Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is Cleveland and Toronto to go Over the total from the Rogers Centre.
After playing 5 straight Unders in the series, including a Canada Day 19-inning 2-1 final, the Indians and the Blue Jays finally got into their hitting shoes on Saturday, as they played well Over the posted total.
Let's look for another Over here in Sunday to conclude the weekend set with Corey Kluber and J.A. Happ on the mound.
Both pitchers sport respectable ERA's for the season, but both have also been on the hill for more Overs than Unders of late, as Kluber has seen 4 of his last 6 starts land in the Over column. That includes each of his last 3 road assignments.
Happ has seen 4 of his last 5 starts play Over, and the Over is 5-2 in his home starts this season.
The runs were aplenty yesterday, and they will be again today.
Tribe-Jays Over on Sunday.
3* CLEVELAND-TORONTO OVER
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play is for Cole Hamels and Kyle Gibson to keep matters under control and for the Rangers and Twins to close out their weekend series with a low-scoring game.
Saturday saw the Twins go nuts at the plate, but Sunday will be a different story as Cole Hamels takes his miniscule 0.44 ERA for his last 3 starts into action at Target Field. Hamels owns a season ERA of just 2.60 and is in search of his 10th win of the season versus just one defeat. Expect the southpaw to be tough on the Minnesota hitters this afternoon.
Kyle Gibson has turned things around of late, and pitches this game off 7 scoreless innings over the White Sox for his first win of the season his last time out. Gibson has seen 2 of his last 3 starts, and 5 of his last 8 starts overall hold Under the total.
There were plenty of runs scored on Saturday, but I don't see a replay of that uprising happening today at Target Field.
Rangers-Twins to hold Under.
1* TEXAS-MINNESOTA UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is on the Seattle Mariners, who have won three straight and are completely taking it to the Baltimore Orioles on their road trip. The O's haven't been able to generate anything in the Pacific Northwest, and are now mired in a three-game slide.
The Mariners, however, are showing off their power to one of the league's most dangerous offenses. Yesterday Seattle stroked 16 hits - including five homers - in beating the Orioles 12-6.
This is a Mariners team that hobbled back to Seattle nine days ago, having lost six in a row and falling into third place in the American League West. But with last night's win, the Mariners improved to 42-39 and have won six of eight on their current homestand.
Even more momentous, in six games against the AL East-leading Orioles this season, the Mariners are 5-1.
I'll look for the sweep here, and lay the home chalk.
1* MARINERS
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the Oakland Athletics to get things done against the Pittsburgh Pirates, as I'm playing the pitchers in this one, with Daniel Mengden to get it done over Francisco Liriano.
Oakland's young right-hander has just four starts in his career, but if there is one thing he does not resemble, it is a rookie. He is in after picking up his first win, last Monday against the Giants, after pitching into the eighth inning for the first time in his young career.
I think this kid is a star on the rise, and he'll be at his best to close the first half of the season, looking to cement his spot in the rotation.
Meanwhile, Liriano can't seem to find the strike zone, which was evident in a loss to Los Angeles on June 27. A normally durable Liriano lasted a mere 4 1/3 innings and was tagged for five runs (four earned) on four hits while walking five and striking out three.
I think this is a great spot for Mengden, who will outperform Liriano.
3* OAKLAND
Matt Josephs
Rockies vs. Dodgers
Play: Rockies +120
Brandon McCarthy makes his first start since April of 2015 as the Dodgers host the Rockies. McCarthy is coming off a rehab start in Rancho Cucamonga where he allowed four runs over five innings. He is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five career starts against Colorado. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are a combined 11-for-27 against the veteran. The Rockies were hitting .305 over their previous seven games before Saturday. They are 17-13 in the daytime putting up over five runs per game. Jon Gray has some great stuff for the Rockies with 83 strikeouts to just 24 walks in 13 starts. Gray had 10 strikeouts in five innings at home against these Dodgers back on April 22nd. The Dodgers were hitting just .228 at home before Saturday night and are struggling offensively in terms of batting average. Colorado's bullpen actually has decent numbers on the road. I think there's pretty good value with the road team.
