his real story. There are several pitchers than can never be favored on the road and at this point in his career, Davies is one of them.
Davies is favored here because the Reds are going bad and so is Dan Straily. Straily’s current form shows a 7.67 ERA over his last five games started. That provides us with a huge buy low opportunity because we are not buyers of surface stats. Straily is averaging 7.1 K’s/9. That’s not bad. Most of his struggles have occurred against left-handed bats but he’ll face a Brewers lineup that is right-handed heavy. In fact, Scooter Gennett might be the only LH bat in Milwaukee’s lineup this afternoon. With this being a day game after a night game, there is also a good chance that the Crew will sit Jonathan Lucroy and/or Ryan Braun. Pitching at Great American Ballpark, Straily has allowed just 36 hits in 48 innings with an oppBA of just .214. Wrong side favored and we would get on this before Milwaukee’s lineup is posted.
Baltimore -1½ +141 over TAMPA BAY
Jake Odorizzi has seen his hot start melt into numbers more in line with his performance indicators. Recent ugly turns for Odorizzi include a disaster against this foe, the Orioles. In fact, Odorizzi has a 6.40 xERA in three starts against Baltimore this season. Current Orioles own a .293/.335/.490 slash line against the Tampa Bay hurler. And with Odorizzi being a fly-ball pitcher, that’s no surprise, as Baltimore hammers fly-ball pitchers. Given his relative youth, Odorizzi still has time to improve his repertoire but "as-is", the lack of a true swing-and-miss off-speed pitch and below average fastball velocity limit his upside. The Rays are 19½ games back of the Orioles and they are 1-9 in their last 10 games. In other words, their season is over and they’re playing like it.
Dylan Bundy will make his season starting debut here. At this point it is only "Bundy on Sunday," but the back of the Baltimore rotation could be a land of some opportunity for Bundy. He has only been used twice (in 22 appearances) during 2016 on less than three days’ rest, and has not thrown more than three innings or 57 pitches in any of those outings, as the Orioles are trying to maximize his effectiveness while minimizing his innings. This makes a "bullpen game" likely today, as he probably will not get through five innings for the win. Of course, the number four and five starters in Baltimore (Ubaldo Jimenez, Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright) are only averaging 4½ innings in their 17 starts since June 1, so this game may not feel much different. However, Bundy's skills are trending upward over the past 31 days (12.0 K’s/9, 15% swing and miss rate, 95.3 velocity in 12 innings over five appearances), and this is now putting the Baltimore front office on the spot regarding his 2016 innings limit. His total innings count by year since his 2012 professional debut (105, 41, 24, and now 38 year to date in 2016) and his FFF reliability grade both scream caution, and make it probable that there will be only limited use of Bundy in the rotation during 2016, despite skills and results that top those of the other current candidates. Injuries have delayed this top prospect's arrival, with TJS erasing nearly all of 2013-14, and shoulder issue ending 2015 in May. As noted, Bundy’s skills have been strong in a small sample size. His long-term upside remains high, but can he stay healthy? Bundy is likely to be handled with care, so don't count on him making a major impact this year but for this one start, he’s probably a very decent bet against a brutal Rays’ team that can’t hit or that can’t win games.
MINNESOTA +120 over Cleveland
Do we love Kyle Gibson? No. Despite decent stuff and an elite 53% groundball rate, Gibson has underachieved for years. He has trouble putting away hitters once he gets two strikes on them, which has been a thorn in his side for years. Gibson has a decent swing-and-miss rate to augment his strong groundball profile but it has never flourished into anything besides mediocrity. We’ve seen flashes but not consistency. What Gibson comes up with today is anyone’s guess but as a dog at home, he and the Twinkies are certainly worthy of backing.
As long as these prices keep coming in on the Twins, expect them to be on our slate often. Last night’s 5-4 victory by Minnesota was a flattering score to the Indians, as Minnesota had numerous chances to put up crooked numbers in four different innings. The Twinkies had 19 team LOB’s. They had a runner on third with less than two outs on seven AB’s during the game and cashed in just one. The opportunities to score are there, which is a great sign. Minnesota closed out the first half on a hot streak, Mike Tomlin: not so much. Tomlin has coughed up eight HR’s over his last 25 innings. His 2.62 surface ERA on the road this season is not supported by his performance indicators. Tomlin has a 7% overall swing and miss rate and a 6% swing and miss rate over his last seven starts. His greatest asset is his pinpoint control (11 walks in 100 innings) but that’s his only redeeming quality. Tomlin’s surface stats (9-2 with a 3.51 ERA) combined with Cleveland’s record has pushed this price way higher than it should be. We would even go as far as saying that the Twins should be favored. It may also surprise you to learn that Cleveland’s offense ranks 26th out of 30 teams in road OPS and 30th or dead last in on base percentage (OBP) on the road.
