Free Picks for Sunday, July 30th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Marc Lawrence
Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Play: Diamondbacks +112
Edges - Diamondbacks: Walker 5-3 with 2.70 ERA away team starts this season; and 7-3 as a dog this season… Cardinals; Lynn 2-6 day team starts this season… With Walker in sharp KW form with 22 Ks and 5 BBs his last four starts, look for more of the same here today. We recommend a 1* play on Arizona.
Ben Burns
Mets vs. Mariners
Play: Under 9
Seth Lugo (5-2, 4.10 ERA) comes in off a win against the Padres on Tuesday, giving up four runs (three earned) over six innings. So far Lugo is 4-1 with a 4.68 ERA on the road and 4-0 with a 4.44 ERA in all “night” games. Seattle counters with flame-thrower James Paxton (10-3, 2.84) who went seven scoreless agaisnt the dangerous Red Sox on Monday, allowing four hits and no walks while recording 10 K’s for his tenth victory of the year (71 of his 103 pitches went for strikes.) Paxton now has a tiny 1.48 ERA over his last five starts and he has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s 6-2 with a 2.36 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this year. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that runs will likely be at a premium in this one.
Zack Cimini
Baltimore vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -128
The Orioles broke a three game losing streak in impressive fashion on Saturday. Sunday they’ll face Rangers pitcher Martin Perez to finish off the last leg of a six game road trip. Perez will be looking to bounce back from a poor start against the Orioles on July 19th. With offensive support they’ll get the job done.
Will Rogers
Cubs at Brewers
Pick: Cubs -118
The set-up: The Cubs have been terrific since the break and now a two-game swing in the NL Central standings will be at stake when the Milwaukee Brewers host the first-place Chicago Cubs for the finale of their three-game series on Sunday. The Brewers won 2-1 on Friday, with the Cubs returning the favor with a 2-1 win last night, in 11 innings. Chicago leads the season series 6-5, outscoring the Brewers 59-55, and the first of eight remaining head-to-head meetings will go a long way toward deciding a division champion. The Brewers can close within one-half game of the Cubs with a win on Sunday, while Chicago can leave town with a 2 1/2-game advantage over Milwaukee by claiming the rubber match.
The pitching matchup: John Lackey (7-9 & 4.97 ERA) takes the mound for Chicago and Zach Davies (12-4 & 4.45 ERA) for Milwaukee. Lackey has won his first two starts following the All-Star break, allowing three runs over 10 innings (2.70 ERA). He is 5-3 with a 3.49 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers (teams are 7-5), which includes him losing his only meeting against them in 2017, surrendering four runs on seven hits over six innings back on April 17 of a 6-3 Milwaukee win. Davies has been Milwaukee's most successful pitcher in 2017, having won each of his last five decisions and posting a 2.54 ERA over his last six starts. Davies has split a pair of starts against the Cubs this season and is 4-3 with a 4.62 ERA in seven all-time starts.
The pick: The key here is two-fold. One, while Chicago has won 12 of 15 since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has dropped 10 of its last 13 to go from 5 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs to 1 1/2 back. Then there is Davies' 6-0 & 2.80 ERA record in 11 road starts (Brewers are 8-3), compared to his 6-4 home record and 6.45 ERA in 10 starts. Cubs win! Cubs win!
Jim Feist
Mets at Mariners
Pick: Under
This is a big park, great for pitchers. Seth Lugo is on the mound for the Mets, allowing 3 earned runs or less in four straight starts. Seattle is 10-4 under the total against a right-handed starter. Seattle has James Paxton (10-3, 2.84 ERA) going, their best pitcher. Paxton logged seven dominant shutout innings during Monday's win over the Red Sox. He allowed four hits, issued no walks and recorded 10 strikeouts to pick up his 10th win of the season. Paxton was masterful, as he threw 71 of his 103 pitches for strikes and tied his career-high single-game mark of 10 strikeouts. And the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Seattle.
Stephen Nover
Rays at Yankees
Play: Rays
Jacob Faria is one of my favorite young pitchers. And I'm going to back him at this nice 'dog price against another young pitcher, Jordan Montgomery.
