Harry Bondi
KANSAS CITY (-115) over Minnesota
Today, we go against the Twins, who send out a struggling Hector Santiago to the mound. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA in his last three starts and on the road for the season he is 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. The Twins have had limited success against left-handers this season and today they get their very first look at southpaw Travis Wood. Royals chase Santiago early and get the “W.”
Bob Balfe
Rays -105
The Rays have the better starting pitcher on the mound this after noon and their slugging percentage has been great against right handed pitching. Kevin Gausman has walked too many batters this year which will give Tampa the opportunity to put up a ton of runs.
ASA
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Brewers +113
Miami has lost four straight games and is only 14-23 on the road this season. Although Daniel Straily has solid overall numbers for the Marlins this season, he has a 4.93 ERA in road starts! Junior Guerra toes the rubber for the Brewers in this one and he is off of a rough start but that was on the road. At home this season, Guerra has a solid 3.51 ERA. The Brewers have won 4 straight home games and the Marlins have lost 6 of their last 7 road games. Overall, Miami has averaged only 6.2 hits per game in their last 10 games while the Brewers reached double digits in hits again yesterday! Milwaukee has had at least 10 hits in 4 of their last 9 games and they've averaged 9 hits per game during this stretch. Home dog value available in this one and we'll take it!
Jimmy Boyd
Nationals vs. Cardinals
Play: Cardinals +120
I like the value here with St Louis as a decently priced home dog against the Nationals. Washignton is getting a ton of respect from the books here with their ace Max Scherzer on the mound, but the Cardinals have a legit ace of their own throwing in Carlos Martinez, who has a strong 2.88 ERA in 16 starts and is 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 8 home outings. On top of that, St Louis is playing the better baseball right now. The Cardinals have won 4 straight and 6 of 7 overall, while the Nationals have lost 3 straight and 5 of 7.
Jack Jones
Marlins vs. Brewers
Play: Marlins -120
The Miami Marlins have lost the first two games of this series to the Brewers and four straight overall. They should be highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to avoid the sweep, and they should get it with their best starter on the mound.
Daniel Straily has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season. He has gone 5-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 16 starts with 90 K's in 89 innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts. Straily has never lost to the Brewers, going 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.926 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Junior Guerra pitched very well last season, but he has not been on his game since returning from injury in 2017. Guerra is 1-2 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in his last three outings.
Straily is 13-2 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last two seasons. The Marlins are 17-5 in their last 22 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Brewers are 32-74 in their last 106 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philly/N.Y. METS Under 9½
This year, MLB teams’ are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is out of whack compared to previous seasons. As a result of so many runs being scored, totals are inflated. As a result of this market betting and cashing more over bets than ever before, totals are inflated. In previous years, rarely would you see games at Citi Field with a total of 9 or 9½. It’s not just Citi Field either. Every day, there are inflated totals and it’s time to try and take advantage.
Nik Pivetta comes in with a 1-4 record and a 5.40 ERA after nine starts. On the road, Pivetta is 1-3 with a 6.67 ERA but what those numbers don’t tell you is that Pivetta has started a slew of games at extreme hitter’s parks like his own and he’s alo pitched at Texas, at Atlanta and and most recently at Arizona. Pivetta has a seven-inning, four-hit shutout gem to his name against the Red Sox. In five of his nine starts, he’s allowed three runs or less. Pivetta also have 49 K’s in 45 innings. Pivetta needs to better acquaint himself with the concept of strike one. Poor control is the reason he’s not excelling. His strikeout rate is impressive and his groundball rate is trending strongly in the right direction and is now up 10 percentage points to 44% over his last six starts. This is all about control for Pivetta and as long as he’s not issuing free passes, he’s difficult to score on.
New York Mets RHP Robert Gsellman (hamstring) was placed on the 10-day disabled list Wednesday, June 28, because of a strained left hamstring. Gsellman's misfortune is Rafael Montero's good fortune. Montero had a solid start on June 25 and, after a terrible start in 2017, has been pitching well since being recalled from Las Vegas. Over 12.1 June innings, Montero had a 2.96 xERA and a 10.9 K’s/9. Earlier in 2017, his control was a major issue, but in his latest incarnation, it's down to very acceptable levels. If the control improvement is for real, Montero will be an instant asset. Montero has 35 K’s in 32 innings. His swing and miss rate is an outstanding 15% over his last 12 MLB innings. Montero has the stuff to dominate and he’ll now face a Phillies team that goes up there swinging. What we have here is two pitchers with high surface ERA’s but under the hood both have the ability to whiff a lot of batters and toss a gem. What we know for sure is that based on this market and what they see in regards to to actual ERA’s, we’re getting a very beatable number, which prompts us to step in.