Dave Essler
Oakland TT Over 4
Time to change things up a bit - this is the A's TEAM TOTAL which I really like. Oakland has hit Happ fairly well - I liked the A's here but not their bullpen, and Hill hasn't really pitched overly deep (so I also considered F5 and may add that one) - Oakland's pen (much of it) has been used two straight days which was yet another reason why I couldn't fire them for the game. If Toronto does hammer them, we're assure the ninth at bat. They've scored 13 runs in the two games since the break - the total for the game opened 8.5 many places and came down - some books STILL have 8.5, one of which is the Greek - and Matchbook sits on 8o (-111) so I do expect runs - wind blowing out -Paul Emmel behind the plate doesn't suck either - so, we'll run with it.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles @ Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta +9
Los Angeles is playing its third road game in five days, including a physically draining 98-92 overtime win at Connecticut on Friday. Jantel Lavender scored 25 points and Kristi Toliver added 24 points while playing more than 40 minutes as the Sparks had to come back from a 16-point third quarter deficit. Atlanta is home after a three-game road trip, and the Dream is 13-6 ATS its last 19 home games dating to last season. Also, Atlanta has covered the spread 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Sparks, including the last seven in a row. The Sparks won the first meeting 84-75 as an 11 1/2 point home favorite. Angel McCoughtry leads the Dream with 19 points per game and was awarded the Eastern Conference Player of the Week. Look for Atlanta to take advantage of a tired Sparks squad.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Jays and the A's Over the total.
Going a bit against the grain here, as both starting pitchers have turned in some quality work of late.
J.A. Happ is 3-0 his last 3, and Rich Hill is 2-0 his last 3, but while they both have been setting the hitters down, the fact is both Friday and Saturday's games in Oaktown have BOTH played Over the total.
In fact, the Over is 4-0-1 in the 5 series meetings this year, and the Over is 13-6-1 for the Atheltics their last 20 games overall.
I am going to look for the series trends to win out over the pitching trends this time around.
Blue Jays-A's to land Over the total.
1* TORONTO-OAKLAND OVER
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Sunday is the same as it was for Friday, and for Saturday...the Boston Red Sox.
Pretty much the same analysis, the Sox made moves to improve over the break, while it sure looks like the Yankees are going to be sellers before this home stand is over.
Boston has won the first two of this weekend series, and are now 6-2 this season against the Yankees.
New York has struggled in recent meetings against David Price, and while Masahiro Tanaka may be the Yankees "ace", it's awfully hard to win when your team cannot generate offense.
Same scenario on Sunday that was present on both Friday and Saturday.
Go with the Red Sox.
3* BOSTON
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 83-73 run with free picks: Texas (+130) at CHICAGO.
The STORYLINE in this game today - Interleague play is where I'm headed for today's freebie, as I like the Rangers and Cubs contest. After seeing how well Chicago opened the second half of the season, and playing the Cubbies as my free pick yesterday, I'm a little worried they're going to suffer in this one, and will play the Rangers plus the money.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - The key to this one is going to be Cole Hamels, who starts for Texas. He was 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA in June, and though he has allowed 10 runs in 8-1/3 innings in two starts in July, make note he is 6-1 with a 2.09 ERA in nine starts on the road. This marks his first start at Wrigley Field since throwing a no-hitter with the Phillies on July 25, but his road confidence will do him good.
BOTTOM LINE is - As for Chicago starter John Lackey, he has not won a game since June 8, so it's idiotic to believe he should be laying as big a price as he's giving. No way you lay that price, not even as a free play. The smart value is with the Rangers in this one, and by listing both scheduled starters.
3* TEXAS
Brandon Lee
Cardinals -136
This is a great price to back the Cardinals at home. St Louis will send out Michael Wacha against Adam Conley. The Marlins are just 4-20 in their last 24 road games after winning 3 of their previous 4 games and 1-4 in Conley's last 4 road starts. St Louis is 4-1 in Wacha's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record, 24-10 in his last 34 home starts and 4-1 in his last 5 during Game 3 of a series.
