DAVE COKIN
ANGELS AT RED SOX
PLAY: ANGELS +102
Matt Shoemaker has been remarkably unlucky in terms of picking up wins, but the Angels righty has been on a terrific roll going back several starts. Shoemaker has had eight consecutive starts that have graded out as average or better, with five of those in the strong category. He hasn’t gotten much run support and has also been hurt by bullpen failures, but I would definitely put Shoemaker in the go with category right now.
Sean O’Sullivan is getting another chance as the Red Sox #5 starter, but there’s really nothing in his history to suggest he can do the job. The data in O’Sullivan makes it pretty clear that he’s Quad-A material, and the fact Boston is having to turn to him here speaks volumes about the state of their maligned pitching staff.
From a team perspective, the Halos are a lousy club, and the insane Saturday outburst was obviously a fluke. But I do like the idea of playing on a team that should be feeling some relief off a needed blowout win.
The Red Sox are not playing well at all, and while I don’t think firing manager John Farrell is going to fix the pitching problems, it’s looking as though a change in the dugout is becoming a real possibility heading toward the All Star break.
I made Shoemaker the favorite in this game, so I’m happy enough to be able to grab even minimal plus money here and I’ll take the Angels.
Sleepyj
Atlanta +1.5 -130
I can get the Braves here at home in primetime +1.5 for just -130....I'll take that all day...Wisler hasn't been great, but something tells me he gets on his game today..Conley has been average, but not rock solid...I'm playing the line here with a home game for the Braves...Braves hit very well yesterday and they can win again if Conley struggles here..I'll grab the +1.5 here without hesitation.
Mike Lundin
Tigers vs. Rays
Play: Over 8½
The Tampa Bay Rays managed to slow down the Detroit Tigers bats somewhat on Saturday, but still lost the game 3-2. The Tigers have scored a total of 33 runs through their past four games, and I think we'll see plenty of action over home plate in today's matchup.
Chris Archer (4-11, 4.76) takes the ball for Tampa Bay. He's allowed three earned runs or more in each of his last six starts. He's struggled with his command lately issuing nine free passes in his last three turns alone and a 1.45 WHIP for the season is not something you would expect from an ace like Archer. He's posted a 3.72 ERA in five career games against Detroit and has struggled with Miguel Cabrera (4-for-10).
The Tigers turn to Mike Pelfrey (2-7, 5.02 ERA) who won his last start, against Miami, despite allowing 12 hits over 5 1/3 innings. The Tigers provided him with plenty of run support in the 7-5 victory, and he'll most likely need it today as well. Pelfrey is 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts versus Tampa Bay and has struggled with Evan Longoria (4-for-8.).
Over is 5-1 in Tigers' last six overall and 4-1-1 in the last six meetings with the Rays.
Jack Jones
Toronto Blue Jays +122
The Cleveland Indians finally had their 14-game winning streak come to an end Saturday with a loss to the Blue Jays. After a streak like that, a team is usually deflated once it finally comes to a close. Look for the Indians to suffer a letdown here Sunday.
Of course, the Blue Jays are in good position to pick up a win behind J.A. Happ, who is 10-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.234 WHIP in 16 starts this season. Happ is also 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in four career starts against Cleveland.
Corey Kluber is a solid starter at 8-7 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts this season. But he has had his fair share of struggles against the Blue Jays, going 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in three career starts against them.
The Indians are 0-6 in Klubers last six starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Blue Jays are 10-1 in Happ's last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Toronto is 8-1 in Happ's last nine home starts overall.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -145
Edges - Rays: Chris Archer 3.00 ERA at home as opposed to 6.66 ERA away this season. Tigers: Mike Pelfrey 1-6 with 5.09 EA and 1.80 WHIP away team starts this season, and 0-3 team starts versus A.L. East foes this season. With Pelfrey in off a phony ‘inside-out’ win in which he pitched 5.3 innings while allowing 12 hits, 4 runs and 1 walk in a 7-5 win at Miami on Tuesday, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.
Jim Feist
Orioles vs. Mariners
Play: Over 9
Baltimore has the No. 5 offense in baseball in runs scored, Seattle is No. 9. Baltimore is also 8th in on-base percentage and tops in slugging. The Over is 17-5-1 in the Orioles last 23 games vs. a right-handed starter. Baltimore goes with Ubaldo Jimenez (5-7, 6.64 ERA), who has struggled. Jimenez has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but the Orioles, without any ready alternatives, will be forced to continue leaning on him in a starting role for the time being. The team is 8-1 over the total when he starts. The Over is 20-8 in Mariners last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Hisashi Iwakuma goes for Seattle with a 4.34 ERA and batters hitting .282 off him. The 10-3 in the Mariners last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Scott Rickenbach
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
Pick: Chicago Cubs
The Mets will have Noah Syndergaard on the mound but he has given up 8 earned runs on 15 hits in the 9 innings spanning his last two starts. He also walked 3 in just 3 innings in his most recent start. He'll be facing a hungry Cubs team looking to avoid a 4-game sweep. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs and the veteran southpaw is 5-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his road starts this season! Lester has gone 7 innings or more in each of his last 4 road starts and he has given up a total of ONLY 3 runs in those 4 outings away from home. The Cubs are 30-16 the past three seasons when on the road with a money line price in the range of -100 to -125. The Cubs are 24-13 in day games this season! The Mets are 4-9 in Sunday games this season. The Cubs are averaging 5.6 runs per game in road games this season while the Mets are averaging just 3.2 runs per game this season in their games against left-handed starters.
