Stephen Nover
DBacks / Reds Over 9.5
On a hot, muggy, humid day at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park, I see double-digit runs being scored in this matchup.
These are the two worst bullpens in the National League right now and the starting pitching matchup isn't strong either with Zack Godley facing Brandon Finnegan.
Godley is getting the call because Shelby Miller imploded this season. Godley is 4-6 with a 3.62 ERA - at the minor league level this season. The Reds are swinging hot bats scoring 30 runs in their last five games
Finnegan has a 4.18 home ERA in nine starts at Great American Ball Park. The Diamondbacks have scored only three runs during the first two games of this series. They have way too many good hitters to stay in a scoring slump especially at such a favorable hitting site.
It's a plus for the over that Chris Owings is back from the DL while good-field, no-hit Nick Ahmed goes on the DL.
Mike Lundin
Angels +1½
The Los Angeles Angels had opened the second half of the schedule with six consecutive wins before running into the Houston Astros. I like them to keep this a close game and possibly pull an upset following a pair of setbacks at Minute Maid Park.
Mike Fiers (6-4, 4.75 ERA) takes the ball for Houston. He surrendered seven runs on eight hits and two walks over 3 2/3 innings in a 7-2 loss to the Halos on May 27. He's 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three career starts against the Angels and 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in his last four starts overall.
The Angels turn to Tim Lincecum (2-3, 6.59 ERA) who allowed five runs in 4 1/3 frames in a defeat to Houston on June 28, but he's still 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA in 10 career starts against the club. Luis Valbuena and Colby Rasmus are a combined 2-for-21 with nine strikeouts in previous meetings with Lincecum.
The Astros are 17-32 against the run-line home at Minute Maid Park this season, the Halos 28-21 against the run-line on the road.
Marc Lawrence
Chicago at Milwaukee
Play: Milwaukee +150
Edges - Brewers: Junior Guerra 3-0 team starts versus left handers, and 5-2 as a dog this season. Cubs: Jon Lester 1-2 with 10.50 ERA last three team starts. With Guerra 10-4 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in his overall tam starts this season, we recommend a 1* play on Milwaukee.
Bob Harvey
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½
The National League Central division leading Chicago Cubs visit the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of the three-game series. The Cubs and Jon Lester are money line favorites over Junior Guerra and the Brew Crew.
The Cubs (58-38, 28-22 road) have built the best record in the majors in part because of their above average play on the road. The Brewers were less hospitable Saturday, handing Chicago a 6-2 loss as the Cubs managed just six hits. The Brewers (41-54, 24-23 home) are already in wait until next season mode with most of the exciting action happening in the front office. Milwaukee’s brain trust has been working the phones in search of trade partners ahead of the July 31 deadline.
Lester (10-4, 2.89 ERA) turned in a solid performance in his last outing holding the Mets to one run and four hits over 7.2 innings to earn his first win since June 18. Lester is 2-2 with a 2.22 ERA in four starts against the Brewers posting a 2-0 mark. He’s 5-2 with a 3.67 ERA in 10 road starts this season.
Guerra (6-2, 3.06 ERA) is a 31-year old rookie who has been one of the bright spots in a dismal season. He’s notched quality starts in nine of his 14 outings, including four of his past five. Guerra beat the Cubs on May 19, racking up a career-high 11 strikeouts while allowing three runs over seven frames.
Chicago is 23-9 in the past 22 series meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Milwaukee.
The Cubs are 8-0 to the UNDER in their past eight games but just 2-7 to the south side in their last nine road games.
Oskeim Sports
Los Angeles at Houston
Pick: Houston
Houston has now won ten straight games against the Angels following last night's convincing 7-2 victory before the home faithful. Houston is also 16-5 overall in this series, and I expect that domination to continue in light of the fact that the the Astros are 20-6 in their last 26 home games, 22-8 in their last 30 versus American League West foes, 11-4 during game 3 of a series, 53-23 versus right-handed starters and 36-16 in their last 52 overall.
Following a strong outing to start the 2016 campaign, Los Angeles right-hander Tim Lincecum has fallen on hard times. The two-time Cy Young Award winner toes the rubber with a 6.59 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and a 5.47 FIP (4.08 BB/9; 1.88 HR/9; 23.1% HR/FB). Since the beginning of the 2012 season, Lincecum has garnered a 4.76 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so he's clearly not the answer to the Angels' injury-depleted starting rotation.