Jack Jones
Houston Astros -105
The Houston Astros are on an absolute tear right now. They have gone 32-14 in their last 46 games overall to close in on the Texas Rangers in the AL West race. After a rare loss yesterday, look for them to bounce back with a win Sunday.
Collin McHugh is having a decent season at 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA over 18 starts. He has been better of late with a 3.57 ERA over his last three starts. McHugh is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Mariners in 2016.
Mike Montgomery is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers here. But the fact of the matter is he's unproven as he has only made one start this season. That's why I like the price we are getting with the Astros at nearly even money here.
Montgomery is 0-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last two seasons. McHugh is 17-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last two seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
Tigers -137
Detroit is showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Royals. The Tigers will have a huge edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Michael Fulmer against Yordano Ventura.
Fulmer is 9-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in 13 starts, while Ventura has a mere 5.15 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in 17 starts and an ugly 8.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Tigers are 12-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season.
Power Sports
Chicago vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
I'll side w/ the host Storm here as I'm not sure Chicago deserves to be favored, given a 3-7 straight up road record. The Sky just split a quartet of home games and this will be their first time playing away from home since taking a 87-82 loss at Minnesota back on July 5th. Their last win away from the Windy City came all the way back on June 10th!
The Storm is off a very impressive performance, an 80-51 win over Washington here at home. That was a big game for the franchise as they retired Lauren Jackson's number. They treated her to a season-best performance with the franchise's current best player, Breanna Stewart, leading the way as per usual. Stewart is averaging 19.0 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, both team highs.
A key in handicapping the WNBA this year is that there's been a change in the playoff format. The top eight teams, regardless of conference, make the playoffs. So Seattle, in 10th overall, still has life even in the tougher West. Chicago is 6th, but just a game ahead. The Storm has a positive point differential vs. the East this year while the Sky is just 3-8 ATS vs. the West. This is a double revenge game for Seattle (lost both meetings LY) as well.
SPS Investors
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Pick: San Francisco -1.5
Situational angles play a heavy role in being able to accurately handicap a particular matchup and every once in a while, a contest presents itself that where the advantages of one team so far outweigh that of the other, that the correct side almost seems "too easy". While there are no such things as "gifts" or "freebies" in the sports betting industry, we believe this matchup is as close to one as it gets.
The San Francisco Giants are on the verge of being swept by the lowly San Diego Padres. That is almost unfathomable to think of and we don't believe that is something that they will let happen, especially with Johnny Cueto on the mound, who has owned the Padres in his career. The Giants right hander is having a phenomenal season, posting a 13-1 record with a 2.47 ERA and an even 1.00 WHIP in 131.1 innings of work. He has faced the Padres twice this season and has completely dominated them, tossing two complete games where he has conceded just a single run. Cueto now owns a 7-3 record with a 2.70 ERA in 80 career innings pitched against San Diego.
Meanwhile, the Padres will send newly acquired Edwin Jackson to the mound this afternoon. Jackson was pitching in a limited relief role with the Marlins before being released in early June and will now make his first Major League start of the season against what should be an incredibly motivated Giants squad. The right hander has allowed seven earned runs in 10.2 innings pitched this season giving him a 5.91 ERA to go along with an 0-1 record. Jackson has struggled in his career against the Giants, posting an unimpressive 5.59 ERA with a 2-4 record in 46.2 innings pitched.
This game is a complete mismatch in nearly all facets of play. The Giants will be plenty motivated having dropped the first two games of the series and we don't believe they will have any trouble piling up the runs against Jackson. Meanwhile Cueto should once again be able to contain the Padres offense as he has done his entire career. While there is not much value backing the Giants at these odds, even though we are fairly confident they will walk away with the victory. The best value is with the run-line as the Giants should win this game by more than a single run.
OC Dooley
Pirates +230
For those who follow baseball closely you will remember the major league debut of Pittsburgh’s Chad Kuhl who underneath the bright lights of ESPN Sunday Night Baseball pulled off a stunning victory as a massive underdog against arguably the best pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) in the majors. Once again on a Sunday and up against a high-profile pitcher (Max Scherzer) who a year ago at home tossed a “no hitter” against the Pirates the youngster has a chance to cash another enormous underdog ticket. Not only did Kuhl attend the University of Delaware his home is just a TWO HOUR drive from Nationals Park which means he will have up to 40 different family and friends watching from the stands. With Kuhl on the mound Pittsburgh is UNDEFEATED (3-0) while “road” teams are above the .500 mark on the campaign with Jerry Meals as the homeplate UMPIRE