Larry Ness
Pittsburgh Pirates at Oakland Athletics
Pick: Oakland Athletics
The Pirates had lost 12 of 14 games away from home going into the team’s Wednesday contest at Seattle. However, the Pirates salvaged a split of that two-game series with an 8-1 win and then Friday and Saturday, have beaten the A’s 7-3 and 4-2 (10 innings) to give the team a much-needed three-game winning streak. The Pirates look to complete a sweep of the A’s today at Oakland in the finale of their three-game interleague series, while also evening their record at 41-41 on the season. Pittsburgh has outscored the opposition 19-6 during its winning streak but Sunday’s starter Francisco Liriano (4-8, 5.33 ERA) hasn’t earned a win since May 24!
Liriano bested Arizona 12-1 in that one but has since made six starts, going 0-5 (team is 0-6) while posting a 7.12 ERA. He’s allowed 36 hits (including five HRs) and 24 walks during that stretch which has covered 30.1 innings. This from a pitcher who has had ERAs of 3.38 or lower in each of his past three seasons with Pittsburgh, going a combined 35-25. Getting the nod for Oakland is Daniel Mengden (1-3, 2.81 ERA), who is coming off his first career victory, an 8-3 triumph at San Francisco in which he gave up two runs and four hits in 7.2 innings. It marked the first time in four outings he did not serve up a home run but the rookie has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his four major-league starts.
Mengden will be facing Pittsburgh for the first time while Liriano has had mixed results against Oakland in his career, going 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 15 appearances (13 starts / teams are 6-7). Menden has 26 strikeouts and just nine walks over 25.2 innings and his confidence has grown with each major league start. "Every time you step on the rubber and get out there you gain experience and confidence and trust in yourself, as well," said Mengden, who will try to prevent the Pirates from sweeping the three-game series. "Getting used to the atmosphere, the type of hitters you're facing. The more and more you do it, the easier it gets, and I guess the more confidence you'll get. And I've been throwing well, so that always helps with the confidence and trusting my stuff. It's a lot of fun."
It's been 40 days since Liriano won a game and while that streak will eventually end, my bet says that will NOT be the case here!
Jimmy Boyd
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
Seattle should have no problem securing a win at home Sunday against the Orioles. The Mariners have won 3 straight and 6 of their last 8 overall, while Baltimore has dropped 3 straight and are not near as strong on the road as they are at home.
The Orioles will send out Ubaldo Jimenez, who is 1-5 with a 8.37 ERA and 2.155 WHIP in 6 road starts. Jimenez also has an ugly 5.05 ERA in 6 career starts against the Mariners. Seattle counters with veteran Hisashi Iwakuma, who has a strong 2.51 ERA and 0.802 WHIP in 4 career starts against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 8-21 in their last 29 road games against AL West opponents and 0-10 in Jimenez's last 10 road starts after 2 or more consecutive losses.
Chase Diamond
Rangers vs. Twins
Play: Twins +130
This is a great money making chance for us as the 52-30 Rangers take on the 26-54 Twins. The Twins won easy for us yesterday 17-5 and in doing so I really think it hurt the Rangers bullpen today. Kyle Gibson of the Twins has been pitching much better ball and the Twins bats are on fire and Cole Hamels is due for a bad outing as he has time to time. Texas has a look ahead series against Boston and might just be ready to get out of town today. 89% of the public money is backing the road Rangers and this line has moved around 20 cents a huge move by Vegas as they try to get more and more cash on the Rangers for the public slaughter.
Brandon Lee
Angels vs. Red Sox
Play: Angels +102
Los Angeles laid it on the Red Sox in yesterday's 21-2 blowout win. Boston is clearly not playing well at the moment, as they have dropped 8 of their last 12. The Angels are in prime shape to bring home another win on Sunday, as they send out the red-hot Matt Shoemaker against Sean O'Sullivan. Shoemaker has a 2.14 ERA over his last 6 starts, as he continues to pitch lights out after a miserable start to the season. With Boston's offense in a bit of a funk right now and O'Sullivan having a 7.84 ERA and 1.839 WHIP in 2 starts, there's too much value here to pass up a play on the Angels.