I like Montgomery, too. But not as much as Faria, who has a 2.67 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and has held batters to a .222 average while turning in eight quality outings in his nine starts. Tampa Bay is 4-1 in Faria's five road starts. The Yankees have never faced Faria giving him an element of surprise advantage.
The Yankees are hot with six straight victories. They are going for a series sweep and own the highest home winning percentage in the American League.
So you know why the oddsmaker has shaded New York so high.
But two of the Yankees' wins in this series have been by a run in games that could have gone either way. Aaron Judge hasn't done anything since the All-Star break with 23 strikeouts in 53 at bats and only nine hits.
The Rays have some underrated punch with Lucas Duda - who has hit two homers in two games for the Rays since coming from the Mets filling in for injued Logan Morrison - Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria and Steven Souza Jr.
Jack Jones
Braves vs. Phillies
Play: Braves +100
After losing the first two games of this series to the Phillies, including a blown save last night that sent it to extra, the Braves should be highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 Sunday. I look for them to get the job done at a nice underdog value here.
R.A. Dickey has held his own this season, going 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 starts. He has been much better of late, going 2-2 with a 2.47 ERA in his last seven starts, giving up just 12 earned runs in 43 2/3 innings. And Dickey is 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 14 career starts against Philadelphia.
Vincent Velasquez has struggled much of the season thanks to injuries and the propensity to give up the long ball. He is 2-6 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.475 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.649 WHIP in six home starts. He has allowed 14 homers in 59 innings.
The Braves are 4-0 in Dickey's last four starts vs. a team witha losing record. The Phillies are 16-42 in their last 58 games vs. a right-handed starter. Philadelphia is 2-9 in Velasquez's last 11 home starts.
Jimmy Boyd
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Cubs -112
Chicago is showing great value here as a short road favorite against the Brewers in Sunday's series finale. Milwaukee's Zach Davies comes in 12-4, but is far from deserving of such a strong record. Davies has a 4.45 ERA and 1.432 WHIP in 21 starts. That's pretty similar to Cubs starter John Lackey, who is 7-9 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.334 WHIP in 19 starts. Lackey has a 3.37 ERA in his last 3 starts and has pitched well against the Brewers. Given the direction of these two teams out of the All-Star break, my money is on the defending champs to come away with a win.
Larry Ness
Baltimore vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -113
The 50-53 Texas Rangers are trying to decide if they are a wild card contender in the American League with the trade deadline approaching, (currently they are 4 1/2 games back of the final spot, although five teams are head of them). Pitching ace Yu Darvish is the biggest name in the rumor mill of players who could be moved by Monday's July 31 deadline. Texas beat the Orioles 8-2 at home on Friday but fell 4-0 last night. Baltimore's season has hit the skids after a 22-10 start, as the Orioles are 49-54 as the teams get set to play the rubber match of this three-game series on Monday. Baltimore is fourth of five AL East teams (7 1/2 back) and 5 1/2 games out of a wild card spot with six teams ahead of them.
Wade Miley (4-9, 5.69 ERA) will start for Baltimore and Martin Perez (5-8, 4.67 ERA) for Texas. Miley has been getting roughed up of late, allowing 17 ERs on 21 hits over 15.2 innings of his last three starts (9.77 ERA / he's 0-2 and the team 1-2). It's been a HUGELY disappointing season for the lefty, who has allowed at least four ERs in eight of his last 10 outings. He allowed five runs in five innings of a July 20 game at home against Texas (Orioles won 907 but Miley had a no-decision). He is 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA in eight career starts against the Rangers (teams are 3-5).
Perez has taken he loss in each of his last two turns, although he was solid against Miami on Monday, allowing three runs and seven hits in seven innings. In fact, he's been mostly solid since June 10, allowing three ERs or less in five of his last seven outings. However, one of the two poor starts in that stretch came at Baltimore on July 19, when Perez was reached for five runs in six inning of an 11-2 loss. Perez is 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA in five career starts vs. Baltimore (team is 2-3).
Miley's recent woes are real and the bottom line is, that the Orioles are just 27-44 since their quick start, which is .380 baseball. Take Texas.