Cleveland -1½ +145 over DETROIT
After a rainout on Friday, the Indians and Tigers played a doubleheader yesterday. They split the two games but after a long couple of days, we’re not going to side with the superior team in an evenly priced game. The Indians have advantages all over the place in this matchup, which includes, speed, power and bullpen, not to mention that they’ve seen Justin Verlander about a million times. Justin Verlander has made more starts against the Indians (50) than any other opponent. Current Indians have 393 combined AB’s versus Verlander and now they’ll see him after he threw seven full innings (111 pitches) against the Royals in his last start. Verlander won that game after giving up three in the first but it’s been almost two full months since he won back-to-back starts. Aside from that, things certainly aren't trending well for Verlander. He’s walked 44 b batters in 92 innings and another fly-ball % uptick raises his HR risk. While stable velocity is a positive sign, Verlander’s WHIP of 1.45 (1.65 in his last five starts) and his 34%/30% groundball/line-drive split scream out that big trouble is looming.
Michael Clevinger has made just nine starts this year but now would be the time to start investing him before his stock rises. Clevinger was a big winner in the minors with an 11-1 record and 2.92 xERA. He also has a great strikeout rate uptick in this, his second full year back from TJS. He has dominated lefties too. Clevinger has 55 K’s in 48 frames for Cleveland so far this season. He has a 15% swing and miss rate to go along with a nifty 1.19 WHIP but over his last five games, that WHIP is lower. Clevinger’s xERA of 3.55 is rock solid and with Cleveland’s vastly superior bullpen behind him, we’re confident that we’re on the right side here.
N.Y. Yankees +101 over HOUSTON
Not often are the Yankees taking back an inflated price but they are here because they’re playing at Houston. We now get Luis Severino plus a tag against Mike Fiers and you can instantly pencil us in for that. Fiers started against the Yanks back in the Bronx in May and was tagged for four runs in five frames. He was also tagged for two bombs. Fiers’ stock is high because he has a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts but two of those starts was against Oakland. Fiers is having a good year but he’s nothing more than an average pitcher on a bit of a roll. Fiers was removed from the rotation not long ago but injuries forced the Astronauts to insert him back into the rotation. His new found success is something we’re not buying because he’s been so ordinary for so long. Fiers' new pitch mix (he’s gone away from his four-seam fastball --57% of pitches in 2016; 38% in 2017) in favor of more secondary offerings, has resulted in better numbers but MLB hitters catch on quickly so it’s only a matter of time before Fiers’ starts giving up crooked numbers again.
Luis Severino has taken a huge step forward in 2017 and is showing no signs of slowing down. He owns ace-like stats against RH batters (2.47 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), which have been backed up by an elite 2.27 xERA. His stats and skills against lefties have been really good too (3.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 3.27 xERA). You would be hard pressed to find a pitcher in better from than Severino. He has a sick BB/K split of 24/107 in 94 frames. His groundball rate of 56% is a top six mark in MLB and his line-drive rate of 17% is a top four mark. Severino’s filthy stuff has led to a 14% swing and miss rate and 23% rate in his last start. Severino’s skills are top-notch. Everything in his game is trending right but he’s being billed here like it’s a fluke. It’s not. This is a true stud at the top of his game that should NEVER be taking back a tag against Mike Fiers.
Brandon Lee
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Play: Red Sox +104
Too good of a price here to pass up on Boston. The Red Sox have won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall as they go for the sweep of the Blue Jays on Sunday. I like their chances with the red-hot Drew Pomeranz on the mound. Pomeranz has a sizzling 1.53 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is facing a slumping Toronto offense that is averaging just 2.9 runs/game and hitting a mere .205 as a team over their last 7 games. Boston is scoring 5+ in their last 7 and should be able to put up a decent number here against the Blue Jays JOe Biagini, who is 2-6 with a 4.93 ERA in 10 starts overall and has a 9.75 ERA and 2.167 WHIP in his last 3 outings.