Brad Diamond
Indians vs. Blue Jays
Play: Indians -125
Granted lefty Happ (10-3, 3.70) has been awesome this season for Toronto, but last time out up in Colorado the veteran allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Granted the Blue Jays out hit the Rockies that night and took back a win increasing Happ's last three starts to 3-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Toronto is 7-3 in his last 10 team starts, while the lefty has allowed 3.4 runs per game in his last five sets. However, when you pull out his scoreless 7 innings versus Philadelphia his RA jettison's to well over four. The Indians looking to bounce back from their loss yesterday in Rogers bring RHP Kluber (8-7, 3.50) who is arriving off one of best outings down in Atlanta surrendering just 2 earned runs on 3 hits in 8 innings of work. Kluber has been super L3 with a 2-1 record carrying a solid 2.86 ERA. As you know the Indians had put together an incredible winning streak before losing to Toronto, and their "lineup" ability to put consistent pressure on the opposing units has been critical this season. What I like most about this encounter, the Indians ability to show with positive results after scoring 5 runs or more...22-4 (6-0). In addition, they cross the lines Sunday on a super 11-0 run as a chalk. With the Indians winning the last 8-of-9 on the road, back the more talented unit to survive.
Dave Essler
NY Mets +110
Many of the same reasons we took them Friday. A home team, a good home team at that - a pitcher coming off a bad outing (on the road to a good team) - a pitcher who is 7-2 at home the last two years - allowing opposing hitters to bat .196. So yes, people will line up to take Lester and the Cubs to avoid a sweep. Not me. The Cubs have struck out 11+ times in each of their last four games. Granderson or no Granderson - I'm taking the Mets. If the Cubs win - so be it - but Syndergaard at home at anything less than -130 is almost an auto-play.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. METS +110 over Chicago
On Friday night it was deGrom over Hammel in a wipeout. Yesterday it was Colon over Arrieta in a narrow victory. The Cubbies were favored both games and they’re favored again here. Chicago has now lost three in a row and five of eight. Their only three wins over that span occurred against Cincinnati. Chicago is a very good team but because of their great start and popularity, you would once again be paying a serious premium to wager on them here and that is something we never recommend doing.
The pitching matchup is obviously a marquee one. Jon Lester remains reliable, consistent, and effective. Lester continues to pound the zone early in the count, as his first-pitch strike rate has edged up and is nearing elite territory. The strikeouts are coming at an excellent rate as well, which puts his command well above our threshold for an effective starting pitcher. Lester has a BB/K split of 24/102 in 103 innings. With excellent control, a K-per-inning, a 48% groundball rate and "AAA" reliability, Lester is among the best. However, Noah Syndergaard is better.
Syndergaard has 115 K’s in 94 innings with just 15 walks issued. That’s as good as it gets. He has an overall 54% groundball rate and a 60% GB rate over his last three starts. His swing and miss rate is unmatched at 18%. Clayton Kershaw may be the best pitcher on the planet but Noah Syndergaard is damn close to being his equal and the fact that he’s a dog in his own barn is once again bordering on lunacy.
We should address the elephant in the room however. Syndergaard (elbow) is denying reports that he's pitching through a bone spur in his right elbow. “I do not. No. My arm feels great. It's amazing what a little anti-inflammatories can do,' Syndergaard said”. He said there is nothing structurally wrong with his elbow. We believe him.
Colorado +120 over LOS ANGELES
This might be the biggest overlay on today’s board. Jonathan Gray is one of only seven starters in MLB who can claim the same great skills both with the bases empty and with runners on base. He has been victimized by a terrible and extremely unlucky 14% strand rate when guys are on base. Gray’s 4.83 ERA keeps his value way down but his xERA of 3.04 is one of the best in the league. Gray has 83 K’s in 76 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He is one of only five pitchers that have a groundball rate of 50% or more with more than a strikeout per inning. Gray is an absolute ace that is priced like J.A. Happ here. What’s even more ludicrous is that he’s priced like J.A. Happ against a guy making his first start in over a year!
Brandon McCarthy surprised everyone in 2014 with both skills growth and a random stretch of good health. The latter ended early in 2015, as he underwent TJS in late April, projecting for a mid-2016 return. That projection was accurate and now McCarthy is 32-years-old. McCarthy has hardly been scintillating in his rehab as suggested by the seven earned runs allowed in 13 innings over four games. And his longest start has been five innings. But McCarthy has posted an 11/3 K/BB while keeping the ball on the ground during his rehab. And in the immediate wake of Clayton Kershaw’s DL stint, the Dodgers are looking for an experienced arm that might eat five innings and keep them in a game or two. This line is so flawed because not many understand how good Jonathan Gray really is and how ordinary the Dodgers offense really is. This is a must bet.