SPORTS WAGERS
Cincinnati -101 over MIAMI
Dan Straily is 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA after 21 starts this season. Dan Straily is also one of the luckiest pitchers in the game so this now becomes a case of selling his skills and not his results. Straily’s xERA is 5.61. His misleading 3.84 actual ERA is a direct result of a high 77.3% strand rate. All of Straily’s skills are trending wrong too. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts, covering 28 innings, is down from 11% to 9%. Over those 28 frames, Straily has 17 K’s. His groundball/fly-ball ratio of 24% grounders and 53% fly-balls over that same stretch is horrific. His average velocity over his last five starts is also down a full tick from 90 MPH to 89 MPH. There is nothing positive going on here in Straily’s profile. After throwing 191 innings last year and now 117 this year, we’re seeing strong signs of fatigue. He’s the second best starter in this matchup and it’s not close.
For all you fantasy players out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. For all you bettors out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. Before we continue, we’ll just remind you that Castillo pitches half his games in the smallest ballpark in MLB. Outside of Coors, players call it the best hitting park in the majors while Dan Straily pitchers at one of, if not the best pitcher’s park in MLB. Castillo comes in with a 1-4 record after seven starts to go along with his 4.05 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.28 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. If he pitched half his games at Marlins Park, his xERA might be 2.28 or thereabouts. Luis Castillo has 45 K’s in 40 innings. His swing and miss rate is 12% and rising. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is elite at 58%/9%/32%. His 9% line-drive rate would be tops in the league if he qualified but with just 40 innings pitched, he does not qualify. Castillo averages 96 MPH on the gun too.
We understand that the Reds are the coldest team in baseball but that is why Cinci is the underdog here. If they were the hottest team or even playing around .500 over their past 20 games or so, this game would be priced much differently. We now get the superior pitcher and one with filthy stuff at a price that’s worth backing. The Marlins have the Nationals in town beginning tomorrow for a three-game set and could absolutely be prepping for that series. It would not surprise us to see a regular or two from the Fish get a day off but regardless, we’re getting great value here on Castillo. The Reds are not this bad and Dan Straily is very beatable.1:10 PM EST. Dan Straily is 7-6 with a 3.84 ERA after 21 starts this season. Dan Straily is also one of the luckiest pitchers in the game so this now becomes a case of selling his skills and not his results. Straily’s xERA is 5.61. His misleading 3.84 actual ERA is a direct result of a high 77.3% strand rate. All of Straily’s skills are trending wrong too. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts, covering 28 innings, is down from 11% to 9%. Over those 28 frames, Straily has 17 K’s. His groundball/fly-ball ratio of 24% grounders and 53% fly-balls over that same stretch is horrific. His average velocity over his last five starts is also down a full tick from 90 MPH to 89 MPH. There is nothing positive going on here in Straily’s profile. After throwing 191 innings last year and now 117 this year, we’re seeing strong signs of fatigue. He’s the second best starter in this matchup and it’s not close.
For all you fantasy players out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. For all you bettors out there, Luis Castillo is the bargain of the day. Before we continue, we’ll just remind you that Castillo pitches half his games in the smallest ballpark in MLB. Outside of Coors, players call it the best hitting park in the majors while Dan Straily pitchers at one of, if not the best pitcher’s park in MLB. Castillo comes in with a 1-4 record after seven starts to go along with his 4.05 ERA. However, his xERA is 3.28 and xERA does not take park factors into consideration. If he pitched half his games at Marlins Park, his xERA might be 2.28 or thereabouts. Luis Castillo has 45 K’s in 40 innings. His swing and miss rate is 12% and rising. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is elite at 58%/9%/32%. His 9% line-drive rate would be tops in the league if he qualified but with just 40 innings pitched, he does not qualify. Castillo averages 96 MPH on the gun too.
We understand that the Reds are the coldest team in baseball but that is why Cinci is the underdog here. If they were the hottest team or even playing around .500 over their past 20 games or so, this game would be priced much differently. We now get the superior pitcher and one with filthy stuff at a price that’s worth backing. The Marlins have the Nationals in town beginning tomorrow for a three-game set and could absolutely be prepping for that series. It would not surprise us to see a regular or two from the Fish get a day off but regardless, we’re getting great value here on Castillo. The Reds are not this bad and Dan Straily is very beatable.