The last time Lincecum faced the Astros (June 28), he allowed seven hits and five runs in just 4 1/3 innings. The declining hurler owns a triple digit ERA-, FIP- and xFIP- so there is little room for optimism moving forward. Lincecum also has a career-high hard contact rate in 2016 (39.0%), although to be fair he has also been hampered by an unsustainable .436 BABIP (small sample size, however). The veteran's lack of control (9.1% BB%) works well for a Houston squad that is 25-9 versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30.
Houston right-hander Mike Fiers has been very good at home this season, going 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He possesses a 20.8% strikeout rate at Minute Maid Park, together with a 5.6% walk rate and a 3.53 xFIP. Following a rough road outing in his last start, Fiers is determined to bounce back today. "Every time out is a new time to show what I have and convince these guys that I can be one of the five starters," Fiers said. "I'm excited. I need to put down a quality start and just keep it rolling."
Fiers is also backed by a very good Houston bullpen that owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season, together with a 2.68 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home, a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in day games and a 1.77 ERA over the last seven games. In contrast, the Angels' relief staff has a 4.74 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road and a 4.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in afternoon contests.
Finally, Houston is 4-0 in Fiers' last four home starts and 5-0 in his last five starts during game 3 of a series, whereas the Angels are 4-11 in their last 15 division games and have dropped four straight road games. The Astros are also a remarkable 22-5 with umpire Jerry Layne calling balls and strikes!
Art Aronson
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Pick: Tampa Bay
The visitors send southpaw Blake Snell (2-4, 3.11 ERA) to the hill, he comes in off a gem vs. the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing just one hit to go along with nine strikeouts over six shutout innings of work. It was a career high in strikeouts for the rookie, who made it look easy at hitter friendly Coors Field. The home side has called up Jesse Hahn (2-4, 6.49) to make this start. Hahn struggled in the minors and has been a disaster for the big club in his limited action so far this year, getting pounded for 25 runs off 46 hits over seven starts. The Rays are looking to even the series up in the finale of this four game set, consider a second look at Snell in this matchup.
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have split the first two games of the series with the rubber match to be contested on Sunday. The Phillies' best pitcher this season has been Vince Velasquez (8-2, 3.15 ERA) and he takes the mound. Velasquez won his last three starts before the break, despite dealing with some arm tiredness. His first start since the Phillies returned to play after the break came this past Tuesday when he pitched well (7 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER) but did not earn a decision this past Tuesday in Philadelphia's 2-1, 10-inning loss to Miami. The bottom line is that Velasquez has been outstanding since spending nearly three weeks on the DL, going 3-0 (team is 3-1) in four starts, allowing just five ERs over 24 innings for a 1.88 ERA.
Pittsburg’s starting rotation is somewhat of a mess. Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole are the mainstays but neither has been consistent. Jonathan Niese and Juan Nicasio now find themselves in the bullpen plus Jeff Locke will have his start skipped this coming week with off days Monday and Thursday. However, it’s not as if everything is going well with the “new guys.” Rookie Tyler Glasnow left his second career start in the fourth inning with right shoulder discomfort in yesterday’s game. Chad Kuhl, another highly-touted prospect who made his big league debut last month (June 26), was pulled in the first inning of a Triple-A game Saturday for reasons that are unclear. Rookie Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.44 ERA) makes the start this afternoon.
The Pirates are 4-2 in his six starts, after winning his last three (he’s allowed just one ER over each of his last two, going six innings in each with a 9-2 KW ratio). Taillon took a line drive off the head early in his outing against Milwaukee on Tuesday but stayed in the game and worked six innings of one-run ball in a no-decision. "To be honest, I was waiting for it to hurt when I was down," said Jameson, who was placed in the league's concussion protocol but is OK to start in this one. Two good-looking young pitchers square off in this one and I’m backing the home team.
Chase Diamond
New York at Miami
Play: Miami
This early game has the 51-45 Mets at the 53-44 Marlins. Marlins lost yesterday but overall are playing great team ball. 7-3 in there last 10 games but they have Jose Urena on the mound today and he really needs a good start if he wants to stick in this rotation. Last time out he pitched 5.2 allowing just a run and 3 hits against the Phillies. I believe we are getting big value here in this one getting plus money with the home team the better team and the hungry pitcher. Just 34% backing the home Marlins but I am one of them.
Don Anthony
Giants / Yankees Over 9
I believe these two teams are due for a big break out. Yesterday was absolutely embarrassing on how many runners each team left on base. These two pitchers are perfect hurlers to get these offenses back on track. Samardzija is prone to the long ball (that's not a good thing at Yankee Stadium) and has been terrible in Inter-League play. He has allowed 4+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts and currently has an ERA just south of 7 against the Bronx Bombers. It's hard to believe but Eovaldi is even worse against the Giants, He is 1-4 with a career ERA of 13.30. Bullpens were also used a ton yesterday as well. We also have a solid weather pattern as it's going to be hot and less humid with the wind blowing out to RF. We should see a lot of fireworks here.