Pittsburgh +131 over OAKLAND
Francisco Liriano has a 5.33 ERA after 15 starts. His ERA and xERA are both high because his walks are way up. Liriano has walked 54 batters in 83 innings and no pitcher can survive a walk rate that high. However, Liriano is working with the best pitching coach in the majors. If he’s throwing strikes, he’s elite. We have seen him go through stretches like this in the past before it gets corrected for a period of time. Nobody knows when that’ll happen but we’re willing to gamble that he’s better today because the price is worth the risk. Liriano has 83 K’s in 83 innings with a 50% groundball rate. He also has a plethora of experience and when he’s on his game, he’s an ace. Now he’s a significant dog against a rookie with four MLB starts to his name. If that doesn’t motivate Liriano, nothing will.
In two of his four starts thus far, Daniel Mengden has walked seven batters in 13.1 combined innings. The A’s have lost three of his four starts to Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Texas. He does have 26 K’s in 25 frames but both Milwaukee and Cincinnati are big strikeout teams and neither saw him before. Four starts into his career and there is now plenty of film on Mengden. Don’t get us wrong, as this kid has lots of upside not to mention a very good minor-league pedigree. However, he was in Double-A in April and now he’s a favorite over Liriano in June. Even if Mengden is GREAT today, it may not matter if the A’s are unable to score runs. When Mengden lost to Texas 2-1 on June 16, Colby Lewis took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against them. It’s also worth noting that Mengden has been taken yard in every start with the exception of his last one at San Francisco’s AT&T Park at night. Forget the rookie for a second, as the A’s aren’t good enough to be priced in this range against the Pirates.
ATLANTA +132 over Miami
Adam Conley drew some buzz from scouts this spring. He has followed that up by posting a 3.90 ERA after 16 starts but it's a mark that doesn't come with much underlying support. Stamina might be the culprit, as Conley’s skills diminish drastically the second and third time through the lineup. We’re also seeing an increase in Conley’s wildness. There are other things we’re not crazy about either. Conley brings a 1.36 WHIP into this game. He throws a lot of pitches to get through innings and that’s a bad sign that suggests he can’t put away hitters. He appears to be tiring and he’s overpriced against an Atlanta team that is playing some pretty good ball right now.
As the biggest underdog on yesterday’s board, Atlanta whacked Jose Fernandez and the Fish, 9-1. The Braves have won 10 of their past 17 games. Three of the losses over that span occurred against the red-hot Indians. The Braves have also scored 22 runs over their last three games so they are swinging some hot sticks right now and they figure to be even more jacked up playing at home on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
Whether you are a bettor or a fantasy player, put Matt Wisler on your radar immediately. Wisler had a strong pedigree when he arrived, ranking among the top 100 prospects in the Minor League Baseball Analyst in both 2014 (#37) and 2015 (#32). His transition to the majors was a tough one though, as he posted a 4.71 ERA in 20 appearances (19 starts) in 2015. He's lowered his ERA to 4.16 thus far in 2016 and it’s looking better each month. Wisler was the 2015 preseason No. 1 prospect for San Diego before he came over to the Braves in the Craig Kimbrel trade. The 6'3", 195-pound right-hander has a good feel for pitching with great control and a mix of pitches that already includes three plus ones. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and he has a great slider in the mid-80s and a mid-70s curve that is effective. Wisler has now made 36 starts to begin his career and for the first 30 he was not generating enough K’s or swing and misses. However, that is starting to trend in the right direction and it’s a significant positive sign moving forward. Wisler has struck out 22 over his last 27 frames. He struck out nine over six innings in his last start with a 15% swing and miss rate. Wisler was obliterated by left-handed batters last season, but they have had much less success against him so far in 2016. It has taken Wisler some time to adjust to hitters at the highest level. However, his confidence is so much higher now than it was before now that he realizes he belongs and that he’s good. As un underdog in this price range, Wisler and the warm Braves offer up all the value here.
Gabriel DuPont
Complimentary play, I look to improve on my 77-69 run with free picks: Chicago at N.Y. METS (+110)
The STORYLINE in this game today - The New York Mets have taken the first three of this four-game series with the Chicago Cubs. The Mets' stagnant offense has suddenly come alive, as they carry momentum from a 4-3 win last night, into this game today. And I think this is pure value with the underdog Mets.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - Timing is what is key for the Mets right now. This is the type of baseball they need to be playing. These last three days have been a very good indication of what the Mets are capable of and the way we have they need to play the rest of the summer. After all, these are the defending National League champs.
BOTTOM LINE is - aRight now the Mets believe they can compete, and they're doing it against the league's best team. The confidence the three wins in this series has sent throughout the clubhouse has been huge cause there's no better way to do it than to beat one of the best teams back-to-back-to-back days.
5* N.Y. METS