TORONTO -1½ +166 over L.A. Angels
In game one of this series, Toronto was a -165 favorite over Parker Bridwell and didn’t come close to winning. Yesterday, the Jays were in the -140 range over Yusmeiro Petit and blew a 3-0 and 5-3 lead before losing 6-5. Now, against the Angels worst starter, Jesse Chavez, the Jays are the smallest price of the three games, which prompts us to make a move.
With a 35%/28%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates as a starter, Chavez has very little chance of success at this park. In fact, with that profile and pedestrian stuff on his best day, Chavez has very little chance of success at any park. This is a 33-year-old journeyman that has been moved from the rotation to the bullpen more than a few times his entire career. Chavez has never fared well for an extended period and his skills are getting worse. With an ERA/xERA split of 5.35/5.72 and a 3% swing and miss rate over his last four starts, he’s not well suited to pitch in a MLB rotation. He'll likely continue to toil in pitching's No Man's Land. Chavez is a swingman who's more valuable to his big league club than he is to anyone else. He should be in the +150 range and not in the +113 range.
32-year-old Cesar Valdez has made two starts with the Blue Jays and we absolutely love his mound presence and the ease he appears to be pitching with. Valdez doesn't have dominant stuff but he throws lots of pitches, including a fastball that barely reaches 90 mph and a change-up, a sinker and a slider. His fastball has a heavy sinking action that helps keep his home runs on the low side. He also doesn't hurt himself by issuing walks, so his WHIP has been quite good in recent years. With batters being unfamiliar with his repertoire, he’s going to provide value for a few starts and he’ll now face an Angels’ lineup that can be tamed on their best day. The Blue Jays stock was high to begin this series after they defeated Oakland four in a row but today it has sunk below where it should be.
Colorado +106 over WASHINGTON
This is the first game of a double-header so listed pitchers, Erick Fedde and Kyle Freeland must start. Freeland’s batted ball profile of 58% grounders, 16% line-drives and just 27% fly-balls after 116 innings is off-the-charts good. We’d like to see more K’s than his 72 recorded but a pitcher that can induce such weak contact and so many groundballs is worth his weight in gold. Kyle Freeland’s 2.78/3.44 ERA/xERA since the beginning of June is one of the best splits in the game over that span.
Earlier this week, we played a couple of first time starters and paid the price for doing so when Luke Weaver was beaten by the Diamondbacks and Chris Flexen (Mets) looked awful in losing to the Padres. Those two losses on the same night alerted us to try not to make that mistake again and also prompted us to look deeper into it.
Like all other crops, rookies go through years of feast and famine; 2016 was a particularly strong sample for pitchers, not because of its stars (Fulmer, Maeda, and Gray top the list) but through its unusual depth. This season is on pace to supply the worst collective freshman pitching numbers in more than a decade, perhaps far longer. More than halfway home, only two starters, Jordan Montgomery and Kyle Freeland, are on pace to accumulate even average major-league starter value. This is the invisible price we pay for the concrete factories that have helped players like Judge, Bellinger and friends to become overnight stars. Without a sample of work to rely on, new pitchers have had little beyond era adjustment and abstraction to base their reputation. They don’t have down years to be explained away, just bad (short) careers. The starting pitching pool is beyond watered down. When guys like Bartolo Colon, Edwin Jackson, Matt Cain and a slew of pitchers with very little experience above Double-A have jobs in the majors, it’s startling to say the least. What we’re seeing now is starters being rushed and prematurely promoted because teams’ are so desperate for starters. Washington’s rookie starter today is another example of a pitcher that doesn’t belong and we’re going to attack that rather than back it. If we lose here, so be it because we’ll get it back with interest at a later date
Once a candidate to go in the top few picks of the 2014 Draft, Erick Fedde underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL just days’ before the start of the draft. Owing to his considerable talent and the Nationals’ willingness to gamble on injured higher-end talent in the draft, Fedde still went 18th overall and signed for a little over $2.5 million, about $365,000 over the slot value. Fedde made his pro debut in the summer of 2015 in short-season A-ball, and the Nationals have moved him, giving him at least a half-dozen starts at each level of the minors up to Triple-A. He spent much of this May and June throwing out of the bullpen in preparation for a potential MLB stretch run role there, but was moved back into the Triple-A rotation at the beginning of the month as Washington’s starting pitching depth eroded.