Scott Rickenbach
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Detroit Tigers +130
This game will get started after the completion of last night's suspended game and I see huge line value here with the underdog. With all the problems currently going on in the White Sox clubhouse it is hard to justify them being a favorite in this price range. The Chris Sale incident has thrown the clubhouse into a frenzy and let's not forget that the ChiSox entered yesterday's action having already lost 8 of their last 9 games. Jose Quintana gets the start for the White Sox here and he has allowed 28 hits in less than 18 innings of work spanning his last three starts against the Tigers. Also, the southpaw has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts. Detroit will have Anibal Sanchez on the mound and he got the 2nd half of the season off to a strong start with his solid outing against the Twins. Though his overall numbers are not impressive this season, Sanchez has struck out 22 in his last 14 and 1/3 innings. Detroit is 22-16 (+8 net units) in day games this season. The White Sox entered yesterday's action 14-21 in divisional games this season. Great line value here with the road dog.
Neil The Greek
Braves at Rockies
Play: Under 12
Anytime you get this Braves team on one of the sides, there is a good possibility for the under to hit. Atlanta's offense is very bad, and they don't have much power to talk about what so ever. Chatwood has taken a few steps backwards, but pitching against this Braves lineup can really help a pitcher's confidence.
DAVE COKIN
RANGERS AT ROYALS
PLAY: ROYALS -115
The Rangers won against the Royals on Saturday. But with Cole Hamels going that was the game they figured to get in this series. I like KC to rebound here.
Edison Volquez is in far superior form to AJ Griffin. The Texas righty is strictly a finesse guy, heat range 85-90, and of late his command has been pretty shaky. These guys cannot survive at the big league level if they aren’t locating.
Volquez has some skewed numbers due to that one inning disaster against the Astros, but he’s been pretty good for the most part, and he’s definitely better at home than on the road. I have no problem trying to beat the Rangers right now and feel as though I’m getting a good enough price to warrant a play today on the Royals.
Ray Monohan
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Play: Tampa Bay -116
The Rays and Athletics finish up their weekend series and Tampa Bay is the move here on Sunday. The Rays typically aren't the first look when they play on the road, but they have the significant edge here against Oakland. Blake Snell gets the ball here and comes in off a solid performance. He struck out 9 against the Rockies, inside a hitters ballpark at Coors Field.
Jesse Hahn counters and he's been an absolute disaster. He struggled in the minors and in his time in the majors he's been a struggle as well. Hahn has allowed 25 runs in a 7 start span, not able to give the Athletics any sort of consistency.
Some trends to consider. Athletics are 2-5 in Hahns last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Athletics are 3-8 in Hahns last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
This is just a nice spot and price here to fade Hahn. He's been a mess in the Majors and likely will struggle here on Sunday.
Brandon Lee
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Play: Tampa Bay -118
Tampa Bay is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the A's. The Rays will send out youngster Blake Snell, who has pitched extremely well since joining the rotation. Snell has a 3.11 ERA in 7 starts and has been even better of late with a 2.60 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He's also saved his best for when he starts on the road. Snell has a 1.53 ERA in 3 road starts. That includes his last outing at hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he gave up 1 hit in 6 shutout innings. I'll take my chances here with Snell out dueling Oakland's Jesse Hahn, who has a awful 6.49 ERA in 7 starts and an even worse 12.19 ERA in his last 3 outings.
ASA
Indians vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½
Vance Worley will be toeing the rubber for the Orioles Sunday afternoon. Though he held the Yankees to 3 earned runs on Tuesday, he certainly did not impress as he walked 4 in an outing that only lasted 4 and 1 / 3 innings! He has a 6.00 ERA in his limited action as a starter this season and he has given up a homer in all 3 of his starts this year. Corey Kluber will be on the mound for the Indians in this one and the over is 7-2 in his last 9 starts overall. On the season the over has cashed in all 5 of his last 5 road starts. Kluber is off of a strong road start but previously had given up 17 earned runs in his last 4 starts. He's facing an Orioles lineup whose confidence is building with three straight wins and 29 hits and 14 runs in those 3 games. The Indians offense should have no trouble against an unproven Worley and the over is 19-12 in Indians day games this season and 17-9 in Orioles day games this year.