Power Sports
San Francisco vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
All of a sudden, the Giants aren't playing that well anymore. They lost yday here in Arizona by a score of 6-5. As good as their record may be (51-32), there are some legit holes that I can poke here. Their 19 one-run wins are the most in all of baseball. For the sake of comparison, the Cubs (who are "just" 1.5 games better in the standings) have a scoring differential that's 100 runs better than that of the Giants. I'm also concerned a bit about San Francisco's rotational depth. With a lesser starter on the bump Sunday, I'll recommend the D'backs.
What you need to know about Arizona this year is that they have performed shockingly bad at home. Their record here, after last night's win, is still only 14-29. The only team w/ a worse home record is Atlanta. But I expect things to start turning around for the home team at Chase Field. I just don't see them continuing to allow 5.6 rpg here. Last night's late rally should produce some "momentum" and they have split 10 games this season with the Giants.
Albert Suarez will be pitching today for the Giants. In five starts, he has a 4.39 ERA. He's allowed exactly three runs in every start, but only one time has he lasted longer than six innings. His last start resulted in a 13-11 loss to the A's. The only reason that Suarez is even in the rotation is an injury to Matt Cain. Meanwhile, D'backs starter Robbie Ray has a nice track record vs. SF, including six shutout innings back in April. Ray has a 1.64 ERA in two career starts vs. the Giants and even more impressive is that he ranks seventh in the NL w/ 10.42 K's per nine innings (third best among lefties).
Harry Bondi
PITTSBURGH +140 over Oakland
Just can't see any reason why the A's should be this much of a favorite over anyone right now. Oakland has lost three in a row, is 11 games under .500 for the season, has a losing record at home (17-25) and has won just five of 13 inter-league games this season. With two shaky starters toeing the rubber, this one may very well come down to the bullpens and one of the few bright spots for Pittsburgh this year has been its relievers, who have combined for a 3.43 road ERA.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -130
The Dodgers will have a fresh pitcher on the mound making his first start of the year against a Rockies lineup that can hit, but they also can’t pitch or play defense. It is tough to hit a pitcher when you have not seen many if any looks from him. The Dodgers are a better team from top to bottom and should get the home win.
Bruce Marshall
Tigers / Rays Over 8.5
After the lower-scoring game on Saturday, expect these two to be involved in more of a slugfest this afternoon at The Trop. Remember Detroit scored 20 combined runs in the first two games of this weekend set, and Tigers starter Mike Pelfrey has been erratic. So, too, has Tampa Bay's Chris Archer, which goes for the entirety of the Rays' disappointing staff.
Chip Chirimbes
Giants at Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks
Very quietly the San Francisco Giants have come up upon the Cubs as they both have 51 wins as they have won 23 of their last 32 on the road. Arizona who is just 14-29 at home second worst only to Atlanta broke a six-game losing streak with their come-from-behind victory last night. Robbie Ray (4-7, 4.68 ERA) will start for Arizona and he notched his first win of the season over the Giants in April striking out eight in six scoreless innings.
Wunderdog
New York @ Los Angeles
Pick: Under 161.5
This is a battle of first-place teams. This is a rematch as Los Angeles is the one team the Liberty haven't beaten this season. The previous game played to a 79-72 score that went to overtime at Madison Square Garden on May 21. These are two of the top three defensive teams in the league, and the UNDER is 8-2 when the Sparks face a team with a winning record, and the UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. New York matches up well under the glass and has more than enough to keep this a defensive battle.
BUSTER SPORTS
Texas Rangers at Minnesota Twins
Play: Texas Rangers -140
The Twins ambushed the Rangers yesterday, laying a 17-5 beat-down on them. Today we believe things will be much different. That result sets us up for one of our Buster Sports Systems plays. In Cole Hamels we have one of the best pitchers in the league going today. He has been incredible in his last 3 starts having a unheard of 0.44 ERA with a WHIP of 0.968. On the road this year he has been just as amazing having a 1.44 ERA with a WHIP under 1. As for Gibson he has been up and down again this year, just like he has been for his career. At home, Gibson has a 4.40 ERA with a WHIP of 1.337 this season. After being embarrassed by the Twins yesterday there is payback in order for the Rangers.