Aside from already being 24 and not having pitched a ton as a pro or truly conquered the high-minors due to the role yo-yo, there’s little to nitpick with Fedde that you can’t nitpick with any prospect. He sits in the low-to-mid-90s with heavy life on the fastball, topping out as high as 97. His slider can get a little slurvy, but at its best it’s a two-plane breaker with tricky late movement. As with nearly every pitching prospect, the third pitch—here it’s the change—could use some further development. Fedde also implemented a curveball separate from his slider this season, and it plays as a fringe-average offering immediately.
The risk factors here are obvious: 2016 represented Fedde’s first full pro season and the Nationals have already toyed with the idea of a relief conversion. Essentially, he’s a two-pitch pitcher and two-pitch pitchers inevitably end up in the pen. Most of your typical durability and pitch selection concerns do apply here too. Fedde was headed for a placement somewhere on the back of the midseason top 50 before Washington moved him to the pen, where he didn’t particularly stand out even if the makings of a pretty good fastball/slider late-innings guy are there. Given his advanced age, it raised just enough uncertainty about the future profile that he fell off the list.
There isn’t a ton to see here with Fedde, at least insofar as his debut is widely expected to be a one-and-done affair for the time being. The Nationals have jerked him around a bit between the rotation and bullpen in the high minors, and he’s only four starts into a return to the former role. He threw 71 pitches in his most recent outing, which caps his potential to work deep into this one. Fedde is not major-league ready. In fact, he’s not even close.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Cincinnati at Miami
Play: Miami -109
I realize that Daniel Straily has not pitched well of late while Luis Castillo has given up just 14 hits in the 17 innings spanning his last 3 starts. However, these two pitchers are now facing their former teams today and that should bring out the "best" in both of them. The thing is that Strailly's "best" has proven to be much better than Castillo's "best" and I am happy to fade the line move here. The Marlins opened up as a sizable favorite in this game and are now down around a pick'em price range in this game. Keep in mind Castillo has a 5.29 ERA in his last 3 starts so even though he hasn't been getting hit a lot he has been giving up big hits. Also, the Reds are 0-3 in his last 3 starts and Cincinnati also enters this game with a 2-14 mark since the All Star break. The Reds are simply not a very good ball club while the Marlins have won 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9 games. Also, Miami has won 13 of its last 18 games against teams with a losing record. Straily has a 2.82 ERA at home this season and the Marlins have won 9 of their last 10 home games versus the Reds. More of the same Sunday.
BRANDON LEE
Reds vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8½
I like the pitching matchup in this one and we are getting a high total here due to the fact that neither of these starters are big names. The fact that almost every ticket being bet on this total is on the over and yet it's went from 9 to 8.5 tells you we are on the right side of this one. Miami's Daniel Straily has a 2.82 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 11 home starts and I've been really impressed with Reds starter Luis Castillo. He's 1-4 with a 4.05 ERA, but he's had a brutal slate of opponents in his first 7 big league starts. He's facedboth the Nationals and Dbacks twice, as well as the Brewers, Rockies and Yankees. He's not allowed more than 4 runs in any start and has an impressive 45 strikeouts in 40 innings.
JOHN MARTIN
Pirates vs. Padres
Play: Under 8½
This total has been set too high today between the Pirates and Padres. We have two starting pitchers who have been dominant against the opposing lineups in the past. Gerrit Cole is 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in four previous starts against the Padres. Clayton Richard is 1-1 with a 0.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in three previous starts against the Pirates. The UNDER is 9-0 in Pirates last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Pirates last 28 games overall. The UNDER is 14-5 in Cole's last 19 starts. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
DAVE PRICE
Pirates vs. Padres
Play: Pirates -1½
The Pittsburgh Pirates will be hungry for a victory today after losing 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. Now they have their ace going today to get them back in the win column. Gerrit Cole has gone 5-1 with a 3.04 ERA in his last 8 starts. Cole is 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. San Diego. Clayton Richard is 5-11 with a 5.37 ERA in 21 starts for the Padres, and 4-6 with a 5.50 ERA in 11 home starts. Richard hasn't been able to get anyone out recently, going 0-3 with a 9.86 ERA and 2.42 WHIP in his last 3 starts.