John Martin
Rangers vs. White Sox
Play: White Sox -114
Jose Quintana is starting to finally pitch up to his talent level after a rough start to 2017. The left-hander has been virtually unhittable in his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 innings against the Yankees, Twins and Blue Jays. Quintana is also 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in five starts against the Rangers, and he has given up just 2 runs in 14 innings in his last two starts against them. Tyson Ross has pitched to a 6.13 ERA in his three starts for th Rangers this year. The White Sox are 11-1 in Quintana's last 12 starts against AL West teams and 6-0 in his last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Dave Price
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +122
The San Francisco Giants are starting to get too much love from the books now that they've won 5 straight games. They should not be road favorites over the Pittsburgh Pirates, who will be hungry to not get swept here by the Giants. Trevor Williams is pitching very well of late with a 4.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his last 3 starts for the Pirates. Jeff Samardzija is 3-9 with a 4.63 ERA in 16 starts this season, 1-5 with a 4.99 ERA in 9 road starts and 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA in his last 3 starts. Samardzija has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 innings for a 9.00 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Pirates. The Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
Jim Feist
Nationals at Cardinals
Play: Nationals -123
Washington has a powerhouse offense and its ace on the mound. Nationals righty Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.06 ERA) is the major-league leader in strikeouts (151) and WHIP (0.78), and has given up only six earned runs and 22 hits over his last seven starts spanning 54 innings. The team is 23-8 in Scherzer's last 31 road starts. St. Louis is #20 in runs scored and 2-7 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Washington is also 37-17 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Prop Specialists
Mariners vs. Angels
Pick: Over 4.5 1st 5
Based on our suite of Machine Learning algorithms, we have identified a 5* investment opportunity on the 1st 5 innings totals market in this game. Our rated run differential compared to the 4.5 run total for the 1st 5 innings of this game is 0.83 runs. This repesents a fair value price of -147 on the OVER and a 10.8% edge on the market's price of -110
Frank Jordan
San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh +117
San Francisco had lost five in a row and 12 of 13 before going on this current five game winning streak winning big on Friday, 13-5, and close yesterday, 2-1, the Giants look for their second straight series sweep. San Francisco is throwing Jeff Samardzija who is 3-9 on the year with a 4.63 ERA and coming off a win last time out. The road has been unkind to Samardzija who is 1-5 on the road with an ERA of 4.99 and has allowed 12 of his 16 homeruns on the road. Pittsburgh is throwing Trevor Williams who comes into this game 3-3 with a 4.83 ERA. Williams is eight games at home which includes five starts is 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA, but overall in June he is 1-0 with a 4.34 ERA. Look for Williams to feed off the home faithful picking up a win by out-dueling Samardzija 4-3 as the Pirates take the finale of this series and end San Francisco's winning streak.
Andre Ramirez
Yankees vs. Astros
Play: Under 8½
The pitching matchup for this one should be a good one. Severino had a terrific start his last time out but ended up with a no-decision in a game the Yankees led in the ninth before losing in walk-off fashion. Severino and Fiers had been on a roll in June before getting tagged with the loss in his last start by the A’s. Severino has 109 strikeouts in 94 innings pitch, while Fiers has 74 strikeouts in 83 innings pitched. This will be a low scoring game. I have the Astros winning 4-2
Chris Jordan
Hit the Cincinnati Reds yesterday, as I promised you they would beat the defending World Series champion Chicago Cubs, behind the MLB-debut of Jackson Stephens.
Today I'm giving you the Reds as my free play, as I like Cincy right-hander Tim Adelman to outduel Chicago-starter Jake Arrieta.
Adleman has been rock solid of late, allowing three or fewer runs in six of his last seven outings. And in his lone start against the Cubs this season, he allowed two runs in six innings on April 21 at Great American Ball Park. Back on his own mound, I think he dominates the struggling Cubbies.
He'll get run support, as Arrieta has been far too inconsistent this season, and will struggle on the road. Just look at his last two starts, as he held the Marlins to one run over seven innings and was efficient on June 22. But in his next outing against the Nationals, he walked six over four-plus innings. He's 4-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 11 starts while toting a suitcase.
Take the home team here, and list both.
4* REDS
Eric Schroeder
I nailed my 30 Dimer on the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, and now I'm giving you them as my free play in the late game on Sunday, as they're going to finish off the Washington Nationals.
The Redbirds are slowly creeping up the National League standings, as they're 3.5 games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and a half-game back of the second-place Chicago Cubs. They've won four in a row, seven of 11 and are now 22-20 at home this season after last night's 2-1 win over the Nationals.
The Nats, who are sitting comfortably atop the N.L. East, have lost three straight and have dropped six of 11. Tonight they'll be neutralized by a pitching staff that ranks seventh in the bigs with a 4.05 ERA. That number improves at home, as St. Louis' 3.27 ERA at Busch Stadium is the second-best home ERA mark in the majors, second only to the Los Angeles Dodgers (2.81).
Look for Yadier Molina to continue his tear at the plate, as he extended his hitting streak to a season-long 16 games during Saturday night's victory. It is the longest active streak in the majors.
Look for another well-balanced effort by the Cardinals, led by the likes of Molina at the plate, and Tommy Pham doing it offensively and defensively.
2* CARDINALS