Jack Brayman
My free play for Sunday is on the Houston Astros against the New York Yankees, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starters: Mike Fiers over Luis Severino.
I'll be brief with this analysis, as I've been impressed with how well Fiers has improved, and looked over his last six outings. After allowing 18 homers in 46.2 innings during his first nine starts, Fiers in on a 4-1 tear with a rather stingy 2.43 ERA since May 30. In that span - 37 innings of labor - he's allowed no home runs.
Meanwhile, I think the powerful Houston lineup that leads the majors with a .283 batting average will get to Severino, who is 0-1 with a 4.74 ERA over his last three starts. And while I know he’s gone at least six innings in seven straight starts, but he also fared poorly in his last encounter with the Astros, on May 14.
In that start, Severino lasted just 2.1 innings, after being tagged for three earned runs on six hits, three walks and a hit batter. He could melt under pressure, and in the brutal humidity in Houston.
Take the Astros and list both.
3* ASTROS
Brad Wilton
Saturday comp play release is the Over in the Rangers-White Sox finale.
Jose Quintana has been tough as nails of late, as has not allowed a run to score in either of his last pair of starts. Over his last 3, he has allowed just 2 runs to score in 20 innings pitched, but even if he limits the big bats of Texas, I still see this one heading Over the total.
The first two in this weekend series have played Over the posted price, and 5 in a row in the series since last year have also landed Over the total.
The Rangers have scored 7 runs or better in 5 of their last 8 games, while the White Sox have played Overs in 5 of their last 8 games contested.
Tyson Ross figures to give up a few, as he has allowed 10 runs thus far in his 14-plus innings pitched, and 2 of his 3 starts have played Over the total.
Texas-Chicago to land Over.
3* TEXAS-WHITE SOX OVER
Jeff Benton
Both meetings this weekend have played Under the total, and this one will too!
Atlanta has played 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 games Under the total, and they will send "road warrior" Julio Teheran to the hill to pitch in today's finale. Teheran is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA on the road this season, and he has seen the Under bank in each of his last pair of starts, and 3 of his last 4 starts overall.
Oakland has played their last 3 games Under the total, and they have held Under in 6 of their last 8 home games.
Sean Manaea has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts this year.
I think we see a pitching duel today to close out the Braves-A's series.
Play Under.
4* ATLANTA-OAKLAND UNDER
Dave Essler
Twins / Royals Over 10.5
Wood hasn't started a game in forever, and has bad numbers even out of the pen. Santiago has been getting killed - the Twins pen clearly sucks (see yesterday), and the Royals' pen just isn't that good, either. It's one of those we have looked as "too many ways it does and not enough it doesn't" - since I see both teams scoring, but either one could get most of them. It's warm in KC with a decent breeze helping out - so, there's that.
In the other games:
I don't think the Mets ought to be -150.
Pass the Reds/Cubs game - I don't like Arrieta, so it's Reds or nothing. POSSIBLE add.
If the total is going up in Pittsburgh I think you have to like SF, inasmuch as I am trying to avoid road teams.
Not sure what to make of the ESPN game - MAYBE the over -
We've made money on Marquez, and at +130 or whatever I lean Colorado.
Classic case of a decent pitcher getting beaten by a familiar foe - Padres RL or nothing.
No clue in the Jays/Sox game. I am always afraid of Pomeranz and Biagini is generally good but seems to suck when we jump on - possibly the over if the roof is open.
No clue in the Tigers/Indians game - they like the over and it's hard not too - 9 would have been much better. Cleveland if you made me just because they're pen is that much better.
Guasman sucks - I will never bet on him. I may not always bet against him, but I'll never bet on him. The over again, probably, because Cobb is much better at home where the Trop holds his fly balls.
Pass the Rangers' game, period.
If and when I fade Houston it's when Fiers starts, so NYY or pass.
Paxton is good, but -150 on the road is not.
Under in the A's game - the big park holds Teheran's fly balls and Oakland wins.
Wunderdog
Cleveland @ Detroit
Pick: Detroit +111
These teams split a doubleheader on Saturday, and Detroit has Justin Verlander on the mound today. He hasn't allowed more than three runs his last six starts, including a 5-3 win over Kansas City on Tuesday. Verlander gave up three runs in seven innings against the Royals and walked only one with six strikeouts. The right-hander has been at his best at Comerica Park where he is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA this season, and the Tigers have won 20 of Verlander's last 28 home starts dating to last season. Detroit has won seven of the last 10 meetings with Cleveland, which is a turnaround from last season, and five of the last seven at Detroit. Mike Clevinger faced the Tigers twice in 2016 and gave up five runs on eight hits in four innings.
OC Dooley
White Sox -115
Chicago veteran Jose Quintana will be popular at the trade deadline considering that he has a SUB-ONE ERA (0.90) spanning his most recent three trips to the mound. Yesterday's home loss by the White Sox was a bit surprising as their starter Derek Holland had spent EIGHT YEARS as a part of the Texas organization. Today marks the finale of a 10-game homestand for the White Sox who after enduring a "road heavy" slate in the season's first-half will hit the highway going into the All Star Break. In LINEUP information there is a chance that Chicago RBI leader Avasail Garcia will return from an injury that has kept him sidelined most of the week. For the FIRST TIME this season Texas is resting infielder Roughned Odor while Rangers slugger Nomar Mazara also is NOT in the starting lineup
Bruce Marshall
Marlins at Brewers
Pick: Marlins
The Marlins usually have their best chance in games pitched by Dan Straily, who will be called upon to be the stopper and prevent Miami from getting swept this weekend at Milwaukee. The Marlins have won the last three starts made by Straily, who has allowed just 3 runs over 17 1/3 IP that stretch. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Junior Guerra has faltered, his ERA jumping from 2,45 to 4.54 in his last four starts.